The Tumen River Bridge and Strategy

Russia and North Korea are forging closer ties. How close will they get? And can they emerge out of China's shadow (and dominance)?

This article examines the Tumen River bridge project that Russia and North Korea joined to build. In addition to discussing the bridge capacity, the essay writes of its broader purpose:

Although attention often focuses on military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, their relationship extends well beyond arms sales, technology transfers, and direct combat support. Pyongyang seeks to strengthen bilateral ties to address its domestic socio-economic issues and to maintain leverage in its often fraught relationship with Beijing - a strategy it has pursued for decades. In this context, the regime’s top priority is survival, which also requires a degree of economic stability, including access to food, energy, and other essential resources that Russia can provide. ... 

While the new bridge and related initiatives are likely to strengthen economic ties, it would be premature to describe the bridge construction as transformative - or as something that could overnight shift the geopolitical balance, either regionally or on the Korean Peninsula. 

It's nice to read this. I figured something was up with Russia and North Korea teaming up to loosen China's grip on both of them. Especially in light of closer defense ties that include North Koreans fighting and dying in Russia's war against Ukraine. North Korea is better prepared to fight because of this relationship. What does North Korea expect from Russiain return for dead North Korean troops?

And while the geopolitical balance isn't shifted overnight with this tentative link, how might this path unfold to shift the balance over time?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the Frontelligence essay.

Don't Get Tunnel Vision With China

The world outside of INDOPACOM is not a safe haven that America can safely ignore.

Excellent point:

At times, the strategic conversation of the United States appears to be a zero-sum bargaining exercise: push the majority of assets to the Indo-Pacific Region, do away with other theaters such as the Middle East. This is an incorrect template for questioning. The right approach is not about where to invest all the assets, but rather how to best organize American power and allied industrial capabilities so that the US can deter high-end war in the Indo-Pacific while also being meaningfully involved and resilient in other regions. The alternative, however, is brittle: either to be overcommitted or to invite strategic surprise.

Agreed. Surely a pivot to the Pacific is justified. But the rest of the world is composed of economy-of-force fronts that need lesser amounts of routine American military attention. 

The author advises three pillars of policy template:

1. The logistics and force posture to avoid a theater-wide Pearl Harbor, as I've called it.
2. Increasing joint production capabilities with allies. Production is key. 
3. Build forces to last rather than assuming short and glorious wars. Agreed.

I've warned against tunnel vision in regard to the China threat. 

And while a potentially dangerous threat, remember that China is the "pacing" threat and not an acute threat that both Russia and Iran are. As a pacing threat China has the type of military that we must match our military capabilities against. Pace China and lesser threats are within our capabilities, too. And if those threats are acute, we must defeat them.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

The Winter War of 2022 Forgets the Body Count Loophole

I don't think Ukraine can use a body count strategy to defeat Russia. Russia has the strategic initiative on the ground and so can regulate its expenditure of men and materiel to what it believes it can cope with. 

The war goes on. Ukraine seems to have pulled its troops out of the most distant parts of their Pokrovsk salient. But Russia has yet to capture or trap Ukrainian troops still there. Ukraine is counter-attacking, hopefully to allow a withdrawal from the near-pocket. Russia is deploying more troops to this region. And depending on who I read it is either to exploit their success or to cope with their failure to maintain momentum.

There is lots of talk about a proposed deal that is being portrayed as a virtual ultimatum to Ukraine but which Russia has already rejected as anything but a basis for talks. I remain worried "peace" will just be a period of Russia reloading. And Ukraine must agree with the final agreement. And yes, the sale or lease of some territory may be necessary. 

Absent a Russian ground force collapse or financial and government collapse in Moscow, Ukraine won't retake significant territory--let alone all of it. I hope Russia is struggling to hold up their Potemkin Village of confidence. Yet I can't rule out a Ukrainian breakdown somewhere on the front line that proves fatal operationally. 

The Ukrainians with their drone line hopes to inflict casualties on the Russians so heavy that the Russians can't continue the war. Ukraine's top drone commander is focusing on killing enemy drone operators. But that is a sub-goal:

More broadly, he says drones must aim to kill or wound as many Russian troops as are deployed in Ukraine each month — a number estimated at 35,000. This can be achieved by creating a deep “kill zone” between the frontline and traditionally safer rear areas. 

