And Now For Something Completely Different

More memes. And there was much rejoicing.

 

Obviously, the above meme is satire about people who doubt the justice of eliminating badthink.

Taiwan is Not the Only Victim of China's Subliminal Aggression

Being reasonable isn't working out for the victims of China's unreasonable and relentless subliminal aggression.

One of these days the Philippines will need to muscle its way past these Chinese intruders and unload a garrison and engineers to build a real stronghold:

The Philippine government has protested the Chinese coast guard's harassment of Philippine coast guard ships patrolling a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the Department of Foreign Affairs said Monday.

China likes its subliminal invasion. Will it like an open conflict if its victims resist? 

The Philippines needs to understand that China doesn't want friendship from the Philippines. China wants territory. And a sincere thank you from Manila for seizing it. 

Perhaps this is a start:

The Philippines Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr ignored the diplomacy and took to Twitter with a very undiplomatic message, calling China an "ugly oaf" and demanding it "get the f*** out" of Philippine maritime waters.

More on the issue as victims edge toward being as aggressive as China has been. 

To stop China, America may need to support claims with a Berlin Airlift (East).

The Dullest Sort of Vital Missions

As we focus on shooters for great power competition, let's not forget the logistics that will allow us to move and sustain the shooters long enough to shoot and win.

Yes, sealift is a serious problem:

In an era of great power competition, the U.S. military has had to relearn a number of strategic facts. Perhaps the most important of these is the central role that sealift has played in America’s ability to project power abroad. During the Cold War, the U.S. was able to not only deploy large forces overseas but move and sustain entire armies around the world. Today, 90 percent of U.S. forces are based in the continental United States (CONUS). They will have to get to the fight. Over the past three decades, the U.S. sealift fleet has been allowed to decline precipitously. As military leaders have reluctantly admitted, a future high-end conflict might be lost due to a lack of sealift. Fixing this problem has become a strategic imperative for the Department of Defense.

He's preaching to the choir hear at TDR, of course. And maybe convince the Navy to protect the sealift, too.

The Letter From the Generals

Is a military coup really a threat in France?

I have wondered what is going on in France: "What the HOLY FUCK is going on in France? Is it too late already?"

Seriously, what is happening in France?

[Recently,] some 20 retired French generals and other officers and enlisted men (some of them still serving) penned a startling open letter, directly addressed to president Emmanuel Macron, his government, and the rest of the nation, warning of the possibility—no, the necessity—of a military coup if the country doesn’t get a grip on its restive Muslim “hordes” in the ghettos called “banlieues,” and on the manufactured leftist social unrest that calls itself “anti-racism.”

Is there really a threat of a military coup in France to fight Islamist advances within France?

Certainly, those writing and signing the letter didn't worry about repercussions. Do they represent a large portion of the military?

I understood that France needs to move quickly to defeat advancing tides of Islamist thinking inside France, as my post above wondering if it was too late to peacefully stop the Islamists noted.

And maybe the French military people think that it is too late for whatever they think the French civilian government is capable of doing to win that struggle.

I wrote about that, too, some time ago. I think that rather than succumb to creeping Islamization that a Europe with a long history of violence will be ruthless if pushed that far:

I've always felt that Europeans will not sit back and let unassimilated jihadi Moslems take over their continent. With a bloody history, Europeans will fight back and win. And they will be brutal about it if they feel desperate enough.

Is this what the letter from the generals is trying to prevent by pushing for a more energetic civilian-led response while there is time?

Or is the letter an indication that a number of French leaders think the time for a more brutal measure is needed now?

And can such a fight be restricted to jihadi-supporting Islamists without devolving into anti-Moslem hate in general? I did not want our war on terror to go that route. And to our credit America did not follow that route. But America has never had anywhere near the problem of Islamist thinking here that France and other European states cope with (or fail to cope with).

How desperate do the French feel?

As an aside, what will the European Union do if there is a coup in France to fight Islamist ideology? Will it follow along continent-wide in such a struggle? Germany doesn't seem completely oblivious to the problem:

The German government on Wednesday banned a Muslim organization that it accused of supporting "terrorism globally with its donations."

Does that indicate a German willingness to go along with harsher methods? Does it hint that the EU bureaucracy might welcome a coup in France to justify faster methods to strip the prefix from the proto-imperial EU structure?

Or is Germany trying to preempt harsher methods? Or is this business as usual that I am giving more weight to because it happened just after the letter.

Could the EU, whether in its current form or in a more imperial form, instead try to mobilize other states to stop France? 

Or will the EU collapse with a threat that it simply cannot cope with by consensus and cheese regulations?

UPDATE: Geopolitical Futures summarizes the letter and concludes:

That so many current members of the defense and security establishment were willing to sign the letter suggests they do not fear punishment. This is especially notable in a country like France, with a history of the military getting involved in domestic politics. This could be a warning to Macron.

That struck me, too. 

UPDATE: Is the French military really becoming more "far right"? Or is this the judgment of a left-wing media world that sees anybody to the right of social democrats as far right? Could the mere rejection of Islamist influence be enough to earn that label?

