Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Dueling Insufficiencies

In case you missed it on Substack: The Enduring Need for Trigger-Pulling Soldiers

In case you missed it on Substack: If You Have to Ask the Price of Battlefield Victory, You Can't Afford It

In case you missed it on Substack: Crawl, Walk, Run, and Then Drive the PLA Into the Sea

Restructuring the military for a multi-theater war. An early publication of mine during the 1990s peace dividend warned about wrongly believing we can fight in more than one theater, using Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980 as a cautionary tale.

CRS reports to Congress on Army small drone projects and DOD counter-drone projects. 

The Army's move to cut back on helicopter reliance. 

Strengthening Army division-level force multipliers: "As the Army is reintroducing electronic warfare capability to formations, it’s looking to give them more cyber weapons as well." 

Vietnam may exceed Chinese island-building in the South China Sea. Good. As long as Vietnam doesn't try to use fake islands to expand territorial claims. 

Sh*t got real in the South China Sea. 

The Air Force wants "rapidly deployable air base defense systems to thwart drones over fixed installations and defend Airmen at austere airfields from enemy missiles." Good. But are the basics taken care of?

The Michigan Air National Guard needs work on its base at Selfridge to be ready for F-15EX aircraft to replace retiring A-10s. 

Britain wants to modify surplus Warrior infantry fighting vehicles to be remotely operated or autonomous mine-clearing vehicles. You can't have your maneuver units stacked up behind a slowly created breach.

The Marines are buying 31 more of their new Amphibious Combat Vehicles armed with 30mm auto-cannons. 

China's urge to erase its "century of humiliation."

Reconstitution under fire and with a deadline: "The 1973 Yom Kippur War, which saw the IDF lose more than eight hundred main battle tanks and one hundred attack aircraft in three weeks of fighting, validated the timeless imperative for modern militaries to maintain systematic reconstitution as a vital capability." 

The author makes good points. But NATO expansion didn't make Russia aggressive. Russia revived Russian aggression. Because Russia's paranoia has no natural territorial limits short of the Atlantic. And probably not even then. The Mongols advancing from Asia through Russia deeply damaged Russians.

Drawing a line in the South China Sea? "Following Marcos’ visit to the United States, the Philippine-U.S. defense cooperation is unfolding with remarkable momentum." 

"Putin's long game"! LOL Putin failed to quickly conquer Ukraine and is now hanging on fearful of peace whether he wins on the battlefield or not because of the heavy price in Russian lives, reputation, the economy, and military power. Any failure by our enemies is dressed up in the best light. 

Last week I mentioned a sizable American military deployment near Venezuela. If you thought Trinidad and Tobago, collect your prize. Of course, Guyana is the focus of Venezuelan desire and American worry.

I don't agree with everything, but Friedman is right that "the strategy pursued under presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump – that is, supplying intelligence and weapons but not troops to Ukraine – was the rational policy." Before the war I cited logistics but said maybe western Ukraine is worth risking war. 

The Panamanian ambassador to the U.S. defends its canal security relationship with America and Panama's cooperation on sanctions on Russia and Iran.

The Chinese Communist Party doesn't care: "China’s slowdown puts the world economy at risk[.]" But it cares if the basis of its claim for a monopoly of political party is undermined. What will stoking nationalism to replace that require? And are official statistics accurate? 

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would require opposition frigates to escort ships through the blockade. How many frigates could be replaced with modularized auxiliary cruisers and dis-aggregated "Navy in a box" systems spread out on a number of cargo ships in a convoy? 

Karma strikes down Russia's 2025 harvest. Tip to Instapundit. But I read that World War I Russian food shortages were driven by bad government policies that discouraged farmers from selling at a loss. And Russian grain production shot up after communism. So lighten up on global warming propaganda.

Is America's ability to borrow its way through spending desires about to collapse? All my adult life that's been the prediction. The prediction has been correct. Only the timing has been wrong. How's your pucker factor going?

Will the French government collapse over an effort to control spending?  

Good point: "Armies should train for the battlefields they fight on. But the U.S. Army’s training sites don’t replicate the terrain that the Army is most likely to fight on, such as the Baltic states, Korea and Taiwan, warns a U.S. Army officer." I've addressed the Baltics, Korea, and Taiwan here and here.

While this is broadly within the National Guard's lanes (my signal unit had riot control training), I'd like deployments to be brief surges until locals take over: "President Donald Trump on Monday ordered the National Guard in each state to create a quick-response force to quell protests and deter crime[.]"

The usual suspect: "A Russian-crewed cargo ship, HAV DOLPHIN, has attracted some attention after its movements coincided with drone incursions over German military installations[.]" 

Norway will help Germany buy American Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. 

Britain extended its training program for Ukrainian troops to at least the end of 2026. 

Reach out and touch someone? "the Trump administration last week approved the sale of 3,350 [150-280 miles-range] ERAM missiles to Ukraine." 

I suspect that Russia is doing this mostly to try to stop drone attacks. But the collateral damage is welcome. And they'd do it even if not at war with Ukraine.

I think this is needless but trendy panic, but if it pushes Britain to rearm, that's good. Good luck trusting "Europe".

