Taiwan might consider the “Hezbollah deterrent.” A large number of conventionally-armed rockets and shorter-range ballistic missiles distributed around the country could pose to China the same kind of threat of massed missile attacks that Beijing now presents to nations along its periphery. A distributed arsenal of rockets and missiles would be extremely difficult for China to neutralize. Moreover, relatively simple precision-guidance technology could dramatically increase the effectiveness of these weapons. A barrage of missiles could play havoc with the PLA’s airfields, naval bases and communications infrastructure. Taiwan could add to its defensive potential by also deploying relatively low-cost armed unmanned aerial systems, the potential of which Hezbollah is also exploring.
Taiwan needs the proverbial “out-of-the-box” approach to its defense. Trying to buy or build a traditional conventional defense is becoming nearly impossible. As China invests more of its great wealth in a high-end military, Taiwan should consider going low-tech.
I've certainly written that the balance of forces in the Taiwan strait is indeed shifting to China and at some point, Taiwan needs to do more than just try to build up their forces to buy time for America to intervene. But this alternative to that clear problem is ridiculous and a recipe for Taiwan's defeat.
Basing Taiwan's defense strategy on Hezbollah is folly. Hezbollah has no need to defend the land it stands on other than for the purpose of inflicting casualties on Israeli troops that attack them. Taiwan must defeat the Chinese to hold their country.
Hezbollah can retreat secure in the knowledge that Israel does not want to own southern Lebanon. And if Israel did, Hezbollah could still retreat north secure in the knowledge that Israel would not want to occupy all of Lebanon. Taiwan can't afford to let China get even a foothold on Taiwan, since that would just allow China to build a bridgehead for another round at a future date.
China, if it attacks Taiwan, will want to occupy Taiwan. That will be the purpose of the attacks--the Chinese won't be thinking about how they can stop the barrage of Taiwanese missiles while minimizing Chinese casualties. China will endure whatever pain Taiwan can throw at them and simply conquer the island if the only thing Taiwan can do is fling missiles. China's invasion task will be easier if Taiwan abandons high tech weapons that try to defeat the Chinese military approaching and landing on Taiwan, and just relies on the ability to inflict pain with missiles and armed UAVs.
Out of the box thinking? Don't dignify it with that type of description. This is nothing but a pine box to bury Taiwan in.
But by all means, if Taiwan gets Israel as their prime enemy, let's reconsider this fine suggestion.
UPDATE: Thank you to Mad Minerva for the link.