UPDATE: Whoa. Jes suis France:

France’s Minister of Defense and the head of the French Army announced that they would sanction active duty soldiers who signed onto the letter which declared :”It is no longer the time to procrastinate, otherwise tomorrow civil war will put an end to this growing chaos…”

As a result, thousands of active duty members of the French armed forces published another letter supporting their compatriots.

More political fallout is to be expected as a result of this new publication.

Below is a translation of this second letter, which at the time of writing, had over a million signatures:

Letter at the links.

Nails and the Forge That Makes Nails

Not every problem is a nail. But some problems can forge nails if not corrected.

CENTCOM sees two main threats in its region centered on the Middle East: 

Proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles and humanitarian issues are the two most urgent threats in the Middle East, Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said.

Sure, the poor man's cruise missiles are a demonstrated threat. The military has the mission of dealing with that threat. They have hammers.

But "humanitarian issues" is misleading. Bad governance leads to poor economies which leads to radicalization of the jihadi variety. So humanitarian aid is needed, he says. 

No. Humanitarian aid just provides more bad governance because there is more for the corrupt officials to steal. 

The Arab Spring a decade ago failed. But it was a lurch toward fixing bad governance. It was a yearning for an alternative to royal or military autocracy, or mullah-run theocracy.  Those have been the traditional alternatives for Arabs and they've left the Arab world behind as others advance. Democracy was the novel choice of the Spring to fix that bleak history and promise of nothing better in the future.

The protesters were right. But democracy is more than voting. It is rule of law. Which reduces corruption. And keeps democracy from being the tyranny of the majority. Which increases good governance. Which provides better economies. Ideally that produces fewer jihadis. But that takes time. 

We should support that transformation of the societies that breed corruption and jihadis. Just putting humanitarian bandages on the deep festering wounds that kill the region's hopes for better futures is not the solution. All it does at best is make the problem the next president's crisis.

The Arab Spring was a faltering step in the right direction. The journey will be a long one. And until the locals make that journey, we can never rest assured that the forever wars that spring from the region won't blaze again and forge new nails to burn our homeland.

To be fair, this isn't the mission of our military. Dealing with drones is within their lanes. And even emergency delivery of humanitarian aid is something they can do. 

So where's the rest of the government? And where is the sainted international community, of course? I kid on the latter. It is collectively fine with autocracy.

Don't Needlessly Complicate Victory

We surely made mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan. But who has done a perfect counter-insurgency job? Let's not make pursuit of the perfect prevent us from defending the good enough.

Max Hastings has a point: 

The failures in Afghanistan, as in Iraq, through the ensuing two decades have not been battlefield defeats. They have been caused, instead, by our inability to establish, within a timeframe acceptable to chronically impatient Western politicians and electorates, a sustainable local system of governance that also supports Western interests.

But we stayed long enough in Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea to succeed on the broader mission following battlefield victories. 

Are mistakes--and crimes--in war a modern problem? The Allies killed a lot of Japanese, Germans, and Italians. They are allies now. There was a lot of death and destruction in the Korean War. South Korea is our ally now.

Iraq seems good enough for now. We have allies who kill jihadis and who will resist Iran with our help. Whatever mistakes we made--and Hastings goes through a number--don't seem to have been critical to the military victories in Iraq and Afghanistan, certainly. 

And have our enemies failed to make even bigger mistakes? And commit even more crimes? Really? That doesn't matter?

Why couldn't Afghanistan turn out well enough to prevent it from being a jihadi sanctuary? I have few goals beyond that. Our effort to sustain that objective is pretty small now. We aren't talking about 100,000+ American troops in direct and sustained ground combat any more. 

Afghanistan has a better chance of surviving our withdrawal than I thought because 

dependence on China for weapons and massive [investments] means Pakistan is less able to support the Taliban as they did in the 1990s, when they literally created the Taliban and provided military necessities like weapons, ammo and advisors during the subsequent civil war.

Further, "The current Afghan government is much stronger than it was in the 1990s and the current government sides with the majority of Afghans who oppose the Taliban and the drug gangs."

And really, if we can't make them friends because of mistakes and can't carry out endless punishments, what can we do? Just endure whatever death, destruction, and hate comes out of those countries?

We've done well enough in Iraq and Afghanistan. And even Hastings worries about losing progress on women's rights in the latter if the Taliban win. There is much more to lose than that, if that isn't important enough to you.

And Hell, let me add that if America hasn't abandoned South Vietnam and let North Vietnam conquer the south after we withdrew all our troops, today we'd have a democratic ally about 20 years behind South Korea in progress economically and politically.

We need a better perspective, I think, to get that time for a broader victory. But in the meantime, we've done well enough. When so many said we couldn't even accomplish this.

She Lives!

With the Chinese fleet posing a threat to our presence and allies in the western Pacific, the Navy can't afford to have anything that floats out of the ship-killing business.  The Littoral Combat Ship is going to be rapidly upgraded in lethality.

 The Littoral Combat Ship lives! 