This is how abusive ruling elites get introduced to gallows set up in a courtyard. Will the British people really let this slide? Tip to Instapundit. 

Xi will welcome Modi and Putin to China's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting. China claims Russian land and China claims Indian land. A sound basis for an alliance, eh? 

Both lie about what Israel is doing in Gaza to destroy Israel: "These are dangerous days for Israel. It faces a two-pronged attack. From one flank come the radical Islamists, from the other Western intellectuals." I knew this post would be useful. 

Colombia is drawing closer to Venezuela. For nearly forty years we helped Colombia defeat communist narco-insurgents. Then Colombia threw away the victory. Our government was addled enough to support that stupidity.

Venezuela's military is crappy in so many ways. Very informative.

Trump failed to stop the Houthi anti-shipping attacks, so punish its enablers. But escalating against Iran and/or China as the authors suggest to defeat the Houthi is Sicilian Expedition-level folly. Will Egypt act with Saudi air support and money? 

True: "A fundamental problem facing the US military is that the services have fielded capable, long-range missile systems, but only possesses limited deep-reach Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Targeting (ISRT) capabilities, limiting the effective employment of long-range missile systems."

The developing brown skies campaign gets more complicated: "Ukrainian forces need to embrace systemic changes in conducting aerial reconnaissance in the wake of increased [Russian] deployment of interceptor systems. The [Ukrainian] servicemember warned that Russian interceptors can degrade the quality and quantity of Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance."

Brits to Americans: We don't need a written constitution like you colonials. Wait. What? Tip to Instapundit.

Iraq intends to deport a lot of foreign nationals affiliated with or connected to ISIL.

China has ramped up its military presence in the South China Sea that it illegally claims after one of its warships collided with one of its coast guard ships while chasing a Philippine Coast Guard ship recently.

Finland and Poland are thinking of allowing bogs to return, following the example of Ukraine which blew a dam north of Kiev to restore a drained bog, blocking a Russian advance on Kiev early in the invasion. The Baltic states could do that, too. Thank goodness climate activists won't complain.

It is difficult to get the Taiwanese people to worry about a Chinese invasion anytime soon. Are they correct? Or will the shock of invasion numb them into passivity and defeat? 

That won't work: "The Lebanese government will reportedly attempt to persuade rather than coerce Hezbollah to disarm." I've long thought Israel hitting government targets while going after Hezbollah was counter-productive. But if the government won't disarm a weakened Hezbollah, both are targets.

More: "Two sources briefed on the plan told the Reuters news agency that the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie and the nuclear-powered fast attack submarine USS Newport News will arrive in Caribbean waters by early next week." The cruiser provides command and control capabilities, too, I believe.

A full time reservist should be removed from active duty service if he thinks posting on political issues is his priority. As a part-time reservist he will be free to opine when not on duty. 

Interesting: "CRS questions whether converting IBCTs into Mobile Brigade Combat Teams would affect the Army’s 14 active component IBCTs and 20 National Guard IBCTs 'with potential operational impacts in terms of organization and capabilities for Army infantry formations.'" 

Forward defense: "Australian forces will be able to access Philippine military bases via an upcoming defense cooperation agreement[.]"

American diplomat: "The US is expected to support the renewal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission for another year, but the international force is 'not the answer' to Lebanon’s security woes[.]" If it can't disarm Hezbollah while it is weak, it truly is UNIFAIL.

Sadly, turning the F-35 off and then on was not an option at altitude. The danger of a smart plane hopefully doesn't outweigh its advantages in combat. Hopefully an enemy couldn't hack the plane and introduce that problem during combat.

Well good luck with that: "Venezuela on Tuesday deployed warships and drones to patrol the country's coastline[.]" 

But is the association worried about military capability or association advantage? "The head of Germany's Bundeswehr Association said a government plan to boost Germany's armed forces is inadequate[.]"

An Africa Spring? "What began as a localised protest [in Angola], a taxi drivers’ strike over a steep fuel price hike has spiralled into a full-blown crisis marked by looting, destruction, and a mass exodus of Chinese nationals." Tip to Instapundit. Could a PLAN carrier and amphibious group deploy there? 

Even as Iran's mullah's remain vulnerable at home, they spread death and mayhem worldwide--as Australia discovered. Tip to Instapundit.

Maybe: "The Chinese do not do anything quickly without ample strategic foresight. They plod along, simmering with irritation, and always talk a big game. They do rehearse amphibious landings to overthrow the government of Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean an attack will come in the next year or two." Foresight?!

Europe's century of humiliation? No. Not Europe--the European Union. Geographic Europe could be fine if the EU humiliation leads to its collapse so free European states can embark on a century of renewal.

The Army is confident it can protect overseas bases from drones, but is working with the British to design counter-drone systems for the Army on the move. 

Is "key terrain" now non-terrain factors? Don't over-think it. There have always been critical resources, infrastructure, and industrial capabilities. By all means study and cope with that. But military forces operate on, over, and around actual terrain.

Germany opens a new plant to produce 155mm ammunition. 

The new CNO wants a new fleet design. But will we have a sea power debate or just another fruitless carrier debate?

