So China will soon gain the ability to conquer Taiwan?
According to a report by the China Post, a Taiwan English-language newspaper, the Ministry of National Defense said in a report that mainland China’s increasingly strong military will be capable of launching an attack against the island republic as soon as 2020.
What's with this "soon" stuff? China has the ability to invade now--if it wishes to pay the price and risk war with America.
Time and the cost to regain control can soften and then eliminate China's insistence that controlling Taiwan is a core interest. Which is one reason why China has said that the status quo is not acceptable and that Taiwan must make steps to joining China if it is to avoid invasion.
So buying time can work. China could decide that they don't really want Taiwan as badly as they once did.
And until then, China can continue to decide that taking Taiwan isn't worth the price China might have to pay in order to win.
Right now, China has to consider that the price could include America and Japan joining with Taiwan to fight the invasion.
In time, China might believe that they can delay our intervention long enough to defeat Taiwan.
Taiwan itself--even if they can't defeat an invasion--has a role in making the price of a Chinese victory over Taiwan too high for China to pay. Finland remains independent from Russia, after all, despite the imbalance of power and past Russian control of that territory.
As Ukraine's inability to deter Russia shows, that ability to inflict an unacceptable price might include the need for nuclear weapons. But maybe not. An invasion by air and sea is a difficult operation. Taiwan could with conventional weapons alone make the cost of victory for China too high to pay--even if America lacks the strength to intervene in time--for the time it takes for China to lose interest in controlling Taiwan.
Heck, the Taiwanese might want to throw Khazakhstan under the bus by trying to get Peking to look inland.
UPDATE: Thanks to Mad Minerva for the link.
I just get frustrated when people say Taiwan is doomed because China is growing so powerful. If Taiwanese believe that, Taiwan might be doomed.
But if Taiwan holds their ground, a China that today feels it needs Taiwan but can't conquer the island because of the cost can tomorrow become a China that merely wants Taiwan yet won't consider force an option. Then, Taiwan could lower their guard (and defense spending) without fearing conquest or the loss of their democracy.
