Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Still Winning

This article notes that enemy attacks in Iraq have increased substantially in 2005 over 2004.

The number of attacks against coalition troops, Iraqi security forces and civilians increased 29% last year, and insurgents are increasingly targeting Iraqis, the U.S. military says.

Insurgents launched 34,131 attacks last year, up from 26,496 the year before, according to U.S. military figures released Sunday.

Insurgents are widening their attacks to include the expanding Iraqi forces engaged in the fighting, said Brig. Gen. Donald Alston, a coalition spokesman.

He added, "It tells me the coalition and the Iraqi forces have been very aggressive in taking the fight to the enemy."

The number of trained and equipped Iraqi security forces has grown to 227,000. They outnumber U.S. forces in Iraq. They are often more exposed and are taking a more visible role in fighting the insurgency.

"They're easier targets," said Andrew Krepinevich, a counterinsurgency expert at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington-based defense think tank.

In 2005, 2,713 Iraqi police and military were killed, according to the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based think tank. Similar numbers for 2004 were not available, and Iraq's government has not released comprehensive casualty numbers for Iraqi security forces.

Thousands of Iraqi civilians have also been killed, but no precise tally is available.

U.S. forces have become more effective at protecting against attacks. In 2004, 714 U.S. troops were killed in action and 673 last year, despite the increase in attacks. The number of wounded dropped 26%, from 7,990 to 5,939 during the same period.

Strategypage provides necessary context, including emphasizing and not minimizing the fact that our total casualties are down a great deal.

Here's how Saddam's followers lost a second time. In 2004, American troops suffered 8,837 casualties in Iraq (ten percent fatal). In 2005, casualties declined by 23 percent, to 6,785 (12 percent fatal). That didn't make the news because the number of American dead remained about the same. That's too bad, because there were some more interesting patterns. For example, the number of attacks (mostly by Sunni Arab Iraqis) in 2005 was 34,131, an increase of 29 percent from 2004. That's attacks on foreign and Iraqi troops, and Iraqi civilians. But how can American casualties go down if the number of attacks are going up? Simple, there are a lot more Iraqi soldiers and police for the terrorists to attack, and they are getting hit. There have been a lot more Iraqi casualties. By the end of the year, about three times as many as the Americans were taking.


And as I've written, escalation does not mean we are losing. Our relative power is increasing over the enemy and they will eventually break.

And when the enemy finally breaks, it will be the Iraqi security forces themselves that will break them with our forces in a supporting role.

Really, I've noticed that I have rarely commented on Iraqi events lately. Despite hand wringing, it is just much more evident that we are winning and unless something unexpected happens, we (the Iraqis, ourselves, and the Coalition allies) are on a clear path to defeating the enemy insurgents and terrorists.