China is getting bizarrely repressive. What motivates that? And how will that shape China?

Whoa: "The open-source intelligence project Oryx has visually confirmed the first recorded loss of a Russian D-74 122mm howitzer, a rare artillery system dating back to the 1950s." 

The Russians intercepted an American P-8A maritime patrol aircraft over the Black Sea. The information this plane collects is crucial for keeping the Russian navy from freely using the sea.

China is unveiling a new Dong Feng-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of reaching Guam. 

A line in the sea: "Australian, Canadian and Philippine warships and fighter jets worked together to defeat simulated air threats on Wednesday near Scarborough Shoal[.]" 

Did killing JCIDS remove paperwork requirements that clogged military modernization?  

The European Union's Orwellian "Media Freedom Act." Gosh, what was Vance thinking, eh?

Interesting news from Turkey: "The Steel Dome combines [mobile] sea- and land-based defense platforms and radar systems within a single network to detect and intercept aerial weapons systems." It must not include the S-400 that Turkey bought.

Huh: "IDF soldiers rappelled from four helicopters to a military post near Kiswa, south of Damascus" in a two-hour operation. They carried "search equipment" but no word if anything was airlifted out. They "dismantled devices used by Turkey to spy on Israel."

Islamists are invaders wherever they go. The British once would have fought invaders on the beaches, in the hills, and in the fields and streets. Now they arrest a desperate little girl who dares to resist. I am heart broken and ashamed. Tip to Instapundit. 

An Army Apache in Europe fired for the first time a Spike non-line of sight missile. Now, terrain is a form of protection for helicopters. 

Shocking: "Russian private mercenary operations in Mali have sowed resentment within the West African nation's army and military government, caused security lapses, and failed to yield any mining concessions [for Russia]." 

Venezuela has ties to Iran. I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating.

Many decades later, a benefit of saving South Korea rolls in when we really need them: "Two South Korean shipbuilding titans are throwing their weight into new efforts to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding[.]" 

Russia learns: "Russia says it carried out a drone boat attack on a Ukrainian Navy reconnaissance ship in the mouth of the Danube River[.]" 

Canada wants submarines. 

Ukraine used suicide drones to detonate mines and ammunition that the Russians planted in case they needed to destroy two bridges.

China patrols the waters around Scarborough Shoal to enforce physical control of territory they illegally claim to own. 

Seventy years of U-2 service, and one plane set a distance and duration record. 

The Air Force says it can solve the "'“Valley of Death' problem—the gulf between the invention of an innovative new technology and its deployment at scale[.]"

Unless local forces are prepared to overthrow the dictator Maduro, the small sea-based force America has ordered near Venezuela aren't going to liberate the country. Even if a Marine and Army division follow up initial attacks. 

Will European governments halt open immigration, expel criminals and Islamists, and compel assimilation? Or will the governments fight their own angry native citizens besieged by the functional invaders? And what about enacting cheap energy and economic growth policies?

I think it is silly to say a PLA parade will reveal anything of use about China's military capability. 

The American "New Right" sounds a lot like the old Left that never saw an enemy--if it could even describe a "friend we haven't made yet" that way--it wanted to resist. 

China's plan to build a road between Afghanistan and China through their narrow border will pose security problems for China. 

Can the Navy and Coast Guard expand by subcontracting ship components that "fully leverages the capabilities of small and medium-sized shipyards across the country"?

The second Columbia-class SSBN is now under construction. 

The Army will deploy its Typhon missile system to Japan for the first time in an exercise. 

Breathe, people. 

Has the war of attrition in Ukraine "benefited China in every possible way"? In many ways, yes. But is China really happy that Russia woke up America and the West to their insufficient defense industrial base?   

Is Russia's Zapad 2025 exercise a means to finally absorb Belarus and complete the Anschluss? Lukashenko's resistance to Putin has slowed but not stopped Putin's ambitions.

If India wants to finally resolve its biggest defense problem of the 2010s, this may help: "India is preparing to launch a landmark partnership with France to co-develop and manufacture a next-generation jet engine for its fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)[.]" 

That's gonna leave a mark: "The IDF currently assesses that the entire cabinet of the Houthi cabinet — including the prime minister and 12 other ministers — were likely killed in yesterday’s strike in Yemen[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Apparently, the Navy want to complicate logistics by mounting Army air defense missiles on a ship rather than Navy air defense missiles.

The Philippines opened a "forward operating base in Mahatao on Batan," a small island between Luzon and Taiwan. Task Force X would find that useful.

I wonder what the Russians were delivering? 

Nobody will get worked up over this because Israel isn't involved: "An extensive earthen wall is being built around the besieged Sudanese city of el-Fasher and is intended to trap people inside[.]" Being non-Israeli is a license to kill from the sainted international community--as Hamas understands all too well.

New NATO member Finland will wisely dump pre-Nazi swastika emblems--an ancient symbol the Nazis adopted--part of a few remaining air force units. Don't make Putin's false propaganda too easy, eh?

The U.S. and South Korea are discussing returning a small number of American tactical nuclear gravity bombs to South Korean territory. 

