Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Are Drones the Silver Bullet From the Winter War of 2022?

In case you missed it on Substack: A Mongol Lesson in ISR and Command and Control

In case you missed it on Substack: A War By Any Other Name

In case you missed it on Substack: I'm Having Second Thoughts About Ground Drones

Ukraine’s suicide UUV forces Russia to expend more resources to defend their Black Sea warships.

Sure, small nations may be able to out-innovate large enemies. But God is still on the side of the big battalion. And Ukraine has received a lot of military and financial aid plus ISR and training help from the West.

But it’s okay because the Bad Orange Man said some mean things about Canada. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine hopes to kill Russia’s soldiers and economy to win. I doubt the killing path can work—if Putin loosens the escape valve. And China may increase help so Russia can better cope with increased production problems. But fingers crossed.

Yeah, I don’t assume the mullah regime in Iran is fragile. If the regime’s bully boys are willing and able to kill as many as it takes to win, the mullahs won’t fall this year.

China can no longer count on making money by selling green energy technology to the West that only harms Western economic resiliency.

Millions face starvation in Congo because those vying for power find that useful. Sadly those people don’t get 1% of the misplaced attention the Sainted International Community® bestows upon Gazans for pretending to starve.

The Baloch Liberation Army’s evolution from separatists to terrorists in Pakistan. Not generally on my radar.

Testing new XM1225 30mm ammunition to improve Apache helicopter anti-drone capabilities.

Testing Army’s 155mm Next-Generation Rocket Assisted Projectile (NGRAP) design for extended range.

Every Marine a rifleman drone operator? I have concerns about that path.

The Ford carrier strike group moved to the Caribbean to support operations; and is returning to the Middle East. I wonder what it quietly picked up while over here for use in the Middle East? A carrier quietly picked up helicopters for the failed Operation Eagle Claw back in 1980.

We seriously need to rethink the Marine role in national defense. I had thoughts about that in Joint Force Quarterly (how I got in that PhD magnet is beyond me) a quarter century ago that remain relevant.

Rejecting analysis paralysis for some new trendy defense jargon.

Canada may choose a non-U.S. fighter plane. The plane will be basically for continental air defense within NORAD. If Gripen makes sense for Canada and complements American aircraft, great! But if this is spite, that’s pathetic.

Has Xi made the PLA his personal military rather than the CCP’s military?

Thank you, India! “India has seized three U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers linked to Iran this month and stepped up surveillance in its maritime zone to curb ‌illicit trade[.]”

Sparks of resistance endure: “Some residents of Tehran on Sunday chanted slogans against the clerical leadership from balconies and windows, reports said, a day after Iranians abroad staged giant opposition rallies in Europe and North America.”

Eventually Russia will adapt: “A move by Elon Musk’s SpaceX to shut down Russia’s illegal use of Starlink satellite internet has dealt Moscow a fresh battlefield setback as its casualty rates soar.” Tip to Instapundit.

Cuba’s allies seem to have written off Cuba in the face of America’s squeeze on Cuba’s energy imports.

Sh*t got real: “Poland should look at developing its own nuclear weapons in light of the growing threat from Russia, President Karol Nawrocki said in an interview with Polsat News television.”

Huh: “The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Saturday that it conducted 10 strikes against more than 30 Islamic State targets in Syria between February 3 and February 12.” Maybe Iraq’s shield will hold.

The squeeze on Venezuela continues: “US forces boarded an oil tanker in the Indian Ocean that violated US President Donald Trump's blockade of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean and fled the region[.]”

Change: “Some Army officers will be shuttled into new job specialties or even transferred to a different service as certain jobs are eliminated, Military Times has learned.”

The Pentagon is in a hurry to counter drone threats to U.S. infrastructure.

The U.S. is fine with Europeans spending weapons procurement money at home. This is an interesting change given our 80-year record of being concerned allies will drag us into a war that might go nuclear.

A machine gun on a drone [VIDEO]. Let me know when we have a fighter drone to take on drone swarms as I asked for in Army magazine in 2018.

Hmmm: “As if morale in the Russian military was not bad enough because of the Ukraine war, members of the Russian Northern Fleet and their families suffered from a breakdown of heating systems.” Putin had best be careful.

I’d think that is a military issue in general: “Navies are still trying to find the optimum combination of technical and command skills needed to effectively run a warship.”

CENTCOM wants infrared-guided APKWS for its Air Force F-16s and Navy MH-60s to counter drone threats. I suggest putting them on A-Whacks aircraft, too.

Report to Congress on Iran’s nuclear programs.

Taiwan needs to arm up and train like its life depends on it if it wants to encourage American-led intervention—and buy America time to effectively intervene—if China attacks. My recent thoughts on Taiwan’s defense plans.

