Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy, Part 5: The Middle East

In case you missed it on Substack: Space Supply!

In case you missed it on Substack: Marine Aviation Force Design

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy, Part 6: Africa

Germany's future large USV called a remote missile vessel: "The LRMV has no fire control equipment and depends on encrypted signals from the frigates about where the targets are and when to fire on them. I mentioned Germany's LRMV and embraced its use as an external magazine ship for Navy warships here.

China began reorganizing and upgrading its special forces in 2017: "China believes it will take until 2049 for Chinese SOF training and equipment upgrades to be complete. At that point China will have over 40,000 SOF personnel."

Hopefully this enables and motivates Nigeria to do the job: "Nigeria, which is battling multiple armed groups, said the U.S. strikes were part of an exchange of intelligence and strategic coordination between the two countries."

Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget, with an eye on China. 

The latest DOD report to Congress on China's military power. 

American companies must not be intimidated the way Europeans have into not arming Taiwan: "Beijing imposed sanctions on Friday against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 executives, a week after Washington announced large-scale arms sales to Taiwan." And reverse freezing their assets in China. 

Diplomacy continues regarding the Winter War of 2022, including Zelensky meeting Trump in Florida. 

I have strong doubts that this British Military Experience Camp will do much to rebuild the British military. Half in the past have enlisted for real. How many of them would have anyway?

DF-27: "The Pentagon has claimed that Chinese missile forces are operating a new type of anti-ship ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States[.]" Plus much of the Indian Ocean and covering the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. And the Black Sea for giggles.

Threats: "China's military conducted live-fire military drills around Taiwan on Monday in what a Chinese official said marked 'a stern warning' against 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces and external interference." Don't assume China can't invade Taiwan.

I assumed Ford would not remain in the Caribbean for long after its long deployment in the Eastern Hemisphere.

The "strange" fear of Russia. Yes, Russia has had trouble conquering bits of Ukraine. So fear is overblown for total conquest of Europe. But just as Ukraine can't eject a functioning Russian army, Russia--backed by nukes--could gnaw at NATO territory. Eventually NATO might crack. So yes, fear it enough to prepare.

The European Union only wants rubber stamp democracy. Votes--and thoughts--that go against the EU are illegitimate in its eyes: "Thousands of Europeans are jailed annually by the regime for tweets." Gosh, what on Earth was Vance thinking?

Well, Cambodia has been a loyal client of China: "China took thinly veiled swipes at President Donald Trump’s efforts to end a border clash between Thailand and Cambodia, with Beijing seeking a role as a peacemaker between the Southeast Asian neighbors." 

Tenth Mountain Division established an attack drone unit: "The division on Dec. 16 established Fox Company, 1-10 Attack Battalion, under its 10th Combat Aviation Brigade." We'll see if it does the job better than attack helicopters. 

Strike or cover for other means? "President Donald Trump has indicated that the U.S. has “hit” a dock facility along a shore as he wages a pressure campaign on Venezuela, but the U.S. offered few details." 

Normally that would be stupid: "Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country is engaged in a 'full-fledged war with America, Israel, and Europe.'" But too many in the West don't believe him or think they are the exception. Question: How will Europe deal with its Islam problem if Iran gets nukes?

China's growing space launch capability.

"Turns to"?! "Hezbollah terrorists are flocking to Venezuela as the terror group—and Iran's most important proxy—increasingly turns to drug trafficking as a way to raise revenue in the aftermath of Israel's successful campaigns[.]" Letting them sell drugs was a price for the awful Iran nuke deal!!

Protests on a small scale have taken place in Iran. Blip? Or more?

Oh. Hello pucker factor: "The United States is trying to do something about Chinese dominance in shipbuilding. ... U.S. government efforts to revive American shipbuilding have so far come to nothing."

Sanctions aren't a silver bullet. But they have added to Russian problems: "Off the battlefield, one of the hardest hit entities is the Russian economy from economic sanctions by NATO countries." 

The missiles are too expensive to replace all missiles. But [gulp]: "China’s surface combatants are set to receive a new hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability following the finalization tests of the YJ-20 from a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) destroyer." 

I ignore Democratic hysteria over Putin. I believe Trump is trying to be the "good cop" to wean Russia from its vassalage under China. But  the SOB Putin keeps being the turd in the punch bowl. Putin better hope that China doesn't get a better trade deal for cutting off Russia from Chinese support.

Huh: "Saudi Arabia bombed an arms shipment from the United Arab Emirates bound for separatist forces in Yemen." Not the Houthi's, a different faction in the three-way internal divide ( plus al Qaeda ...).

Israel may go to war in Lebanon if Hezbollah doesn't withdraw further north. Honestly, I think Israel needs Hezbollah cleared out as far north as the Bekaa Valley to prevent the terrorist group from reconstituting a threat against Israel.

Iran is cruising for a bruising from Israel again. Would Israel strike similar military and nuclear targets to stop reconstitution of Iran's missile capabilities? Or expand to economic targets? That's riskier given Israel's vulnerable desalinization plants.

