Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Cover Story?

I tend to doubt that air strikes on Syria's chemical weapons depots would eliminate the threat of proliferation to hostile elements. More agents would be left vulnerable to theft in the aftermath of an attack than would be lost to theft or sale with Syrian security intact. But preparing for such an attack would be great cover for an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel is reportedly thinking about attacking Syrian chemical stockpiles:

Israel has asked Jordan twice in the last two months for a green light to attack chemical weapons facilities in Syria, according to a report by journalist Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic.

As I've noted before, it would be hard to hide the launch of an aerial armada to strike Iran. Even if you can substitute other assets for planes, substitutes don't eliminate the need for a lot of planes to attack.

I've speculated that an attack on Hezbollah would be a convenient excuse to launch a lot of planes, many of which would then fly on to attack Iran.

Plus, if Israel wants to neutralize Hezbollah before hitting Iran, that would rule out using a war with Hezbollah as a cover operation. Or perhaps not, if concurrent operations are assumed. I thought Israel might want to fight one war at a time, but that is not based on wanting to use Iron Dome against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. Iron Dome is worthless against Iranian long-range missiles.

But now we have a Syria scenario to consider for the cover operation. Consider that Jordanian permission implies Israeli use of Jordanian air space. And if Israeli aircraft have access to Jordanian air space, they could fly on to Iran through Iraqi air space, going through Jordan or eastern Syria, to strike their targets. Israeli refueling aircraft could extend aircraft range if they can fly over eastern Jordan.

You can't really hide a big air operation. You have to assume that somebody will be watching Israeli air bases and can signal Iran with news that 2 or 3 sh*t loads of planes are taking off. So Israel does need a cover story for why all those planes are taking off. Like I've noted before, hiding isn't usually possible. But letting someone believe they see what they think they are seeing is possible.

Besides, NATO and Turkey seem to be leaning forward more on Syria and their chemical arms. Why would Israel seek to relieve NATO and Turkey of this worry when Israel has worries that nobody else seems willing to tackle?