Lately I’m getting lots of random older post likes from people with no posts in their profile. I assume this is marketing. I don’t do that. I also assume this may mean my posts are getting some exposure to attract that attention. Maybe?

Well sure, plenty of people have reasons to stage a coup against Putin. I just don’t know how realistic it is to hope that will make things better.

The Army looks at aerial drone logistics. This improves on the GPS-guided parachutes.

The Japanese aren’t panicking over changing American national security policies. Japan is calmly and productively working with America to face China.

Chevron is betting big on refining Venezuelan heavy crude oil. Maybe soft regime change and reconstruction will work.

Somehow people see frenemies China and Russia as close allies; but see America and Europe as divorcing when that is not at all America’s intent.

The U.S. will deploy more weapons to the Philippines.

Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation agreement with Somalia. The Saudis need to protect the oil routes through the Red Sea. Did I call it back then, or what?

Russians who formerly recruited for the Wagner Group are recruiting for “Kremlin-sponsored sabotage attacks in Europe.”

Yikes, now that I think about the revolving door in London, British governments are lasting about as long as Cold War-era Italian governments.

Panama is more than a canal for American security. Interesting discussion of Tocumen International Airport. Is China too deeply dug in digitally to be ejected?

The Air Force says the “LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile to reach initial capability in the early 2030s[.]”

Due to a strike at the factory: “The Air Force has delayed delivery of the 18th Wing’s first F-15EX Eagle II fighters to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa[.]”

The Coast Guard steps up to defend lines of supply to the Western Pacific.

Welp, given the mutual reliance of America and Canada for the defense of North America, this sounds like a tantrum: “Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa’s new “Buy Canadian” defense strategy is aimed at reducing Canada’s reliance on the United States[.]”

Apparently, 65% of Germans are morons.

In response to seizures of Russian “shadow tankers”, “Russia threatens to deploy navy to protect vessels from ‘western piracy’[.]” Good luck with that.

Russia’s subliminal war: “Baltic Sea nations are alarmed after several power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages occurred since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.”

Putin’s glorification of casualties in the abstract sense appeals to those with no direct consequences: “Families of Russian soldiers have been complaining about the harsh treatment their sons, fathers, husbands and brothers have received while fighting in Ukraine.”

Is America right to mistrust the British government to protect the Diego Garcia military base? Given its importance, I say it is “trust but verify” time.

Penetrating China’s undersea shield in the Paracel Islands.

The cost of military action against an enemy is easy to calculate after the fact while the cost of inaction is theoretical. For Iran, we actually can see the non-nuclear cost of decades of inaction—or at least non-decisive action.

I do not know what Iran mission justifies extending Ford’s deployment. Unless, as I mentioned, it picked up a very special asset of some sort.

Romania wants NATO counter-drone assets given Russia’s actions over and near Romanian territory. To be fair, perhaps Romania should create such capabilities.

France shamelessly collaborates with oppression. Vance warned Europe to be worthy of America sacrificing for Europeans. But our influence—or lack thereof—affects that.

Ukraine adds UGVs to its drone forces. Perhaps these get better over time. But I’m just not impressed with direct combat UGVs so far.

War production: “Ukraine currently produces about 70 percent of the weapons it uses in its war with Russia.” Good. But these are the weapons geared to waging the war of attrition.

The U.S. may strike Iran as soon as Saturday (yesterday). America needed time to deploy forces to CENTCOM. And I assume Israel needed time to bolster the ability of Iranians to resist the mullahs. We may strike a king. Let’s see if we kill him.

Germany is willing to launch British or French nuclear warheads with its assets, much as it did with American warheads during the Cold War.

Well: “The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing all of its roughly 1,000 troops from Syria[.]” I am worried about Iraq without our ground shield and lots of jihadis in Syria. But I did worry about a Beirut bombing catastrophe with just a passive mission.

Huh: “The top commander overseeing US forces in Latin America, General Francis Donovan, and senior Pentagon official Joseph Humire made a surprise visit to Venezuela on Wednesday for security talks[.]”

Russia and China took part in Iranian exercises in the Hormuz Strait. Will they get out of the way?

America and Australia joined the Philippines to draw a line in the South China Sea in defense of freedom of navigation.

Considering Russian tests of NATO resolve in the Nordic-Baltic front. I call your test and raise a Kargil scenario at Narva (in Army magazine).

Easing Iraq’s internal problems due to mullah influence in Iraq would be a major positive effect of the fall of the mullah regime. I’ve long wanted those militias disbanded.

I deny that NATO’s deterrence against Russian attack is under pressure. Russia screwed the pooch in its two-week invasion and has decimated its military; while European NATO states are rearming. Get a grip.