The European Union's five stages of grief over the demise of the trans-Atlantic relationship? Oh, please! Those are Crocodile Tears. The EU's primary immediate goal is to eject America from Europe. The demise of the trans-Atlantic relationship is over-blown. But I do want America firmly in NATO.

Denmark tries to close the refugee spigot without preventing beneficial immigration. 

Well, sure, drive-by strikes on jihadis in Nigeria aren't a silver-bullet solution. Ultimately, Nigeria has to defeat them. 

I guess we now know why Russia claimed Ukraine tried to kill Putin.

Israel wants 25 new F-15IA aircraft with an option for 25 more.

CENTCOM killed or captured nearly 25 ISIL operatives: "Over a nine-day period, U.S. and allied forces conducted 11 operations that killed at least seven ISIS fighters and destroyed four of the group’s weapons caches[.]" 

America will revive Nifty Nugget to test whether America can mobilize its forces globally for a major war. The last one did not go well. Let's see if we remembered what we learned in 1978 to mobilize reserves for a fight in INDOPACOM.

The Venezuelan tanker America has been chasing for ten days painted a Russian flag on its hull, apparently claiming Russian protection. Probably a bluff. But if so, this is a problem that arises when you telegraph your threat to board.

Huh: "The United Arab Emirates said it will withdraw forces from Yemen following a flare up in tensions with Gulf ally Saudi Arabia over military operations in the conflict-hit country." I predict that the UAE doesn't withdraw from all Yemen territory.

America's allies and partners should base their defense on a "porcupine" strategy? Careful, there. Picking weapons that are most effective against enemy capabilities is good. But too often "porcupine" advocates slide into silver bullet wonder weapon worship that is a suicide pact.

The Soviets and now the Russians insist NATO is a danger that might rouse itself from slumber and march on Moscow: "This is a bad habit that Russia is having a difficult time overcoming even though the old Soviet Union collapsed from, among other things, doing the same thing." 

Strategersky: "Not only is China reducing economic cooperation with Russia, but it has also raised the issue of extensive portions of Russia’s Far Eastern Pacific coastal provinces that are claimed by China."

How many Americans are stupid enough risk Russia arresting them to trade for a Russian spy? "The State Department has updated its travel warning for Americans planning to or who are already visiting Russia. On Tuesday, the agency reissued a Level 4 travel warning for Russia that was announced in May." 

Iran responded to Trump's threat over Iran's nuclear missile ambitions by warning they could defend themselves preemptively. I guess 47 years of spittle-flecked "Death to America!" chants aren't threats.

Huh: "Mass protests have erupted across Iran calling for “death to the dictator” over the regime’s economic crisis." Of intense interest to me is that sending B-2 bombers didn't cause Iranians to rally around the mullahs, as opponents of dealing with enemy governments always claim. 

China's military exercises around Taiwan included "a simulated drill involving the seizure of key ports and a special forces raid." Indeed.

If Russia was truly thankful for Trump, their people would never have said it out loud. They're just giving opponents of Trump here and abroad ammunition. 

Celebrating Marine Corps transformation in 2025. I'll just step aside as you celebrate that clusterf**k. 

Russia might not be behind it. But that's the way to bet: "Finnish authorities have seized a vessel suspected of damaging a critical underwater telecommunications cable linking its capital city Helsinki and Estonia's capital, Tallinn." 

Gosh, why on Earth would America oppose the European Union? Do not become confused. The EU is promoting--not lamenting--a breakdown in trans-Atlantic relations for its own ambitions. Defeating the EU is a third of why America should continue to lead NATO.

Iran is apparently cracking down on expanded protests. 

Iran's foreign minister lies that talks with America could benefit us both. Hogwash. Any deal with the mullahs is simple: "Well of course a deal is possible! Duh. All Iran has to do is pretend to end their drive for nuclear weapons and all we have to do is pretend to believe Iran."

Apparently, a CIA drone struck a remote dock used by drug cartels. 

India and China: frenemy mine. Applies to a lot of countries who aren't currently shooting at each other. Including America and China and including Russia and Europeans.

Start yesterday: "New ship building programs remain behind schedule and over budget. That’s because American shipyards lack the capacity and skilled workforce to build the ships needed." 

Organizations above the brigade. Russian and Ukrainian corps are more like American divisions. 

Fascinating: "Iran has labeled Canada's navy a 'terrorist organization,' escalating tensions between the two countries and raising fresh concerns over diplomatic fallout." There is context, of course.

Nukes and undermining societal and state cohesion. 

Huh: "Iran ground to a near standstill Wednesday as businesses, universities and government offices closed under a government-ordered shutdown amid protests caused by a growing political and economic crisis." 

They should act like their very lives depend on it: "Taiwan President Lai Ching-te on Thursday stressed that investing in national defence is investing in peace amid rising tensions with China, urging the opposition-led legislature to approve a proposed special military budget." 

