North Korean official news agency KCNA issued the threat as South Korea prepared for firing drills on Yeonpyeong island near a disputed maritime border with the North for the first time since November's exchange of artillery fire.
"The strike will play out a more serious situation than on November 23 in terms of the strength and scope of the strike," KCNA said.
A leading South Korean defense analyst said he doubted the North would carry out its threat, which rattled financial markets, and South Korea's Defense Ministry said the exercise planned for December 18-21 would go ahead.
Will North Korea carry out the threat? This is important because South Korea is in no mood to back down in the face of North Korean threats. So North Korea will be in the position of having to back up their threat or back down.
As I've mentioned before, it may depend on whether North Korea's leadership knows it would lose any militarized crisis that escalates to major hostilities or beyond--with regime change likely if a clash escalates to general war. Further, even if they know that the above is true, can the North Korean leaders back down from the aggressive stance they've taken given how much they've invested in making South Korea back down in the past? Or do the North Koreans believe that some semi-mystical moral superiority of North Koreans will more than make up for South Korea's material wealth and conventional military superiority? Heck, do the North Koreans believe massive use of low-tech chemical weapons will be the key to winning any confrontation that escalates to war?
There are many reasons that North Korea would back down from the brink of war--if Western-educated leaders were calling the shots in Pyongyang.
With the nutballs (from my point of view) running the show in Pyongyang, Lord knows what they will do when South Korea carries out live-fire exercises over the next few days.
UPDATE: We have warned the North Koreans that they have no reason to object to South Korean exercises, but we are worried about the potential for escalation:
"South Korea has the right to self defense, it has a right to exercise its military as it sees fit," said P.J. Crowley. "Northing that South Korea is planning is in anyway threatening to North Korea, and there's no justification for North Korea taking any action what-so-ever, should South Korea decide to proceed with this scheduled live exercise."
Thursday, Marine General James Cartright, vice chairman of the U.S. military Joint Chiefs of Staff, voiced worry of a potential chain reaction of firing and counter-strikes, if the drill is misunderstood and Pyongyang reacts violently.
Yeah, if the North Koreans believe that any signs of South Korean determination can be shattered with just a little more violence, escalation to war could be the end result.
But what choice does South Korea have? Back down and be the perpetual whipping boy for North Korea? A North Korea that will eventually have nuclear weapons? A North Korea that might then use those weapons to blackmail the region for money to come back from the brink of collapse and survive as a nice little psycho regime for decades to come? The exercises are surely a risk. But the risk of backing down to North Korea's threats and violence seems riskier to me.
Weather seems like it will delay the exercises.
