American power has kept Asia peaceful and Australia safe for the past 40 years.
Arguably these have been the best decades in Australia's history, and we will be very fortunate if American power continues working this way to keep Asia stable and Australia secure forever.
But that may not be possible. If China's economy keeps growing, its strategic and political weight will keep growing, too. China will exercise more power in Asia. That power must either be accommodated or resisted.
It should be unthinkable for a democratic nation like Australia to essentially side with China. But a Chinese rise in power looming over a relatively tiny Australia without confidence that we have the power and willingness to resist China makes such a calculation very conceivable.
I wrote that to maintain the balance of power in Asia, allies and potential allies must believe we make the difference in choosing between resistance to China and accommodation. And if we don't, we will see defections from our alliance structure. Call it a domino theory, or not; but while it is no iron rule, it is certainly true that a loss in our coalition will make it more likely for other members to weigh the power balance and choose accommodation with China over resistance at our side.
Japan, as I note in this related post, has apparently decided that American power can be counted on and is substantial enough to allow Japan to remain tied to our alliance rather than accommodate China.
We would be wise to make the calculations of allies very clear--alliance with America is reliable and effective. If we don't, Australia won't be the last country to have this debate.