About that special relationship: “The U.K. is reportedly preventing the U.S. from using Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford to attack Iran.” This protects brutal, nuclear-seeking Iran. Unless this dispute is to deceive Iran …

The U.S. helped move 6,000 ISIL fighters from a Syria prison to an Iraq prison.

Ukraine’s deep reach inside Russia.

Do cheap drones make attacking too difficult and expensive? Well, that’s what was once thought about the machine gun. Perhaps the same was said of crossbows?

Turkey’s drone carrier is operating with NATO forces in the Baltic Sea. Apparently, Russia’s threat in the Black Sea is recognized as minor.

Take care to have backups: “the Marine Corps is working with the joint force to craft a single network to prepare the service for a digitized battlefield.” Russia discovered the problem of relying on Starlink when they lost it.

More on NATO massing and coordinating artillery fires and drone defenses.

The Army seeks to expand drone skills with the “first annual Best Drone Warfighter Competition[.]”

China put a new 155mm naval gun on a test ship. The article notes its ability to support ground forces.

Has Xi Jinping crippled the PLA and destabilized the Indo-Pacific with his purges?

The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency basis for broad tariff powers. I suspected this would happen. And in the long run it is best for small government philosophy. I hoped the power would last long enough to do some good in balancing trade terms. We’ll see what happens.

Strategy: “The 2026 National Defense Strategy reestablishes homeland defense as a primary and contested mission, reflecting historical lessons that a secure interior is the foundation of American power projection.” Yes! America isn't retreating—it's reloading.

Can Gaza be de-radicalized? If not, “peace” is just reloading. We may have to quarantine Gazans who can’t let go of hate and let time work for us.

The Canadian military’s death spiral. I just want Canada to stop living in a fantasy defense world that prioritizes annoying Trump; and focus on not stinking on ice. Sigh. Canada fielded an entire army-level formation in Europe in World War II. Tip to Instapundit.

China doesn’t like what it regularly does to Japan and Taiwan: “US and Chinese fighter jets briefly faced off above waters near the Korean Peninsula this week[.]”

I always thought the mine ban was stupid: “Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Warsaw will soon be able to mine its eastern borders with Russia as his country officially exited the Ottawa Convention banning the use of land mines on Friday.”

The United States gave Iran a deadline for a deal, with implied American military action the alternative.

Is the FAA an obstacle to counter-drone efforts?

I sometimes say America is an empire if you squint and dim the lights. It may be convenient to assume that for purposes of limited comparisons. But America is not an empire that rules a world of colonies. We are very large and powerful, with global economic and security interests.

I worry that Chinese and Russian covert nuclear tests will lead to a situation where they have confidence their nukes will detonate and we just pray computer simulations are good enough.

Syria’s Christians sided with Alawites to survive surrounded by hostile Sunni Moslems. Now that Sunni Islamists overthrew Assad’s Alawite regime and run Syria, we will find we can’t “tame” these jihadis—and Syria’s Christians will die if they can’t get out.

Somebody is getting a bit defensive: “The Kremlin continues to crack down on former pro-Russian proxy forces and separatist leaders who criticized the Kremlin to consolidate control over the Russian information space.”

Russia really embraces disinformation—as did the Soviets.

Some details on the Caracas raid. 200 American special operations troops were involved. Would I be out of line to assume half were Rangers securing a perimeter?

How the 1257 Samalas volcano eruption changed history. Recall the 2010 Iceland eruption. Ash in the air closed airspaces in Europe. Imagine this in the Cold War. Could the Soviets have exploited a hiccup in the Atlantic air bridge? Or would the wartime military just fly through it as a relatively minor problem?

I keep wondering if the mullahs face revolution or fragmentation: “Five Kurdish Iranian opposition groups unite to form a powerful new coalition against Tehran’s regime, focusing on self-determination and democracy.” 

The Trans-Atlantic Relationship Will Endure

NATO will survive if for no other reason than it is useful for America. Trans-Atlantic relations are changing and not ending.

Well that’s boring: 

NATO kicked off operation Arctic Sentry to bolster the alliance’s posture in the high north, after weeks of deliberations by allies how to address claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that security threats in the region require the United States to take control of Greenland.

The reality of NATO simply working normally stands in great contrast to the hyperbole over the president's negotiating style. I can understand why allies get angry over his words. 

But there was zero chance America would go to war with NATO over Greenland. Breathe. Congress would impeach and convict the president on a bipartisan basis and halt funding for such a war. And if the president and Congress somehow went along, tens of thousands of American support troops in Europe would immediately become POWs. Our few combat brigades would take a bit longer to run out of supplies and surrender. Maybe our special forces guys could exfiltrate. 

The panic is self-serving for many. I'm looking mostly at you, EU.

NATO will be fine even if America has a smaller role under the new European security conditions we face now. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from article. 

