The Department of Defense announced today that the 2nd Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, based in Schweinfurt, Germany, will not begin its deployment to Iraq in early May as scheduled.
Additional information about this unit, to include its revised deployment date in the rotation plan, will be announced as decisions are made.
The adjustment to the unit’s deployment was made as commanders assess the security situation on the ground in Iraq. Decisions about troop levels are conditions-based. In consultation with the Iraqi Government, commanders continue to assess the situation to ensure sufficient force levels to best support the Iraqi government.
This decision affects approximately 3,500 U.S. active duty soldiers and their families, but in the near-term will not affect the current number of U.S. troops in Iraq, which is numbering approximately 133,000.
The interesting thing is that at 3,500 troops each, our fifteen brigades total 53,500 troops out of the 133,000 in Iraq. In theory, we could withdraw completely from combat duties in Iraq and still have 79,500 military personnel in Iraq supporting Iraqi combat troops. In reality, we'd still need eight or ten combat brigades to watch the Iranians and protect our bases even with no combat missions other than convoy protection.
So "withdrawing from Iraq" in the short term could mean in practice a draw down of only about 25,000 troops out of our current strength of 133,000. Add in some support units that won't be needed as we are not in offensive combat missions, and getting down to under 100,000 will be about the limit, I think, until the Iraqi land forces can operate full spectrum against internal and external enemies.
We might get down to 50,000 in some years when our Air Force is the last remaining element to help the Iraqis, since their air force will take a lot longer to develop.
So remember that although Iraqis will stand up and we will stand down, this really only means in terms of combat missions. "Standing down" does not mean we will be walking out anytime soon.
UPDATE: This AP article notes that four more Army brigades scheduled to deploy by the fall could in theory have their movements cancelled. This would bring us down to 10 brigades and doesn't address what our Marine Corps' plans are. The article also notes that with this deployment we'd go down to about the 100,000 level in Iraq. All consistent with my speculation.