China hits reality: "Japan is barreling forward with efforts to significantly boost its military capabilities to stand up to China’s growing threats by doubling annual arms spending." Seriously, bravo, Xi Jinping.

China really is working hard to ensure enemies 360 degrees: "China’s president, Xi Jinping, has vowed to reunify China and Taiwan in his annual New Year’s Eve speech in Beijing." Again, bravo. 

ISW's report on China's exercise to simulate blockading Taiwan. 

The divide in Space Force is bureaucratic between "operators and acquisition specialists". I was hoping it was between Space Navy people and those who want to focus on the Earth-Moon system. 

I assume Ukraine will move a lot of their ground forces into reserve formations: "When the war with Russia eventually ends, Ukraine will be left with a military larger and with more recent experience than any of its European backers’." Ukraine can't afford an active military that large. But there's a solution.

America must take care not to forget the lessons of counter-insurgency. The article notes that democracy is not the relevant metric in a COIN war. I suggest Army brigade headquarters with different orientations that can be swapped to command a brigade.

Russia seeks to snuff out even a whiff of dissent on the war special military operation. Russia's war requires a police state to wage war; and a police state requires a war--or at least a looming war--to justify a police state.

Strategypage's review of wars and potential wars in 2025. First up? The problem of Islamic Arab terrorism fed by "an abundance of corruption and a lack of economic, educational, and political progress and performance." Some of the language is old--e.g., Sunnis are down in Iraq and Alawites are down in Syria.

Huh: "President Trump warned Friday in a social media post that if Iran  'violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.'" Will the Iranian people cut the mullah Gordian Knot?

Personnel is policy: "China’s population and GDP collapse in the next 30-40 years is certain. China is only temporarily a great power. South Korea, Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey face similar demographic crashes." 

But we lost the Iraq War! "In 2025 American and Iraqi forces continued to find and capture or kill groups of Islamic terrorists." We won but it is oddly overlooked. But no victory is permanent.

I don't think the M10 Booker is Exhibit A for claiming the Army can't build weapons. The very premise was flawed. 

India can stiff-arm America over trade issues for only so long: "China is quietly building a counterarchitecture aimed not at the Quad as a whole, but at its most exposed member: India." But for China, Pakistan is a weak club. And India has escalation options at sea.

Assuming the current figure isn't inflated: "China’s current population of 1.4 billion will face marked decline, and could fall by more than half by 2100." I've been all over the demographic bust in China. 

And before this, Trump didn't stop the flood of weapons Biden front-loaded for Ukraine: "Since June, the CIA, with Donald Trump’s blessing, has been covertly providing specific intelligence to bolster Ukraine’s aerial offensive against oil refineries inside Russia, according to the officials." Not. Abandoning. Ukraine. 

Forgive this detour, but socialism is evil no matter what modifier you slap on the front like some magical incantation; and I enlisted to fight that scourge, if necessary. Via Instapundit, this:

 

Bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them: "A senior Iranian official on Friday condemned President Trump’s threat that the U.S. would come to the aid of protesters in the country facing violence, warning that the Islamic Republic could retaliate against American bases and troops in the region." 

China's very long range anti-ship ballistic missiles pose a threat. But don't panic. Work the problem and attack the links in the kill chain. And if China's missile works, we could kill PLAN ships leaving their ports. 

Regime decapitation: "The United States hit Venezuela with a “large-scale strike” early Saturday and said its president had been captured and flown out of the country [.]" I heard Delta Force was the tip of the spear on the ground. A number of ground targets were hit, too.

License to kill? "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reacted for the first time to the unrest that has gripped the country over the past seven days and called for strict measures against 'rioters.'" 

China has expanded their three artificial islands in the South China Sea--Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef and Subi Reef--and added military capabilities to them. 

Please save your outrage over the legality of the American operation to arrest Maduro and his wife using the military. Recall that the Obama administration wasn't a war under the War Powers Act because Libya couldn't shoot back. 

Maduro (and his wife?) will stand trial in the United States. 

Sure: "The United States cannot expect a more capable and independent Europe to simply follow its orders." From the "Well, Duh" files. Which is why I want America actively involved in NATO. But honestly, "Europe" (the EU) wants the political power more than military capability that justifies power.

Palestinian Firsters. I know I didn't vote for them as Queen of the Victim Prom. 

Army Delta Force has been focused on operations in Syria. How long have they been absent to carry out the Venezuela mission? Will they return to a Syria focus? Heck, is it large enough to be split? Or is Venezuela going to be the mission to support a new government there?

The Saudis want the UAE and southern Yemen factions to settle the ef down and discuss a settlement. Can't they just all get along and defeat Iran's proxy, the Houthi?

Via Instapundit, this: "Fox News pundit says the unconfirmed U.S. invasion of Venezuela is for national security against Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Russia and China." Toss in Cuba. And drug cartels, of course. This is why I remain uncertain about the main objective. But broader effects follow.

