Why Do Westerners Act as Russia's Legal Team?

Admit that Russia is waging war on the West. We should not be producing an episode of CSI: NATO Article V.

Oh hogwash:

The increased frequency of underwater infrastructure damage across Europe has raised legal challenges related to the jurisdiction and ownership of undersea cables, which may limit NATO’s ability to respond.

The majority of critical undersea infrastructure is located in international waters, which means would-be saboteurs can take advantage of oversight gaps.

The effects of the sabotage are in NATO states. Case closed. Claiming we can't react is just doing Russia's legal work for them to pretend there is a loophole that prevents NATO from responding. The urge to ignore this war is strong.

As I've long said, hybrid war is simple. Russia attacks a country. Russia denies attacking a country. And the West goes along with Russia's lie. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Leading From Behind 2.0

Please tell me our foreign policy isn't to have the Europeans arm up and expect them to fight to defend America. That didn't work out so well in the first half of the 20th century. It was folly when Obama proposed it. And it is folly now.

Can Europe stand on its own? 

The United States is no longer an ‘ally’ of Europe, according to a former high-ranking figure in Nato. In an interview with Times Radio, Stefanie Babst, erstwhile deputy assistant secretary general of the alliance, said President Trump has ‘switched sides’ and aligned the US with Russia, led by the ‘war criminal’ Vladimir Putin. ‘I don’t think that the Trump administration is prepared to really commit any longer to Nato, to the trans-Atlantic alliance as such,’ said Babst, ‘and he couldn’t care really less for European security.’

Hogwash. The claim has been made before. Typical EU propaganda. Babst has apparently changed her tune on the issue of pressuring Europeans to rebuild their defenses a great deal since a year ago. To me it sounds like European Union wishful thinking. And when Macron joins in that chorus, understand his political exit strategy.

Europe could defend itself. With time. By design it doesn't without America to knit together atomized European capabilities. We should of course want stronger European--but not EU--military power within America-led NATO. We must not indulge in a reboot of "leading from behind" that pretends other countries will fight for American interests without consequences:

Welcome to the flip side of "leading from behind."

When we want allies who can fight without us taking the lead--wait for it--we get allies who can fight without us in the lead.

So they might fight in Vietnam. Or invade Egypt.

So to Americans who join EU and Russian calls to eradicate NATO, I say American influence in NATO must remain strong. So be careful what you wish for when you demand "Europe" stand on its own.

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Groupthink Led to Group Slaugher

Israeli defenses on the border with Gaza were scaled to deal with the worst-case threat Israelis expected and not the threat Hamas planned and executed.

Israel "assumed that Hamas was 'neither interested [in] nor preparing for a large-scale war' - a perception reinforced by Hamas's own deception tactics" prior to the October 7, 2023 rape, murder, and kidnapping invasion:

The report identifies a broad streak of complacency within the military about Hamas's intentions and how to deal with the threat it posed.

"There was no deep discussion of the question: What if we are wrong?" the report says.

Over time, "a significant and continuous gap between the intelligence assessments of Hamas and reality" had developed.

Real surprise takes place in the minds of the leadership.

Also, counting on allegedly kinder and gentler jihadis is suicidal.

UPDATE: In related news, Hamas will continue waging war behind Gazan human shields rather than disarm in a ceasefire.

UPDATE: The U.S. and Israel rejected Egypt's proposal for post-war Gaza.

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The Winter War of 2022 Becomes Afraid of Peace

Can Russia survive peace? Of course, to ask that question is to assume that Russia can survive more war.

The war goes on. Same death and destruction. New week. Although I will say that it feels like Ukraine is counter-attacking on a small scale more frequently the last few weeks. And it seems like Russian advances are slowing down. I don't know if this is is a new trend that will expand or just a blip.

Putin is afraid of demobilizing his soldiers if peace breaks out:

The Kremlin is intensifying a campaign launched in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society and an influx of alienated veterans in Russia likely because it perceives the demobilization of Russian veterans as a potential threat to regime stability. 

I've noted the problem of proliferating armed forces in Russia. And I've noted the risk of a new Time of Troubles in Russia. Can Russia really go on as it is?

Of course, if Putin uses a peace deal that ends the farcical portrayal of NATO as a threat to Russian territorial integrity in order to shift focus and troops to Central Asia and the Far East, he could avoid that problem. Far from Moscow, those troops could deter China from bullying Russia for concessions. Or ejecting Russian influence from Central Asia or physically taking Far East territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.

But Russia can never be in NATO, even if Russia becomes a democracy. If NATO members have trouble thinking it should worry about the Dnipro River, those members aren't going to defend the Amur River. 

