Monday, July 19, 2010

Cannae in Kiev

Russia's problem in browbeating Ukraine into falling into Russia's orbit has long been that the easiest means of pressuring Ukraine--cutting off their energy supplies in winter--cuts of Russia's energy customers in Western Europe because the pipelines go through Ukraine. Russia is working on that problem.

The Germans have already inked a deal to let Germany avoid suffering for Ukraine's resistance to absorption back into mother Russia or for Eastern European resistance to Russian demands. This represents the northern envelopment of Ukraine (and Poland and the Baltic States).

And now, Russia has gotten Bulgaria to agree to the southern pincer that bypasses Ukraine and Poland, in particular, to get energy to Western Europe without going through Ukraine and Poland:

Bulgarian Economy and Energy Minister Traicho Traikov and Russian Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko signed a "road map" for accelerating South Stream in Bulgaria's Black Sea resort of Varna in a ceremony also attended by Bulgarian Premier Boyko Borisov, BTA said, but did not immediately provide any further details.
So now we have a double energy envelopment of Ukraine emerging, setting them up for a battle of annihilation. Poland, Estonia, Latwia, and Lituania are at least NATO members giving them a measure of protection.

But Ukraine is all by themselves. And Russia made sure that Ukraine could not join NATO any time soon.