The Sunni middle class is leaving Baghdad, it seems. The New York Times concludes this is a sign of things going to Hell in Iraq.
Me, I figured that the exodus probably consisted of Sunnis who used to benefit from the Saddam regime. The Christian minority, too, benefitted from Saddam who offered them some protection from Moslem hatred:
Yet throughout the article there is no hint other than identifying one man is a Sunni about who is leaving. Given all the ink spilled by the press on the subject of civil war, you'd think that they might say which portion is going. Could it be Sunnis? The article hints this might be so given that it mentions that Shia anger after the Samarra bombing is fueling the fear that propels leaving Iraq. So just how "ordinary" are these people? The fact that the family portrayed looks pretty well off might clue you into the fact that they had benefitted from Saddam's rule. Some might actually be former oppressers who deserve to worry after decades of face stomping orgies against the Shia and Kurds. But the Times wasn't curious enough to explore this angle.
And Strategypage does confirm that Sunnis are taking off:
Sunni Arabs are only 15-20 percent of the population. They used to be closer to 20 percent, but increasing numbers of Sunni Arabs have been fleeing the violence, and Iraq. Most missed are the middle and upper class Sunni Arabs who form the backbone of the Sunni Arab community, and the Iraqi economy and business community. Harassed by gangsters and terrorists, these Iraqis are giving up on the new Iraq, at least for now, and heading to nearby Arab nations or, for the most disenchanted, the West.
Like I wrote, it is important to recognize who is unhappy with Iraq' future. Well-off Sunnis are leaving or contemplating leaving Iraq. Given that the new Iraqi government is incorporating Sunnis into the government and not going on organized pogroms to get revenge for five centuries of abuse at the hands of the Sunnis, just who would flee now? Is violence in Baghdad new this year? Shouldn't Sunnis have been fleeing all along? Why is this a more recent trend?
The reason these Sunnis flee now is that these backers of the former regime of Saddam are probably losing hope that their killers can sweep them back into power with their campaign of terror and intimidation.
The fact that backers of the Baathists are now leaving Iraq is not a sign that we are losing. It is a sign that the enemy is losing. They see little hope of running things any time soon and are getting out of town before the new cops come around with war crimes and human rights violation charges in hand. They see that even Saddam is in the witness stand with his own life on the line and have no desire to follow him to the gallows.
So don't transform the fleeing Sunnis into poor oppressed victims. They are former neck-stompers who have given up on their dreams of continuing their neck-stomping. This is a good thing.
UPDATE: Instapundit, commenting on this post, rightly notes that those fleeing Iraq shouldn't all be lumped into the guilty category:
That's no doubt true for some. Others, though, are probably feeling pinched between pressure from the remaining holdouts (who, like guerrillas in general, put the most pressure on their own people) and fear of Shia retribution on a fairly undiscriminating basis. True, that hasn't happened yet, and probably won't, but I can understand why people wouldn't want to take their chances.
But still, the other two categories of those under pressure from the enemy to back the resistance and those who fear Shia retribution against all Sunnis show that these groups consider the Baathist and Sunni enemy are losing, too.
Consider the innocent Sunnis who are afraid of enemy pressure to support the insurgency. Surely they were afraid before, but they reacted to this fear by supporting the enemy--even if just passively. But now with the Baathists and Sunnis losing, it is no longer nearly as safe for these Sunnis to just give in to insurgent and terrorist demands for money, sanctuary, manpower, or information. So they leave in larger numbers.
And then there are those who simply fear Shia retribution. These people likely always feared Shia retribution. But as long as the insurgents looked like they might win, retribution would not happen. With the Sunnis and Baathists losing, these fearful Sunnis think they will lose all that stands between them and the official revenge campaign--however unlikely that may be. As Instapundit notes, it is not irrational to fear that. But the fact is, they do fear it now and are acting on the fear when in the past they did not.
For whatever of these three reasons the Sunnis are leaving, each certainly can be interpreted to mean that it is because the insurgency is losing and the Sunnis increasingly believe the insurgents are losing.
