Instead, he will maintain his 16-month pull-out promise using whenever he approves the withdrawal plan as the start of the clock and using whatever he defines as "residual presence" as the end point. That residual presence will likely represent several tens of thousands of troops, including combat troops. Although perhaps we'll get Kuwait to accept a couple brigades for a couple years as a hedge against Iranian meddling. And we'll keep a MEU afloat nearby. And maybe we'll leave stockpiles of weapons for several combat brigades in western Iraq and the Kurdish region, too, so we can quickly fly in troops.
And the withdrawal plan will likely focus on implementing the status of forces agreement. With American forces withdrawing from the cities by summer 2009, any American casualties will be mostly traffic accidents and natural causes. MoveOn.org may scream for a complete withdrawal, but our public already has higher priorities.
But to get this happy scenario, the Iraqis have to agree to the status of forces agreement. After months of bickering over the details, the Iraqis have finally decided they'd like that agreement now:
Iraq's Cabinet on Sunday approved a security pact with the United States that will allow American forces to stay in Iraq for three years after their U.N. mandate expires at the end of the year, the government said.
The decision followed months of difficult negotiations and, pending parliamentary approval, will remove a major point of contention between the two allies.
The revered Sistani put his stamp of approval on it despite the clamor raised by Sadr and other pro-Iranian elements in Iraq. The Iraqis likely got a dose of reality this month about what America might be willing to do in the new year to support Iraq absent an agreement now.
Iraq still needs our support to win the war finally. And the Iraqis still need our presence to attempt to make some progress toward rule of law and the reduction of corruption sufficient to enable rule of law.
We still have a lot to do to cement victory in Iraq and much to do to exploit this victory to affect the region toward positive social, governmental, and economic developments. This is the smart path for the region to take, but it needs our help to gain some traction.
If we fail, another generation will one day face jihadis with nukes--assuming we can achieve some success this generation.
UPDATE: Iraq's parliament is scheduled to vote on the SOFA on November 24th, and prospects look good:
Iraqi lawmakers Monday began debate over a pact with the United States that will allow U.S. forces to remain for three more years, while an Iranian official close to that country's leadership praised the Iraqi Cabinet for approving the deal.
Note, too, that the Iranians have quickly adjusted to their failure to derail the pact by simply declaring victory.