I'm Having Second Thoughts About Ground Drones

 

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Ground drones are behind their air and sea brethren in becoming part of the kinetic party. While I can see sport utility vehicle (SUV)-size unmanned aerial vehicles (UGVs) developing a broad support and logistics role, I’m beginning to think that apart from narrow roles such as base or border defense roles, UGVs are not suitable for ground combat. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) should provide the combat role on the battlefield instead of ground drones.

Read the rest here. 

Putting the Non-Kinetics in the Black Box of Effects

Non-kinetics are being plugged into combat operations. This will help achieve the Black Box of Effects that I've long wanted.

This doesn't replace blowing things up, but it can contribute to defeating an enemy in battle when appropriate:

A new “non-kinetic effects cell” has helped push cyber operations to the forefront of specialized U.S. military missions such as the capture of Venezuela's leader in the capital of Caracas, a top official told lawmakers Wednesday.

The cell is “designed to integrate, coordinate and synchronize all of our non-kinetics into the planning, and then, of course, the execution of any operation globally,” Joint Staff Deputy Director for Global Operations Brig. Gen. R. Ryan Messer told the Senate Armed Services Committee’s cybersecurity panel.

Non-kinetic effects are military actions—think cyber operations, electronic warfare and influence campaigns—that influence or disrupt an adversary’s systems without using physical force or causing direct destruction. The operation that apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro included cyber effects that targeted radar, internet, and the city’s power grid, causing a temporary blackout. 

This was integrated into the special forces mission in the mission into Caracas. 

This author wonders if air plus cyber is a new strategic model. No. We needed boots on the ground in that special forces mission in Venezuela. We do not have Victory Through Air Power+ now.

In time this capability could be expanded to all conventional forces with a Black Box of Effects that determines what type of kinetic (like this future Army artillery system) or non-kinetic effect will best support the unit in contact calling for help in a combined arms fight.

And if these authors who may also have read Hammer's Slammers get their way for a Black Box of Effects integrated fires complex, air defense assets would be part of it.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

A War By Any Other Name

 

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

Stop the worship of “hybrid” war. It is just plain war. And the effort to define it as something other than war is analysis paralysis that lets enemies get away with waging war.

Read the rest here. 

The Pentagon Needs an Inventory of American Industry

What non-defense production enterprises could quickly be retooled to make war materiel? 

Make it so: 

American political and military leaders want to modify the way the industrial base of defense manufacturers and military planners work together. This will be done by improving flexibility, elasticity, and surge capacity. 

The system, as the illustration above shows, is complicated--with hidden vulnerabilities. 

The Army started acquisition changes:

The year 2025 will go down as a year of transformation for the US Army — quite literally, thanks to the Army Transformation Initiative and its sweeping acquisition overhaul. With this came new programs, more funding and shifts to how the Army potentially plans to work with its vendors.

Dealing with the existing vendors is great. But America's economy is huge. And the defense industrial base that supplies our peacetime military is limited. How could it expand to sustain a great power war? 

The Pentagon is on that with the new national defense strategy:

While the NDS does shift inward, it includes calls for scaling up the country’s defense industry at a level that will require large influxes of funding. The Pentagon calls for a “once-in-a-century revival” of industry by reshoring strategic industries and increasing capacity. ...

Doing so requires growing nontraditional vendors while partnering with traditional vendors, Congress, allies and partners and other departments, the document says. 

So the defense industry doesn't have to rely solely on the major peacetime vendors for expansion, the Pentagon should have a periodically--if not continuously--updated list of large and small American non-defense industrial and software firms matched to their potential for war production. 

The smaller companies couldn't compete with the primes, but perhaps they could bolster bottlenecks and vulnerabilities or provide the foundations for major system production.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Illustration from the second article.

A Mongol Lesson in ISR and Command and Control

 

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens.

Combined arms operations are under stress because new forms of battlefield intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) combined with better command and control capabilities and new aerial strike drones in a largely static front are crippling the ability of mobile protected firepower to break the stalemate. Let’s look at the 1223 battle at the Kalka River between the Mongols and the Russians.

Read the rest here. 

Russia's Day of Reckoning Creeps Closer

Russia failed to use its rebuilt military to break NATO, take Ukraine, and shake China's determination to reclaim what Russia took in China's Century of Humiliation 

Huh: 

China seems to expect Russia will pay for Chinese assistance to the Russian war in Ukraine by returning to China territories that Russia had seized in the past. This is another aspect of the growing split between Russia and China.

One form of payment is military technology that China hasn't mastered yet. Talk about selling the rope that will hang Russia. 

Russia placed their own nuts in China’s vise. And China is tightening it. Which is our opportunity.

Still, did China's ambitions spark a way out for Russia? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Map clipped from Guide of the World map. I added the arrows.