Uniformed and non-uniformed civilians who work for the military. The more things change ...

Can't stop the signal? "The introduction of [the government messaging app,] Max is part of Putin’s plan to create a sovereign, used in Russia only, internet." 

The silence of the lambs: "Exceptional levels of violence swept through Europe on New Year’s Eve, stretching the resources of law enforcement and emergency services in many major cities." I watched a European news piece about Netherlands violence. The local reporter worked very hard not to say "Islam."

Capturing Maduro did not end the Venezuela problem. What happens next? Just going to say that no enemy was waiting for America to capture a drug-running illegitimate ruler to justify their own aggression. FFS. The magical thinking about the power of American action or inaction is astounding. 

War on terror: "Britain and France on Saturday conducted an airstrike on an underground facility in the mountains north of Palmyra, Syria, which ISIS terrorists "likely" used to store weapons and explosives, the British Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement." 

Make it so: "The conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party in Germany is calling for 'comprehensive' surveillance of the entire Baltic Sea in response to what it describes as growing threats[.]" With better surveillance, it's harder to pretend Russia isn't responsible for sabotage.

Will pounding the Iranian mullahs if they slaughter protesters doom the mullah regime? Not alone. Strong people and shaky security forces are needed. And I don't think America will--or should--land troops. But even if it fails, America shows that unlike the past, it's on the side of Iranian people risking their lives.

ISW shows locations of confirmed American air strikes during the special forces mission to capture Maduro. 

Corruption related? "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced further personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military." Or just competence-based? 

Likely and possible locations of Iranian protests. 

The usual Communist suspects are already out with their signs and chants to defend Maduro.

Will the U.S. subcontract reconstruction to oil companies and use mercenaries to protect key facilities and train new government security forces? We should brush up on the old State Department plan to help Iraq after withdrawing all American troops from Iraq in 2011. It included a 5,000-man mercenary army.

I started using my Substack illustration here for the actual full post. Not sure why that didn't occur to me right off the bat given that I illustrate every other post. 

Good Enough For Drone Work

The current rage is figuring out how to cheaply shoot down cheap suicide drones. Go old school on that problem. 

Ukrainians updated old Soviet ZSU-23-4 anti-aircraft vehicles when they faced the question of dealing with small drones:

The answer became the ZSU-23-4M-A1 upgrade, and it is a case study in wartime engineering. The most important change sits right on top of the turret: the Rokach-AS radar. The original Shilka radar could track jets, but it was blind to the small, low-radar cross section (RCS) drones that define modern warfare.

Last year I wondered about an old American counter-part to that weapon--the M163:

Hmmm: "Israel is examining the M61 Vulcan cannon to counter drones, according to the Israel Defense Forces, with local media reporting the weapon would go atop armored personnel carriers deployed along the northern border." Do we have any of those Cold War vehicles in desert storage somewhere?

America no doubt has a bunch in storage. And a number of allies still have them. 

If cheap means of shooting down cheap drones are needed, make ground-based air defense a priority again.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Army photo of the M163 from Wikipedia. 

Robot Red Legs

Will robots scurry about the battlefield providing fire support for the Army? 

The Army wants a Common Autonomous Multi-Domain Launcher: 

For the CAML effort, the Army is interested in autonomous vehicles that could move around the battlefield and shoot missiles at adversaries. The service is aiming to boost its firepower and capacity while minimizing risk to soldiers.

Officials envision the system as an air-transportable platform that can launch offensive and defensive fires — augmenting or potentially replacing some of the service’s existing weapons launchers.

Is this capability what CAML seeks? 

Sounds like a mobile version of my decades-old transportable fire support suggestion during the FCS panty-flinging era that Military Review published (starting on p. 28).

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Understand an Enemy to Defeat an Enemy

Understanding an enemy doesn't make them a friend. It should be for the purpose of defeating the enemy. Too often it is for the purpose of projecting our hopes on an enemy.

"Understanding" Russia must not be for the purpose of conceding their objectives: 

There is no reset with Russia to be had unless the United States is willing to depart from Europe altogether and return to the status of a regional hemispheric power, conceding the global ocean to Russia and China. Until the Trump administration accepts this reality, the process will drag on, yielding more fissures within the NATO alliance and greater instability in Europe.

Like I said:

People keep saying we should "understand" Russia's need for a buffer space on their western borders with Europe. Nobody ever seems to "understand" America's need to keep Russia as far east as possible in Europe.

That author's basis for a "reset" on Russia's terms would abandon America's need for a European shield to prevent the Atlantic from being a path to attack America.

Although I suspect Trump is in practice playing "good cop" to Europe's "bad cop" opposition to Russia (and keep in mind America still helps Ukraine with weapons purchased by others and by sharing intelligence) to get Russia to end its hostility to the West, many of his supporters look at Russia with rose-colored glasses. 

