I don't blame the Russian invasion of Crimea on President Obama. This is clearly blamed on Putin.
Given reports that Putin is increasingly living in a bubble (see the second update here on Putin's scary state of mind), I think that it is just as likely that Putin's yes-men would have convinced Putin he could get away with this against Bush or Reagan as it is that Putin disregarded President Obama's ability to interfere.
Countries do things for their own reasons without basing their actions 100% on what we do or don't do. I've complained enough about those on the left condemning America for--well, virtually anything we do or don't do--as a reason to excuse what others do as a natural reaction. So I won't claim that President Obama virtually invited Putin to invade. There was an effect, but it was likely just a supporting reason.
The primary effect, I think, is how others perceive our ability to influence Russia going forward or ability to resist others. If we had a reputation for being a strong nation, I think others could look at Crimea and say, "Well, the United States made it clear this is unacceptable. But there are limits to what American can do. But I trust America will work to contain and even reverse this conquest. And I trust America would do more in areas more accessible to American power."
So the hit on our reputation would be limited and would wear off. Whatever you may think of President Bush's failure to prevent the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, the world and our left still worried that "cowboy" Bush would too readily resort to war. That may have prevented Russia from seeking more than cementing control of what they already controlled prior to the war. And it certainly contained the damage to our reputation of power.
Under President Obama, after seeing that the soft power of Hope and Change isn't having any practical effect, I think much of the world just doesn't have confidence that we have the will to defend our interests or our allies. Our actual physical power means that they can have hope (or fear) that we might when it matters. And it may be that in the short run we are the only game in town for allies to counter a threat that makes us allies.
But in the long run, our lack of a serious reputation means other countries may seek other means of protection. Whether that means seeking other major allies for protection or getting nuclear weapons, these nations will act on that lessening of trust when they can.
So President Obama can recover from this and restore our reputation. I know his intelligence people said no invasion was likely. So getting slow off the mark is understandable--a bit. There is no excuse for not having an invasion scenario as a foreseeable Putin option. Yet you can only go on your best intelligence, I'll admit.
A speech on the order of President Carter's post-Afghanistan speech to the nation would help.
God help me, but I will admit that Samantha Powers made a good statement on Russia's invasion:
U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power dismissed Moscow's contention that it intervened militarily in Crimea to protect the human rights of Russian civilians there as "baseless," insisting there is no evidence of any threats against ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
"One might think that Moscow has just become the rapid response arm of the High Commissioner for Human Rights," she told the council. "Russian military action is not a human rights protection mission."
Build on that in a presidential address. Copy and edit President Carter's January 1980 speech.
Economic and other sanctions, as the administration is talking about, should be a partial response. The Russians had no business being added to the G-7 and was always a gesture to encourage their future economic and political development to deserve membership. Russia's membership should be suspended as part of this package.
And drill, baby, drill. Every drop of oil or natural gas we pull out of the ground denies Putin money for his adventures.
There are military and foreign policy responses, too, although we should not contemplate going to war over Crimea. We don't need to send a carrier battle group to the Black Sea.
Help pay for this by lifting the sequestration caps from military spending. I'm not calling for a Carter build up. But just make defense spending reductions more in line with other reductions in spending growth.
And we should supply Ukraine with critical military supplies and training going forward.
There would have been the same limits of our immediate reaction if Romney had won the 2012 election. But we can prevent a rush for the exits by nullifying the notion that we are neither a reliable ally nor a dangerous foe.