Are Drones the Silver Bullet From the Winter War of 2022?

Because Substack apparently doesn't allow search engines to identify articles there, I'm going to try publishing the introduction here and see what happens. 

I remain skeptical about proclaiming small drones the king of battle that will make all other weapons bow before them. The circumstances of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are unique and many of the lessons won’t apply to America because of our different means of waging war and because time will allow us to deploy counter-measures. 

Read the rest here. 

Incentives in War

Are suicide drones the best weapon or the most profitable one? Ukraine's drone strike bonus system will hurt the Ukrainian military.

This is interesting:

At least four out of every five successful Ukrainian strikes against Russia's forces are being carried out by drones, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy[.]

FPV recon and suicide air drones proved effective in the Winter War of 2022, and for Ukraine filled the gap during the artillery shell shortage. In addition, I've long thought their impact has been inflated by being the weapon uniquely able to advertise its successes with video. And I think the static nature of the front amplifies the impact of these aerial drones. But the statistics apparently show suicide drone dominance even as artillery shells seem to be sufficient now. Then I read this further along:

"Each of these strikes is recorded, which helps not only with hit verification but also with the operation of the bonus-based system for assessing military performance," the statement said, referring to a new system that rewards drone squads for video-recording their battlefield engagements.

For every confirmed kill, drone units are assigned points that can be used to procure equipment.

That's bad. Why would anybody choose the infantry that dies alone in the mud defending Ukraine when they can stay safe and collect bonuses? Do commanders use drones even when other assets would work better simply because of the lure of bonuses? And as one analyst asked, do Ukrainians target Russians based on ease of killing them for points rather than maximum effect on the Russians?

How long will it take for the more ambitious to fake verified hits to increase their bonus? And sell their equipment reward for actual cash. Which will undermine Ukraine's war effort.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

The Winter War of 2022 Balances the Ledgers

Ukraine has been able to cope with Russia's size advantage by getting Western assistance.

Russia seems to be trying to gather reserves for a summer 2026 offensive:

The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however.

Either the Russians have no interest in ending the war or the Russians want to push a better deal by acting as if they aren't desperate for a deal. 

Ukraine has more money to fight on:

At the end of 2025 European nations agreed to loan Ukraine $105 billion to help cover the Ukrainian non-military budget over the next two years. 

Ukraine is a good kill ratio and has allies with much higher GDP than Russia (which to be fair does have some help from China, Iran, and North Korea) to balance the scales that made it wrongly seem like Russia would inevitably win. Early in the war, I compared Russia's size advantage to Iran's advantages over Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War:

Like Iran, Russia has a 3:1 advantage in population. But Russian morale as a conqueror, that is clearly not liberating people from Nazis, is not superior. This could break Russia before Ukraine. ...

What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage. 

But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.

And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.

So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?

Has Trump given Russia and Ukraine a June deadline to end the war? You have to admit that if Trump then punishes Russia and Ukraine equally, Ukraine's much lower reliance on American help will really just put the screws to Russia.

Russia has not steamrollered Ukraine any more than Iran could steamroller Iraq with human wave assaults. Could Russia be looking for an excuse to end the war just as the Iranians seized on American intervention in the Persian Gulf in 1988 to end that war?  

Mind you, unless Russia's ground forces break, I don't see the Ukrainians willing to sacrifice the men and money to drive the Russians out of all--or even much--of Ukraine's territory that Russia has captured since 2014. And rumors of a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive developing rather than simple local counter-attacks exploiting Russian communications problems (Starlink cut off; and social media platforms like Telegram shut down by Moscow) aren't solid enough for me to change my mind on that issue. The planned presidential election and referendum on peace in May may be revealing on Ukrainian will to drive the enemy out, eh? 

But on the other side, does this mean Putin is more worried about internal enemies than about Ukraine?

Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms, media outlets, and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlin’s campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet.

Interesting. Is there an active threat? Or could Russia be imposing control before a dramatic step to end the war that could provoke online opposition from his pro-war base?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Photo from the peace deadline article. 

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Europe's Competing Fears

In case you missed it on Substack: Taiwan Reports On Its Defense

In case you missed it on Substack: Monkey Weapons For a Long War

In case you missed it on Substack: War Plan RED

The Army wants swarms of small ground drones. I have my doubts about that.

Things are heating up between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Taiwan wants ten small frigates to counter air and submarine threats.

Iran’s mullahs want to get the old band together for some “Death to America” rallies. Isn’t that what we’d call a target-rich environment?

I think the main thing we can learn from the Winter War of 2022 is the “accelerated offense-defense technological cycle” from the drone war.

Do Xi’s military purges increase the risk that Xi will receive no cautions about embarking on a war? Or were they standing in the way of preparing for the war Xi dreams about?