The LCS class has struggled to find a place in the fleet after its original mission modules — designed to be moved on and off ships given whatever mission they were performing — failed to develop as planned. But Adm. Mike Gilday told the committee today, “we’re very bullish on LCS” moving forward, a departure from previous comments where he portrayed the class as a problem to be surmounted.

Almost all LCS will have deck-mounted over-the-horizon anti-ship missiles. Half will also have anti-submarine modules while the other half will also have counter-mine modules. I hope that means the ability to lay mines, too. 

I guess this will be permanent, abandoning the original idea of rapidly swapped modules for different missions. The LCS has not been the best implemented ship program. Although I think the module concept was good. 

And the ludicrous idea of using those vulnerable ships close to shore in the littorals was mercifully abandoned.

The ships will make good forward presence ships in the western Pacific that can show the flag in peace time. And in crisis their forward presence won't tempt a potential enemy to strike first because the LCS aren't that vital. And if the enemy does strike first, better to lose an LCS than a capital ship like our destroyers, amphibs, or carriers. 

The Navy just needs to change the L in LCS. Maybe Light Combat Ship? They really do seem like light frigates in this configuration.

The Tyranny of Distance and the Freedom of Range

The Army has long attacked forces at sea. Why should land-based fires be wrong simply because they have greater range?

The Army is aiming at China's fleet with its effort to create a joint fires network: 

Project Convergence is aimed at rapidly accelerating the Army’s ability to find and take out targets by connecting people, vehicles and weapons through a massive, interconnected sensing and shooting kill web.

Which is fine.  

The Air Force may complain but the Navy wants all the help it can get. The Army is creating a new and useful capability for INDOPACOM operations. 

But the Army's core competency is large-scale ground combat. The Army needs to think about how it will take aim at China once control of the seas is established. The tyranny of the shores is absolute, as I discussed in Military Review.

Think about what comes after controlling the seas.

Cart Before the Horse

Don't cripple our conventional Army's ability to win a high-intensity military campaign against military peers by assuming victory.

I am completely and totally against having ground units dedicated to stability operation units: 

The author believes that the U.S. (and allies) require specific formations to conduct post-LCSO stability operations (hereafter referred to as stability operations).

The author looks at several options to achieve that objective. But the premise is misleading. Specific formations to achieve that mission are not the only way to achieve the mission.

I rejected this well before TDR, when the force proposed was a Army Constabulary Force (ACF):

Although Col. Fastabend and Lt. Col. Arbona rightly reject the concept of an ACF, they effectively argue for diverting the few combat units the Army has to the plethora of missions that operations other than war represent. While these are missions the Army must master, the world is not so benign and the Army not so dominant that the Service can slash its heavy forces to carry out every operation that compassion can conceive. Unfortunately, all three authors, coming from different perspectives, would reduce the Army's deployable combat forces by design or effect.

The United States does not need a Peace Corps in battle dress uniforms. The proposed constabulary will not only fail to alleviate the high operational tempo U.S. forces are committed to in operations other than war, it will threaten the Regular Army by creating another force that will compete with the Army for people and resources. The ACF will look like soldiers, but they will not be soldiers. Ultimately, they will be called upon to fight as if they were soldiers. If they are recruited and trained on the basis of their nonviolent mission, the shock of combat will be all the greater.

My view is that any good soldier can do the job if led by officers who understand the concepts and tactics of stability operations:

Any good soldier makes a good counter-insurgent. If led by leaders who understand counter-insurgency and can give the appropriate orders. So sayeth Strategypage, as it notes the Army's commitment to preparing for counter-insurgency and conventional high tempo combat[.] ...

To me, the danger of creating separate conventional units dedicated just to counter-insurgency is that leaders would forget that they aren't equipped or trained to face conventional foes yet those leaders will send them into such a fight because they sure look like any other soldier--and then they'd die in large numbers and fail to accomplish their mission. Call them a constabulary corps or whatever hip new term you want to come up with, but they would still just be second-tier soldiers--mere para-military forces that would be chewed up in high intensity combat.

Any good soldier can be a good counter-insurgent. All we need to do is make sure they're led by good counter-insurgent leaders.

I will say that I think having multiple headquarters for each brigade might be the solution:

Should the Army model the Navy practice of assigning "gold" and "blue" crews for some of its ships that have the crews fly in to crew the ship without bringing the ship (or subs, which do come back to home port for the swap, I think) home?

The Army could start to think of the combat brigades and its units as platforms and think of the command element as the crew.

Rather than having brigades assigned to either conventional or irregular warfare (and I've long thought that units assigned exclusively to the latter role--by whatever new term you want to call them--become worthless for the former), the Army could use its plethora of officers to create Blue and Gold command elements that focus on conventional or irregular missions (perhaps Red for conventional and Blue for COIN?) that can utilize the basic good soldier for new brigade missions.

Heck, add in other colors if you want specializations in urban missions (Gray) or whatever (e.g., White for Arctic, Green for jungle, Brown for mountain).

Remember, the Marines are no longer a second army. They were once the most significant "allied" force to help the Army overseas. The Marines have rejoined the fleet. 