To feed the Red Machine throwing itself at Ukraine's defenses, Russia is mobilizing reservists purportedly for local defense:

The Kremlin has begun involuntary partial reserve call-ups as part of its wider initiative to build out its active reserve, likely for use in combat in Ukraine.

Can Ukraine out-kill Russian mobilization efforts? Let's go to the Vietnam War for a relevant lesson. 

McNamara (a secretary of defense during the Vietnam War) in a 1998 interview described America's "crossover point" strategy in the war:

Well, the strategy, as it evolved, became a strategy of attrition, that the South, with US assistance, would inflict such losses on the North, that the flow of supplies and personnel from the North would be unable to replenish it, and the crossover point would come, where the forces of the North and the Vietcong in the South would become weaker and weaker and weaker, because they could not be reinforced, the losses could not be replaced from the North. Others amongst us believed that crossover point would never come. It never did. 

In part it never crossed over because the killing of North Vietnamese troops was done on the strategic defensive. That meant that when casualties got too much for North Vietnam to cope with, it slowed down its attacks to let its ability to generate men and materiel to send south catch up with losses.

America needed the ability and willingness to go on offense to maintain the killing rate under that strategy. Whether within South Vietnam and and into neighboring territory, if not all the way to Hanoi.

Indeed, I observed this aspect of a body count strategy regarding the Iran-Iraq War:

By simply pausing instead of furiously fighting Lemming-like until all weapons and ammunition are expended, these two states fought for nearly eight years. 

While that was about the materiel side, this applies to manpower side in the Winter War of 2022. If human losses get too bad, Russia can rein in their offensives to recover. 

The most interesting thing about the crossover point strategy in Vietnam is that despite America's inflated body count, I read that the North Vietnamese actually lost more troops than we tracked. That meant our "inflated" count turned out to be accurate.

And the crossover strategy still didn't work. 

Mind you, killing the enemy isn't bad. Especially when it is all you can do in the face of relentless Russian ground attacks. Russia is no doubt hurting despite government chest thumping and poo flinging. 

But Ukraine needs the ability to go on offense if it hopes to have a reasonable chance of overwhelming Russia's ability to cope with casualties and achieving an operational effect that helps liberate at least some of their territory.

And maybe compel Putin--or people around him who insist--to agree to peace. 

UPDATE (Monday): All the panic about America siding with Russia was premature:

A joint statement [by Ukraine and America] said talks on a US-backed plan in Geneva, which are now understood to have concluded, were "highly productive".

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been a "tremendous amount of progress" on honing the plan, but there was "still some work to be done" before a final agreement could be put to Russia.

As I observed in the recent Weekend Data Dump:

I remain unclear on what the proposed peace deal in the Winter War of 2022 means. There is a lot of panic. And I do have concerns. I support Ukraine. But there has long been reflexive panic not validated by reality. And even concern based on Trump's Taliban deal must consider changes under Biden.  

Breathe, people. 

UPDATE (Monday): The deal could eventually be something Ukraine can accept. 

Keep in mind that Russia already rejected the first draft that started with U.S.-Russian talks. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): If the still evolving peace deal works out, I suspect Europeans will get the best of both worlds. One, they won't need to arm up to seriously battle Russia--which they absolutely do not want to do and may not be able to do in any reasonable time frame. And two, Europeans can blame America for preventing the Europeans from decisively defeating Russia. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Small Drones Seek Their Role

In case you missed it on Substack: Is MDO Fading into One More Ghost to Haunt Army Operations?

In case you missed it on Substack: The Thin Blue Line

In case you missed it on Substack: What China Can Learn From the Winter War of 2022

The future! "Ukrainian forces employed unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to detect a Russian mechanized assault toward Rusyn Yar (south of Druzhkivka) that exploited foggy conditions." This compensated for lack of infantry. It is just a robot version of old observation/listening posts.

Hmm: "The Department of State intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), ... headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime[.]" The cartel has links to Hezbollah (and Iran). What's up? 

A major corruption scandal in Ukraine is no reason to let even more corrupt Russia win its cruel invasion. Honestly, the Russians would be foolish not to stoke corruption in Ukraine. As I've said for many years, Ukraine needs to defeat corruption to defeat Russia in the long run. And I did warn about current news. 

The essential difference between socialists and fascists/Nazis. All else is distinctions in the type of evil. 