As I’ve said, America is not becoming isolationist: “Trumpism did not lead, as critics predicted, to isolationism and the abandonment of America’s allies and interests.” America is reorienting and reloading. And hoping to avoid ground wars.

Russian logistics failures—while good enough to keep fighting this war—undermine Russia’s military capabilities. Not that we should relax. But remember that Stalin’s World War II advances were aided by masses of Allied trucks that helped keep the Red Army moving.

So far, Russian opposition to waging war on Ukraine and $5 will get you a cup of coffee.

This year Singapore will get its first of an eventual 20 F-35s purchased.

Really interesting denial that drones ended maneuver: “History suggests that when armies falter, new weapons often rise to compensate: not because they transform war, but rather because they expose the weaknesses of those fighting it.” Maneuver is not dead.

Does the Venezuela air power and cyber demonstration show a new strategic model? No. There were boots on the ground in this special forces mission. It’s just one more thing in the combined arms kit.

China weakens helps Russia: “Ukraine receives satellite intelligence from the United States. Russian military satellites are in such bad shape that Russia must depend on China for satellite imagery.” Putting the “enemy” in “frenemy”.

The Pentagon wants swarms of UAVs that can be launched and recovered from boxes.

The Russians have worries about their SSBN bastion in the Arctic if American power in the region expands. Well, we have worries about Russian expansion, too.

Well of course American SSNs could operate out of Australia’s new SSN base.

Will the “temporary” yellow line n Gaza become Israel’s new border with Hamas? As long as Hamas refuses to surrender, yes. And maybe it is for the best.

That seems wise: “Planning a massive expansion of its armed forces by 2039, Poland is deliberately building a national capacity for sustained high-intensity war.” America is involved.

Bringing ISIL prisoners into Iraq from Syria to hold them is better than letting them escape in Syria to then threaten Iraq and the region. But only if they don’t escape in Iraq.

Russia’s shutdown of Telegram to stifle questions about Russian claims of inevitable victory over Ukraine will harm their own military which uses it rather than crappy military communications.

Somebody is under pressure: “U.S. military forces boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean after tracking the ship from the Caribbean Sea, the Pentagon said Monday.”

Maybe a carrier strike group shouldn’t be the only solution to a foreign crisis.

After nearly 25 years of effort to move 5,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam, we should say “never mind”? I’d rather not have them pinned on Okinawa under Chinese missile fire. And about keeping that Marine airfield on Okinawa.

I like to think modularity is a good idea that we screwed the pooch on with the LCS.

Huh: “Indonesia’s army is preparing up to 8,000 troops for a possible peacekeeping mission in Gaza[.]”

The diplomatic dance of American policy toward China as America says “nice snarling doggy” while reaching for a big stick.

I’d rather face the problems of a declining China and Russia than face the problems of a rising China and Russia better able to enable their aggressive goals.

Is China really brilliantly (somehow) pressuring Taiwan to take it over without force?Or just pretending—perhaps reinforcing a CCP ploy to “appear far”—that China isn’t planning for war.

American interference with Cuba’s oil imports is hurting that socialist Hell hole. Although implying that America’s refusal to trade causes Cuba’s past problems ignores that the rest of the world traded with Cuba. It’s ultimately a socialism problem.

It is interesting that the Special Forces cheap close air support plane for low and slow missions fighting insurgents is now getting stand-off weapons.

Advocates for the Air Force say it needs 300+ next-generation F-47 fighters and 200+ B-21 bombers.

The status of the potential Northwest Passage will be decided by capabilities and not laws. I feel the same way about the South China Sea.

I certainly want this crisis in Iran to be the one that overthrows the mullahs. But I’ve been hoping all my adult life.

A large American airlift to the Middle East is nothing relatively speaking without a massive sealift, too. But it could mean a significant non-ground campaign against Iran.

Huh: “According to reports, China conducted a low-yield nuclear explosive test [in 2020] and failed to disclose it.”

Arguing that Russia’s offensive hasn’t progressed beyond the scope of the 1916 Battle of the Somme on the World War I Western Front. I was all over that Western Front issue in Army magazine.

Pakistan’s military wants to maintain it political control inside Pakistan and wants help to confront India. China is glad to help.

Russia wages war on Europe to win the war against Ukraine.

Working to integrate small UAVs into American armored brigades.

Drone defense: “The Army signed a $5.2 million deal for the Bumblebee V2, a type of small inexpensive drone that counters enemy aircraft by crashing directly into them.“ Fighter drones!

Well, war is organized violence after all: “Buoyed by billions in investments into robotic systems, the Navy is considering how it will manage the swarms of unmanned surface, subsurface and aerial drones throughout the fleet.” I have my doubts about blue water USV swarms.

