A Temporary Measure

The Pakistanis don't like our missile strikes on their territory to kill jihadis, but they seem willing to endure them for now. In the long run, such a strategy is not sustainable in my view since the enemy will adapt and the Pakistani public will pressure their government to resist these attacks.

I speculated that the attacks are a short-term measure to knock the jihadis back so they cannot attack us during the presidential transition period.

Pakistan's prime minister bolsters my thought with these comments:

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani sought to placate Pakistani lawmakers by telling them he expected the raids to stop when President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

"I think these things are happening because of this transition period," he said. "I am sure when the government of Sen. Obama is formed, attacks like these will be controlled."

Obama has not directly commented on the raids. But his comments on Pakistan before the election were more hawkish than his Republican rival, suggesting Gilani's hopes may be misplaced.

Gilani also denied speculation that the Pakistan government — which relies heavily on U.S. aid — may have agreed to the missile strikes privately while publicly condemning them.

I think Gilani has agreed to the strikes over the short term in order to get us past the transition period. The attacks will decrease in a few months not because Obama will end them but because they are not a long-term strategy to beat the jihadis inside Pakistan, but a short-term strategy to knock the jihadis off balance.