Would it be shocking if Maduro hired them however indirectly? "A group of suspected Haitian gang members fired this week on American forces protecting the U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince, a spokesman said Saturday[.]" Marines returned fire.

25th Infantry Division with its new mobile brigade combat teams demonstrates drone warfare and island hopping. Fine, adopt drones--within combined arms warfare. But I have concerns about light units.

Best not to let anyone else salvage bits: "The US Navy has begun efforts to salvage a fighter jet and helicopter from the South China Sea, Breaking Defense has learned."

Good: "The US is planning for the long-term division of Gaza into a 'green zone' under Israeli and international military control, where reconstruction would start, and a 'red zone' to be left in ruins." Sounds like my suggestion from early in the war. 

I'd rather see ground force progress, but okay: "The US State Department today gave the greenlight for a massive $3.2 billion [naval air defense] missile deal with Germany." 

The U-Hawk. I know I mentioned the unmanned version of the UH-60 helicopter. 

Just going to note that the 7,000 ton frigate has displacement between a World War II light cruiser and a heavy cruiser: "Poland is initially building three of its Swordfish frigates based on the basic [British] Arrowhead design."

Remember, the army won't rely on them nearly as much as Ukraine does: "The U.S. Army’s new SkyFoundry initiative marks a historic acceleration in domestic drone production." 

Steel yourself for failures: "The Army is initiating massive organizational reforms for how it buys new weapons and capabilities in an effort to drastically shorten procurement timelines and promote innovation[.]" But it should still be better than the old process that had expensive failures. 

Of course foreign aid is a component of soft power if done right. But much was either wasted or hijacked for personal gain and domestic political action. 

I don't think Saudi Arabia needs a fully functional F-35 for its defense needs. If they get the plane for prestige, it should have reduced stealth and other capabilities.

China used "AI-driven" hacking. Like Covid-19, could this escape into the wild and evolve into something globally destructive? 

Will Xi's purges of the PLA upper leadership lead China to rely--at least for a while--on CCP-safe joint decapitation (political/infrastructure) strikes rather than invasion or blockade to absorb Taiwan? Hmm. Victory through air power with Chinese characters?

True: "Neither China nor the U.S. has an interest in undertaking military action against the other, especially in the absence of guaranteed success. Given the economic reality that undergirds their relationship, a hostile military engagement is irrational for both sides." The Thucydides Trap is no law.

Is it up to Trump to get shipbuilders to modernize, Congress to go along, and tap foreign expertise to expand warship building capacity? Modernized shipyards could build more warships with the same number of workers, no? 

Yes, Russia has nearly destroyed Belarus independence--but not totally. And that provides some hope for reversing Putin's success there. 

Will rain save Iran's mullah regime? If not, how will the mullahs explain Allah's apparent displeasure with the mullahs?

Russian analysts: Ukraine’s access to an unprecedented level of Western space-based reconnaissance support ...  [has] been able to provide near-continuous coverage of the battlespace, supplying Ukraine with a broad array of data on the location and composition of Russian combined arms formations." Indeed.

Spain's left-wing government has been stabilized on the surface with destabilizing immigration. The inevitable backfire is coming.

Can the French discredited and ossified center hold? Don't know. But if not, I'm sure the European Union will see opportunity in the crisis. 

Well, it sure would be nice if the West stopped shooting itself in the foot as China tries to race ahead. 

Operating on the assumption that the UN will save Hamas, Hamas is backing off from the American 20-point peace plan. Time for Plan B. 

The planes will take a decade to complete delivery: "Ukraine will get up to 100 France's Rafale F4 fighter jets as well as advanced air defence systems[.]" 

How desperate is Russia to risk war with NATO? "Poland's prime minister has said an explosion on a railway line leading to the Ukraine border this weekend was caused by 'an unprecedented act of sabotage', and vowed to catch those responsible 'regardless of who their backers are'." 

The author writes China has been doing this in case Trump revives nuclear testing: "In far western Xinjiang, satellite imagery and expert analysis show that China is rapidly expanding a historic nuclear test site, where it conducted its first atomic bomb test in 1964." Seriously? It's Trump's fault?

Israel's longstanding arsenal has not worried the Saudis: "Saudi Arabia has long desired to match the military and nuclear capabilities of its regional rivals — Iran and Israel." The Saudis worry that Iran--which says it should control holy sites in Saudi Arabia--will get nukes to enforce dominance. 

