Stratfor puts limits on China's power:
While the United States has committed many errors, the fragmentation of Europe and the weakening of China mean the United States emerges more powerful, since power is relative. It was said that the post-Cold War world was America's time of dominance. I would argue that it was the preface of U.S. dominance. Its two great counterbalances are losing their ability to counter U.S. power because they mistakenly believed that real power was economic power. The United States had combined power -- economic, political and military -- and that allowed it to maintain its overall power when economic power faltered.
A fragmented Europe has no chance at balancing the United States. And while China is reaching for military power, it will take many years to produce the kind of power that is global, and it can do so only if its economy allows it to. The United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War because of its balanced power. Europe and China defeated themselves because they placed all their chips on economics. And now we enter the new era.
That sounds about right. Naturally, it sounds about right since I pretty much agree with the assessment. I've noted China's geographic disadvantage and the many nations that absorb Chinese power before we even enter the picture.
Indeed, greater Chinese power increases the need for alliance with America by China's neighbors. But this requires us to be strong enough to keep China from peeling those neighboring but weaker powers away from friendship and alliance with us.
As a funny aside, let me note how Stratfor says Europe took advantage of our supposed distraction in the Middle East:
Europe single-mindedly focused on economic matters. ...
In this new era, Europe is reeling economically and is divided politically.
Europe took the post-Cold War opportunity to let us handle defense and focused their best and brightest minds on economic prosperity and political integration while letting their militaries shrink. In the end, Europe has a weaker military and economic problems that threaten to break apart their proto-empire of the EU.
Batting .333 is pretty good in baseball. But not very good for arguing that Europe had the smart guys and gals.
Don't forget that even a China that "just" dominates the Western Pacific will have global implications. Don't panic about China; but don't dismiss China. China is a problem like any other problem: we have to work the problem to make sure it doesn't hurt us.
