The Long Flip

The threat of Egypt to switch to Russian arms is empty, but just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean I don't have a small worry about it.

Since Egypt abandoned their Soviet alliance in 1978 after signing the US-brokered Camp David peace agreement with Israel, we've helped Egypt switch from a largely Soviet arsenal to a largely American arsenal.

But even after 35 years, Egypt still uses Soviet-designed stuff. Just check out the major equipment of the army to see that the flip from the Soviet Union to America is still going on.

So threats that some American pressure on Egypt could lead the Egyptians to flip to the Russians is over-stated, I think. Russia won't be willing to just make essentially free shipments of arms to Egypt unlike the Soviet Union.

And Egypt would throw their armed forces into turmoil with another flip as their American-designed weapons wear out without our spare parts and maintenance help and while troops must learn new Russian weapons (and complicate their logistics with more systems).

Unless China wants to make a huge, out-of-character play for influence in the Middle East by underwriting a massive rearmament of Egypt with Chinese weapons in exchange for Egypt becoming an ally of China, Egypt will hurt itself if it turns on America.

But you never can tell when someone will do something stupid.

I'm against cutting our military aid to Egypt. As a threat, cutting that aid is a drop in the bucket compared to aid coming from Gulf Arab states now. But as a conduit for quietly talking to Egypt's military, it is valuable.

I may not like the military-dominated government of Egypt, but I like the Moslem Brotherhood alternative even less. Let's keep our heads and quietly try to retain influence with Egypt's military using the access our arms support provides, and avoid giving some Egyptians an excuse to do something stupid by ejecting us in a fit of pride.