Is there a chance Iran will dissolve in a civil war should the mullah regime collapse? Tip to Instapundit.

Israel continues to hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Unless Lebanon takes control of Hezbollah's strongholds and neuters the terror state-within-a-state, the Lexington Rule holds.

Interesting: "Healey stated that F-15s from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) will soon be stationed in the UK, accompanied by supporting transport aircraft, with plans for unit-to-unit exchanges alongside the RAF." Tip to Cracking Defence.

This is a weird hit from a new Brazil user, no? "https://thedignifiedrant.blogspot.com/2021/AIS+(Automated+Identification+System)" 

I knew the Air Force and Navy store older planes and ships just in case. I had forgotten the Army does that, too, with 26,000 armored and other vehicles stored in the desert. 

The U.S. government is talking to Europeans about sending American armed private military companies to build fortifications for Ukraine. 

My entries are crowding my maximums again. I must resolve (again) to be briefer. 

Are "Snapback" Sanctions Legal?

We're going to get an answer to a question I've had since the awful Iran Nuclear Deal of 2015 (a.k.a. JCPOA) was put in place. Namely, whether "snapback" sanctions are legal under the United Nations charter. I suspect the answer is they are not.

We are at the end of the month when stuff is supposed to happen:

It is unclear if the E3 [NOTE: the United Kingdom, Germany, and France]  will initiate the dispute resolution process outlined in the JCPOA or directly refer Iran's non-compliance to the UNSC. The dispute resolution process can take up to 35 days and involves a series of steps that aim to resolve non-compliance issues.[7] The E3 can choose to engage in the dispute resolution process and then refer the issue to the UNSC if it believes that Iran continues to show "significant non-performance." The E3 can, conversely, bypass the dispute resolution process and directly refer the non-compliance issue to the UNSC. The E3 would be required to include a description of "the good-faith efforts the [E3] made to exhaust the dispute resolution process" when they refer Iran’s non-compliance to the UNSC. The JCPOA gives the UNSC 30 days to pass a resolution to extend sanctions relief for Iran, but UNSC permanent members (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia) can veto such a resolution.

Of course, the mere fact that the sanctions aren't already in place despite years shows they did not in fact snap back after it was clear Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons despite its commitment not to do so. Tell me, will Russia and China insist that the E3 did not in fact exhaust the dispute resolution process? Will Russia and China deny Iran is guilty of "significant non-performance" in the JCPOA?

But more basically, what about the ability to put UN Security Council sanctions back in place without an additional Security Council vote to impose them? That is, can one Security Council essentially require a future Security Council to do its bidding by inverting the resolution process? I've long suspected that is not legal under the UN charter, as I explained in my review of the published deal:

Page 20 has the interesting part on "snapback" sanctions. First off, no already gained benefits will be lost by Iran.

This provision says that the UNSC has 30 days to vote to continue lifting sanctions or the old sanctions resolutions are reimposed, unless the UNSC says otherwise.

Further, any lawful contracts signed are not retroactively cancelled. So unless Iran is clueless, they will lock in long-term deals that will survive the reimposition of sanctions.

Also, the deal says that Iran will consider any reimposition of sanctions as grounds to abandon the deal in whole or in part.

And let me add a question I've asked before. Can the United Nations charter be amended by this deal to carve out an exception to the veto power of the 5 permanent members of the Security Council?

Here's what the Chapter V, Article 27 of the UN charter says about the veto:

1. Each member of the Security Council shall have one vote.
2. Decisions of the Security Council on procedural matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members.
3. Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting.

Because I can see the Russians or Chinese objecting to the whole notion that UNSC resolutions can be reimposed after 30 days of inaction by the Security Council. What do we do when the Russians and Chinese (probably correctly, but it has been a long time since I had an international law class) argue that this deal provision is invalid and that no sanctions resolutions can go into effect without 9 votes, including the concurrence of the five permanent members, and they will not go along with it?

I think China and Russia--and maybe France depending on their mood that day--will argue that future Security Council authority cannot be signed away in any deal no matter who approves it.

I think this nuclear deal provision was a false safeguard designed to get the agreement passed and not designed to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions. I hope I am wrong. 

Still, the E3 have begun the sacred "process".  And Iran begins their process in their so-called parliament:

The bill would require Iran to leave the NPT and the Additional Protocol, end all negotiations with the United States and the E3, and terminate cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Will Surface Drones Enable Navy Distributed Maritime Operations?

If time is short to prepare for a sea control campaign against the PLA, surface drones that can be built quickly are part of the answer. They could be key to an early war Navy sea denial strategy to keep the PLAN penned in to their coastal regions.

The Navy needs every type of drone for all the domains in order to fight the PLA for control of the western Pacific:

Deployed in large numbers, such systems would scatter sensors around the maritime realm while furnishing fleet commanders with extra firepower—and give new life to the US Navy’s governing concept of distributed maritime operations.

Carriers may excel in power projection, but they are ill-suited to DMO. Hell, I worry about the big ships surviving, too. In that light, this Task Force 66 rear admiral's view is interesting:

We think that with 20 USVs of different, heterogeneous types, we could deconstruct a mission that a DDG could do. And we think we could do it at a cost point of essentially 1/30 of what a DDG would cost. 