Statements and testimony are not "evidence". I don't know what happened at Haditha. But this is "accusation".

Huh: "President Donald Trump on Monday did not rule out military action against Venezuela despite bringing up a potential diplomatic opening with leader Nicolás Maduro[.]" To work, Maduro has to believe the threat is serious. Would Maduro look the other way if another threat is in our crosshairs?

I sure hope we have a version for export that doesn't have all the bells and whistles: "'I will say that that we will be doing that,' Trump said when asked if he would sell the jets to Saudi Arabia. 'We’ll be selling F-35s.'" Still, selling F-15s when they were top of the line worked out.

What could possibly go wrong? 

With three you get power projection: "For the PLA, moving from dual-carrier cooperation to three-carrier regional operations would not necessarily signal imminent war, but rather serve as a tool of gunboat diplomacy and showing the flag – leveraging naval presence for coercive and deterrent effect." Could be. 

Week three of war for reestablishing NATO's the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line? "The drills marked the first major exercise for the headquarters, which was formed from a merger between the 56th Artillery Command and 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force." Kill Russia's air defense and air power can do wonders.

I am sure that creating Golden Dome will be expensive given its needed scope. But if it only protects critical homeland and power projection infrastructure it will be sufficient.

Peace requires the destruction of Hamas and its satellite jihadis: "The U.N. Security Council on Monday approved a U.S. plan for Gaza that authorizes an international stabilization force to provide security in the devastated territory and envisions a possible future path to an independent Palestinian state."

From the "Well, Duh" files: INDOPACOM Edition. 

America and Vietnam have not announced any major arms deal. America can sell arms to Vietnam to oppose China--but we can't replace Russian weapons. So give Vietnam a break for their position, eh?

Russia risks hitting NATO territory in its attack on a Turkish tanker in potential American natural gas imports area.

Iran signals the Samson Option in the Hormuz Strait: "Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last week, U.S. Central Command announced late Sunday night." What is Iran willing to risk? And what are we willing to do?

The ISV has to stop eventually: "This vehicle depends on speed and maneuverability to keep the troops safe." I don't like the ISV. You can call it "agile" all you want, but it doesn't mean that's protection. 

America needs a broad effort to restore its defense industrial base. 

The Solomon Islands is a tiny country. But what China did there is something China tries to do here. 

Yeah, Britain should dump the ECHR to get the authority to eject illegal immigrants and dangerous migrants gaming the system. The idea that getting out is useless unless it addresses the root causes of migrants landing on British shores is a ludicrous argument. Save the world first to protect Britain? Feh.

"Outwardly strong, inwardly brittle". Western useful idiots praise China on propaganda tourism trips while China's people have to live there.

To be fair, the Pope and other Christian leaders in the West don't care--or care more about not being accused of so-called Islamophobia.

Putin sure is working overtime to push Europeans to confiscate Russian assets in Europe: "Two Ukrainian citizens who have long worked for Russian intelligence have been identified as the suspects behind two acts of sabotage on Poland's rail network[.]" 

This boosts government finances--not the economy: "Russian lawmakers endorsed new tax hikes on Tuesday as Moscow looks for new revenue sources to boost its economy during its nearly four-year war with Ukraine." 

The cost of shooting down a cheap threat must consider the cost of failing to shoot down the threat. Preaching to the TDR choir. But sure, having enough defensive weapons is key. 

World War I on the Western Front is still a fine analogy for the war in Ukraine in that there is now a very wide firepower-swept No-Man's Land. If you want advice on learning lessons from World War I stalemate, I will obviously recommend my recent Army article. But sure, it is different.

"Crawl, walk, run" begins with sad-looking crawling. 

Simulating defending a World Cup match in Seattle: "The simulations explored possible drone launch sites and tactics attackers could use, and tested interagency cooperation in response to evolving threats."  

The Army and Navy shaping operations prior to the battle in their annual football game. 

I have that game. But it takes too damn long to play. So I don't know if my strategy of maximizing improvements to South Vietnamese units while limiting American offensive combat to one region at a time before moving on would have worked. In the game, of course. 

The large unmanned R6000 tilt-rotor for Chinese service. I noted the aircraft before in relation to an invasion of Taiwan. It's one more means of depositing grains of sand on Taiwan to create a beachhead. 

