Russia is trying to appear threatening, but there is no reason for anyone to go change their underwear given this news:
Russia Massing Military Forces Near Border With Ukraine ...
In Moscow, the military acknowledged significant operations involving armored and airborne troops in the Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov regions abutting eastern Ukraine[.] ...
A day after a deputy minister denied any military buildup on the border, the Defense Ministry released a series of statements beginning early Thursday that appeared to contradict that. They outlined what was described as intensive training of units involving artillery batteries, assault helicopters and at least 10,000 soldiers.
The operations confirmed, at least in part, assertions by Ukrainian leaders on Wednesday that Russia was massing forces, as well as amateur photographs that appeared to show columns of armored vehicles and trucks in a border village called Lopan, only 30 miles from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv. One statement announced that another 1,500 paratroopers from Ivanovo, east of Moscow, had parachuted onto a military base in Rostov, not far from the Ukrainian cities Donetsk and Lugansk.
This is nothing. Yes, many tens of thousands of troops are near Ukraine's border. But you could also say that we mass troops near Mexico because of our forces in Texas and California. Even Canada might have reason to complain. Tenth Mountain Division, anyone?
The operations noted are miniscule. Ten thousand soldiers? That's not an invasion force. The brief invasion of tiny Georgia in 2008 used more troops than that.
And dropping 1,500 paratroopers at Rostov isn't much.
This is invasion theater. I won't say that Russia won't invade eastern Ukraine. But I will say it would be stupid, risk defeat, and even if victorious in a ham-handed manner risk showing up their military as a Potemkin Army.
UPDATE: A Russian amphibious warfare ship delivered more troops to Sevastopol on Friday:
Reuters reporting team watched a Russian warship unload trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier at Kazachaya bay near Sevastopol on Friday morning. Trucks drove off a ramp from the Yamal 156, a large landing ship that can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs.
The Russians don't have that much there--2 airborne regiments, I'd guess, plus the naval infantry regiment that is based there normally--so every little bit helps.
UPDATE: More on the "massing" of troops on Ukraine's eastern border that is more like psychological warfare.