The Army can't afford to reduce its organic ability to defeat enemy armies. Don't assume victory in that war. Reject creating Army units that are "softer" and less capable of winning--or even surviving--high-intensity combat.

Anschluss 2021

I mock Putin for his seemingly endless policies that do nothing but alienate NATO while China's shadow grows darker over Russia's 19th century Far East conquests from China. I have to grant him major credit for his latest ploy.

Russia moved west:

After protracted domestic unrest in 2020 in the form of massive protests attempting to oust Belarus’ president Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the country’s government is teetering on the verge of collapse. Moscow has rushed in to fill the vacuum. Lukashenka has suddenly fallen in line with Moscow’s agenda, despite years of resistance to encroaching Russian economic influence. Now it is probable that Russia is facilitating a soft takeover of the former Soviet republic.

This week, NATO was alarmed at an announcement by Belarus’ defense ministry that a tank battalion would be moved near the border with Poland. Just a week earlier, there was news of an alarming buildup of Russian tanks on its Crimean border with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned NATO that “additional measures” would be taken if troops were sent to aid Ukraine. On April 14 Russia warned the U.S. to stay out of the escalating situation “for its own good.”

I was more right than I thought despite the lack of kinetics:

Has Russia's mobilization near Ukraine been a distraction from Russia's drive to embrace Belarus more tightly? ...

This is dangerous. Belarus is the most important territory in Europe today. And Russian control has defense implications for NATO in the Baltic states and Poland.

If this is the long-feared reconquest of Belarus by Russia, the ability of Russia to threaten Ukraine while deterring NATO will also be increased by the Russian ability to threaten to advance through Poland and Lithuania to link up with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. 

This is dangerous for NATO.

But can Russia hold this subliminal conquest? Or is Belarus just behind on the path Ukraine took, which resulted in the expulsion of Russia in 2014 (back to the initial story):

According to Warsaw’s Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), over sixty percent of Belarusians believe their country should draw inspiration from periods when they were not ruled by Russia. ...

Simultaneously, approval rates for Vladimir Putin in Belarus have been on the decline. A Chatham House poll reported a 34.6 increase in negative viewpoints of the Russian president since the beginning of the August 2020 protests.

Perhaps this will eventually be just one more rake that Russia steps on.

UPDATE: The Belarus opposition is not giving up:

In a call to resume mass protests in Belarus, opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko want to use this weekend's Victory Day celebrations to remind the world of the regime's ongoing human rights abuses and the continued resistance within the country. They're also asking Brussels to toughen its sanctions regime against Minsk.

 We'll see.

Our System Will Endure

I believe America will emerge from our age of insanity. We've overcome autocrats, fascists, communists, and jihadis. We'll overcome the woke fools who dominate social media.

Yes, "equity" is simply the destruction of excellence. You can't mandate that everyone is excellent. All you can do is make sure everyone is equal in their condition (tip to Instapundit):

Once upon a time, the idea was equality, meaning we would treat everyone the same. This is a good thing, of course, and we have laws that demand we do just that. There’s no room for discrimination based on things like race, religion, sex, or any other trait like that.

Personally, I think that kind of discrimination is idiotic anyway.

However, recently, there’s been more and more of a push toward equity, rather than equality. What this means isn’t just everyone being treated the same, but that everyone gets the exact same, regardless of any other factor.

Now, this may sound good in theory. In practice, though it means that people aren’t allowed to excel. If they do, someone else is going to get left behind and that simply can’t be allowed.

Which means that everyone travels at the speed of the slowest. Hence, the end of standards for college, professions, and everything else. 

Enjoy crossing a bridge designed and built by the products of such thinking. Enjoy flying on a plane built and flown by the products of such thinking. Enjoy being treated (for "free!") by doctors who are the product of such a system. 

Only the ruling class will have advantage, of course. To overcome resistance to that insanity. The vanguard of equity, I suppose. That's how communism (and its little brother socialism, regardless of whether you modify it with "democratic") ends. The irony of making so much progress on our Constitution's ideal of equality that the left wants to pivot to equity in order to elevate themselves is not lost on me.

To repeat, "equity" is way different than "equality." Equality means the law treats us the same. As it should be. As our ideal used to be. Equity is the brutal suppression by government force of the freedom to excel. 

I'm actually pretty confident that we aren't on the road to ruin as a country. Oh, we're on that road and the left has their directions to Hell. But the country will lawfully resist the insanity before we reach the left's destination. And the path we follow will be changed. It won't take extreme measures. Just the mobilization of political power in areas the left doesn't control and in regaining control of some of what was lost. The arguments have to be made to the people about what is happening and who is causing the problem. 

Perhaps the reaction will ultimately leave us a little worse off. But perhaps the reaction will go beyond undoing damage and make us better. 

