Friday, July 02, 2010

Be Careful What You Wish For

China has gotten their trade agreement with Taiwan, which is being lauded as a step to reduce the chance of war in the Taiwan Strait.

But even President Ma of Taiwan knows that the agreement does not change the ultimate goal of China:

Ma said Beijing, which considers the island part of its territory, hoped to use the deal to further its aim of pulling the island closer into its orbit.

"There is no denying that Beijing has political motives to do this," he said during a press conference following the signing of the deal in China on Tuesday. He did not go into details.

If China makes too much money from economic ties to Taiwan, the hope is that China won't want to risk that profit.

Of course, if China makes too much money from economic ties to Taiwan, there is always the chance that China might decide that it can't risk rulers it doesn't control on Taiwan doing anything to risk that profit.

China could actually be persuaded to invade Taiwan because of those economic ties. And if all goes well from Peking's point of view, those economic benefits of trade ties will be too valuable for the Taiwanese to risk by fighting for anything as quaint as independence and freedom.

Recall, if you will, that in the latter half of the 1970s there was some talk about whether America would invade Saudi Arabia to take over the oil fields we relied on for our energy imports, should the Saudis cut off our oil again as they did in the aftermath of the 1973 October War.

Ma got what he wished. Now all of Taiwan had best be careful. I think there's a Chinese proverb to that effect, no?