Helping those who help themselves: “The U.S. is sending 200 troops to Nigeria to train the country’s military to fight Islamist militants[.]”

Covid might look like a walk in the park by comparison. Please adjust your pucker factor to its fully upright position.

Two older Los Angeles boats are just the tip of the INDOPACOM SSN iceberg, right? I really don’t get why we do stunts like this.

I’m rather shocked that the president’s ability to use the National Guard was curtailed. I mean, I spent a lot of time in uniform mowing grass and cleaning things. It’s not unusual.

Cancelling the conversion of Marine MLRs at two—which I mentioned—is the beginning of restoring Marine capabilities divested in Force Design 2030. The MLRs could become forward observers, essentially, to call in fires from other units. To include Marine aircraft and helicopters?

Unless I’m missing something important, Britain’s effort to turn over the Chagos Islands, thus putting the Diego Garcia base at risk seems insane.

Yes, I worry that China’s arsenal of autocracy could overwhelm America in a years-long war.

Was this a mercenary business deal in Congo or an informal American expedition?

Forward defense of the North Atlantic: “The UK government has pledged to increase its military presence in Norway over the next three years, as part of efforts to combat Russian threats in the region.” The increase doubles their 1,000 troops. Building the bastion, eh?

Iran will not agree to real limits on uranium enrichment or ballistic missiles. Iran already has its model for a deal.

Did drug cartel UAV use prompt the U.S. to close the air space over El Paso, Texas?

This is not shocking at all: “The State Department has concluded that Code Pink and People's Forum are linked to Chinese influence operations, according to a report the agency sent to Congress.” Cause or effect? Tips to Instapundit.

Are 4th generation nuclear weapons small enough and different enough to be considered non-nuclear (by China—not their victims) warheads to overwhelm Taiwan’s missile defenses with long-range ballistic missiles? Or Guam or Okinawa, for that matter.

Unrest in Iran already defies claims that the 12-Day War would of course cause Iranians to rally around the flag. Is the situation different enough from past protest movements to collapse the mullah regime?

A second carrier strike group ordered to get ready for deploying to CENTCOM.

I think refusing to prosecute legislators for the unnecessary and terrible “illegal orders” video is correct (I was taught that as a new recruit). But former or retired officers should resign their commission and forfeit their pension if elected to office so they won’t violate the UCMJ.

The Air Force is working on hub and spoke deployments for aircraft in the Pacific to avoid being in the hub bullseye.

It seems like Britain is reaching out to fellow JEF member, Norway, to bolster defense against the Russian threat from the north. Defending the GIN Gap is better than the GIUK Gap, eh? Tip to Matthew Palmer.

The Navy gets anti-drone rifle ammunition. Add smart rifles as I addressed on the USNI Blog, and now we’re talking!

Star Orbital wars.

Well that’s boring: “American policymakers are telling European leaders not to expect major U.S. troop drawdowns anytime soon, according to seven U.S. and NATO officials, calming widespread fears across the continent’s capitals.”

Allies, friends, enemies, and foes get nervous when a country as powerful as America stops being predictable. But it is not random. I believe Trump is simply in a hurry to achieve things that can’t be done by blue ribbon white papers issued in five years and then ignored.

I just don’t see the purported opportunities that China is trying to exploit within America’s allegedly roiling alliances. Especially in Asia.

How will Japan’s Takaichi use her new mandate to change Japan?

The House of Representatives pushed back on Trump’s tariffs on Canada. I suspect his interpretation of his tariff powers are overly broad. But then again as I’ve often said, it’s not what government does that is illegal that shocks me, but what it does that is perfectly legal.

China’s program for espionage and to fund and focus useful idiots in democratic countries.

Post-Maduro Venezuela: “The downside is that after Maduro’s exit, Chavismo becomes a guerrilla group, and the upside is that oil revenues, better managed by a new business elite, are used to finance a reconstruction plan for Venezuela modeled on the Marshall Plan.” Fingers crossed.

Mission accomplished notwithstanding the absolute silliness of fearing America more than Russia: “NATO is beefing up its Arctic presence in a move designed less to deter Russia than it is to deter Donald Trump.”

Syria’s Islamist forces have occupied the evacuated American base at al-Tanf. Iraq is losing its shield. I just thank God we didn’t further militarize the Syrian conflict to help non-jihadis defeat Assad. All I can say in favor is that a war to hold our Syria bases would be a mistake.

The evolution of naval combat against a peer enemy means there will be few safe havens in a war. Or even none. The RAND report cited was written by Bradley Martin who I had as a TA in college. He was easily the best TA I had.

I simply don’t believe that North Korea’s blue water navy is a threat.