But how many substitutions could be made without losing what the DDG provides? 

In many ways, the surface drones--and what is the ideal size for numbers, payload, range, and seaworthiness?--could fill the role that I thought manned Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers could fill in network-centric warfare. But as part of the fleet and not a silver bullet that replaces the fleet.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: U.S. Navy photo of Ranger USV by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Tyler R. Fraser

CONUS is Not A Sanctuary For the Air Force

Ukrainian and Israeli infiltration of small drones to target an enemy should make American base commanders nervous. 

I've already noted that the Continental United States is no longer a sanctuary for our power projection infrastructure. So it should be no shock that the United States has to defend its air bases here in the United States: 

Since 2022, the U.S. Army’s Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office, or JCO, and the RAND Corp. think tank have held six wargames on how to mitigate the drone threat. ...

“The tabletop exercise emphasized the need for a framework to integrate, enable, and synchronize state, local, tribal, and territorial authorities into counter-drone operations at or near military bases,” noted an essay by the game’s designers. But this, in turn, raises a slew of jurisdictional and communication issues.

Yes, while much more can be done on the base and around its perimeter, the detection and action net needs depth with friendly police forces around the bases. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from Department of Defense of U.S. aircraft destroyed as a result of the Japanese bombing on Pearl Harbor is shown, Dec. 7, 1941.

Back to the Moon

America needs to go back to the Moon. Leaving the Moon to China to gaze down on us is no way to win on Earth.

The Artemis program to put America back on the moon to stay is in trouble, which is a problem: 

From the summer of 1969 to the end of 1972, through six Apollo Moon landing missions, the United States of America placed no less than a dozen human beings on the surface of the Moon.

The rest of the world could only watch in awe – or, in the Soviet Union’s case, envy.

With the lunar dust kicked up by those first explorers long since settled, Armstrong’s “giant leap for mankind” is at risk of reverting to merely “one small step.”

That will be the case if America retreats from its admirable legacy of lunar exploration.

China is going to the Moon as we speak. Don't even imagine China won't try to draw a nine-dashed lines to encompass the Moon the way it does in the South China Sea: 

And the way it asserts a voice in the Arctic Sea despite being nowhere near it.  

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

America Should Stay in Iraq

We paid a higher price than I would like to win in Iraq (although the price we could have paid had we left Saddam or his spawn in charge is unknowable). Let's not throw that noble sacrifice away by letting enemies--either Iran's mullahs or Sunni jihadis--win in Iraq. 

Keep 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq: 

Washington seeks a stable Iraq that is sovereign, not a satellite of Iran; capable, not a breeding ground for terrorist resurgence; and independent, not beholden to China or Russia. That doesn’t require a democratic utopia—only a stable, resilient state that can manage its own affairs.

Bush won the Iraq War by 2008. Obama and Biden boasted of the victory even as America walked away--yet Obama re-engaged after the rise of ISIL across eastern Syria and western and northwestern Iraq to reverse the defeat. Trump intensified America's role to win that Iraq War 2.0 against ISIL jihadis. Biden stayed the course--while edging toward the exits (losing two wars in one term is frowned upon). 

And now we must continue the fight as supporting players (back to the article):

Competing effectively in Iraq does not require massive reinvestment. A modest U.S. presence—focused on advising Iraqi forces, enabling counterterrorism operations, and providing targeted economic and diplomatic engagement—can go a long way. This light-touch approach won’t dominate headlines or stretch budgets, but it can preserve hard-won gains and prevent the kind of collapse that would demand a far costlier re-entry. 

It is sad and frustrating that so many Americans don't appreciate our victory.

We can't wage Phase IX of the Iraq War to defeat Iran from over the horizon. 

UPDATE: Is pulling out of Ain al-Asad and Victoria, two major Iraqi bases, to concentrate in Iraq's more friendly Kurdish region a smart move that denies Iran easy targets while maintaining American influence?

By stationing forces in Erbil, the United States maintains fire control, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities across Iraq, Syria, and, if necessary, Iran.

Do Iraqis really see American troops as occupiers? Or is it just the usual pro-Iran proxy suspects? The Iraqi government likes our troop presence, having experienced doing without them from 2011 through 2014 when ISIL rose up.

I worry it increases Iranian prestige and power as the mullahs boast of driving Americans out.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Boomerangs on the West

Failing to help Ukraine win could actually give Russia an asset in the long run. Ukraine was once yoked to Soviet ambitions notwithstanding Ukraine's resistance to Russification--like many other nations within the Soviet empire. The Russians could do that again.

The war continues. Even as Russia continues to plow forward slowly while suffering high casualties, it seems to me as if Ukraine is managing bigger and more effective local counter-attacks recently. What's up with that? I'm not the only one noticing.

I've long worried that if the West won't help Ukraine win that over time the Ukrainians will resent the West and tilt toward Russia as a better chance for peaceful lives despite the price. The first step could be a "peace" deal that leaves Ukraine exposed to further Russian aggression when NATO's attention wanes:

JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, has a global trends advisory organization called the Center for Geopolitics. One of its recent studies believes the Ukraine war’s likely outcome is a mixed deal between Russia and Ukraine without foreign troops or security guarantees.

