Oh ... Canada--Wait. What?

I think Canada needs an intervention. Not a military intervention. But an intervention of friends--perhaps the governors of American states that trade heavily with Canada--concerned about Canada's recent self-destructive behavior.

Canada's prime minister has stoked anti-Americanism for domestic political objectives. And now Carney wants to “own the MAGA” via the EU: 

International opportunism retains its attractions even among the polite and inoffensive. Mark Carney won election by distracting Canadians from the serial failures of his Liberal predecessor with his “elbows up” campaign against Donald Trump. ... Carney preferred to take his place on the international stage as an icon of liberal internationalism. Clearly his term as governor of the Bank of England only whetted his appetite for even greater standing in world affairs. Why waste one’s time repairing national health care, facing down Albertan separatists or (God help you) appeasing the Québécois, when you could bask in the acclaim of your Davos compadres?

Putin tried that strategy by elevating the post-Cold War neutered NATO into a looming enemy to hide Russia's appeasement of China in order to save Russia's Far East. Putin and Russians eventually believed that ridiculous claim and created rearming enemies in Europe.

I like Canada. I have Canadian relatives. I've been there a lot. But I think Canadians are off their government-subsidized meds. 

At least Canada won't face American invasion--oh, FFS, seriously, Carney?--as a consequence of their ridiculous claim. But Canada will not prosper on this path even if Carney faces no repercussions.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Accept No Substitute For POLARCOM?

America is stitching together a pseudo Polar Command from three combatant commands. Is this a case of when you start to establish POLARCOM, establish POLARCOM?

Is this good enough? 

U.S. Northern Command plans to sign an agreement with its European and Pacific counterparts to enhance coordination and close security seams in the Arctic, a strategically vital region where all three commands converge, U.S. officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

NORTHCOM’s Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, U.S. European Command’s Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, and U.S. Pacific Command’s Adm. Samuel Paparo will finalize the agreement, which aims to strengthen information sharing and ensure that adversaries cannot exploit the geographic boundaries among the commands.

Or do we need an actual POLARCOM instead of messing around with substitutes?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

A Real Lesson in Getting Distracted

Much is being made about Iran soaking up too much of our resources. This has long been an issue. And we have coped in the past. It is obviously not ideal. But that's reality. Russia really provides a lesson in focusing on one threat while other objectives deteriorate.

A global power must balance its military power globally to deal with many active and potential threats. Even a regional power has that problem: 

This happens fairly regularly. Washington dealt with it in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but perhaps a more instructive example of the dangers of sustained high-intensity warfare is Russia. The expectation of a short campaign in Ukraine became a prolonged drain on troops, munitions, industry and political attention. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh [from Armenia], fundamentally altering the balance of power in its near-abroad, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine did not cause either setback, but Russia’s prolonged concentration there appears to have reduced Moscow’s ability to prevent them. 

Russia has not coped despite a much more massive ammunition supply and weapons reserves. And Russia's Far East remains at risk. But hey, it will all be worth it once Putin defeats Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself in Ukraine. 

America has coped in the past and is coping now. Again, not ideal. But we are hardly helpless. And we will always have to make tradeoffs. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Surely Russia Isn't Stupid Enough To Draw NATO Closer to Its Nuclear Bastion

I'll stop calling you Shirley, but I can't believe even Russia would be so epically stupid by stoking a crisis at Norway's Svalbard Islands, thinking Russia can exploit the complicated legal status that includes a large Russian settlement there. 

It seems unlikely that Russia would attempt to test NATO’s Article V "all-for-one" provision at Norway’s Svalbard Islands:

For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. 

Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense. 

NATO absolutely should and would respond. And drawing NATO forces close to Russia’s SSBN bastion seems like an epic level of stupid even for Moscow when prudence right now argues for NATO avoiding a test of Russia's paranoia line there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Victory Through Air Power

 

Each side has hopes that it can yet win on the ground. Russia with masses of new men from a reservist mobilization; and Ukraine with improved offensive tactics exploiting ground drones being tested on the battlefield. Yet each side seemingly puts greater hope on Victory Through Air Power as each wages strategic bombing campaigns with long-range drones and missiles. This winter we will see if the latter route to victory can work for either side. And in the spring and summer of 2027, we may see the ground efforts should the air campaigns fail to produce decisive results.

