Monday, December 22, 2008

When is Enough Enough

We may be focused on other things, but the subcontinent is still primed for an ill-advised war as India remains deeply unhappy with Pakistan's response to the Mumbai massacres:

"Pakistan's response so far has demonstrated their earlier tendency to resort to a policy of denial and to seek to deflect and shift the blame and responsibility," India Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said.

Mukherjee reiterated that India was keeping all its options open after the Mumbai attacks, comments the Indian media have widely interpreted to mean that a military response was still possible. Mukherjee said that was not his intent.

At some point, Pakistani inaction may propel India, goaded by Indian public opinion, to do something.

This attitude (from my Jane's email updates) could push the Indian government on a path to all-out war:

"Enough is enough, go for war." Members of a candlelight vigil in Mumbai on 3 December call for military action against Pakistan after the 26 November Mumbai attacks.

Given the lack of robust second strike capabilities and short flight times, any major conventional war could lead to nuclear war between Pakistan and India.