At peace with Egypt and Jordan, chaos in Syria, and with Iran only a potential nuclear threat, Lebanon is naturally the focus of Israeli conventional forces where Hezbollah and their rocket arsenal loom over northern Israel:
Israel considers Lebanon, in the form of Hezbollah, as its most immediate military threat. Israel has been shifting its military plans and deployments to the north and paying close attention to Syria because of this and the fact that Iran gets a key base area if it succeeds in getting the Syrian rebels and ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) shut down there. Meanwhile Hezbollah continues to make progress in taking control of the Lebanese government.
One, I hadn't realized Hezbollah has been gaining ground in dominating Lebanon. I thought their support for Alawite Assad would decrease their appeal. That is worrisome and a reason to be careful in arming the Lebanese government.
Two, they note that Hezbollah has suffered 2,000 killed in action since 2011 in their fight inside Syria on behalf of Assad on the orders of their Iranian paymasters. That's an amazing level of casualties for a force that totals 15,000 armed men.
Are those who survived that meat grinder experienced or shell-shocked?
As I've noted before, when the Syrian Civil War looks like it is winding down with either an Assad win or defeat, so that Israeli action doesn't get in the way of the circular firing squad of forces hostile to Israel killing each other off, I think Israel should seriously consider invading Lebanon to tear up Hezbollah before that terror group can fully withdraw from Syria, regroup, and focus on Israel again.
Israel has a problem with a Lebanon whose power does not allow them to control Hezbollah, but Israel's ability to target the non-state threat is shielded by that sovereignty.
But Israel will have an opportunity to set back Hezbollah's threat to Israel. Heck, I'd drive all the way to Baalbek and really tear up the Hezbollah infrastructure in addition to killing off any of the experienced survivor of the Syrian Civil War.