Head on over to Substack for the essay. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Standing On the Edge of Freedom

In case you missed it on Substack: Honey! I Shrunk the Air Force!

In case you missed it on Substack: Achieving Surprise on a "Transparent" Battlefield

In case you missed it on Substack: Reviewing a Minimally Manned Infantry Fighting Vehicle

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Decimate the UN Bureaucracy (Ten Times)

The United Nations isn't useless. But it should be cut down to a third of its budgetary size to prevent the body from being used to wage war against the West by other means--while the West pays for it.

This is about right:

[T]he United Nations has long ceased to be a forum for international peace – if it ever was – and is today governed by brutal realpolitik. ... When [Poland's foreign minister] speaks of punishing Russia for its aggression, he is channelling the word and spirit of the UN charter, which promises ‘to uphold justice and respect for treaties and international law’ and ‘reaffirm faith in … the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small’. But the United Nations is, today, no place for such talk. 

I don't mind the UN being a place to blast America. It comes with the territory. And it is good to have a place for countries with grievances to blow off steam. If they believe that is equivalent to action, great. I once (more than two decades ago) thought a League of Democracies would be an alternative to the UN. The urge to see that as our salvation persists. But let's not pretend democracies are an automatic source of support for America.

At the risk of digressing, I do see one way such a parallel international body hosted by Taiwan could be useful. 

The UN is now a place for enemies to organize anti-Western activities under the guise of cultural, humanitarian, educational, or other reasons--with the West paying the bill--and should be ended. Drop the UN to a core of functions that eliminates the non-diplomatic and peacekeeping functions. And if we choose to have non-core functions under the UN, build a new UN complex in Kinshasa (to pick a Third World city at random) and see how eager people are for that duty station. Why not with global Internet capabilities?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Seeking the Goldilocks Standard of Support For Taiwan

Should America have a more explicit set of conditions for assisting Taiwan to prevent China from thinking we believe Taiwan is strong enough to fight without us? Maybe. But don't get carried away.  

What happens after deterrence over Taiwan fails? 

Much of the American debate over Taiwan concentrates on preventing China from using force in the first place. Strategic ambiguity is defended because uncertainty is supposed to complicate Chinese calculations while discouraging unilateral actions by Taipei. Strategic clarity is advocated because an explicit American commitment might convince Beijing that an attack cannot succeed without bringing the United States into the war. Chen approaches the problem from another direction: deterrence can also be weakened if Washington inadvertently signals that its willingness to act depends on Taiwan satisfying an escalating series of demands. 

Um [scratching my head and answering with an uptalk], war? 

Which is why I hate planning for deterrence rather than victory. 

How we fight will depend on how far along we are on the crawl-walk-run continuum for ground force readiness and cooperation with Taiwan.

Still, ambiguity about American intentions also serves to rein in Taiwan so they don't drag us into a war with China by initiating combat in a crisis, sure we will jump in to bail them out.

Strategy is hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Useful Idiots in a Circular Firing Squad

As we react to Russia's increasingly bold campaign of sabotage in Western countries, let's ponder the brilliance of China's far more effective campaign that relies on Western stupidity that pretends to save the world.

The Chinese must wake up each morning and thank Mao for having enemies who are morons:

The UK is deindustrializing, and has tied itself to China in more ways than one due to its foolish NetZero energy policies. 

And not just Britain. Europe more generally. And too many parts of America, too.

The Chinese exploit fear of climate change and a desire to be the planet's savior to downgrade any energy source but solar and wind. With the plausible supporting argument of reducing reliance on Middle East fossil fuels.

This transition to "renewables" increases costs of electricity resulting from the glorious "transition" to a "renewable" future is crippling Britain's industry (and Europe's, more broadly). It reduces the resilience of the electrical grid. This also allows China to earn lots of money to produce the wind and solar equipment that fuels the "transition." And this changes Western energy reliance on Middle East fossil fuels to Chinese solar panels and windmills.

One must give the Chinese Communist Party a grudging salute for their brilliance. 

