Friday, April 08, 2011

It's Official

The Libya intervention now has its own NATO web page (tip to Defense Industry Daily).

It will be interesting to see how long it is updated, given that Khaddafi is unlikely to lose:

The head of U.S. Africa Command, General Carter Ham, said on Thursday the conflict was entering stalemate and it was very unlikely the rebels would be able to fight their way into Tripoli to overthrow Gaddafi. ...

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu followed a similar line to Ham on Friday.

"We have always made clear there is no purely military solution to this conflict. This is why it is so important to find a political solution and in this there is no stalemate," she said. Rebels have rejected peace talks with Gaddafi.

Unless you think negotiations with Khaddafi are likely to get him to leave office, only a military solution (or sheer, dumb luck) will get rid of Khaddafi.

Right now, it seems like the fight is over the location of the ceasefire line. Will Khaddafi capture Misrata? Who will control Brega?

And is that section of the coastal front now in stalemate where the line will be drawn? Or are the loyalists only being slowed down by coalition air power in bringing up supplies and combat power to launch an attack to capture Ajdabiya so Khaddafi's forces have a forward position to launch an offensive into the rebel zone after NATO goes home and takes down their web page?

Given the weakness of the rebels, I think it is optimistic to say that the situation is in stalemate. I think the loyalists have the edge, and that our air power is only masking loyalist superiority.