Battle Management

Ukraine has a constantly evolving list of who is naughty and who is nice on the battlefield. But is it really useful for NATO? Or for Ukraine in a different type of war?

Ukraine has a system to identify units on the battlefield to strike them quickly:

Ukraine has developed the Delta digital battle management system. With Delta, Ukrainian soldiers can detect a target and pass that data to an attack drone operator, who then destroys the target. The Delta system software dramatically reduces the time between detection and attack. ...

Using an AI/Artificial Intelligence system the Ukrainians can track over 10,000 Russian weapons systems, troop positions and drone operators each week. The map of these contacts is continually updated as the Russians move or are destroyed. At the same time Ukrainian commanders can also see the positions and movements of their own troops. This has dramatically reduced the incidents of friendly fire when Ukrainian soldiers are hit by Ukrainian drones or artillery fire.

That sounds great. NATO forces should be able to operate with that kind of speed. But is it just using recon drone data? Or can it use manned aircraft, satellites, signals intelligence, and even troop reports from the front?

Is the system optimized for--or just reliant on--Ukraine's static war? Could it function in a moving battle? Especially the ability to track friendly forces to avoid friendly fire.

I'm asking because while I want to learn from the Winter War of 2022 I do not want to simply copy the Winter War of 2022's lessons for Ukraine and for Russia from the conditions they face in the war right now. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from here.

Undermining Deterrence

Our freedom undermines the success of our military in demonstrating reasons not to test us in battle. Nothing we can do about that--our freedom is what we defend, after all--but it is a real problem with trying to measure deterrence.

Via Instapundit we have this cold bucket of water on our demonstrated military capabilities against mullah-run Iran:

It’s almost impossible to win a war any more given the disgustingness of today’s information space between American grifters, social media incentives for disinformation-fueled clicks and nefarious foreign influences posing as America First.

Sadly, even when we win on the battlefield our enemies know that we are vulnerable at home to losing. Which is a truth known since the Athenians defeated the Persians at Marathon. Iran--and China--will exploit our weakness.

Again, I would never suggest that we suppress freedom of speech to prevent this problem. That would cause more problems. Even communist scum in America have freedom of speech. I just hope shame may eventually constrain the, ah ... enthusiastic .. expression of the right of dissent. A right that oddly is not met with mass arrests from our Orange Hitler regime.

Nor can I imagine the Iranian fanatics not drawing hope from the Saturday night assassination attempt against the president and whoever else would have gotten in the way (which included an officer who was hit but protected by his body armor) had he not been stopped outside the ballroom. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from AFP.

When All You Have is a Drone

Ukraine and Russia to a lesser extent rely on battlefield drones as their primary tactical hammers. And so see every problem as a nail that must be pounded into the ground no matter how many blows it takes. What if either used another tool?

This is interesting:

An up-armored Leopard 1A5 tank belonging to the Ukrainian army’s 5th Heavy Mechanized Brigade shrugged off 52 first-person-view drones in a daylong bombardment, according to a new report from Ukrainian publication Defense Industry.

Every time I read about one of these mass FPV suicide drone attacks I wonder why an anti-tank gun or anti-tank missile wasn't used. With a tank optimized to stop small drones, wouldn't a direct-fire anti-tank weapon drill through the drone protection? The basic Leopard I is a very thinly armored tank. Even well-armored tanks are weaker away from the frontal arc.

I understand that if the tank is being attacked well behind the front "line" that direct-fire weapons can't be used. But I just get the impression that Ukraine and Russia use the FPV drones because that's what they have and not because it is the best weapon in the combined arms kit for the particular mission. 

Without a static front line with a very wide No-Man's Land, how could armies rely on firing so many drones at a single armored vehicle? Shouldn't direct fire be more in the mix?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the essay. 

The Winter War of 2022 Asks Oligarchs What They Can Do For Putin

Sh*t got real in Russia. Putin is asking for "voluntary" contributions to the war effort from Russia's wealthy class. Once powerful centers of power, these rich people are now just cows to be milked. Is revenue a secondary objective to destroying the potential of oligarchs to fund rival centers of power to oppose Putin?

The war goes on. Ukraine's strategic air campaign seems to be working better than Russia's air campaign. And the battlefield seems to have shifted perceptibly in Ukraine's favor.

And the war must be funded. Ukraine gets money:

The European Council (EC) adopted on April 23 the final piece of legislation underpinning the EU’s 90 billion euro (roughly $105 billion) interest-free loan to Ukraine, which the EC initially approved in December 2025. 

And Ukraine only has to repay it if it gets reparations from Russia. 

Putin, on the other hand, is scrounging for kopecks in the couch cushion. Putin made an offer that Russia's wealthy can't refuse: 

Even as he promised to take all of Ukraine’s Donbas region, he invited the assembled gathering of wealthy businessmen to contribute voluntary aid to the war effort.