Tip to InstaPundit. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from this article.

Jointness Should Cut Out the Middleman, No?

In a joint force, why is the Army practicing moving artillery by air to conduct brief artillery barrages? Why not just have the Air Force bomb the target, which is an Air Force job to support the Army.

This is somewhat confusing:

The U.S. Army demonstrated how M119 105 mm howitzers can be rapidly inserted, fired and repositioned by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters during a September 10 live-fire gun raid in Hawaii, according to imagery released by DVIDS on September 18, 2026. The exercise highlights how air-mobile artillery can deliver fire support from temporary positions while reducing dependence on roads and limiting exposure to drones, counter-battery sensors and long-range surveillance. [emphasis in original]

I mean, get ground force artillery raids and shoot-and-scoot--by land. But why use an aircraft to move an artillery piece to fire at the enemy when the Air Force could just bomb the target with one of its aircraft? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Don't Be Hasty in Drawing Univeral Lessons From Ukraine

Drones have an unusually large effect in the Winter War of 2022 because of the static nature of the front.

Drones got rushed into service in the artillery shell shortage as the only type of ammunition that Ukraine could get. First dropping grenades and then suicide drones. They have proven crucial to slowing down the Russians to a crawl and inflicting heavy casualties. But their role cannot just be cut and pasted into other armies.

Seriously, a static front amplifies drone capabilities: 

In parts of the thousand-kilometer front line, there are bunkers that have been in use for months or years. In quiet parts of the front, drone teams spend most of their time doing surveillance, with the occasional call for an attack drone. When new operators gain enough experience in their quiet zones, they are sent to more active areas to do their thing.

I've felt that way for a long time. Get the front moving and drone teams don't have their sanctuary to learn their trade and to simply survive under cover and concealment. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Winter War of 2022 Ponders Life After War

 

How will Russia and Ukraine react to peace? Will it be peace or a ceasefire to reload? And will both Russia and Ukraine follow the same war or peace path? Putin (and many Russians) only saw Ukraine as the priority target that would provide the most bang for the buck. It is a large country that if captured pushes Russia’s borders far west and secures the northern shores of the Black Sea. Ukraine appeared to Putin to be ripe for plucking, eager to display their Inner Russian nature for Holy Mother Russia’s loving embrace back into the family of Slavic peoples. But after cold reality has battered Russian delusions, could Russia look elsewhere for easier targets for now?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Life Within the PLA Weapons Engagement Zone

In case you missed it on Substack: North Korea's Floating Speed Bump?

In case you missed it on Substack: Expanding Combined Arms Warfare

In case you missed it on Substack: Balancing Global Interests

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

A-Whacks Will Fly!

See? My ideas aren't all stupid!

The Air Force wants it cargo planes to be adapted for counter-UAS missions: 

The U.S. Air Force is looking to turn its cargo planes into launch platforms for drone swarms. ...

The goal is to transform cargo planes into “adaptive, force-multiplying launch platforms” that provide “a rapidly deployable swarm for base security,” according to an Air Force Small Business Innovation Research solicitation. 

These planes will protect air bases but also escort other transports and tankers in flight, in addition to being able to control UAV swarms.

It's the A-Whacks plane!! Come on Air Force, use my nickname! I ask for so little. 

As an aside, it's so cute that the Army thinks the Air Force will prioritize its cargo planes to move Army units.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article.

Saudi Arabia's High Wire Juggling Act

Is Saudi Arabia's alliance with Turkey and Pakistan just keeping rivals inside the tent pissing out?

I've noted that Saudi Arabia is in a precarious position:

Arab states in the Middle East can't be sleeping as well at night as they look around and see rival Moslem powers ringing the Middle East vying for the loyalties of Arab Moslems.

Rival non-Arab powers like Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan ring the Arab Gulf region. And Israel, of course.

Not to mention internal threats from a Shia minority and Sunni Islamists who want the Saudi government to be more overtly and aggressively Islamist.

Saudi Arabia is wealthy but militarily weak. It has "target" written all over it. Lots of high-tech weapons. But without hired contractors could the planes fly or fight? Yes, Egypt is potentially a sword to help the Saudis. But Egypt is broke and needs lots of subsidies to have an impact on the balance.

