I suspect the Chinese realize that a growing sense of Taiwanese national identify bolstered by the deepening influence of democracy will make absorbing Taiwan difficult if it is delayed too long. In addition, as Taiwan is finally starting to bolster defenses, in 5-10 years when these weapons are absorbed, Taiwan may be too tough to quickly conquer before America, Japan, (and Australia? They are building a military for distant deployments) can intervene.
But many say that even if China could invade, they would not risk the pageant that Peking is creating for 2008. It will be their "coming out" party to demonstrate their strength and status as a rising power. The Chinese don't want to spoil the propaganda effect of staging a show with a global audience. Maybe after 2008, the Chinese will invade, but surely not before, this line of reasoning goes.
That pageant might not unfold as cleanly as Peking hoped back in the pre-blogging days when they won the right to hold the 2008 summer Olympics. The global audience is available to all:
Child labor. Forced abortions. Religious persecution. Jailed dissidents. Cultural cleansing in Tibet and ethnic cleansing in Africa.
For China, the run-up to next summer's Olympics in Beijing is looking like a marathon through a human-rights minefield.
It's been decades since the games focused on which athletes were faster or stronger. But the Olympics have not been this politicized since the U.S.-Soviet boycotts of the 1980s.
China sees a chance to wow the world as it hosts its first event watched by billions of people. The increasingly image-conscious country will measure success both with medals and whether the 2008 Olympics burnish its rising star. That gives activists, governments and celebrities with a cause an opportunity to influence policies they've long assailed.
If all of China's many political and environmental sins are scrutinized as much as this hints, the Chinese might get less net bad press by just conquering Taiwan before the Olympics. If the Olympics are cancelled or boycotted, there will be no troublesome inquiries about human rights or Tibet or pollution. And if the Chinese win, the display of raw power will quiet a lot of critics who fear opposing the Chinese.
We shall see. The Chinese will invade Taiwan at some point. If the Chinese believe they must have their 2008 pageant and wait until after the Olympics to address Taiwan, the Taiwanese must use the precious commodity of time to build up their defenses. And enjoy the show of activists bashing China over a long list of failings.
The Chinese could find that choosing theater over power was a mistake, garnering neither prestige nor Taiwan in the end.
