For the time being, large-scale PLA/PLAN amphibious operations against Taiwan proper remain inconceivable. Any operation would certainly involve significant collateral damage, betraying Beijing’s aim of peacefully coercing Taipei to halt or reverse its attempt to declare de jure independence.
Well, that settles that. Right? My scenario is unrealistic, right? Well, no. Not as far as I'm concerned.
The analysis may underestimate the ability of China's civil fleet to bolster an invasion effort that isn't done according to our exacting standards. By the book, Germany didn't have the ability to invade Norway in 1940. Yet it happened.
Also, even if the analysis is correct, we must keep in mind that "for the time being" just means not being ready to invade tomorrow. How ready were we for D-Day in June 1942? So even if right, it doesn't mean China won't be ready to go in two years. Like, oh, prior to the Peking Olympics?
And except for my doubts that China is all that opposed to collateral damage or deeply committed to peacefully winning.
Oh, and I must consider my long-standing cringe whenever somebody says something is "inconceivable." So often that word doesn't mean what the speaker thinks it means.
No time to let down our guard, I say.
