Early on, I thought Ukraine had to fight for Crimea:
I just don't know if the Ukrainian military is capable of moving fast enough to Crimea to begin a counter-attack in time to beat Russian heavy armor reinforcements.
But I do know that if Russia gets away with taking Crimea without a war, that is no way to deter future Russian moves. I think Ukraine needs to fight even if they lose the war. After all, Russia doesn't have the manpower or money to retaliate by launching a general invasion of Ukraine.
Russia needs to pay a price for this and only Ukraine can make sure Russia is overcharged for their acquisition of Crimea.
Even if we wanted to fight Russia over the fate of Crimea, we can't. Not if Ukraine won't fight Russia over the fate of Crimea. We can't care more about that territory than Kiev. I wondered if the war would end before shots were even fired.
The next day I said that fighting--even losing--could expose Putin to losses since he needs as cheap a win as possible to emerge with this reputation intact:
Putin clearly needs to win this as cheaply as possible. Getting his way in Crimea without shooting is the best way to achieve that. Otherwise, collateral damage could start to appear. Whether it is stock market losses, loss of trade, other sanctions, demonstration that Russia's military isn't anywhere near as good as Putin would like the world to believe, or something else.
Who knows, enough Russians might worry that Putin will be unstoppable if he gets his way in the Sudetenland Crimea, and might start gathering in their own public squares in protest.
So Ukraine needs to make sure they don't lose Crimea without a fight. If Putin doesn't want a fight, that's what he needs to have.
The struggle dragged on as Putin pulled Crimea through a fake referendum and into Russia, with but one apparent fatality as a Ukrainian was shot dead on Wednesday as Putin's thugs stormed a Ukrainian headquarters in Crimea.
And yesterday, I called again for Ukraine to resist before it is too late to easily inflict pain on the battlefield:
I said it before and I'll say it again, allowing Russia to take Crimea with their subliminal invasion is a mistake. Ukraine needs to fight even if they lose. Otherwise they lose credibility for regaining their lost province. And make it easy for Putin to believe he can do the exact same thing again in eastern Ukraine or perhaps Odessa.
But Ukraine is calling it quits:
Surrendering to Russia's inexorable seizure of Crimea, Ukraine announced plans Wednesday for mass troop withdrawals from the strategic peninsula as Moscow-loyal forces seized control of Kiev's naval headquarters here and detained its commander.
Attempting to face down the unblinking incursion, Ukraine said it would hold joint military exercises with the United States and Britain.
Ukraine could not win a war with Russia, it is true. Neither could the Finns in 1939 hope to defeat the Russians. Yet the Finns made Russia pay a price for winning. Finland lost territory at the end of that war. But they gained respect and stayed out of the Soviet empire despite once having been a part of Russia's empire.
Russia today is far weaker today--other than nukes--than the Soviet Union of 1939. Ukraine doesn't need to inflict the losses on the Soviet Union that Finland achieved to make Putin choose to avoid war with Ukraine again.
Ukraine's decision to hold joint exercises with our forces and British forces may be an effort to get Russia to accept their win and just stop. They have few cards and they played that pair.
So the war is over as far as Ukraine is concerned. We'll see if Putin cashes in his chips to await the next game or doubles down in this one.
UPDATE: This is just insane:
"Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel spoke by phone today with Ukraine's Minister of Defense Ihor Tenyukh, receiving an update on the situation in Crimea.
"Secretary Hagel reiterated that he appreciated the restraint exhibited by Ukrainian Armed Forces and expressed his condolences for the death of the Ukrainian soldier yesterday. He stressed again to Minister Tenyukh that the United States stands by the people of Ukraine, condemns the use of force by the Russian Federation and continues to call for the removal of Russian forces.
"Secretary Hagel assured Minister Tenyukh that he continues to monitor the situation closely, and that it is important for the two leaders to remain in touch with one another."
Russia takes over Crimea, barely firing a shot in anger and apparently killing but one Ukrainian naval officer. Normally, when you are invaded, it is considered right and proper to defend yourself.
But our Secretary of Defense says he appreciates the "restraint" that Ukraine has shown in taking the invasion while lying back and thinking of "reset."
We should have supported (with intelligence and supplies) Ukrainian efforts to fight for Crimea.
Even a losing effort would have had an effect on Putin.