The notion of shaking down business in a problematic time for the country originated with the Rosneft director, who proposed the issuance of war bonds as the fundraising process. Since he was not a major shareholder in the company he runs, he will be spared the questionable honor of contributing his own money.

Others, though, responded immediately, offering $1.1 billion. Another sanctioned businessman agreed to contribute when asked.

These men had little choice. It is beyond belief that Russia’s major billionaires would refuse, and that’s closely linked to why these men should no longer be called oligarchs. Decades ago, they could impose their will on Russia, manipulate the legislature, and bend or subvert the law: they were oligarchs in the true sense of the word.

Ask not what Putin can do for the rich men formerly known as oligarchs--ask where the money is.

That’s certainly interesting. Just before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 I read that Putin got financing for military efforts from oligarchs and repaid them with contracts resulting from gains in the military action:

How ... feudal: "[Russia's small wars] are financed by members of Putin’s inner circle. They don’t come directly out of state budgets. ... The oligarchs who funded the annexation of Crimea, for example, received a multibillion-dollar contract to build a bridge connecting that peninsula over the Kerch Strait to Russia." This means of finance requires short and/or small victorious wars. Which the Russians hope their nuclear weapons can enforce after achieving gains.

It was all very feudal, no? And while Putin could have success in short and glorious special military operations, that method can't possibly scale up to sustain a war of attrition.

Yet the oligarchs lack the power to resist Putin's invitation to help. Will Putin squeeze these former supporters until they are impoverished? Will they seek new champions outside of Putin's orbit to survive this war?

Interesting times, indeed, for Russia. Could Putin be trying to destroy these men to prevent them from conspiring against him?

UPDATE (Tuesday): The rise and fall (sometimes out of windows) of Russia's oligarchs. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Image obviously from JFK speech, with modifications.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Creating Good Jihadis

In case you missed it on Substack: The Taiwan Question

In case you missed it on Substack: Looking at Small Drone Dominance Through a Different Lens

In case you missed it on Substack: America Should Remain in NATO

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Lebanon is Trapped in Its Fragility

I'm skeptical that the Lebanese government has the interest or capability to suppress Hezbollah, no matter how much Western help it gets.

Could Lebanon ask for Western help to defeat Hezbollah?

If Lebanon makes such a request, the West must answer.

For the U.S., Europe, and key Arab states — above all for NATO — this would present a clear and consequential choice to help a sovereign government restore control over its own territory. It is precisely the kind of international engagement that would be both justified and effective.

The Lebanese government has had the support of UNIFIL for decades without leveraging that to weaken Hezbollah--which reflects the force's role to shield Hezbollah from Israel. Western states have armed and trained the Lebanese military for decades and it remains incapable of remaining intact if it must fight internal enemies.

Sadly, no level of outside support can help the Lebanese government disband Hezbollah because the government is a fragile coalition of frenemies that includes Hezbollah.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

UPDATE: Forgive the apostrophe in the title. Why that wasn't a screeching alarm until I looked at it later Sunday is beyond me. 

South Korea's Horizon Expands Beyond the DMZ

South Korea has emerged as an industrial and military power perched on the edge of northeast Asia.

Winning: 

For China, South Korea has become a crucial trading partner and dangerous regional naval power. 

As the TDR ouija board foretold:

As long as Chinese power projection didn't reach out much beyond about 50 miles from China's coast, this wasn't an issue. But South Korea is a major trading power with shipbuilding industries thriving on foreign orders. They just launched a large Aegis-equipped destroyer for their growing fleet. 

With a large GDP reliant on trade, South Korea now has the need to have open access to the sea. With a large GDP, South Korea has the means to protect those sea lines of communication. And with China heading out to sea, South Korea has the impetus to build a fleet capable of defending those sea lines of communication. 

China is surrounded by actual enemies or potentially hostile neighbors and I'd never trade places with them. As China builds up, others are reacting. Like any communists, they don't understand that there is no free lunch. Not ever.

Nineteen years later, China faces more opposition to its ambitions. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Plugging Drones into NATO Fleets

Drones are one more weapon to plug into fleet intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities rather than a replacement for the more expensive and capable weapons that rely on the ISR.

Absolutely exploit the quality of cheapness that many air and sea drones provide fleets:

NATO is working to integrate emerging technologies like uncrewed surface vehicles and fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles into crisis planning through its latest major exercises in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.  

My issue has always been that the expensive ISR capabilities that NATO provides make Ukraine's air, surface, and undersea drones effective in the Black Sea. And the drones seen so dreamy because Ukraine has to rely on such cheap weapons rather than expensive Western weapons to fight the Russian navy there.

Cheap drones have mass going for them. But they can't replace the capabilities of the expensive weapons. Now what about using drones for point defense?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.