This "reality"-based retreat will work no better than Obama's "reset" or Bush 43's belief he saw Putin's soul as a basis for common ground. At some point Putin's refusal to cooperate will generate open hostility from Trump. Will Putin base his foreign policy on reality first?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Looking For Mister Good Role

Well, killing small drones might be a useful capability for the useful lifespan of attack helicopters. But I can't see the attack helicopters lasting by helping them survive ground-based air defense given alternatives.

Seems like an expensive platform for the mission: 

The U.S. Army’s AH-64 Apache attack helicopter is continuing to develop its ability to detect and destroy enemy aerial drones. ... 

During Operation Flyswatter, the AH-64Es were tasked with detecting and tracking uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), before defeating them with a combination of laser-guided missiles, laser-guided rockets, and the Apache’s 30mm cannon.

Ukraine is using suicide interceptor drones to shoot down Russia's jet suicide drones. This isn't quite my Army prophecy of armed drone fighters. But perhaps it is cheaper to treat the interceptors as rounds of ammunition rather than small aircraft?  

Still, the expensive attack helicopters and their crews exist. What else can they do? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Artificial Intelligence is Not a Silver Bullet

China sees artificial intelligence (AI) as one more thing to fool.

AI does not necessarily speed up and improve battle. China will seek its weaknesses:

Under the banner of “counter-AI warfare”, the People’s Liberation Army is teaching troops to fight the model as much as the soldier. Forces are learning to alter how vehicles appear to cameras, radar, and heat sensors so the AI misidentifies them, to feed junk or poisoned data into an opponent’s pipeline, and to swamp battlefield computers with noise. Leaders are drilling their own teams to spot when their own machines are wrong. The goal is simple: make an enemy’s military AI chase phantoms and miss the real threat. 

The PLA conceives its counter-AI playbook as a triad that targets data, algorithms, and computing power. In May, PLA Daily described the concept in its Intelligentized Warfare Panorama series. It argued that the most reliable way to “break intelligence” is to hit all three at once. 

China is preaching to the TDR choir:

If large language model AI is just "probabilistically linking words and sentences together without considering meaning" then at best this is giving conventional wisdom the AI stamp of approval. 

When I contemplated inserting AI into command and control when it is corrupted by enemies, I wrote:

The speed of FUBAR could be simply awesome.

But even a working AI as it is now constituted can produce poor plans incredibly faster than even idiot humans. 

AI is not a silver bullet. We need a separate AI "commissar" that watches what the Battle AI is doing to provide a reality check on our AI plan generation and battlefield analysis.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Makes a New Year's Resolution Bluff

Russia leans into its bluff that all is well in the three-week special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine prepares to enter the new year with the 4-year anniversary of the three-week special military operation looming. As the year ends, Russians are admitting that Ukraine has been successfully counter-attacking at Kupyansk and that Russia doesn't have the manpower to sustain broad offensives. Which again makes me doubt Russian claims of how many troops are really attacking Ukraine.

I'm certainly not the only one to repeatedly say that Russia has many problems their boastful confidence obscures. Yet many Americans, used to publicly claimed problems even when none exist, take the Russian claims of inevitable victory at face value.

The conclusion drawn by those Americans is that supporting Ukraine despite their fierce and effective resistance just gets more Ukrainians killed in a pointless losing war. Which is bizarre given the complaint from only a day ago (figuratively, in Afghanistan) that we are fools to support people who can't fight effectively. I'm getting strategic whiplash.

But I digress. 

That level of lying is standard operating procedure for the Russians:

[Their blatant lies fuel] my utter frustration with the Russians for invading Ukraine and then standing there saying, "What? No, no. You are mistaken. We are not invading anyone. Why would you say that? Don't you like us? Are you plotting against us? In fact, you are invading. Why are you invading!?"

Russia's campaign of lying is completely separate from their method of aggression and would be done whether it is subversion, a subliminal invasion via little green men, or massed armor backed by air power. 

I wrote that in September 2016. 

So it is no shock that Putin in his end of 2025 address to his subjects claims Russia has no reason to compromise in the war:

Putin stated that Russia is ready and willing to end the war based on the principles he outlined during his June 2024 speech to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Putin used that speech to lay out his conditions to agree to a ceasefire and only then start negotiations: Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Ukraine’s abandonment of its NATO membership aspirations. Putin stated in this 2024 speech that Russia’s “fundamental” position calls for Ukraine’s neutral status, demilitarization (the Russian demand for limits on the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and denazification (the Russian demand for the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government). Putin had also demanded that the international community enshrine its recognition of Russia’s annexation of the four oblasts and Crimea in international agreements and that the West lift all sanctions against Russia. Many of Putin’s June 2024 demands, which Putin reiterated on December 19, directly contradict the US-proposed 28-point peace plan and its subsequent iterations.

The inability to see the problems of the enemy--and yes, bizarrely enough, America is Russia's main enemy by their own acts and rhetoric--is a constant in history:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows

How much the other side is hurt.

And American tendencies to amplify our own problems--while in one way a prod to fix actual problems--accentuates the inability to appreciate how much enemies can lie in order to fool us into giving up.