UPDATE (Monday): Russia seems to fear a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal as a de facto American trip wire in the east.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Zelensky is getting the signal that he needs to be publicly on board a diplomatic path a little bit faster:

Ukraine said on Tuesday it would do all it can to maintain its ties with the United States, after President Donald Trump paused military aid to Kyiv in the most dramatic step yet in his pivot towards closer ties with Russia.

The military aid is paused and not ended. I'm assuming intelligence sharing and other such things continue during the pause.

But I hope the military aid suspension is brief so that Ukrainian troops on the front aren't affected. Memories of the 2021 Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle may not have faded enough.

In a related item, I heard or read--I can't remember where, but the important thing is that the observation isn't originally mine--that Russians are upset with the seemingly friendly Russia-America vibe. After decades of propaganda about the faux America threat through NATO, having the Russian government treat America like a friend aligned with Russia is causing great dissonance.

How will that affect Russian troops supposedly fighting and dying to save Russia from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil? 

UPDATE (Tuesday): One reason I think the breach between Trump and Zelensky will be healed is that the entire televised meeting was 90+% amiable. Those panicking seem to have only watched four minutes of mutual anger. I admit that the four minutes were disconcerting to me. I said so last week. 

But the public display of mutual anger and frustration was triggered by Zelensky. Perhaps too used to applause wherever he goes in the West, he failed to act like a man whose country needs America desperately. He instead--for those disastrous few minutes--acted like a rock star signing autographs and taking selfies for fans. Adjust fast, President Zelensky.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I don't think we should pressure Zelensky into resigning to promote peace talks. Maybe do Putin first.

Didn't we learn the lesson of seeking victory through destabilizing regime change in friendly Saigon during the Vietnam War? 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Zelensky publicly stated his willingness to work for peace with Trump; and his goal of signing the rare earths mining deal with America.

This is hardly a shock, notwithstanding the hyperventilating. Nor was timing it to coincide with the president's speech to a joint session of Congress. 

And I'm sure Zelesnky understands that speaking about how peace must not be a ceasefire that simply gives Putin a chance to reload should be done in private talks. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Hopefully the American military aid pause is brief now that Zelesnky is inside the tent pissing out rather than the reverse. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Welp, should not have assumed continuing intelligence sharing during the military aid pause. Via Instapundit. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Huh:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly developing a plan to partially demobilize a limited number of mobilized personnel no earlier than July 2025, likely to address growing societal backlash over the lack of rotations and demobilization of Russian mobilized troops for over two years.

Well that's interesting. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

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Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

The Russians don't pursue good or evil--just empire: "Russia is trying to negotiate a deal with the new Syrian government for continued use of these bases. Russia offers cash and other benefits. The new Syrian government needs all the help it can get." 

In case you missed it on Substack: Reimagining a Palestinian State.

In case you missed it on Substack: Robots Crawl to a Small Victory.

In case you missed it on Substack: Supply and Demand in Warfare.

In case you missed it on Substack: China Probably Isn't an Imminent Threat.

Just going to note that Libyans did not get together and work out their differences without a so-called harmful American presence after the American-supported drive-by shooting against Khadaffi in 2011.

Ukraine trains while Russia sends barely trained recruits to die.

Iran wants to open up the West Bank as a war front against Israel. So everyone finds out. 

France exercises using its sole aircraft carrier with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Drone-equipped Marines have joined the NATO Baltic Sentry mission to protect undersea infrastructure.

China's military was ordered to be ready for "engaging in combat" in the spring. These orders seem to pop up again and again. Is this routine for internal purposes or is it lulling us to let our guard down? Beats me.

A Marine major general participated in Taiwanese military exercises. Huh. 

Could building prototype unmanned warships and testing them in the real world speed warship design and production? Heck, is there a quicker path?

The F-22 is getting its engines upgraded.

I suspect the French government sent a bloodless message to Russia to back off its "hybrid" warfare of intimidation inside France.

The British fling their ultimate insult at Germany. 

As the British confront the need to bolster their military, the actual invasion continues unabated. 

Is suspended American humanitarian aid really the difference between life and death in the Horn of Africa region? Although it seems like slashing corrupt USAID could free up actual aid even as spending on expenditures is reduced. Should the EU jump on that problem? Uh oh.

"Maximum pressure" is back: "The U.S. Department of State is today designating 16 entities and vessels for their involvement in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical industry."

Hey Russia and Belarus, we have nukes that can hit you, too. It's some nice visible support for the NATO Baltic States.