This is not America abandoning NATO: “Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby on Thursday called for NATO to be based on “partnership rather than dependency” ahead of talks with the military alliance’s defense ministers in Brussels.”

Can we build what we fund? “The fiscal 2027 defense budget could double the number of ships the Navy is set to procure under the fiscal 2026 defense budget[.]”

Japan is not bending to China’s pressure: “Japanese authorities have seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested the captain for allegedly defying an order to stop for ⁠inspection by fisheries authorities in Japan’s exclusive maritime economic zone, officials said.”

NATO’s Dynamic Front exercise: “The goal is to be able to shoot down 600 to 1200 ballistic missiles in a 24-hour period … as well as be able to fire on 1,500 [ground] targets during that same time.” So are the magazine’s still full in hour 25?

Sure, the American national defense strategy praises Trump a lot. It is uncomfortable to read. But let’s try context, eh? Recall how much the bureaucracy undermined the president in his first term. The price of that now is open expressions of support.

If we shot down a “party balloon” near El Paso rather than a drug cartel drone, we really need better abilities to track and identify small threats.

This defeated a drone swarm in a test: “The Coyote Block 3NK uses a non-kinetic payload to loiter and defeat UAS while aiming to reduce collateral damage.”

The Pentagon is seeking to protect the highly networked F-35 from being hacked. This type of problem was a worry of mine early on.

I think describing Russia’s strategy for "dominance" in Eurasia is kind of pointless given Russia’s face plant in Ukraine. Still, I see one path in Eurasia for survival.

The long path to transferring operational control of mostly South Korean forces during a war from America to South Korea. South Korea can handle much more of the jobs to defeat a North Korean invasion or attack. For America, horizons expand beyond the DMZ.

Is Xi losing control of his military? And could a war be started by the PLA not to achieve a foreign policy objective, but to wage that struggle?

Russia should worry about China and America settling their differences. China will not consider its vassal’s interests, so Russia should have a sense of urgency to settle its differences with America before China pounces. China is Russia’s frenemy—not partner without limits.

Cuba’s energy crisis deepens under American pressure.

Can America prevent Egypt’s persecution of its Christian minority? People forget that the Middle East bordering the Mediterranean was the center of Christianity until the Islamic empire conquered it. So more to the point, I wonder why the Pope doesn’t seem to care.

The U.S. is pushing Taiwan to spend more on defense. I’ve long wanted that.

FFS, this wasn’t a war game. It was a panic game. The United States would absolutely respond militarily if Russia attacked a NATO state.

The U.S. has the Bumblebee suicide drone to knock down attack drones. Counter-measures emerge.

The U.S. smuggled 6,000 Starlink terminals into Iran during this current wave of unrest. Would that support an actual insurrection timed with American-led strikes?

A U.S.-Taiwan trade deal includes Taiwanese investments in semiconductors, AI, and advanced electronics in the U.S. That’s interesting.

China is trying to mediate between Thailand and Cambodia. Also: “three months ago, Thai troops advanced further into Cambodia and seized a compound that had housed several thousand people engaged in scams [run by Chinese gangsters using stages of police stations or banks].”

Diluting China’s dominance: “India is making a multi-billion dollar effort to expand the Indian shipbuilding industry. Currently China builds 70 percent of commercial shipping while India builds only 7 percent.”

Method to Trump’s verbal madness: “Insufficient allied military surveillance and response infrastructure along the coast of east Greenland allows Russia to pose a credible and complex nuclear threat against both the U.S. homeland and the majority of NATO.”

America is preparing for a campaign against Iran lasting weeks. Does this indicate a campaign in support of a local insurrection?

Without a doubt American shipbuilding needs to learn from our allies.

America isn’t abandoning Europe. America is adapting its role to a new era. And it is a new era. But I understand why that change isn’t as relevant or apparent to Europeans when a reduced but still aggressive Russia is on their borders.

One more reason that America isn’t pro-Russian. We’re just trying surface niceness to get Russia to trust that we want their invasion of Ukraine to end more than we want Russia to be destroyed. Me too, honestly, despite my long support for a free Ukraine.

Erdogan has turned Turkey into a “soft” Islamist government. Democracy and the economy have been wrecked. Will Turkey change course?

The Dutch provide the Navy with a LST design.

Somalia. Welp … .

America is not walking away from Europe. America wants to be a partner with strong and confident European friends and allies. Rubio plays the “good cop” to Trump’s “bad cop.”

Putin really is a bastard: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in a remote Siberian prison two years ago, was almost certainly poisoned with a deadly toxin found in South American dart frogs, five European governments said Saturday.”

I recently read an author migrating away from Substack say that this platform doesn’t let search engines index articles. That shocked me. But when I look at statistics, hits from Google are rare. So now I will reproduce Substack article introductions on the TDR mothership with a link here for the full Substack article.