Friday, December 03, 2010

Sword and Shield

North Korea will strike South Korea again. The South Koreans are convinced of this and history backs this assumption. When North Korea does this, South Korea will escalate in turn, using aircraft as I thought they would this last crisis:

Kim Kwan-jin, a retired general, was speaking at a parliamentary meeting confirming him as new defense minister, a day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said North Korea threatened the region and the world.

"If there are further provocations, we will definitely use aircraft to bomb North Korea," Kim said when asked how he would respond to another attack after last week's North Korean bombardment of an island near their disputed border, killing two South Korean marines and two civilians.

So the ball will quickly be back in North Korea's court. Do they escalate? Do they understand that if a crisis escalates to general war that North Korea will lose--and possibly be destroyed as a political entity?

They'd best consider that possibility because, contrary to what I assumed, China does not seem to be opposed to a unified Korea in a situation where South Korea absorbs the north the way West Germany absorbed East Germany:

Recently released (via Wikileaks) U.S. diplomatic messages revealed that Chinese officials, despite their public support for North Korea, were very unhappy with how North Korea was being run, had told North Korean leaders many times, and only showed public support for North Korea for political reasons (to make North Korean officials more likely to listen to Chinese advice, and  to justify to the Chinese people aid and support supplied to North Korea.) In China, it's no secret that North Korea is a nightmare situation; a poverty-stricken police state that, if nothing else, makes Communist China look like a paradise. In the leaked documents, the Chinese admitted that, if North Korea collapsed, they would go along with South Korea stepping in and uniting the country.

Publicly, China is a staunch defender of Pyongyang. Funny enough, it could be China that overthrows the North Korean government. While they'd accept a united Korea under Seoul, I imagine they'd rather have a less pyschopathic friendly regime controlling the north as a preferred option.

When North Korea attacks South Korea again and South Korea strikes back with air attacks, will China urge pro-Chinese elements to stage a coup if Peking believes North Korea's kooks are about to escalate in turn by striking across the DMZ land border and risk general war?

Given North Korea's 50 years of rhetoric, it would be humorous if China is the actor to kill the Pyongyang regime.