Their timing is off since their projected date in their report already passed. But the most likely outcome (of four offered) is depressing: 

The third outcome is labeled “Georgia”, which the report’s authors say has a 50% chance of adoption. This scenario rules out foreign troops and other security and financial guarantees. It would potentially include a package of reconstruction assistance, but not using frozen Russian assets for the purpose.

Under the scenario, Ukraine would not be integrated into either the European Union or NATO. The authors think that if the Georgia outcome wins out, Ukraine will drift inexorably into the Russian orbit for trade and other reasons.

The authors argue that “Restrictions on military size and capacity – if part of a negotiated settlement – could prematurely stifle Ukraine’s dynamic defense and tech sectors, erasing a potential engine of postwar growth.”

And then all we've done with years of arming and helping Ukraine fight is help a potential vassal of Russia--the worst case scenario--get better at warfare yoked to Moscow's objectives. 

And the same flip in Ukrainian attitudes--hey, they need to survive under Moscow's cruel rule--could take place if Russia wins on the battlefield:

Despite fierce resistance and brilliant innovation, Ukraine is losing ground at an unsustainable rate, and morale is dropping. While it would still take quite a few years on paper for Russia to achieve its war goals, the fact is that collapse at the front may be imminent.

I'm not sure what to make of one soldier's view through the straw of his limited experience for making a broader statement. But my fears tell me he could be right. The front is a lava-flow stalemate, but behind the slow-moving lines things are happening. I've hoped Russia's war effort would collapse first yet feared Ukraine's could.

Helping Ukraine win--a possibility Trump raised as Russia returned to "nyet" form after the Alaska meeting--would ease my worries of a rapid or slow absorption of Ukraine's military potential into Russia's war making capacity. If America won't directly provide military aid to Ukraine (intelligence is another matter) to tip that balance to Ukraine, will America undermine Russia's economy to tip the balance that way?

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. It didn't get the NATO part right. Or the Moldova area. But close enough for blogging work.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: The Soldier is a Weapon

In case you missed it on Substack: American and Russian Nukes

In case you missed it on Substack: Army Transformation

In case you missed it on Substack: Thucydides Didn't Have the Distance We Have

A U.S. company linked a F-35 to a quadcopter targeting drone. The "test involved using the quadcopter to illuminate ground targets with a laser designator, enabling the stealth fighter to release and guide four inert GBU-12 Paveway II bombs with accuracy." Options expand when sensor and shooter are separated.

Israelis protest ("mostly peacefully"!) to end the war with Hamas; Palestinians get murdered for calling for Hamas to end its rule of Gaza. Tips to Instapundit.

I've been aware of the issue for decades but never knew if it is hype or real: "While EMPs are very real, they’re not the magic wands that can bring an entire country and its military to its knees."

Ukraine sank a Russian cargo ship importing weapons from Iran in the Caspian Sea with a drone.

Making good jihadis: "U.S. forces carried out a series of airstrikes against al-Shabab in Somalia at the start of the month, the latest escalation of the American involvement in the country." Escalation? No. Supply and demand? Yes.

LOL. Yeah, that's Africa's problem. I say they can use whatever map presentation tool they want. 

The Navy will soon no longer have cruisers, a class of ship it's had for 120 years. But don't worry, new "destroyers" will have much greater tonnage. A rose by any other name. Alright, I understand cruisers now have command and control capabilities destroyers don't have. I'm sure some will squeeze that in.

If those Chinese warships (one PLAN and one CCG) had collided with the Philippine coast guard vessel they were harassing rather than with each other, would we have invoked the U.S.-Philippines defense pact?

Drones helped achieve this: "So far Russia has lost over a million soldiers dead and wounded and another million soldiers and military age men who fled the country. Ukrainian losses have been fewer than 100,000 dead, about ten percent of them civilians." But drones can't close with and destroy the enemy. 

To repeat, Spider's Web was a flashy special forces operation and not a capability for day-to-day combat: "It took Ukrainians nearly two years to plan what they called Operations Spider Web." 

China has so much to thank Russia for: "NATO nations providing Ukraine with [air defense missiles] have gained a lot of experience in using these weapons against modern missiles. That means if the United States is ever at war with China their missile defenses will be much more capable."

Ukraine's surface drones have grown in capabilities.  

Will the West neutralize Russia's dark fleet of tankers moving the product? "The Russian economy and war effort in Ukraine is financed by oil and other energy exports." 

Is France's guiding role in its former African colonies--Françafrique--over? If they have progressed enough to take care of their security, that's great. If they count on Russia for security, France will be back.

Russia is counting on its new frigate design to be the core of the Russian fleet. Nooo!!! Don't settle for mere frigates, Russia!

The European Union's Von der Leyen's presence at the White House meeting about the Winter War of 2022 seems like a symbolic reward to her for signing the US-EU trade deal allowing her to pretend the EU has sovereign power. 

