Monday, July 12, 2010

Hearts and Minds

Winning minds is tougher than winning hearts in Afghanistan.

We are better than our Taliban and al Qaeda enemies in Afghanistan. And the people of Afghanistan largely know that:

“I’d say most people are just on the friendly side of neutral, and that’s really because they’re still hesitant to be too publicly supportive of us,” explains Captain Chandler. “They’re just not sure if we’re gonna be here. [T]hey still believe there’s a possibility we’re going to leave before the Taliban’s gone and, if we do, they know that the Taliban will be right back. And anyone who’s done anything to support us that can’t be explained away will be subject to retaliation. So, they try to walk a fine line.”

But while they would like us to win, they fear the Taliban will win. And it is far safer to avoid pissing off the head loppers than annoying us. That's the rational calculation. Eventually, as the so-called deadline of July 2011 passes without our troops leaving, it will be harder for the Taliban to argue they'll outlast us. We wouldn't have to battle that perception as much if our president hadn't initally raised expectations of early departure (and if Biden didn't speak of that and if Pelosi didn't offer hopes we'll bug out completely). But he won't bug out and risk a loss, I think.
 
Remember, we are in a battle for hearts and minds. The evil that our enemies demonstrate makes it easy to win the hearts of ordinary Afghan people. But that same evil makes it too dangerous to risk siding with us if they aren't pretty darned sure we'll be there long enough to win. Afghans are using their minds on this score.