The problem is enduring the time it takes for our large country to address what the Twitter-addled vanguard of equity is doing to make things worse right now. That is pretty bad. Creating inflation will destroy the efforts of decades in our middle class. Freedom of speech and association are under assault. Voting itself is mistrusted. And yes, that is both parties. Democrats thought the 2020 election would be rigged by Trump. You do remember the charge that he was stealing mail boxes, right? It was only in Biden's victory that it became verboten to wonder about election integrity.

And I do worry enemies abroad will take advantage of our self-inflicted wounds before we come to our senses.  Two wide oceans aren't the protection they once were, but they do buy us time.

So chin up. Work the problem. Don't despair even though the victory of sanity will be slow and nearly imperceptible--just as the retreat into insanity has been slow.

I did say to strap in because it would be rough.

Weekend Data Dump

Don't panic about the climate. Remember, we really don't get to see the science. We see the science snipped and slanted by partisan activists; and then selected and edited by partisan media. Is that really the basis for policy action, let alone reason to panic?

Well that's certainly clear as mud now.

Amusingly enough in Biden's recognition of the Armenian genocide by the Turks a century ago, he "dead named" Istanbul. Surely in woke circles that's a thought crime that rivals actual genocide, right? And to offer some potential credit to the Biden administration, is this a shot across the bow to China for its ongoing multi-generational genocide against Uighurs? Nothing can be done for those long dead at the hands of a prior generation of Turks, after all. Is this declaration not really about the Turks and their Armenian victims? Is that why the Turkish response has been muted?

Wonderful. Central Africa doesn't have enough problems.

The Green New Deal will impoverish America? Well, sure. But it has stiff competition from now-counter-productive "Covid" stimulus spending and the so-called "infrastructure" spending plan. Economists with greater knowledge than I have will need to decide what created the rubble and what just bounced it.

America's FOB Jezero Crater seems to be working out well with a unmanned ground vehicle Perseverence providing local security and an unmanned aerial vehicle Ingenuity providing medium-range threat evaluation.

Germany and France are having Xi Jinping Flu pandemic problems. Did Trump move over there? Because I was informed that he was the reason we were hit so hard. Nuance is hard, I guess. Even for Europeans. Like I've said, judge national responses to this when it is over, not during it.

Well that's certainly a convenient excuse for the corrupt rulers to rule out any chance of losing office: "The Palestinian leadership will convene later this week to discuss whether to postpone next month's elections if Israel does not allow voting in east Jerusalem, where days of violence have ratcheted up tensions." Not that Hamas in charge wouldn't be worse. But that's hardly a ringing endorsement of the status quo. And maybe if the sainted international community stopped subsidizing bad choices by the Palestinians, they'd have consequences to learn from.

India is having serious Xi Jinping Flu problems. There was a time when India seemed amazingly resistant to the virus. Did that false confidence lull India? America is stepping up to help. I applaud the Biden administration for this decision. India is too large and poor to shut down long enough to vaccinate. A lot of people have to work to eat with little margin for friction.

Imagining a naval war with China. 

Defending a continued role for American ICBMs.

France will design a new generation of nuclear ballistic missile submarines. I don't worry about France having nuclear weapons.

There was a story about how China and Russia want to defeat America with information warfare that undermines our country. The problem isn't what China and Russia do. The problem is that we are a target-rich environment with too many Americans glad to have even enemies reinforce their domestic policy views. So much for the rally-around-the-flag effect.

Iran continues to supply the Yemen Houthis so they can strike directly at Saudi Arabia. 

Good idea: "The debate over the naval future of the United States should center on strategy rather than how many of what kinds of ships will make up the fleet, four authors who published pieces on the future of the Navy said on Thursday." I fully endorse that suggestion: "Instead of having a carrier debate, can we have a sea power debate?"

Huh: "Russians today are chagrined to learn that they are worse off than Romanians and Turks. Although President Vladimir Putin would like them to think that their country has been the victim of "outside forces" such as declining oil prices, no one has done more to hurt their living standards than he has." Will no advisor tell Putin he is effing up royally?  With a bonus warning to Ukraine.

The Germans and British are looking into joint tank design and production for a European tank. You can see how economies of scale can be achieved when you consider Britain could buy two of those tanks while Germany buys one ...

Science! The "six-foot" rule always seemed like BS to me, applicable only if you are pondering how close someone can sneeze or cough directly in your direction. Stay indoors long enough and you can accumulate enough of a viral load to infect you. Ventilation is way more important. And actually, the results make me wonder how I didn't get the Xi Jinping Flu when I went to Las Vegas last fall despite wearing a mask in the casinos. Cumulative exposure was way more than 20 hours. With way more people around me and some of the time with my mask removed for eating or drinking. Or maybe I got it and didn't realize it. Soon after getting home, I had maybe five hours when I wondered if I was getting sick. But with a 14-day self-quarantine and minimal contact--while masked--even after that, there was no way practical effect on others if I did get it. Although it might have gotten me through the winter spike until I got vaccinated. Our government sure made a lot of big decisions with little solid information to go on.