An ARG/MEU? Really? "The Navy and Marine Corps deployed thousands of sailors and Marines to the southern Caribbean on Friday in support of anti-drug cartel operations." Plus aircraft, a submarine, and a surface warship. Just going to observe that Venezuela is nearby. 

China is working on a crewed tilt-rotor aircraft. More grains of sand to build the PLA beachhead.

Ukraine has developed a "new cruise missile called Flamingo, which reportedly has a range of 1,864 miles (3,000 kilometers)[.]"  There is a debate about the design origins. But it seems pretty basic.

Can AI restructure longstanding command structures? Doing more with a broader range of assets with fewer staff and being able to displace quickly would be great. Will AI expand span of control?

Will the people decide a different government is necessary? "Currently only about 40 percent of Iranians consider themselves Moslems and most adhere to other faiths, including the ancient Iranian Zoroastrianism." And if so, will enough security forces defend the mullah government with violence? 

We need to do more: "Over the last decade, the United States has been prosecuting, prosecuting and convicting a growing number of Chinese born men, and a few women, conspiring to commit or actually carrying out economic and other espionage in the United States." 

Is this aimed at Israel or is Israel just the convenient excuse? "The Jordanian Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF) will reinstate conscription starting February 2026[.]" 

It amuses me that so many in the West are shocked the trans-Atlantic alliance remains firm. If you'd listened to me rather than the clown show media here and in Europe you'd know better. It has always been about re-balancing defense efforts. Stop panicking yourself with fantasy and hallucination.

LOL: "Repeated foreign occupation is not the answer. Haiti can address its own problems." Have fun storming the castle! 

I'm always amused when a ruler lacking power to achieve ambitions is credited with having a "long game." This time it is Erdogan and Turkey. Usually it is China wrongly credited. 

China has unveiled a next generation design with a common hull for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. 

The U.S. is contesting Chinese efforts to gain influence in Pacific island nations. I say hop on the islands before we are forced to island-hop.

My earlier hunch was correct: "The United States is deploying three Aegis guided-missile destroyers to the waters off Venezuela as part of President Donald Trump’s effort to combat threats from Latin American drug cartels[.]" That's impressive firepower for dealing with cartels.

CRS report to Congress on U.S.-Taiwan relations. 

The Army wants industry help for the "Air-Ground Littoral, which it describes as the increasingly drone-filled area between the ground and a 'few thousand' feet up." I called that region the "brown skies" (with the Air Force in the higher blue skies) in this older Army article advocating small fighter drones.

The Philippines is the front line of Australia's defense line: "Around 3,600 personnel from the Philippines, Australia, Canada and the U.S. kicked off the second iteration of the Australian-Philippine drills last week in Palawan." 

I mentioned the report before, but it stands repeating: "Replacing old-fashioned firepower with a purely drone force would be a blunder." Tanks and the forces supporting them must evolve, of course.

It's no Kuznetsov, but it will have to do for Putin's quest for a Red sports car: "For the first time since 1997, the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov is finally back in the water and moving under its own power, after years of repair work and modernization." The crew is relieved.

Two American B-1 bombers escorted by Swedish and Hungarian Gripen fighters flew over Latvia to reassure locals of NATO resolve. 

Italy's planned bridge connecting Sicily to the mainland will probably count toward the NATO defense spending target. Well, yeah. I thought that was the whole point of the final 1.5 percentage points of the NATO 5% of GDP pledge. And I still don't know how America fulfills the pledge.

They should be moved to an isolated Arctic island where the ice will cool their jihadi fervor for a few decades. 

We have a Navy shipbuilding crisis. And that applies more generally to all ship construction. 

What alternate universe of immunity from consequences do the Russians live in? 

Why is the U.S. dumping money into updated old F-22s? Because they are still excellent, are what we have right now, and if war breaks out soon we can't wait for the 6th generation F-47? But I'm just spitballing.

I hope we didn't just lose an LPD. 

China's nukes. Add that into America's and Russia's arsenals. 

Not a shock that Cuban mercenaries are fighting for Russia. 

Russia shows no interest in actual peace with a sovereign Ukraine. Or anyone west of Ukraine, as I've warned. I'm just tired of Moscow's BS.

China's subliminal offensive in the South China Sea is getting more overt. 

Oh, FFS: "Iranian-backed groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen, use Western cellphones to track merchant ships in the Red Sea by pinging them for their GPS locations. Even on warships, where communications are encrypted, sailors’ phones are not." That's their ISR? 

Every Marine a rifleman drone operator? I'm just not seeing the Marine Corps laser-like focus on seizing islands from enemies that Strategypage sees.

Will putting an Admiral in charge of Norfolk Naval Shipyard solve its problems? But even at peak efficiency, America still needs more shipyards. 

Is Russia losing?  Maybe. I do think Russia is building a Potemkin Victory facade to persuade the West to give up. But I won't say Russia can't win. 

Are the Russian people willing to submit? Or perhaps more relevant, are distant republics going to secede? "Russia is increasingly becoming a full police state. New laws reinstate many of the arbitrary powers once held by Soviet police and intelligence officials."  

Israel called up 60,000 reservists to finally take Gaza to eliminate Hamas. 