Russia is hurt. And while we may not appreciate it, it is also true that--and God help the Russian people--Putin may not know it. This is a problem:

The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures. FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.

How do we negotiate with that? How do we send nuanced diplomatic signals into that fog of delusion? 

Not to get my hopes up, but does Ukraine's ability to counter-attack locally seem more productive lately? Just asking for a friend.

Anyway, just who in the Kremlin will tell Putin he is effing up royally? Are a few economic confidants enough?

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia said Ukraine launched a large, long-range drone strike on one of Putin's residences. I'd guess this is a Russian lie because the strike failed due to claimed Russian air defense excellence. [Wednesday: I forgot to add this about Russia's firehose of lies.]

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy: Europe

In case you missed it on Substack: Put Tail Fins on the Old Model

In case you missed it on Substack: Creating Worries in the Sea of Japan

In case you missed it on Substack: Recon in a Persistent Recon Environment

Turmoil in Chad. I think the last time I paid attention to Chad was the Toyota War. 

South Korea was once a consumer of Western security. Now it produces security for the West: "South Korea is the tenth largest weapons exporter worldwide." Admit it, we won the Korean War. 

Good: "Jordan confirmed Saturday that its air force took part in strikes launched by the United States on Islamic State group targets in Syria in retaliation for the killing of three U.S. citizens earlier this month." But don't expect too much. Firepower from planes, hellicopters, and artillery won't destroy ISIL. 

Temporary duty at Manta: "The U.S. military is sending a contingent of Air Force personnel to Ecuador in support of 'anti-drug trafficking' operations."

The LCS concept gets small and loses (if desired) its crew.

Russia rejected America's proposal. Europe affected prospects not a whit: "Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide says that changes made by European countries and Ukraine to the United States’s proposals for an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine do not improve the prospects for peace." 

Reach out and touch somebody: "Sweden will soon have the capability to conduct deep strikes far behind enemy lines, as the Gripen will be integrated with the German-made Taurus cruise missile earlier than planned[.]" Ice, ice, baby. 

Lukashenko: "Russia had deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to the country[.]" I doubt Russia risked putting actual nuclear warheads there.

Speed bumps: "European Union lawmakers want to remove internal barriers to the cross-border movement of troops and military equipment, allowing the forces of partners and allies such as the U.S. to move across the Continent faster in a crisis." If only the EU wanted to help rather than undermine NATO. 

France wants a big, shiny, nuclear-powered, floating symbol of French power.

Ukraine produces cheap interceptor drones to counter suicide drones. Until these fighters are reusable, the prophecy is not quite fulfilled. 

Can the Dark Ages return to the West? In part, this could spark a debate about whether the Dark Ages were really dark. But the point is that civilizations can decline. I think America is better able to resist and cope with that outcome. And I retain hope that a space frontier can replace what Columbus sparked.

America gets a "new" warship: "The U.S. Navy has brought its first Flight III Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer, the USS Jack H. Lucas, into service marking the beginning of the latest phase in by far the world’s oldest destroyer program." Please don't be the last warship America can design and build.

Exactly: "Some pundits have suggested that the fighting in Ukraine has proved that cannon artillery has little value on the modern battlefield. Those pundits are wrong." Cheap suicide drones emerged in a drone counter-measures vacuum and a shell shortage. The war has lasted long enough to reduce both factors.

Either Trump amazingly and rapidly solved all the economic and societal factors that previously were claimed by his opponents to be the cause of dismal military recruiting--or the solution was as simple as celebrating rather than demonizing the traditional base of recruits in America. Choose one explanation.

The Islamic State is back. That's what happens when you walk away from a fight against jihadis on a Mission from God. We left Afghanistan over four years ago. Imagine what the jihadis there are up to. 

The Arab Spring has moved the center of power in the Arab world to Persian Gulf monarchies. True. But it has only been fifteen years. The Arab Spring ended the traditional alternatives of nationalist autocracy or mullah-based dictatorship. It will take time to build the hoped-for alternative of rule-of-law democracy.

Denmark and their colony Greenland warned America about taking over Greenland. Seriously? America's interest stated with hyperbole in keeping China out does not imply aggression against Greenland. Perhaps I should grant Denmark the same benefit of the doubt and assume they were really talking about China.

Is Iraq finally going to de-fang the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Force militias that rose up in the aftermath of ISIL's overrunning of Iraqi territory in 2014? 

Russia's next space station will be built with the remnants of the International Space Station after the partners de-orbit their portions of the ISS. Good luck with that. Although I admit I wondered why we couldn't somehow use all that mass placed in orbit at a high cost. 

Blowback from Chinese subliminal warfare: "This past year saw the U.K. and France carrier strike groups conduct Western Pacific deployments as other allied nations monitored milestones and movements of Chinese and North Korean forces." 

Will capabilities follow? "A new White House new executive order, 'Ensuring American Space Superiority,' emphasizes space security as a high priority for President Donald Trump and underlines the Space Force’s role in not only defending U.S. assets, but also in the attack mission." 

