Thursday, March 13, 2014

Don't Act Like the Invasion is Over

Pro-Russian militias are fanning out across Crimea to observe all transportation links that enter the peninsula. Which illustrates that Russia does not yet control Crimea.

Crimea is not quite lost yet, if pro-Russian militias are still securing transportation links:

On the roads, at the train stations and the airport, a ragtag militia of pro-Russian forces is gradually squeezing the links that connect Crimea to the rest of Ukraine.

They are a mixture of civilians wearing red armbands, Cossacks and policemen loyal to the new pro-Russian regime in the breakaway region.

They are there to protect what they believe is now all-but formally Russian territory from the "right-wing extremists" who took power in Kiev last month.

This story seems odd if you think that Russia has already conquered Crimea. But Russia has not occupied Crimea.

What Russia did is seize the main transportation and political centers on the peninsula that will allow them to conquer Crimea once the order is given for major Russian forces in Sevastopol and at the Kerch Strait to move out and assert control.

The militias with Russian special forces and mercenaries (contract soldiers) blending in with the locals are the forces that have spread out. But they are only a little over 10,000, it seems. They besiege Ukrainian military posts where 15,000 Ukrainian troops (mostly support people rather than combat troops) are holed up and they are still cutting off links to the main part of Ukraine.

I like to emphasize this because I don't want people assuming Russia has already won and so there is no point in opposing Russia. Do nothing and eventually Russia will win.

So this is a good sign:

Ukraine accused Russian forces in Crimea of firing on one of its reconnaissance planes from an armored personnel carrier on Thursday, close to the isthmus [at Armyansk] that joins the Black Sea peninsula to mainland Ukraine.

It's good that Ukraine is running recon flights over Crimea. I think Ukraine should be flying more over Crimea. It's their territory and they have every right.

The Ukrainians should especially do this with resupply missions either by helicopters or aircraft parachute drops. Keep those Ukrainian military posts still holding out ready to outlast the Russians if they don't want to fight to conquer Crimea.