Russia is so reset that their plan to buy 4 large French amphibious warships includes basing them in the fleets that need them the least! Recall that Russia said that they'd base them in the Pacific and Northern fleets. And France pretends to believe them.
Basing a couple in the Northern Fleet only makes sense if Russia needs to support an overland thrust into NATO member Norway (which only makes sense to support the Northern Fleet sortie to interrupt NATO's sea lines of communication in the Atlantic between North America and Europe).
And even Japan is downgrading their defenses of Hokkaido Island, which they no longer think is threatened by Russia, in favor of beefing up island defenses in the south in case China gets aggressive. As I noted above, the Black Sea will definitely host a Mistral or two.
Well, it isn't just Georgia that is worried about this arms sale. Our Baltic NATO allies are worried, too:
On Monday, Lithuania's defense minister described the sale as a "big mistake," and warned it could establish a precedent. Georgia, an aspiring NATO member that fought a brief war with Russia in 2008, is also concerned.
While I think the chances that Russia would decide to directly challenge NATO by striking Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are far less than the chance Russia will have another go at Georgia, the fact is that the most likely missions for Mistral-type warships are in the Black Sea and in the Baltics, where Russia could use them to support their Kaliningrad enclave or attack the Baltic states or Poland in support of an invasion.
So while Russia promises to base expensive foreign warships in fleets that have no use for them, expect them to show up in the Black and Baltic Seas.
Much like our New START agreement, the French are spinning this sale as a means of buying reset with Russia rather than reflecting an actual reset of Russia's views of the West.
We'll see if this is a valid plan or just a sad joke.