The U.S. approved the sale of Patriot missile system upgrades that will allow Ukraine to fire every type of Patriot missile.

China experiencing significant shrinkage: "The population decline is set to accelerate, with China’s male-female imbalance presenting limiting factors not faced by the rest of Asia." But China just got out of the pool! 

Mali effed up. It trusted the Russians: "On October 28 the U.S. embassy in Bamako called on all United States citizens to immediately leave Mali. France has also ordered its citizens to leave." Islamis chaos in Mali that pushes migrants into Europe to disrupt it is mission accomplished for Putin. And Mali paid him!

The June strikes shocked Iran: "The Iranians believed Israel would refrain from action before the next round of nuclear weapons negotiations, dismissing Israeli moves as mere propaganda to extract concessions." But we will totally detect and accurately interpret PLA preparations to invade Taiwan. 

Yeah, suicide drones are much like past human kamikaze attackers. I've made the comparison. But the scale is much greater now. 

Not so quiet big stick: "The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group joined Philippine and Japanese vessels in the South China Sea over the weekend in what was Washington’s largest show of force near Scarborough Shoal in years, following a series of maritime incidents between China and allied nations in the region."

I really don't get this article about Taiwan needing "a clear 'Concord' – a structured, peaceful resolution or unified response" after "Lexington" confrontations to prevent war. Concord was the beginning of war and in no way a structured, peaceful resolution. We didn't need unity prior to the fight. And never had it after.

Okay: "NATO has finally unveiled its new Alliance Maritime Strategy, ... [which] centers maritime power as the backbone of NATO’s ability to 'fight tonight' and 'fight tomorrow.'" But I have far more worries about getting NATO combat brigades to the front, as I addressed in Army magazine.

I've long said Japan might directly fight at our side to help Taiwan defeat Chinese aggression. Now there isn't much of "might" left. Japan has high interest ("survival-threatening situation") and intent to fight if necessary. 

Britan's Labour Party just doesn't want the unpleasant optics of migrants landing in small boats on Britain's shores. Paid migrant flights with in-flight meals to follow, I assume. 

Finally, an article about Europe preparing to fight (to deter) Russia that is firmly anchored in NATO, rather than a thinly veiled effort to exploit a problem to strengthen the European Union. 

Well, duh. Their "national will" is slaughtering Jews: "Hamas and other factions in Gaza said the United States-led effort will act as a framework 'that paves the way for field arrangements imposed outside the Palestinian national will'." Pave away.

Who is Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa? A jihadi pretending to be "moderate" who is buying time to save their caliphate. And if he is sincere, jihadis will kill him. Heck, jihadis will kill him for pretending too long.

Maduro's empire of dirt will survive through those beneath him feasting on the Venezuela's bones and marrow. Even his removal will make regime change difficult. I don't assume that is the objective.

I doubt the Sainted International Community® can be shamed into caring about the actual persecution, slaughter, and ethnic cleansing of a non-approved group. 

FYI, as a new Army recruit I was taught that I was only obligated to obey lawful orders. Also, orders had to come through the lawful chain of command. So a video reminding troops of the former responsibility are unnecessary. Also, "lawful" does not mean "that which you disagree with."

Nigeria claims Moslems are killing and abusing Christians for reasons totally unrelated to religion. But it would like American help fighting those attackers with no religious motivations. Nigeria was happy to ignore the problem until threatened with military action. 

Russia is a-hole.

We've fought to save many, but few are grateful: "At a time when America’s image among ordinary Muslims is overwhelmingly negative, Kosovo stands as a unique example of a country where Muslims wave the American flag with pride." Glad to see Saudi efforts to promote radical Islam apparently failed.

Poland will deploy 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure following Russia's sabotage escalation. 

Hmm: "The number of major accidents involving military aircraft spiked in 2024, internal Pentagon figures show, and a series of high-profile aviation mishaps with deaths and the loss of aircraft in 2025 suggest the disturbing trend may be continuing." 

I heard British journalists claiming America is proving to be an unreliable ally. Because we don't write a blank check and do what they want? Did Europeans sign up enthusiastically for Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (twice), the Balkans, Somalia, or Afghanistan? Or fully go along with all our policies? Damn few.

Well, good luck containing cost overruns. Fingers crossed.

