Saturday, April 23, 2011

No Retreat

I was puzzled when I read this development in the Libya War:

Libyan troops captured by rebels in Misrata said on Saturday the army had been ordered to retreat from the western port, marking a possible shift in a two-month revolt against leader Muammar Gaddafi.

The Libyan government said earlier NATO air strikes meant it no longer made sense for the army to fight in Misrata and local tribes would take over the battle in Libya's third largest city.

After all the talk of how NATO aircraft can't identify targets in Misrata, the loyalists are pulling back even though Misrata is critical for the loyalists to capture? Have we been more effective than we thought?

But then I read a more recent article that completely nullifies the first report:

Intense fighting gripped Misrata on Saturday, overwhelming its hospital with casualties after Moamer Kadhafi's regime gave its army an "ultimatum" to take the besieged Libyan city.

At least 10 people were killed and 50 wounded in the street battles that came after NATO air raids struck near a compound in the capital Tripoli where Kadhafi resides. ...

Saturday's upsurge in the fight for the port city came after Kadhafi's government said it had given its army an "ultimatum" to stop the rebellion in the city, 200 kilometres (120 miles) east of the capital.

Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said: "There was an ultimatum to the Libyan army: if they cannot solve the problem in Misrata, then the people from (the neighbouring towns of) Zliten, Tarhuna, Bani Walid and Tawargha will move in and they will talk to the rebels.

I sincerely doubt that the loyalist civilians will "talk." But they will be tough to distinguish from civilians or armed rebels.

Khaddafi clearly understands the importance of taking the city. He may be changing tactics, but he's still going after the city. Four American Predators over Misrata won't stop Khaddafi.

UPDATE: Something is going on. The Libyans are pulling back from Misrata after a flurry of fighting (as a warning?) so loyalist tribal leaders can talk the rebels into leaving:

Libyan tribal leaders are trying to get rebels in the city of Misrata to lay down their arms within 48 hours, a government official said early Sunday, after a day of fierce clashes between opposition fighters and Moammar Gadhafi's forces.

Is this related to or even being coordinated with the Russian-Greek effort to get a ceasefire in Libya? Heck, the Russians even say they'd " send observers to monitor a cease-fire."

We have demanded a pull back from Misrata as a condition for agreeing to a ceasefire. Would we and NATO consider this a face-saving way out of a war that nobody on our side wants to complete? Sure, we'll say, Khaddafi is still in power, but we saved Misrata and Benghazi. Mission accomplished!

Still, I find it hard to imagine that Khaddafi would suspend the civil war short of regaining the critical port facilities of Misrata. Somehow, he's hoping to leverage the rebels out so he can recapture the city--perhaps slowly under Russian cover--rather than trying to get an actual ceasefire that leaves Misrata in rebel hands.