Sunday, April 14, 2013

Hey, Here's One Way a War Might Start

So what if this email went to a Japanese warship cruising in the Sea of Japan shadowing a North Korean vessel?

Japan’s aviation bureau mistakenly reported a North Korean missile launch as it sought damage reports from airports after the biggest earthquake in the western part of the country since 1995.

The captain, believing that time was short, might think that sinking a North Korea vessel potentially able to help guide that missile into a Japanese target would save a lot of Japanese lives.

So what would North Korea then do? Accept the explanation that the technologically advanced Japanese sent the wrong email message? Please.

Remember, North Korea might not start a war because they really do know they can't win such a war. But if the North Koreans think their enemies have already started the war, striking as hard as they can as quickly as they can could be seen as the only way to reduce the scale of their loss--or at least punish the aggressors as much as possible before losing.

In a crisis atmosphere, mistakes--acting or not acting--can be fatal.