Sadly, drugs are so lucrative for the people who issue the orders to smuggle and enjoy the profits that even killing smugglers to reduce the flow can be countered by shoving more drugs into the pipeline. Doesn't mean you don't kill smugglers at sea. Does mean other means are necessary, too. No silver bullets.

Sure would be nice to get even closer to solving Gulf War Syndrome cause before the veterans die. 

Other than electronic warfare, this is the way for maneuver units to be protected: "A U.S. Army exercise with NATO allies saw soldiers take out attacking drones by launching small interceptor drones from the back of a pickup truck." I've argued for them to let Army combat units focus on killing ground enemies.

And to get more, you may be able to stop at 85: "the Pentagon will be more willing to buy a system that provides “the 85% solution” now and the full solution later." 

The EU is here to help: "The European Union rolled out a new defense package on Wednesday to allow tanks and troops to deploy more rapidly across the many borders of the 27-nation bloc in the event of a conflict[.]" The EU has been failing to solve this problem for quite some time. Once more with feeling!

Britain's new ammunition production and related facilities will rely on exports to stay ready for war. Good luck with that.

Russia works to widen societal divisions in the West. And we too often magnify the effort all too enthusiastically. Just note how much domestic division Russia's small, amateurish, and crude 2016 election propaganda unleashed in America. Divisions still driving our politics. Useful idiots, indeed.

Israel is beefing up air force base defenses, including a rapid response force. This follows intelligence from the Hamas October 7, 2003 rape and murder invasion that showed intent to hit IAF bases.

From the river to ... where? "A network of Hamas terror-affiliated infrastructure across Europe was exposed by the Mossad, ... as it revealed the prolonged investigation it had conducted with European intelligence and law enforcement to thwart planned attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets." Hezbollah?

Can the Army achieve the replacement of the Bradley with the XM30? The Bradley remained good enough to justify keeping it with the alternatives offered. The Ukrainians sure like them.

If the Marines are incapable of replicating their Fallujah (round two) victory because of Force Design, the Marines can't conduct opposed  amphibious operations. Indeed, in JFQ (pp. 38-42) I advocated a division of labor by having the Marines master urban warfare because of opposed landing capabilities.

When I read that building drone warships is the key to providing the Navy with numbers, I shudder when I consider how much bigger China's shipbuilding is that could outmatch us in that production battle, too. 

Iraqi leaders face water shortages, economic problems, and figuring out how to resist Iranian pressure without getting murdered for their efforts. We need to prevent Iran from getting a victory in Iraq.

I'm going to ignore claims America is preparing to "betray" Ukraine for a deal favorable to Russia. I assume the hysteria is wrong until proven otherwise. That said, it would be a mistake to negotiate with Russia without Ukraine involved. It was a mistake to negotiate with the Taliban without Afghan allies. 

Are Pakistan's supreme court reforms killing whatever facade of democratic rule of law remains? Or is it battling creeping Islamic law? Pakistan has nukes. Islamists controlling Pakistan would be horrific. 

The joys of socialism: "Cuba's imports of crude and fuel in the first 10 months of the year fell more than a third compared with the same period of 2024 as key allies Mexico and Venezuela slashed supplies, ... preventing the Caribbean country from easing daily power cuts." The rest of the world trades with Cuba.

Reacting faster than an enemy. 

I suspect America is working to get Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in case Russia refuses to budge on talks to end the war. And the first story that Ukraine has the missiles will be about what targets they hit deep in Russia. 

Taiwan buys NASAMS to be core of anti-aircraft/cruise missile/drone capabilities. 

Why is Hezbollah's disarmament stalling? Because Lebanon and the UN won't, Hezbollah still wants to kill Jews, Israel isn't shooting at them, and because Hezbollah still has its New World empire to earn the money to re-arm. 

I reject the premise that America is retreating abroad. It seems more like we are insisting allies arm up, too; as we restore our ability to wage war. The end result will be a stronger West. 

Canada may buy the the Swedish Gripen instead of the F-35. Former Canadian military officers have urged the government to stick with the F-35. If Canada thinks restoring military capabilities needs the Gripen, fine. If it is to "snub" America, grow up.  Canada is a G7 state--not a sulky, Swiftie teenager.

The War on Terror would go better if our vast federal government wasn't so easy to rob blind to funnel money to overseas jihadis. Tip to Instapundit. 

