Saturday, October 31, 2020

Is Turkey a Lost Cause or Just Temporarily Troubled?

Turkey under Erdogan clearly doesn't want to be a NATO ally. Can we endure him until NATO can save the relationship?

Turkey's S-400 acquisition from Russia is a middle finger directed at NATO:

A NATO ally should not acquire a major weapon system from the leading threat to the alliance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently brushed aside American concerns regarding the S-400, and a failure to respond assertively could leave Ankara and others with the impression that they can ignore Washington with few consequences.

Why Erdogan would do this when his relations with Russia are strained (with more strains to come in Syria) and when Turkey is stretched trying to regain influence in former Ottoman territory despite the opposition of those former subjects is mind boggling:

Are the Turks sending Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijan in the fighting with Armenia? Russia supports Armenia and has troops there. Turkey and Russia are already on opposite sides in Syria and Libya where Turkish-paid Syrians fight. Turkey is in a confrontation with fellow NATO member Greece at sea, And Turkey has pushed away once-ally Israel as well as alienating America enough to lose the F-35. Just how much foreign trouble does Erdogan want?  And can Erdogan cover the checks he is writing?

How do we signal our displeasure to punish Erdogan and ride out the troubles until Erdogan is gone and we can repair the relationship?

UPDATE: NATO states are tiring of Turkey's behavior:

The United States is pushing NATO countries to work with Turkey in hopes of healing divisions that have seen Ankara move closer to Russia, but at least one of those allies is bracing for more turmoil.

Greece in particular. But France isn't happy. And those aren't the only ones concerned about Erdogan.