So this article discussing difficulties is nothing new. But the author misses the point when he writes:
The ultimate question, of course, is once Israeli planes have flown back, won't Iran be able to repair the damage and accelerate the nuclear programme? Or does Israel assume that the U.S. will pick up where they left and start a long-term war with Iran?
That is not the ultimate question. If Israel fears Iran will nuke Israel (or even if Israel just fears that Iran going nuclear will provoke a number of Arab states to go nuclear, raising the risk that some nutball will get a nuke to "solve" the Israel problem), Israel may strike even if Iran immediately begins to rebuild.
One, it appears that our four-day strike against Iraq in Desert Fox at the end of 1998 did way more than set back Iraq's nuclear program by a year--which is what we said at the time was our assumption (if my memory serves me on that specific point, although in general we said we only hoped to "erode" or "degrade" Iraq's WMD capabilities). We apparently crippled it enough for Saddam to be unable to resurrect it until sanctions could be lifted. So perhaps Israel could do more than we think.
But if we were willing to simply buy a year of time striking Iraq which could not have destroyed America even if Iraq got and used an atomic weapon, what calculation do you think Israel would make regarding Iran when Iran's ruler dreams of erasing Israel from the map--when Israel's portion of the map is pretty small?
Israel will think that buying half a decade of time--or even a year--of nuclear-free Iran is well worth the risk. Even if Israel has no hope of continuing the war on their own for a more lasting solution and even if Israel has no hope of America picking up the ball, Israel can always hope that maybe the horse will sing.
Oh, and the author is missing another point: what does he mean when he says the US will "start" a long-term war with Iran? Iran seems to believe they are at war with us already even if they aren't actively shooting in the open right now. From capturing our embassy and holding our diplomats hostage to plotting to plant bombs in Washington, D.C., Iran seems very much at war with America already.
In the long run, we need a new Iranian government that either doesn't want nuclear weapons (either to use or just to shield their terrorism and aggression) or is someone we won't worry will use nuclear weapons. But in the short run, are you really willing to risk what will happen if Iran gets nuclear weapons? Are you really ready to face a Middle East with nuclear weapons deployed in a triangle bounded by Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan, and many points inside? I dare say domestic debates over fracking and pipelines from Canada won't seem quite so debatable in that future.
