Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Vanguard of the Proletariat

The Chinese military is generally obsolete. Only a fraction is being trained up to modern standards:


Most of the Chinese armed forces are decidedly low tech, but several hundred thousand troops, an elite within the 2.1 million man force, are being groomed and equipped to show how China can fight high tech warfare.

This leads many to conclude that China is not a threat to us, with our across-the-board excellent military. Or a threat to China's neighbors with their generally top grade equipment.

I don't think that it is safe to assume that only several hundred thousand top quality troops, representing perhaps 15% of the total force, are not a threat since the remaining 85% are low tech.

One, several hundred thousand troops could well prove enough to destroy enemies of a lesser stature than ourselves.

Second, and more importantly, do not become confused about the ability of the excellent fifteen percent to drag along the other eighty-five percent.

In September 1939, only a tiny fraction of Nazi Germany's army was made up of the new panzer formations and motorized infantry. The vast majority of Germany's army was little-changed from 1918 and was composed of green troops in the hastily expanded army. Yet this army of largely foot-mobile infantry and horse-drawn artillery achieved the first victory in blitzkrieg spearheaded by the few mobile units using new methods of warfare (well, new to that generation anyway). And the equipment the German panzer units was actually rather obsolete rather than being first-rate.

Half a year later, the Germans did it again to the French and a little over a year later, to the Soviets. And in every case the panzers were but a small force in a horse-drawn infantry army.

China's fifteen percent will be better trained and better equipped than the 1939 or 1940 German armies.

So don't discount what the PLA fifteen percent can do to an enemy in the right circumstances.