Thursday, September 16, 2010

The Winds Blowing from Iraq

Those who claim that democracy in Iraq is having no effect on the Middle East have an amazingly short time-frame to judge effects. And it ignores that our victory over Saddam and the initial revolt by the Baathists, al Qaeda, and Sadrists that we turned back by 2005 did ripple out from Iraq--in Lebanon's Cedar Revolution in spring 2005.

Movement for democracy there and elsewhere certainly halted as the Sammara Mosque destruction signalled the enemy surge of al Qaeda and Sadrist terror campaigns in Iraq in early 2006 that accelerated until we broke the back of enemy resistance in summer 2007. Iraq itself has slowly crawled back from the edge of darkness to build what could become a lasting democracy.

But perhaps the regional momentum is due to pick up again. Certainly, Lebanon is stuck between the winds of freedom and the counter-gales of despotism and terror:

A Western-backed alliance in Lebanon's government accused the militant group Hezbollah and its allies Wednesday of trying to take the country back to the days when Syria dominated this tiny Arab nation.

The alliance is struggling to maintain its political clout as Hezbollah and its patrons in Damascus gain strength in Lebanon. The March 14 coalition is named for a day of massive demonstrations in 2005 when millions turned out and forced Syria to leave Lebanon after nearly 30 years.

We can still achieve much more than "just" liberating Iraq from Saddam and even cementing democracy and rule of law inside Iraq. I'd wait a a decade or two before judging the example of Iraq to be a failure or not.

And in the meantime, strengthen the anti-Syrian, anti-Iranian, and anti-Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Who knows when the wind will shift again.