Many in the West say that Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is unacceptable. But the unknown repercussions of using military force to stop or set back Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons has made it too difficult to order that step. Sanctions are the obvious middle course to avoid both ends.
Covert actions are the other means of buying time. The Stuxnet virus and some high profile assassinations are two visible means. I assume that there's a lot more going on we don't see. But if all we do is buy time, the ultimate destination--a nuclear Iran--will still be reached:
We shouldn't get carried away with the power of covert programs. There are still many challenges so severe - such as the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan - that they cannot be resolved by a handful of secret agents and daring commandos. But covert action can be a valuable part of the policy maker's tool kit, provided that it is integrated into a larger plan.
In the case of Iran, the question is whether we'll make good use of the time apparently bought by successful covert action. If the Obama administration spends the next three years trying to push sanctions resolutions out of the United Nations or trying to open negotiations with Tehran, it will accomplish little. Better to ramp up another covert action program - this one designed to help the Iranian people overthrow their dictators.
Yes, if we do nothing but buy time with covert operations, the main question is how long these means can put off the day when we either have to talk ourselves into the notion that Iran under the mullahs with nuclear weapons is acceptable or we have to risk the unknowns of military action.
You'd think that helping the opposition defeat the mullahs would be an obvious solution to avoiding an Iran with nukes and the effects resulting from a military campaign to smash up Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Yes, I know many believe that our help "taints" the opposition, but I don't buy it. History is filled with regime opponents welcoming help from abroad.
And as I've asked repeatedly, if we don't help the opposition, will we really take comfort from the fact that the majority of "untainted" Iranian people will feel really, really, sad if their mullahs nuke Charleston with a containerized nuke?
