Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Who Wants What?

I tend to agree that President Obama will not make a fight over an immediate pull out from Iraq part of his 2009 agenda. The Iraqis certainly don't seem to be immensely worried yet:

"We don't expect any change to happen overnight or any hasty change in U.S. policy and commitment toward Iraq," Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Al-Arabiyah TV moments after Obama claimed victory over Republican John McCain.

But he acknowledged that Obama "will not have the same enthusiasm and momentum for this situation" in Iraq as Bush.

The foreign minister said Obama told Iraqi leaders earlier this year during meetings in Baghdad and Washington that "any decision that concerns Iraq would be taken after thorough discussions with the Iraqi government and field military leaders."

Salim Abdullah, spokesman for the largest Sunni parliamentary bloc, agreed.

"We are not concerned that he will take a unilateral decision to move troops quickly from Iraq," Abdullah told The Associated Press.

Some Iraqis, however, are eager to see an end to a U.S. military presence they consider foreign occupation. American officials insist the troops are here to defend the Iraqi people against terrorists.

Salah al-Obeidi, spokesman of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, said Wednesday that with Obama's victory, "we expect that big changes will take place."

The Sadrists are among the most outspoken opponents of the U.S.
military presence in Iraq.


Iraqis who hope to build a democratic Iraq want us to stay long enough to ensure victory.

Iraqis who want to establish a religious dictatorship (in this example a Shia dictatorship) want us to go so we don't interfere with their goals.

Fortunately, success in Iraq has made the pressure to get out of Iraq far weaker. Obama has room--if he wishes--to backtrack on his promises.

Still, were I the Iraqis I'd negotiate that status of forces agreement this month rather than wait. Why take chances?