Truman is patched up and back in action after its unfortunate fender bender just north of the Suez Canal.

Reviewing the fall of Assad and the lull in the multi-war. I think it will resume.

Maritime shipping insurance and the Suez Canal fee challenge. I'll add that if the Iran-sponsored Houthi can strike Israel with missiles, they can strike the Suez Canal. 

Don't let China's historic claim of ruling everything under Heaven get too literal: "China’s space strategy is shaped by military ambitions, aspirations for technological dominance, and ubiquitous commercial considerations."

DOGE goes after the DOD. My brief observation on Substack.

Ukraine and Russia are producing huge numbers of often disposable drones.

Defining the carrot.

North Korea apparently pulled off the biggest crypto-currency theft in history--$1.4 billion. It's tough to sanction a country when rulers only care about their own luxurious lifestyle--and nukes. I've long felt claims of crypto-currency absolute security is nonsense. What is created by Man can be cracked by Man.

America has reclaimed the mantle of the shining light on a hill by embracing freedoms of speech and religion. Europeans need that light. Tips to Instapundit. Indeed, as I wrote on Substack. 

Trump has absolutely not ordered a U-turn in policy to abandon Ukraine. I say this as someone who has long backed Ukraine against Russian domination. Support for Ukraine continues. What we see is often uncomfortable diplomatic posturing. If you feel whiplash, it is self-inflicted. Breathe, people. Breathe.

Perhaps I was hasty in assuming French agents safely bombed a Russian consulate in France as a warning to Putin. But just "perhaps".

Spite, harassment, or ratcheting up the "peacetime" baseline? "Taiwan's coast guard said it detained a China-linked cargo ship on Tuesday after a nearby undersea cable to the Penghu Islands in the sensitive Taiwan Strait was disconnected."

The Philippines and Japan stand closer under Chinese pressure.

China's "massive" WZ-9 drone is operating on China's Hainan Island. 

Patching a command problem.

Hey sainted international community, good luck with that! 

LCS redemption? Hmmm. We'll see.

Vance was right to condemn Europe's slide to autocracy. Indeed. It's not us--it's you. The European Union will cement that slide. And their justification for such power is absurd.

China's expanding naval reach threatens Australia as a maritime power. Indeed. And Australia's defense path makes sense to defeat that threat. Including SSNs/SSGNs.

With what? Suicidal devotion to Kim Jung Un and one meal per day?

If Canada' choice is between a focus on the Arctic or closer defense ties to the EU (not NATO?!), the choice is clear. As if the EU rather than America will rush to Canada's defense! And it's clear even if the alternative is more power to Europe through NATO.

No substitute for victory in Ukraine. Do read it. The author wants Ukrainian reserves to exploit a fleeting opportunity for victory. I wanted that in 2022. Now is better than never. I don't care if victory is diplomatic or on the battlefield. Victory should be the first objective. Sadly, many find a plethora of substitutes. 

Poland scrambled aircraft in case a Russian missile strike on western Ukraine threatened Polish territory.

The UK, France, and Germany gave Iran until June 30th to conclude a nuclear deal or face "snapback" UN sanctions. I have strong doubts these are as legal as portrayed by the original awful deal. Will Russia and China really let this sail through without objection?

We need nuclear gravity bombs. If you want a limited perhaps single strike to show seriousness whether it is a first or second use, using a missile risks a major miss. Circular Error Probable means there is a 50% chance the warhead lands outside the circle. Potentially way outside. Gravity and wind limit bomb misses.

That would certainly have humor value. I bet member state delegations would shrink significantly. 

Embarrassing, I'm sure. But not exactly Epstein's client list level of impact. 

Seriously digging out waste in the Pentagon is needed to boost our defenses and actually cut our budget deficit. Give it a chance. Panic-mongering annoys me. A lot. Also, why our defense spending is so high. Perhaps not my most comprehensive post, but it's the one I found quickly.

But his family, friends, and post-government potential employers would object to complying with mere voters. 

If America withdraws troops from Syria, the ISIL terror threat will revive. I'm sympathetic to the call to get out. But if we don't have someone else to keep ISIL suppressed, understand that more terrorism will be a price of withdrawing. I don't trust Syria's new jihadi rulers to fight other jihadis for us.

South Korea reports that more North Korean troops have arrived in Russia.

The Army will field its first hypersonic missile by the end of September. At some level the Multidomain Task Force seems like the Army conceding it has no missions in its core competency.

The Australian navy welcomes its future at Perth.

With difficulties, Russia is slowly replacing its sea-based nuclear deterrent force. Honestly, I want the paranoid Russians to have a secure nuclear deterrent.