Progress on building the Navy's new SSBN class. 

Russia insists its Su-75 stealth fighter will fly next year.oh? Oo0oh, that's scary.

Sh*t got real: "The [Leopard 2A8] tank will be a new build, the first for the Leopard series since 1992[.]" 

Russia's Rubicon drone unit conducts ground interdiction and counter-drone operations with bomber and fighter drones. What did I say about the latter mission? 

A reminder that just launching a ship doesn't make it combat ready: "The U.K. Carrier Strike Group, led by HMS Prince of Wales (R09), achieved full operating capability during NATO exercise Falcon Strike last week, more than a year and a half since the carrier took over as flagship of the strike group." 

If the Russians want to bizarrely insist NATO has been plotting invasion, let Moscow ponder this. 

The Philippines embraces the anti-access/area denial capability to discourage Chinese aggression. But this does nothing to stop China's non-military subliminal offensive on Philippine territory. 

India uses the S-400: "Russia recently discovered that the Pakistani ISI/ Inter-Services Intelligence agency was seeking to steal Russian military technology in the form of information on Russia’s S-400 air defense systems and helicopters."

I don't think the Army should distract itself with the responsibility for America's long-range, land-based nuclear missiles. 

Test it all: "Current exercise design and training environments do not adequately recreate the enemy kill web possible on the modern battlefield. Attempts at innovation at the division level are capability focused, without deep thought on the organizational structures that most effectively employ new capabilities." 

U.S.-Canada friction is something that the Bad Red Man stokes more than the Bad Orange Man that gets all the blame. 

LOL: "The fall of Mali isn’t just a tragic story of state failure in the Sahel; rather, it is emblematic of Russia’s shortcomings, priorities, and soft-power deficits. Russia’s model of assistance was tested and found wanting." Chaos to send migrants streaming into Europe is Russia's objective--not stability.

Sadly, death and destruction is in Venezuela's future regardless of the path--or America's role.

China will use civilian ships adapted for military missions in an invasion of Taiwan. There are lots of ways to move grains of sand ashore on Taiwan. I read that China has so many they don't know how to use them all. That means losses won't cripple the invasion. I strongly disagree China needs 300,000+ troops.

Now I'm hearing that Trump is pressuring Ukraine to take the deal as is. There are contradictions in the reporting. I think it would be a mistake if this is an ultimatum. But I need more clarity on what is going on. Keep in mind that Russia has rejected the terms--whatever they really are.

Sucks to be Sudan. 

This assessment will not hold up after counter-measures in equipment, tactics, and procedures at least partly fill the vacuum the new ammunition has exploited: "In Ukraine, swarms of FPV/First Person View drones have revolutionized how wars are fought." Combined arms are not repealed.

Will there be a DMZ in Ukraine? I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. And honestly, it is much farther east than I suspected it might be. If so, hold the line so "peace" isn't a chance for Russia to reload.

Shame on NATO Canada: "Canada and the European Union have signed a new Security and Defence Partnership focused on cyber defense, maritime security, hybrid threats and industrial resilience." The EU has its own objective and it has nothing to do with "reinforcing" NATO's Arctic front. 

"Central Asia steps into the sun". That's a good way to get burned. 

Israel isn't going to let Hezbollah be the only side waging war. 

So many in the green-red alliance in the West won't care that Hamas just lies about Israel. 

Scouting and shaping the cyber battlefield.

Rebuilding the Ukrainian navy with small boats.

Will Ethiopia and Eritrea go to war again? 

India: "India earlier this month inaugurated a high-altitude airbase near its disputed border with China, prompting analysts to suggest the development capped long-term efforts to upgrade infrastructure there rather than posing a threat to Beijing." Yes, India has infrastructure problems.

It's bad enough that social media dominated by a tiny minority of massively active extremists is treated as an ongoing public opinion poll. Now we see that foreign actors are pretending to be Americans to shift American policy. 

I remain unclear on what the proposed peace deal in the Winter War of 2022 means. There is a lot of panic. And I do have concerns. I support Ukraine. But there has long been reflexive panic not validated by reality. And even concern based on Trump's Taliban deal must consider changes under Biden. 

