Tuesday, September 07, 2010

A Can Do Spirit?

It is commonly held that the Chinese leaders would never risk their comfortable lives and growing economy by risking war with America. But what if the Chinese leaders are changed?

“China’s military spending is growing so fast that it has overtaken strategy,” said Professor Huang Jing from the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. (He kindly let me quote his remarks.)

“The young officers are taking control of strategy and it is like young officers in Japan in the 1930s. They are thinking what they can do, not what they should do. This is very dangerous.

“They are on a collision course with a US-dominated system”.

Remember that the Chinese are building weapons that expand what they "can do" to us.

I did raise this issue of who gets to order the PLA into action five years ago.

It is important to judge the US-Chinese balance, but not necessarily the most important thing to consider. What do the Chinese believe the balance is? What if they simply believe we won't fight? Or what if they see worse alternatives to even losing a war with America?
 
And what if we don't even know who "they" are?