1. India is not perceived as a major rival, unlike Japan or the U.S.
2. They believe the experience in Bosnia and Kosovo indicate America understands “political warfare” much better than China does.
3. They don’t seem to think we’re “bogged down” in Iraq so much as that we’re gaining valuable combat experience (maybe a million “seasoned” troops by the time it’s over) as well as learning all sorts of new tricks in how to fight insurgencies, and how to use new military technologies.
4. They don’t believe war with the US is likely, unless we mess with Taiwan.
Strategypage concludes:
The problem is that the Chinese leadership, in self-defense, have been using nationalism, and “big-bad-America” to distract the people from the corruption and other failings of the government. Don’t confuse the propaganda and hype with what the leadership really believe, and talk about among themselves.
These are not necessarily comforting.
The first point about India is comforting, for India appears to be lining up with us and given that the Chinese worry about the U.S. Navy cutting off their trade, India could do the same to the critical energy sea lines of communication to the Middle East and Africa running through the Indian Ocean. If China doesn't worry about India, they won't spend much effort trying to stop their rise and alliance with us. Score one for our side.
Second, the Chinese think we are not blindly technology focused and are good at the political aspects of military force.
Third, the Chinese worry about our combat experience should lay to rest the complaints that Iraq is breaking our military. First of all, our Navy and Air Force are not stressed overall by the war. Air transport is very busy, but otherwise these services are clear. And these would be the major players in any war with China. Second, while our Army and Marines are under stress due to the war, so far the combat experience is far outweighing the stress. If we can manage the stress or end it, our ground forces will emerge as the most battle-hardened, well-equipped, and skilled force on the planet. We will reap benefits for a generation as combat-proven soldiers and Marines advance up in rank.
So far you're thinking, so why isn't this comforting? These look pretty good for us.
Well, the fourth point that China "only" sees Taiwan as a potential trigger for conflict with America is the problem.
There is no "only" here. We could say "only" if the Chinese only foresaw conflict over Mischief Reef or something. The issue of Taiwan is a big deal since we are committed to defending this democracy against a totalitarian state. The fact that this is the only issue the Chinese are willing to fight us over should tell us just how important this issue is to China. They want Taiwan and Peking is willing to fight America to get it even when they can't foresee fighting America over any other issue. And they feel this way despite their respect for our military prowess.
And I don't think that you can seriously argue that simply throwing Taiwan to the wolves would end all sources of potential conflict. If Taiwan was absorbed, I guarantee that some other issue will become paramount and the nationalism used to stoke public opinion against America over the Taiwan issue will be transferred to another issue. The nationalism stoking is the goal--not necessarily the issue used as the pretext. And don't think that capturing Taiwan wouldn't be seen as a victory over us. It would whet their appetite for more such victories.
Indeed, if China became convinced that Taiwan could not be bullied or conquered, I bet China would decide something else is most important. For the nationalism-stoking business is of no use if the pretext to stir it up is invulnerable, right? Better to target something else within reach. Like Korea or Vietnam. I'm sure the Chinese can come up with centuries-old maps showing either region partly within China's sphere at some point.
So this nationalism is the main reason I worry about China. A regime insecure enough to stoke fear and anger to maintain support will find it is riding a tiger it cannot get off. Nationalism cannot be fine-tuned, and if the people demand military action because they are whipped up in a nationalistic frenzy, the leadership will not be able to resist the pressure to act--even against a militarily superior enemy. For if the leadership will not act, somebody else in the elites may decide that a popular war is the lever to pry the leadership out and to seize power themselves.
So the fact that Chinese leadership believes something completely different than what they say will not prevent them from acting on those statements in a crisis. And it could be over Taiwan. Or something else entirely if Taiwan ceases to be so important.
I would rather work on directing Chinese attention inland and away from the Pacific.
If the Chinese keep looking to the east and the sea, there could very well be a general war over some damn fool thing in East Asia.