Warfare is Bloody at the Best of Times

As Russia bashes its troops against Ukraine's defensive belt, we seek alternative in maneuver to avoid that bloody fate. War is an all-of-the-above sort of endeavor where three basic forms of ground warfare blend into each other and trade places in what is most possible in any given time and place.

The flavors of ground warfare:

Military Science nerds will inevitably quibble over the above definitions and conceptions. Nevertheless, I think it provides a rough shorthand guide to how these ‘forms’ of warfare are conceived, especially by western militaries on a day-to-day level.

Do read it all. I added my two cents for avoiding stalemate in this Army article based on learning to cope with and overcome attritional warfare on the World War I Western Front to restore maneuver.

Have no doubt that attrition is a part of ground warfare. But it should not be the totality of ground warfare.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Table from the cited article. 

The FPV Suicide Drone is a Winter War of 2022 "10" and Great Power "7"

Persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) makes loitering FPV suicide drones effective. Loitering suicide drones are not the only means to exploit the surveillance. If your ISR is persistent, you can hit fleeting targets with other types of weapons.

Singing the praises of suicide drones: 

Loitering munitions are aerial weapons that can stay in the air while they search for a target, with some capable of returning to base in the case of unsuccessful target identification. While they operate similarly to armed drones, their self-destructive capabilities are what set them apart. Loitering munitions initially only played a limited role in the war in Ukraine, but the scope and scale of their use has grown dramatically such that they have become a key capability for modern militaries globally. 

If you have the information that the persistent battlefield ISR provides, couldn't other weapons provide the attack options? And might those weapons be superior to the FPV suicide drones once drone counter-measures spread through military formations?

Will it make sense to rely on manpower-intensive drone units that launch short-range FPV loitering munitions all along the front? Or will it make more sense to mostly use missiles from ground, air, and sea launchers as well as air-dropped glide bombs? High-altitude balloons could be a launch platform, too. 

These means of launching loitering munitions will provide the range to concentrate the loitering munitions and reach deep behind the lines, evading frontline short-range counter-measures.

Not that cheap FPV suicide drones--likely AI-flown--won't be part of a expanded combined arms effort. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Image from the article credited to Sergey Dzyuba via Shutterstock.com.

Spare a Little Nuance for Vietnam's Position

Vietnam is not aligning with Russia against America. China is the party that should worry.

Vietnam is buying Russian Su-35 fighter planes:

Vietnam has significantly increased its military purchases from Russia despite US efforts to counter Moscow’s war economy—and has done so using concealed financial channels, according to an investigation by The New York Times on October 27.

The probe, based on internal documents from Russian state exporter Rostec and interviews with officials from Vietnam, the US, and elsewhere, offers a rare view into how Vietnam’s willingness to buy Russian systems has quietly tipped its strategic alignment. ... 

Vietnam has historically depended on Soviet and Russian arms, but its current initiative is seen as a broader geopolitical shift: Hanoi is diversifying suppliers and hedging between Beijing, Moscow, and Washington as regional tensions intensify.

This is not an anti-American shift by Vietnam.Vietnam uses Russian weapons. It is difficult to switch suppliers rapidly. And Vietnam needs to counter looming China--not distant America. I see this arms deal as reinforcing Vietnam's anti-China posture. 

Breathe, people. And work up a little nuance.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE   Map from https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/red-against-red.html with my country notations added.

Run Away: INDOPACOM Edition

Ah, nuanced and--dare I say sophisticated--retreat from China is on the menu today. For so many Americans, there is always a greater threat we must prepare to face than the one standing in front of us.

Blaming America's "pivot" to the Pacific for increasing tensions:

The United States does not need to increase its military footprint in Asia to secure its core interests: defending the homeland and assuring American economic prosperity. Instead, U.S. national and regional security would be better protected by a reduced U.S. military presence alongside continued investment to help allies take responsibility for their own defence burden. Such a strategy will have its detractors, in Washington and in the region, but it will benefit all parties while dramatically reducing the risk of major power war. 

That is insane. How are things better if China's neighbors alone are too weak to stop China's territorial ambitions? By averting our eyes and distracting ourselves on TikTok?

One, America's pivot has consisted of prioritizing forces in the Pacific and increasing their quality; while force levels in Europe and the Middle East declined. 

Two, passivity in the face of aggression (a form of retreat) looks like calm--until it doesn't. 

And three, did I call it, or what?

China is the problem in Asia--not America. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!