Kerry told the Iranians about Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria? Sure, that's slimy. It isn't treason, of course. American forces weren't involved. But to be fair, what are the odds that the Iranians thought their assets were mysteriously dying like Spinal Tap drummers? And if hardliners leaked that to keep Iran out of a new nuclear deal, that doesn't mean a nuclear deal is good for America. It just means the hardliners disagree with the so-called moderates who prefer to pretend that Iran doesn't want nuclear weapons. I think the hardliners have too much contempt for us to pretend. I hate it when stories are slanted by the right to make me defend Kerry, who is the worst American secretary of state in modern memory.

Leftists-with liberals along for the ride without protesting--are rebuilding the tribalism in America that the West fought so long to suppress. It's just straight up evil to do that.

Japan will be ready if North Korea's ballistic missile submarine goes to sea with nukes. Or if the Chinese get aggressive. Although I wonder if North Korea will send their SSB to sea with a herd of ancient diesel attack subs to soak up ASW weapons until the sub can launch.

Has anybody studied what effect everyone carrying a phone has had on the reasons people dial 911 for police help? Running back to your home or finding a pay phone to get that help was a bigger decision because it was not as easy to do.

Don't trust communist China: "In northwest India (Ladakh State) Chinese forces have not only slowed their agreed withdrawal from disputed territory in Ladakh but have quietly moved in HQ9 air defense systems."

We really have no idea how many nuclear weapons China has. 

As the need to fight for air superiority rises the Air Force is lowering its pilot standards? How soon does the Air Force think robots will take over? Or will AI make up for lower standards? This seems insane to me.

The Marines are thinking about an armed LPD. That sounds like a splendid idea (behind the USNI pay wall). And it seems like a major slap at the existing flawed LAW concept.

Biden is in a hurry to directly surrender to Iran on a nuclear deal rather than wait for the indirect European initiative to negotiated a pretend nuclear deal. Remember, the outline of a deal will be simple. Iran will pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program. And America will pretend to believe Iran.

Will South Africa intervene in Mozambique to fight jihadis?

The Iranians effed with American Coast Guard ships in the Persian Gulf. For some reason the Navy didn't immediately sink the Iranian Revolutionary Guards ships. Still, in a later incident a small Navy ship fired warning shots as Iranian speedboats continued to ef with the ships.

Iranian-backed Houthi attacked a Saudi Red Sea port with an explosive-packed unmanned surface vehicle. Remember, the Red Sea is Saudi Arabia's Plan B oil export route if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to be able to cut that off, too. And yet the Biden administration tries to gain favor with Iran by ending Saudi pressure on the Houthi. Gosh our enemies sure missed America's Smart Diplomacy!

I heard somebody discuss the possibility of people hiring other people to carry out acts of war with armed drones. I was all over that fifteen years ago.

The CDC now says wearing a mask outside doesn't do much good. I've felt that way for a long time and haven't worn a mask outside since early days of 2020 when we knew too little to know better. But glad the CDC is catching up with the obvious.

Russia began naval exercises in the Black Sea; and America announced that a Coast Guard cutter is heading to the sea to work with allies.

The Enforcement Coordination Cell battles North Korean smuggling at sea.

The story of how a company of Rangers and a Delta team, with support from special forces helicopters, took and held the Haditha Dam against 4 days of Iraqi attacks while outnumbered 22:1 during the Iraq War invasion.

Researchers who "debunked" the lab theory of the origin of the Xi Jinping Flu COVID-19 virus had ties to the Chinese Communist Party. Huh.

Boko Haram jihadis, piracy, and mass oil theft are starting to look like the best case scenario for Nigeria's future. Corruption kills. Normally at a lower rate. But sometimes at war rates. AFRICOM has its hands full.

France is seeking an opening for influence in northeast Syria. The coalition in eastern Syria protects the Kurds and others who oppose Assad. But it is as much about preventing that territory from being a jihadi logistics area for operations in Iraq as it was during the Iraq War. If this is a French Plan B as it loses influence in Lebanon, I regret them giving up on fighting Hezbollah's influence and power.

Senility dies in darkness.

Yes: "KenDiAngelonianism, in its infantilization of black people for purposes of white self-congratulation, is racist[.]" Tip to Instapundit. 

If Biden was Obama's insurance against being assassinated, Harris is Biden's insurance that no White House Doctor will ever call time of death on him prematurely. 

Cable-Chewing Beavers. Admit it, that would have made a great name for a lesbian punk rock band. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Yes, with a long enough and broad enough horizon, liberty and prosperity are winning. The only hitch is that we have to get through a retrograde era right here and right now.

BOOM! The walls are closing in. 

Biden is delusional and the jihadis will prove him wrong. If Biden's claim was true I'd have no problem with fighting the threat. Sadly, Democrats will treat West Virginia as a vast figurative free-fire zone. Because if a white person there says something racist, he's a racist. But if he doesn't say something racist, he's a well-disciplined racist. Also, the Capitol Building riot had zero chance of challenging our democracy. Zero. The Democratic over-reaction to that riot is another question altogether. Meanwhile on the other side of the country, actual insurrection.

Iran's efforts to steal nuclear technology from Germany is an annual story at this point. And the presence of so many Iran-affiliated terrorists and their supporters in Germany is hardly a shock.