Face reality: North Korea is a nuclear power. I see we've reached the last of the four-stage isolationist foreign policy strategy:

 

Investigating the sources of the Gettysburg friendly fire incident. Was the crew trained enough to even enter the shooting gallery?

Palestinians are their own worst enemy: "The Palestinians have been able to miss one opportunity after another because doing so has brought no lasting diplomatic consequences." The queen expects deference.

What American allies provide enough defense capabilities. GDP burden is crude. I know it over-states Greece's spending. Willingness to fight at our side and endure casualties are good measures for seriousness. That counts a lot. Interesting final number based on five categories. But I think it is ... off.

Ramping up Canadian military capabilities to work with America. Go north, Ottawa.

There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today. And our flag officers, too.

Michigan's governor wants Selfridge Air National Guard Base to get another squadron to replace the soon-to-be-scrapped A-10 unit. When I worked for the state legislature I wrote a number of resolutions defending the role of the base to prevent possible closure.

All of the B-1 bombers at a base slated to be updated for the B-21 flew off to other bases. The 'ol Bone still has meat on it. 

Trump: "the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it." True. But he's talking about tariffs. It is much, much bigger than that.

Putin is sad he is no Stalin: "Russia has not resorted to extreme measures to motivate their soldiers."

Iran loses the Levant.

Because doing that would be stupid: "Israeli media reported on Thursday that the Israeli army will not withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border, as agreed in the ceasefire deal." 

A senior Air Force general said the "Air Force wants to emphasize more long-range strikes but cannot rely on them too heavily." He wants mass, too. Sure. Keep going.

GAO: "Problems in Navy shipbuilding and repair have remained relatively unchanged over the past decades."

Huh: "Iran is conducting a campaign to extract sensitive U.S. data and use it to harm Americans and our allies, and policymakers are not doing enough to stop it." One theory says we don't try hard enough to be Iran's friend. 

I reject the premise of this article that America is abandoning Europe. I say "Europe" complains about whatever America's policy is at the moment. But sure, Germany has a choice to make. 

I think we'll see Hamas victory dances scaled back: "Israeli decision-makers plan to resume the Gaza war in four to six weeks with overwhelming force, sending in tens of thousands of troops to conquer the entire strip in a single coordinated offensive against Hamas."

Ukraine produces lots: "In some sectors of the front drones inflict 90 percent of the casualties, but overall drones are responsible for about 60% of Russian casualties." FPV drones are personnel-intensive precision ammunition. And require other forces to keep the Russians fixed to be targeted.

Russia's crown jewel of their conquests: "Because of the continued Ukrainian missile and drone attack, the Russian ship repair activities in Crimea have been shut down. " I had thoughts.

China's extensive control of port operations worldwide is a strategic asset for intelligence gathering, sabotage, and infiltration. 

I don't know if the way-too-premature panic about the state of US-Ukraine relations is calculated for political advantage or not.

A U.S. infantry battalion trains for combat in INDOPACOM. Crawl, walk, run. Just in case.

FFS: "Almost 100 Air Force Academy cadets have admitted to cheating or tolerating it during a weekly knowledge test, typically required for freshmen." What does holding them accountable mean? Do we need to sacrifice them to remind future and current officers that their oath matters?

A call for NATO to copy Russian long-range glide bombs to avoid air defenses. Sure. But remember that the Russian attacks are simple bombardment rather than close air support for friendly troops in contact with the enemy. 

FFS: "The Air Force will inspect its entire fleet of 89 KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers after cracks were found on two of the four new planes set to be sent to the Military Delivery Center"

The US is sending a Stryker brigade and an aviation brigade to support southern border security. 

Red storm writhing. But I don't fling panties at naval suicide drones. As for Russia's crippled Mediterranean flotilla? Saves them from a future naval disaster, IMO.

China prepares conventional and unconventional means to land troops on Taiwan. It adds up, eh? 

"Requires" and "has" are different things: "Germany requires a new form of military service to meet its growing defence needs, a leading general has said."

Israel is not obligated to be its enemy's logistics branch. 

Carrots alone can't entice Russia into abandoning their war of conquest on Ukraine. Keep the stick in Ukraine's hands.

Sometimes memory fails you. I try to keep that in mind and sometimes qualify statements with "if memory serves me." I recently discovered I started referring to Rumor Intelligence as RUMORINT. I actually checked and years ago I evolved from RUMINT to RUMORINT. Oops. I fixed the errors.

Do Autocrats Have an Instinct to Gamble?

