Cutting off the Gulf completely is beyond Iran's capabilities. Our Navy and even our allies will help keep the oil flowing.
Iran could cut off their exports but that would deprive them of revenue and risks a blockade of refined oil products coming into Iran by America and our allies. If I am right and we've been squirreling away oil in preparation for a confrontation, this blunts the Iranian threat to halt its own oil sales.
And Israel, for all their tribulations in Lebanon, has blunted Hizbollah as a weapon to attack Israel if Iran is attacked.
And according to this article, the clamp down in Baghdad is starting to work. We shall see if this is a lull until the enemy reacts or whether we have mounted a successful operation. But the key is in the short run, perhaps Iran's ability to foment trouble in Iraq is blunted as well.
The article also has this interesting bit:
In the south, British troops abandoned their base in Maysan province, which had been under almost nightly attack, and prepared to head deep into the marshlands along the Iranian border to hunt gun smugglers.
The 600 soldiers will form a highly mobile unit traveling in stripped-down Land Rovers armed with heavy machine guns and will have no permanent base.
With our AC-130s in support, they could do a lot of damage. And this damage could be on defense or on offense.
So with Iranian options blunted, are we finally getting ready to strike Iran? Sending Brits to the border in this fashion could be to support Iranian troops in revolt, I think. Or it could be a recon screen to keep Iranians from penetrating to the Iraq side of the border to see other things going on. Perhaps. Just why the British would need to abandon their base for a defensive mission is beyond me. They need to draw supplies from somewhere. Are they drawing supply from a higher headquarters? Are the British troops released from duty in Muthanna Province, turned over to Iraqi authority last month, moving to jumping off points for action against Iran?
Or it could just be a defensive shield as advertised. I admit I'm looking for evidence of pending military action so am prone to see it.
But you never know.
On the other hand, the reaction by locals to the British evacuation is not exactly a sterling example of transitioning authority. Is looting a national sport or something?