Japan and South Korea object to Biden administration attempt to give goodies to North Korea to re-start nuke talks. North Korea has long been willing to accept stuff and pay the price of sitting at a table with us for a bit. Apparently, a really, really sincere American offer of stuff will do the trick. This time for sure. Also note the successful local resistance to police efforts to crack down on black markets. And the punishment/slave camps. Lovely place. I bet the North Koreans regret wasting the insult "dotard" on Trump.

Those women should be terrified of a return of the Taliban. Why Western feminists aren't the most hard core anti-jihadis is beyond my comprehension. To be fair, it is far safer and profitable to bitterly complain about Western men.

Oh good, the Department of Defense is more vulnerable to hacking to disrupt internal communications. 

China launched the main module of their planned space station.

Once again, American policy seems to be to reward Iran up-front for restoring a nuclear weapons agreement. Gosh, I wonder if we can bribe Iran into pretending it doesn't want nukes? And will we again pretend to believe Iran? The suspense is killing me. The display of Smart Diplomacy amazes me. Giving up your leverage as an opening gambit is truly brilliant.

Russia's low threshold for first use of nuclear weapons. It's a product of Russia's national defense bankruptcy. It's hard to defend your borders when you are a regional military power with continents-spanning borders. And while the effect of Russia's claim to use nukes in a "conventional" war is limited--if true--given that NATO has no interest in invading Russia, what if Russia believes it can invade NATO and shield itself from a counteroffensive with nukes? Have a super sparkly day.

China has shiny new weapons. Can they use them effectively? Probably not as effectively as we fear. But my confidence that America can maintain the soft aspects of leadership, morale, training, readiness, and logistics is not as strong as it once was.

The Marines have continued to build up their rotational presence in Australia. Question: Is this still a Marine Expeditionary Unit--as the original plan aimed for--or is it disaggregated for anti-ship island operations under the new Marine focus?

Army deployments to Poland are supposed to deter Russia--not make it rain.

An American destroyer tracked the PLAN Liaoning carrier group.

The British are looking to collaborate with America on a new fighter aircraft. The British are diversifying their partnerships as the attempt to work with the EU on new tanks shows. Which seems prudent for a country in geographic Europe but not political Europe. Those are different things.

The Abraham Accords have some momentum even without America pushing the effort; and Saudi Arabia looks to China as a possible Plan B to American support. Recall that 40 years ago the Saudis had Chinese intermediate range missile waiting for Pakistani nuclear warheads if necessary.

What the HOLY FUCK is going on in France? Is it too late already?

America has never had a shortage of useful idiots, that's for sure.  

The Democratic Party doesn't care about minorities except as cannon fodder in the party's war on America.

Precision 120mm mortar shells.

I had retreated from my concerns about the Russian vaccine for the Xi Jinping Flu virus. It seemed okay. But Brazil says it has a big flaw. Russia denies it. In a rather threatening manner. Is it a flaw in the vaccine? Is the vaccine Brazil got different from the tested version that seems okay? Were the clinical trials flawed? Is there a quality control problem in production?

The Navy is getting ready to go to sea with the F-35C. I've long wondered why the Navy has lagged the Air Force and Marines in getting the F-35 into action.

I commend the Biden administration for having our special forces work with the Ukrainians to make them better able to fight the Russians.

Speaking of bastards: "Russia also maintains a large naval presence off the coast of Ukraine and Moscow said it will block all foreign naval vessels from transiting a part of the Black Sea known as the Kerch Strait until October." Clearing out other navies for training is one thing. But an exercise stretching to October that blocks the strait is in effect a blockade of Ukraine's Sea of Azov coast--an act of war. Will our Coast Guard vessel in the Black Sea attempt to pierce that blockade to reach Mariupol?

Blue collar people of color don't like the riots that woke college-educated people think are justified from their safe perches insulated (by police or private security) from those riots. How it is pro-minority to justify and cheer on communists in BLM and Antifa who destroy minority neighborhoods and businesses is beyond me. I'm more disgusted with the woke than the communists. I expect communists to be vile destructive scum. The woke claim to have a monopoly on compassion. Where is it?

Will Brexit ever really be completed? Well, not as long as the European Union is a quasi-autocratic proto-imperial entity. As long as that entity needs to punish Britain to keep its smaller subject states in line, Britain will regularly experience legal punitive missions directed at it from the continent. Perhaps Britain needs to look at this era as a new Napoleonic War to break this new continental system around the periphery.

Well that's a take: "Removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan won’t endanger national security but will demonstrate 'American leadership' by halting the cycle of endless armed conflict, President Joe Biden argued in his address to Congress on Wednesday night." It is leadership to leave an enemy an advantage by getting out of their way? The "cycle of violence" is carried out by death cult jihadis. It is simply wrong to imply that America and our allies contribute to violence by standing in the way of the death cult jihadis.

That's pretty clever:

The SEALs are joining the shift away from counter-terrorism to great power competition missions.