Extending helicopter usefulness for "close" air support: "Upgrades to the UH-60 Black Hawks will allow the helicopters to carry and deploy the Army's 'launched effects' drones, expected to field in 2026." 

Is China entering the long-range bomber arena? 

North Korea built a nuclear missile base as far from South Korea and Japan as it could. But since it is vulnerable to China taking it over, is a ship-based nuclear force meant to blunt that threat? 

I would have bet it was shoddy Russian maintenance practices: "A Ukrainian man was arrested in Italy suspected of coordinating the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines[.]" 

It offends me as a history and political science major that people don't understand the 3/5 rule. Slave owners wanted 5/5, that is each slave unable to vote still counted as a person for deciding how many Electoral College votes a state got. Free states wanted 0/5. 3/5 was a compromise to keep America united.

Agni-5: "India has said it successfully test-fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile that, when operational, should be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to any part of China." 

Arguing that Somalia's continued state unity is vital for regional stability is just deluded given the past 3+ decades actual experience of pretending Somalia is a unified state.

How Africa became the global epicenter of ISIL. Give America's war on terror that much credit. Sad for Africa but keeping the Middle East from being the epicenter is actually progress. But that's why AFRICOM is needed. But I suppose AFRICOM did get The AFRICOM Queen.

Friction: "Russia and China had well-delineated roles in Central Asia — with Russia emphasizing political and security aspects, while China pursued economic cooperation — China is [now] showing signs of both becoming a more political actor and being more proactive in the security arena." The flag follows trade.

China sets its sights on East Timor. Mindanao was unavailable for comment.  

If America helps Ukraine with long-range missiles, Russia's Kerch Strait bridge might finally be dropped, complicating Russian logistics to its Crimea and western conquests; and Russia may find its European refineries getting hit more often.

Battling the 155mm shell shortage with a new production facility. 

China deployed armed small boats around Second Thomas Shoal. You may recall that eastern West Berlin. 

Is Canada foolish enough to rely on trading with China rather than dealing with internal sources of problems and negotiating trade terms with America? 

The long line of American heavy bombers. Oddly the B-1 is not mentioned. 

The X-37B returned to space for missions unknown. Sure, some are announced. But come on ... But space enthusiasts, allies, and enemies will no doubt have a go at tracking it.

I assume this was a Delta Force-led operation: "U.S. troops killed a suspected senior member of the Islamic State group, or ISIS, during an Aug. 19 raid in northern Syria, defense officials have announced."

Did Trump "botch" the chance for "peace" in the Winter War of 2022? No. This type of analysis assumes that only the U.S. has agency and everyone else passively waits for America to put forward the right plan or use the right words to move the lever of their decisions. Russia doesn't want peace.

The fire-damaged LPD USS New Orleans sailed into an Okinawa port under its own power. 

So other than American power projection forces, military facilities, and missile defenses, Alaska is neglected? "Despite Alaska’s undeniable role in the Indo-Pacific, providing a launch pad for force projection and missile defense, for three decades America has let its Pacific Arctic flank erode." 

What if Russians unhappy with the bloody and costly war assassinate Putin and blame Ukraine? Or blame NATO?

The same was said for giving Hitler the Sudetenland: "For peace in Ukraine, Russia needs 'security guarantees' too " How far West?! Should free NATO promise not to appeal to oppressed Russians? Face it, Russia needs security guarantees against China--not NATO. This is why Responsible Statecraft is useless.

The ISIL threat to Europe is rising. 

The problem with bomb damage assessment. So I'm open-minded about what Midnight Hammer achieved. Especially since I think Iran has a major path to nuclear weapons we don't discuss.  

The complaint that Trump didn't arrest Putin when he arrived in Alaska is insane. You don't arrest the leader of a country with that many nukes. 

How long could America cope with similar attacks on our refineries? "Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in tandem are impacting Russia's fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues." 

Iran retains a willing proxy: "A security source confirmed to the 'Post' that Israel is carrying out airstrikes in Sanaa in response to Friday’s missile launch by the Houthis toward Israeli territory." 

Jihadis are in full murder mode as Nigeria is forced to act: "Nigeria's military has killed 35 jihadists in a series of air strikes near its north-eastern border with Cameroon, it said in a statement." Just 35 is a rookie number of "good jihadis." 

That's a BS red herring concession: "The Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Ali Larijani, is the leading official to lower the country's uranium enrichment to 20% purity, down from 60%." Especially if the alternative path is being implemented. 

To be clear, this is being done to prevent Palestinians from getting into Egypt: "Egyptian officials are concerned about the IDF taking over Gaza City, and fearing the humanitarian and military repercussions of any such invasion." 

Is it just me, or is this story on Israel's recent campaign against Iran a bunch of gee whiz terminology and gobbledygook that doesn't really say anything? Mind you, I'd expect the Israelis not to explain any details as a basic security practice. So maybe the smoke and mirrors show is deliberate.

The surge of hits from Vietnam for over a month finally receded. This seemingly indexed my content (many times over); and I'm getting noticeably more hits--but some are indexing the site--from South America and Asia. Welcome! And what's up with the Russian speaker in Cuba?