I remain confused about how Israel closing Army Radio--the radio station of the army of the government of Israel--is "a move that shutters one of Israel’s oldest media institutions at a time of mounting concerns over press freedom." I live in Bizarro World now.

Zelensky certainly doesn't act as if American diplomacy is betraying Ukraine: "'Overall, it looks quite solid at this stage,' the Ukrainian leader said of recent talks with U.S. officials[.]" Breathe, people.

Iran was unavailable for comment: "China and Russia have expressed support for Venezuela as it confronts a US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers[ and other pressure.]" 

Russia tries to conquer Georgia from within, since it is too busy getting hammered in Ukraine to invade (again). America prevented the first invasion from succeeding. 

Denmark and Europeans in general are getting their panties in a twist over Trump's repeated desire to own Greenland--a local-rule colony of Denmark. That's not the same as saying America will "seize" Greenland from Denmark. Just say "no" to the offer. And protect it from threats far more real than America.

The fruits of corruption: "As of a month ago, seven of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa had their elected governments replaced by military rulers this year." 

An Air Force F-15 was put back in service in under 12 hours with 3D-printed parts.

Is Canada building the wrong kind of army? I'm happy they are building an army. And while I have concerns, I quibble with the idea that we have a transparent battlefield. Every advance in gathering and moving information seems revolutionary--until it is a new normal and part of adapted operations.

Why America looks south: "The geopolitical logic is that greater economic growth in Latin America will reduce vulnerabilities in the Eastern Hemisphere and, in time, could moderate immigration to the United States. This would require greater political stability in certain Latin American countries." 

Is America's military deployment--too much for blockading Venezuela but too little to occupy it--really directed at Cuba? The force level made me wonder. So I looked for weaker targets. Solving Cuba would be great. But I worry more about a Chinese than Russian presence. My thoughts on regional strategy.

Will the European Union exist in four years? Oh? Be still my heart. This take on U.S.-European relations is ridiculous. The EU already hates America and America is belatedly returning the favor. And without the EU, Europeans may again thrive with freedom and security.

Aim high--and faster: "New NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said he wants the agency to move faster on key programs such as Artemis but acknowledged he needs time to get up to speed on NASA’s activities." Tip to Instapundit.

Will any Venezuelan tanker be safe under these conditions? Interesting. I suppose the Chinese could flag them ...  Tip to Instapundit. 

Huh: "Pakistan’s military is tightening its grip on the country with sweeping legal changes that critics say are centralizing power in the hands of army chief Gen. Asim Munir." I'm not sure how much more the parasite can suck out of the host. 

The U.S. has pumped up the deployment of special forces aircraft to Puerto Rico.

The Air Force is working on big, expensive drone "wingmen". Ten thousand cheap, small drones can't do what a single really capable drone can do. Vice versa applies, of course. 

Perhaps America doesn't plan to invade Greenland, eh? "The United States cleared a potential sale of over $900 million in medium-range missiles to Denmark, an announcement that comes as President Donald Trump renews a push to take control of the country’s autonomous territory of Greenland." 

America has rounded up regional help to pressure Maduro: "the US secured military deals with Paraguay, Ecuador, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago in the past week alone." 

Affordable mass for the Air Force with air-to-air missile-armed UAVs. 

China leads in new patents; America leads in the value of new patents. Add in the value of other Western countries and the West has triple the value of China.

Do or die time: "Huntington Ingalls Industries/HII ...is implementing new manufacturing methods to build everything except carriers and submarines, faster and cheaper [with] distributed shipbuilding. Portions of a warship hull and superstructure are built by different firms all over the country." 

If the Marines want to be amphibious again rather than sub-par Navy anti-ship batteries, all is not lost. 

Amazon front: On the Internet nobody software can tell you're a dog North Korean agent. Tip to Instapundit.

INDOPACOM is going to try out amphibious aircraft to see if that long-lost capability is still useful. Glad this concept is getting a test. Still not happy with a gelded Marine Corps. But an improvement is an improvement.

The rise of two potential strategic nuclear weapon foes is a challenge for America. 

China's leadership wants "new quality combat forces" but China's reality is a speed bump: "Technological progress is undermined by ongoing issues within the People’s Liberation Army, such as corruption, political unreliability, and governance issues."

We may not be very interested in jihadi murderers. But jihadi murderers are very interested in us. Somalia is the gift that keeps on giving. When Bush 41 sent Marines into Somalia to cope with starvation, I knew gratitude would give way to the urge to murder us. First in Mogadishu and now at home.

A warning to Europe not to follow Lebanon's path. Parts of Europe are nearing a state-within-a-state status like Hezbollah. That's no fun but being a minority in your own country is worse.

Until Hezbollah is broken up in Lebanon, I have zero confidence that the terrorists won't re-infiltrate southern Lebanon: "Israel is reportedly considering a plan that outlines 'stringent conditions' for southern Lebanon in return for Israel 'forgoing military action,' according to Lebanese media."