We have no idea if our systems to deflect incoming anti-ship missiles work: "The U.S. Navy 'currently does not have a well-defined strategy or funding' for testing to determine whether radar and self-defense systems on board many of its vessels can stop anti-ship cruise missiles, according to the Pentagon’s acting director of combat testing." This requires "unmanned test platform to fire at, live test data and a sophisticated and verified model and simulation" which the Navy has no plans to create. I'm assuming this is about ship electronic counter-measures rather than kinetic anti-missile systems.

The hoods are figurative, of course, and internalized through the denial of agency to minorities.

I watched a university feature on YouTube the other day. It had closed captioning. It worked really well. The video also had a sign language translator in the corner. That's just virtue signaling at this point, isn't it?

There are long-term health issues associated with getting the Xi Jinping Flu. Is that normal for a covid virus? Or is this an indication that it was created in a lab? And it could still have been accidentally released from a lab for that to be true.

An interesting discussion of the Chinese threat to invade Taiwan and the consequences: "China’s growing military confidence puts Taiwan at risk[.]" The fate of Taiwan is more than a question of Taiwan's fate. And China just have to believe--even if they are wrong--that they will win for them to start a war. Also, be careful how you define a Chinese defeat. As I wrote in Military Review, if China remains on Taiwan after a ceasefire is declared, China has effectively won the war even if it takes years for Taiwan to be defeated.

The American Coast Guard ship that entered the Black Sea exercised with the Turks.

When it positively has to get there overnight. Six American F-15s ferried JDAMs to the UAE using transport carriages. That's new.

Australia is purchasing 160 Abrams tanks and variants based on the hull. Huh. That would eject any light enemy bridgehead from their continent. Also, four heavy lift helicopters.

The American and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will create a power vacuum that others may try to fill for good or ill. Nah, it'll be fine. What could possibly go wrong?

I'm going to let time solve a problem I created. I had an older rug at my entry. I put it there for the winter so a nicer rug wouldn't get dirty. But it slipped on the floor. So I put down sticky rug anchors so nobody would break a neck. I recently put a better carpet down that has friction with the floor. I thought I should pull up the anchors. No go. I thought of really forcing them. Then wondered if it would rip the finish out. That would require a major repair effort to rip up the floor and put down replacement sections. What if I can't lift the anchors at all without risking damage? Then I thought, who cares? I always have a rug there. Sure, it bugs me that I can't have the bare floor now. But let's think long term. Has there ever been any glue I have used that has not failed at some point? Nope. So I'll just leave the anchors and let time do its job of drying out the glue and making them come up easily. Hell, by then I'll probably be annoyed they no longer stick. 

Follow the science union! Tip to Instapundit. Remember, it's the American Federation of Teachers--not the American Federation of Teaching.

Yes, communists are evil and are monsters. It needs to be said that clearly.

A complicated Norway-Germany two-way weapons deal.

Chemical factory fire in Iran. Cause unknown.

Biden will reject Trump's and Obama's approaches to North Korea. But the story mis-characterizes Trump's approach: "Donald Trump’s deeply personal effort to win over Kim Jong Un and Barack Obama’s more hands-off approach." Trump tried to win over Kim, but he also tightened sanctions. I was actually pleasantly surprised by Obama's approach. I feared he'd try to bribe North Korea. Which is a futile approach. And I fear that setting up his predecessors' approaches the way the story does is the beginning of a new effort to throw rewards at North Korea. North Korea will accept the goodies and do nothing for them.

I keep expecting--for decades now--our deficit spending to ignite inflation. But every time an increase in that spending doesn't cause inflation, the politicians increase the deficit even more. This year all caution has been dropped and the spending is skyrocketing. Maybe this time inflation will be the result. There are already signs of it. God help us. It's a killer of the middle class.

Either our colleges--run by woke left-wingers--are hate-filled white supremacist havens, or the supply of white supremacy exceeds the demand on those campuses. Tip to Instapundit.

Amazingly, even privileged professors are eager to claim the mantle of victimhood. I swear to God, the Iron Throne on Westeros had less competition for it.

Good Lord, we should send a lot more help to India to fight the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic.

The State Department denies a report on Iranian TV that America released $7 billion for four Americans held by Iran. Tell me you don't know that the truth will be that we provided access to $6.5 billion. Or that it involved 5 American hostages.

I took advantage of an unseasonably warm day in the middle of dreary coolness to walk downtown and get a beer and lunch. It had been 20 months since I'd last been to my favorite pub (winter and the plague). And a mask didn't touch my face for any of it! A simple joy. But I have it back.

The Iran nuclear deal was horrible and basically designed to enable Iran to build nuclear weapons without worrying about being attacked. And the "inspection" provisions were just dog and pony shows to lull the West into believing Iran was blocked from getting nukes. It is shameful that Biden wants to restore a deal. Tip to Instapundit.

And Now For Something Completely Different

The memes keep coming. Even though I keep thinking I'm getting tired of this. I only claim some are good.

  

UPDATE: Oops. I forgot a quotation mark at the end of that Iran nuclear deal meme.