Which makes me wonder a couple things. Is Saudi Arabia's alliance this year with Pakistan (already an ally) and Turkey an effort to get rivals outside the Saudi tent to come inside to isolate Iran rather than risk an alignment of non-Arab states against Saudi Arabia?

And is this alliance a means to stiff-arm Saudi normalization of relations with Israel or a means to enable restored relations and joining the Abraham Accords by highlighting a Moslem counter-weight?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Reality Shocks the Air Force

How is it possible for the Air Force to be "concerned" about Reaper losses over Iran when that surely is the expected outcome?

The Air Force wants to replace the Reaper drone:

Following steep losses of the General Atomics MQ-9A Reaper in recent combat operations against Iran, Air Force officials are accelerating efforts to replace the venerable drone with a new unmanned aircraft at a price of $10 million each.

Seriously, the losses are from the "Well Duh" files.

The drones excelled in operations against insurgents who lacked air defenses. It cannot be a surprise that air defense can shoot down Reapers. 

Further, drones are sent into areas we don't want to risk pilots. No doubt losses would be lower if we planned missions the same as crewed aircraft.

Finally, the answer isn't another expensive drone. Aim for semi-disposable, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Use All of the Kill Chain to Defend Against Enemy Attacks

Shooting down a missile when it is getting close is great. But you need to knock out their targeting assets, too. You need point defense. You need the means to hit the incoming missile earlier in the flight path. You need to hit it just after launch and better yet before it launches. And by all means, putting your troops on their launch sites is the ultimate missile defense.

Preaching to the TDR choir, he is:

You cannot defend your way out of an asymmetric attrition fight. When an adversary possesses access to cheap, mass-produced offensive weaponry and is driven by an unyielding ideological commitment to disrupt regional stability, playing passive defense is a recipe for strategic exhaustion.

Yet across the waters surrounding the Arabian Peninsula, American and allied strategy remains trapped in precisely this reactive posture. While Western attention drifts between competing geopolitical flashpoints, the security environment in the southern Red Sea is deteriorating toward an acute strategic crisis. Along the coastal lowlands and rugged mountain terrain of western Yemen, Houthi forces are consolidating ground and maneuvering heavy assets toward the strategic port city of Mokha. Their operational objective is unmistakable: to establish a fortified anti-access and area-denial bubble capable of physically closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

We can't just be ducks for the enemy's target practice. We must extend ship defense against arrows to wherever the archer is standing to the very beginning of the enemy kill chain to our targeted ships. This applies to cheap anti-ship drones as much as it does to ballistic missiles (which are cheap compared to the systems needed to defeat them).

And sometimes you have to stand on the ground the enemy archers need. Especially when they occupy islands and ports that make them easier targets to reach and destroy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the BBC.

Ticket-Punching in the Russian Military

On paper, Russian commanders have combat experience. The reality almost certainly doesn't match the paper trail.

Part of Russia's poor combat performance may stem from "short command tours [which] reminds me of some of the problems we had in Vietnam that we repeated in GWOT."

Could be. I commented on that aspect of their vaunted Syrian intervention when large numbers of officers rotated through Syria:

My question is whether the Russian officers who briefly served in Syria learned to lead a fight or just punched tickets in a simulation of learning.

I'm guessing my question was valid given practice during the current much more serious war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Oddly, when I told it to edit the picture to show the officers lined up one behind the other, I was refused with the system saying it detected unsafe image. Why?? Bing is great but it makes it difficult for defense authors to generate illustrations.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Wildly Divergent Potential Timelines

 

Is Russia going super big on a Plan 2027 to create an even larger bulldozer to plow their way to victory? I think that plan would have worked in February 2022. I don’t know if Russia’s arsenal, soldiers, or people can stand that kind of effort now given their casualties and equipment losses over the last 4-1/2 years. And just what is Ukraine up to? I mean other than their aerial drone barrage on Russia. Or is that just my hopes getting way ahead of actual capabilities?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Dysfunction of America’s Defense Industry

In case you missed it on Substack: Calculating a PLA Defeat on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Waiting For Egypt?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing the Rain is Hard

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.