This description of U.S.-led peace proposals to end the Winter War of 2022 doesn't portray America abandoning Ukraine, notwithstanding the near hysteria I've heard all year. Interests naturally develop between allies the longer a war goes on. I wonder more about Russia and China.

Rearming: "Israel is selling its Arrow 3 anti-missile missiles to Germany in a $4.6 billion deal. Germany will also receive the Green Pine radar. Germany eventually expects to have several Arrow batteries deployed along their eastern border to intercept Russian long range missiles." 

America's version of Iran's cheap Shaded suicide UAV doesn't seem very cheap. A problem of being a wealthy country with higher labor costs?  Perhaps volume will bring the cost down. 

Israel continues to destroy tunnels and kill jihadi terrorists in Gaza where its troops stand. 

In Russia, I'm sure "expecting" the war to end in 2026 is safer than saying they "want" the war to end: "The survey of 1,600 Russians aged 18 and above found that 55% believe what Moscow calls its 'special military operation' is nearing its end." Do they expect to win or lose?

Well that Saudi statement doesn't sound futile at all: "The kingdom remains hopeful that the public interest will prevail through ending the escalation by the Southern Transitional Council and the withdrawal of its forces from the two governorates in an urgent and orderly manner." Who will make the STC retreat?

I assume the defense pact has nuclear provisions. Decades ago I thought the deal was that the Saudis funded Pakistan's nuclear program and Pakistan would under certain conditions provide warheads for Saudi missiles purchased from China. 

Huh: "President Trump announced Thursday that the US military hit ISIS terrorists in Nigeria targeting Christians with 'numerous' deadly airstrikes." Nigeria's government cooperated. Will it exploit the strikes? This is morally right. And supports the war on Islamist terror. But be careful about sliding back into R2P.

Iran's friction with Kurds inside the mullahs' rump empire sparked some fire. 

The Ukraine lobby appeals to our heart and not our head? It is morally right. Sure, America has no interest to justify actively fighting Russia now. Interests diverge. We have an interest in keeping Russia as far east as possible. But as they move west our interest in fighting rises. When did the "right" get this way?

Sure, Trump could make military mistakes in 2026, including by leaning forward too much. But I do find this caution humorous coming alongside the criticism that the National Security Strategy doesn't even name potential enemies.

Iran's "King of Iraq" is the most dangerous man in Iraq. I guess the prior one, Moqtada al-Sadr, is downgraded.

The state of transformation in the Air Force (halted), the Marines (controversial), and Army (bizarrely non-controversial). Space Force is too new for this; and the Coast Guard is just happy to have budget attention.

Twenty-four years ago on December 26, 1991, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was dissolved. Rot in Hell, socialist bastards. 

The Navy picked "a beach landing ship that the Marine Corps have long said is a vital component to its plan for a 21st Century island hopping campaign." Island hopping isolated and smashed enemy strongholds. What the Marines plan now is better called island scurrying. Bold move, Cotton ...

Turkey lacks the power to carry out Erdogan's imperial ambitions. The author notes that Turkey could destroy Assad's regime but it has not stabilized Syria after. How can Turkey aim at more distant horizons?

Is America losing its Thailand ally to China's influence? How will India react?

People forget these are victims of settler-colonialism: "On this Christmas Day, let us spare a thought for the plight of Middle Eastern Christians, arguably the most endangered religious minority in today’s world." The Middle East was once the heart of Christianity until Islam's conquest and ethnic cleansing. 

I don't believe North Korea's large nuclear submarine will last long in a shooting war. It's not even that large for a SSBN.

Recalling the 1894 Sino-Japanese War. Does modern China think it can repeat Japan's signal victory? Or does it worry it is still the empire that lost to a modern Westernized state? If China believes both, Russia should beware. 

Fingers crossed: "Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate ceasefire following weeks of border clashes[.]" 

Can Ukraine dominate the river? "Ukraine is expanding its uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attacks to hit Russian targets on the Dnipro River and its tributaries." I'll ask again: "I wonder if Ukraine's more capable USVs will be important for crossing the Dnipro River.  

Russia: "Russian efforts to reform and upgrade their drone operations have paid off. This year Russia is sending nearly ten times the number of drones against Ukrainian targets than they did last year." Ground-based air defenses are insufficient for the new threat.

Russia exploits AI for their extensive online propaganda campaign. 

Ukraine uses small drones in combined arms operations: "They are a key force multiplier for Ukraine, yet they assist Ukrainian forces in tandem with conventional infantry and armour tactics, evolved for the deadly Ukrainian battlefield." Yes. And expanded combined arms lessons for America will be different. 

I missed this story about Venezuela's Margarita Island: "Hezbollah’s most important base of operations in the Western Hemisphere, strengthened by Iran’s growing footprint and the Maduro regime’s protection." Landing Marines there could support a number of objectives short of invasion and occupation.