The World War II Axis saw our enemies take big risks with little chance of success, to our ultimate advantage. We might eventually see Russia's decision to invade Ukraine three years ago in the same light. China might do that, too. Is this baked in to autocratic leadership?

Interesting point about Axis decision-making:

Each strategic mega-gamble—Hitler’s double-cross of Stalin, Japan’s move against Pearl Harbor—made a certain sense in the mental world Axis leaders inhabited. Taken together, they were a master class in self-harm. No matter how close the Axis came to victory, no matter how impressively their militaries performed, there was something perverse about strategies that risked everything on a mad rush for hegemony—with strategic death as the consequence of failure. And if the decisions were perverse, so were the processes that yielded them.

Regardless of the self-harm German and Japanese decisions unleashed in themselves, a lot of people still suffered and died to defeat the nearly doomed decisions to wage big wars to achieve greatness.

I'm not sure where you put the 1944 Allied D-Day landings in France, which if a failure would have led to an invasion a year or two later. Or perhaps landing in France at Soviet-controlled ports.

But the point is still good. But don't draw comfort from the notion that China would never be so foolish as to roll the dice by going to war with America and its allies. If you are counting on that legendary Chinese long-range thinking, guess again.

Or the Chinese Communist Party might accept a lot of destruction if it sees war as the least bad option open to them:

And don't rule out the possibility that the Chinese Communist party might wreck the state of China to remain dominant in whatever is left--the Soviet communists traded away a lot of Russia in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk to end their role in World War I, after all. And that objective of party control, after all, was the point of the Cultural Revolution's decade-long madness, death, and destruction.

The Russians are bleeding out in Ukraine with their three week war reaching three years. That seems like a big gamble that failed.

Iran waged war on Israel through proxies and directly. That's not working out so well.

Hamas went for broke with a rape and murder invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, provoking a destructive counteroffensive.

Al Qaeda committed mass murder within America on September 11, 2001, provoking a counteroffensive that decimated it and left its leader as fish food.

What might North Korea try?

Autocrat rational isn't our rational. They may see a path to victory that we don't see. And who will tell them that they are wrong?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Welcome to the Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser Party, Pal

It has been proposed that container ships with weapons and equipment in shipping containers could create auxiliary cruisers to provide needed numbers for the Navy. I proposed the same thing many years ago.

The latest USNI Proceedings has this essay urging auxiliary cruisers using containerized systems mounted on container ships:

In the past half decade, innovators have heeded calls to increase the Navy’s ship count by putting containerized missiles on merchant ships. They have improved the weapons, drones, and sensors to the point the Navy is experimenting with mounting them on container ships. Even so, U.S. politicians, military leaders, and analysts continue to overemphasize the number of destroyers, cruisers, frigates, etc., the Navy needs. But the Navy has acknowledged it cannot meet its goal of 380-plus ships any time soon[.]

If numbers matter, we should pursue numbers.

I proposed a modularized auxiliary cruiser long ago. But contrary to the image above, after seeing a number of photos of container ships with stacked containers tilted and in danger of tumbling off, I suggested stacking the containerized mission modules isn't ideal. Lots of containers fall off container ships--1,500 per year--from many causes not even related to combat:

This included stormy weather, ship design, propulsion issues and how containers are lashed together, including varying regulations around the latter. The degradation of containers and resulting metal fatigue could also be considerations.

After USNI sat on my essay for close to a year, I retracted it, eventually adapted it for power projection missions in AFRICOM, and sent it to Military Review, where it won third place in their annual contest. 

I recently wrote about the concept. And I've noted the cited Dutch development.

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Supplies Are Not a Luxury

One reason our military budget is so large is that we have to spend so much just to get our troops and equipment to the fight overseas and sustain them there even before we train and equip one member of our military. We got used to not thinking about that. That's a problem if we don't want isolated troops surrendering in large numbers overseas.

Yeah: 

The U.S. military’s reliance on commercial providers for sealift and airlift is not viable should a conflict arise, and the Defense Department is hoping partnerships with allies will improve its sustainment processes, a Pentagon official said Feb. 11.

During peacetime, commercial industry provides the military 90 percent of its sealift and personnel airlift, and about 40 percent of its cargo airlift requirements, said Leigh Method, who is currently performing the duties of principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for sustainment.

We've also gotten used to the luxury of doing maintenance back in the continental United States instead of overseas.  But what was a sanctuary in the "end of history" era is no more. 

Power with no projection is no power at all. We started addressing the problem. But we have to scale it up significantly.

And the problem gets even worse.

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NOTE: Photo from the U.S. Army.