U.S. military planners have discovered that China's current arsenal of non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles could probably knock out five of six major American air bases in Japanese and South Korea. Oops. To make matters worse, this has become an issue as North Korea stumbles towards political collapse, and China indicates that it will assume control in the north if that happens. South Korea believes it should move north to deal with a collapse, and this plan is becoming a contentious issue with China.One, as an aside, as the article notes, this capability applies to a Taiwan scenario, too. People really need to get over that "million-man swim" dismissal of Chinese capabilities to invade Taiwan.
Back on point, do the Chinese really believe they should move down to the DMZ in case of state collapse in North Korea? Do the Chinese really think we'd sit still for that? I understand that China does not want a unified Korea essentially run by Seoul. That's why I figure partition is the best course in case of nation collapse up north.
And if the Chinese let their capabilities to strike our air bases guide their actions rather than considering what they should do, does Peking really think we'd just accept that blow and do nothing?
If North Korea collapses, South Korean forces will likely move north and do so more quickly than Chinese forces can move south if the collapse is sudden rather than anticipated (or caused?) by China. China might then believe they have to decide whether to coordinate the meeting in the middle with South Korea or launch a war begun with their missiles targeting American air bases in the region.
The Chinese need to be perfectly clear on this: even President Obama will fight back if China attacks us or South Korea. Let nobody be confused this round about whether South Korea is within our defense perimeter.
And this is no theoretical problem. I think the issue is moving up on the presidential daily briefing agenda, given that North Koreans are starting to act out on their fight or flight reflex:
The number of North Koreans defecting to South Korea has surged in recent years because of economic suffering in the North, with more than 10,000 defections over the past three years, South Korea's government said Monday.
About as many North Koreans have defected to the South since the end of 2007 as the number who had fled over the entire previous period since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, the Unification Ministry said in a statement. The overall total stands now at 20,050.
Ministry official Han Dong-ki said the rise in defections reflects North Korea's worsening economy.
No, it isn't because of the worsening economy. The economy has always been bad. And even during periods of starvation the refugee flow to the south hasn't been this great. In the past, Northerners stayed put despite the bad economy. What has changed is that the people are starting to lose their fear of the consequences of fleeing the bad economy.
Even more significant is that the fight reflex is being demonstrated--even if only in symbolic measures.
Yes, North Korea has been collapsing for a long time, really. So we have no way of knowing when their collapse reaches cataclysmic status and we hear news reports of Romania-style chaos. If China has its way, North Korea will adopt Chinese economic policies and reverse the collapse before it results in state collapse. But I'd bet on collapse if I had to wager money on the question.
Make sure China knows that we don't want all of North Korea; and that we won't let China get all of North Korea. Otherwise, we get a worst case scenario that nobody should want. The only value North Korea has is its strategic location. Do we really want to blunder into a war over that geographical black hole?
I hope everyone agrees that the answer is "no." I hope our diplomats are addressing this now urgent mission. Otherwise, North Korea will be the place where the next war begins.
UPDATE: More on the Chinese missile threat to our air bases near China.
