I have repeatedly challenged this notion based on historical practice of domestic regime opponents using foreign help to change the regime and gain power. Why would Iran be unique? Heck, we aren't! Unless I'm mistaken about the Left's hope to promote defeat in Iraq to ride it to power.
Perhaps Iranians would rally to the government, but I've seen no evidence to back this assertion.
And now Strategypage, which has often written of an attack rallying Iranians to the mullahs (though recently I've noticed some hedging with statements that an attack would initially rally Iranians, admitting tacitly that this rally around the flag effect could be brief), writes of an actual poll of Iranians:
A recent opinion survey showed that 58 percent of Iranians would support a foreign invasion to overthrow the current religious dictatorship. However, nearly 70 percent would prefer a popular, but non-violent, revolution, like the one that tossed out European communist dictatorships in 1989-90. Worse, 92 percent do not approve of how their government operates. Only eleven percent oppose democracy, and 72 percent did not support the "Islamic Revolution" that has dominated the country for 28 years. Still, most Iranians are not willing to fight, knowing that the minority of Iranians who do support the government are armed and willing to kill Iranians that oppose them. The survey also showed that 78 percent of Iranians believe the country should have nuclear power, but only 46 percent believed they should have nuclear weapons.
I'd rather have an internal revolt, but if Iranians won't fight, we still have the problem of stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions. We may have no choice but to strike.
Remember, as I've said, just because the Iranian mullahs may sincerely believe that an American attack would solidify the position of the mullahs doesn't mean the mullahs are right.
Such a belief didn't work out so well for Saddam or Osama. Only ineffective use of force helps our enemies.
And finally, as I've often written, why should we draw any consolation from knowing that the Iranian people are really sad their mullahs nuked Charleston?
We must stop Iran.
