Thursday, March 13, 2014

The Limits of Revolution

Ukraine's revolution is a mix of a true revolution seeking democracy and a war of independence from Russian domination.

Stratfor notes (in an email not an article) that Ukraine's oligarchs remain a force separate from political players:

Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union was followed by the privatization of state-owned assets, giving birth to a powerful class of business leaders known as oligarchs. Since the country's founding, they have played a crucial role in the political system -- there are close ties between Ukraine's oligarchs and the evolution of the country's political crisis.

So there are limits on what can be achieved democracy-wise with the oligarch system in place.

On the other hand, Ukraine's efforts to get the oligarchs involved in securing eastern Ukraine enables Ukraine to achieve the independence side of the struggle.

In the end, the independence angle is more important. Without it, Putin will not allow democracy. With it and real integration with the West, Ukraine can evolve to more democracy with lessened influence of the oligarchs.

Ukraine's revolution is no less real for these limits. But don't let heightened expectations sour you when the results aren't as good.

And Ukraine's revolution hasn't won yet, obviously.