The Winter War of 2022 Wonders If the Horse Will Sing

Russia is damaging itself in its invasion of Ukraine while Ukraine holds on, hoping for ... what? 

The war goes on. The big news is that Europeans are edging toward a post-conflict partnership with Ukraine, inside Ukraine and with defense production. And Russia launched a ballistic missile with the dual mission of hitting Ukraine's defense industry site and deterring Europeans from sending troops to Ukraine. 

Fighting continues. Russia set a record for losing men in a calendar year--100,000 KIA, if what I read is accurate--and wants everyone to believe that for Russia this is just a normal cost of business. 

Obviously, Ukraine fights hoping not to lose. But trading of space for time to kill more Russian attackers has not broken Russia's will to keep throwing men and materiel at the Ukrainians while insisting Russian civilians cover the financial cost. What does Ukraine hope to achieve by holding on? 

1. Russia's ground forces could break as a whole, on one section of the front, or in one particular type of ground forces (army, airborne, or naval infantry).
2. The economy could break.
3. The leadership class could break.
4. The people of Russia could break.
5. Putin could break--from illness, death, or worries about 1-4.

I don't rule out that Ukraine could be vulnerable to the first problem, at least on the one section of the front aspect. But I don't think the other areas are a vulnerability as long as Ukraine gets significant foreign support for its war effort. I did not think that a much larger Russia necessarily gained a decisive advantage over a smaller but NATO-backed Ukraine.

With the war nearing the four-year mark, Russia has not been able to decisively exploit its population and GDP advantage to defeat Ukraine. And people get tired of war. Even in an authoritarian regime like Russia's. And that shift could be sudden. Polling may show support for Putin, but more and more of the "pro-war" polling will be from people less pro-war than pro-not getting tossed in jail for being less than enthusiastic.

Once Russian people start to realize that a whole lot of people think like they do--if that shift is happening--there could be a rapid cascade of people expressing their opposition to the war. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Trump-Class Battleship

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia Builds Divisions

In case you missed it on Substack: Regime Change: Venezuela

In case you missed it on Substack: Japan Plays the Great Game

Ukraine advises its NATO backers to learn lessons from how Ukraine is using drones to battle Russia. Sure, learn. But learn carefully. 

As a rule, I think troops are a last resort. Practically, the locals just accepted blame: "President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he will back off his plans to use National Guard troops in the Democratic-led cities of Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon." But there are other statutes to use.

Rearming: "German drone maker Quantum Systems and Ukraine-based Frontline Robotics have announced the creation of a new mass-production line for small drones in Germany to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces." 

This highlights the large role Cuba plays in sustaining the regime: "An American military operation in Venezuela killed 32 Cuban officers over the weekend, the Cuban government said Sunday[.]" Cuba needs what Venezuela pays to keep their socialist island afloat. 

Because we are allies: "A proposed $1.8 billion sale of three Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to Denmark was given a State Department green light just ahead of the new year."

Reasonable: "NATO should build a fleet of polar-hardened drones to keep closer tabs on Russian submarines and military maneuvers in the Arctic, says a recent report[.]" Establishing POLARCOM would help, too.

Have China's J-20 stealth fighters approached Taiwanese bases without being detected? Big, if true. Of course, if Taiwan detected them I don't know if I'd admit that. 

Preparing for Absolute Resolve. 

Commander Salamander notes an apparently containerized air defense laser. Well hello Air Defense Queen! 

America is neither a hyper-power nor safe in Fortress Western Hemisphere. Something in between is needed to secure our prosperity, freedom, and physical security. But I think NATO is vital. Don't count on others to defend us. Interests diverge and we don't want to get the sticky end of the stick when they do.

Sure, China's military is corrupt. I've never been dazzled by the shine. But the PLA only has to better than its enemy to win a war. 

Huh: "The CIA has effectively removed the Kremlin’s hoodwink from the president’s eyes." I think Trump has played "good cop" to gain Putin's cooperation. I think a lot of people need their TDS hoodwink removed from their eyes. And I like that guy's military analysis!

Will the mullahs' street thug enforcers be as brutal as they need to be? "A wave of protests sparked by Iran's failing economy has continued for a ninth day, as President Donald Trump renewed his threat of US intervention." Or will protests just peter out if the regime holds its ground with minimal violence?

Fingers crossed. But Latin America is a big region and Absolute Resolve was one small if impressive mission. 

I'm honestly surprised that Ukraine's energy grid has held on so far this winter: "Ukraine’s power grid is struggling under Russia’s blitz[.]"

FFS, China doesn't need an American "example" in Venezuela for justifying military action against Taiwan or defining how China would attack. Why not say China's claim to Taiwan justifies an American claim to Greenland? Why not say Russia's invasion of Ukraine justifies Canada as the 51st U.S. state?

Via Instapundit, Senator Kelly may face administrative punishment reducing his retirement pay for his 'disobeying orders' video. I don't like punishing members of Congress. Perhaps such careers should require temporary separation from service/suspension of retirement pay. Toss in work for defense industry.

If you wonder why Trump has talked about Colombia being a troublesome neighbor. We helped Colombia fight communist rebels for decades. Then when the rebels were on the ropes, set the country on the path to thug rule. FFS. 

Europeans are worried that the Venezuela operation means Greenland (owned by Denmark) is next. Because taking down an enemy illegitimate ruler totally telegraphs hitting a NATO ally that allows us to maintain bases in Greenland. I'd round up the usual suspects for this faux crisis. 

Puerto Rico's role in hosting American military forces for the Venezuela missions highlights its security importance for the region. I'm not opposed to Puerto Rico becoming a state. But it has to be balanced by a pro-Republican state. That is a standard approach to the issue. Maybe California should be divided.

We gave it the good old college try: "The U.S. Coast Guard has suspended a search for possible survivors of U.S. strikes on suspected drug boats in the eastern Pacific about 400 nautical miles from the Mexico/Guatemala border."

CoughChinacough: "The Philippine Navy is exploring ways to monitor subsea cables as part of larger efforts to protect underwater infrastructure from sabotage and spying." 

Telegraphing the next mission for American special forces?

Huh: "Back in the 1950s military researchers seriously explored using free floating balloons as a way to launch nuclear bombs at enemies." Makes me wonder about Chinese spy balloons floating over America.

Source - Stars and Stripes

Via Instapundit, will China use its shiny fleet and base in nearby Djibouti to forcefully deal with pirates that snatched one of their massive global fishing fleet? And Hell, the CIA should be paying pirates around the world to do the same. 

China trains foreign police and internal security forces; and then a discussion of the People's Armed Police. I mentioned "the other guys". 

MLR or rebuilt MAGTF? Is this a trick question? The latter, please. And the latter would allow something like the MLR capabilities if we had used the NECC to provide anti-ship batteries bolstered by Marine security detachments. 

The national security strategy does not weaken America's commitment to Taiwan as a number of analysts have claimed. 

Is North Korea rotating troops in Russia? "What was initially viewed by many as a transactional arrangement has started to increasingly resemble a long-term strategic commitment, reflecting a deeper alignment between the two regimes." There's a silver lining to that alignment. 

How China turned a profit strategically and financially from Western stupidity. 

This is a feature and not a bug of firing air defense weapons while defending an urban target. What goes up must come down. And go BOOM. 

Killings and arrests continue to be the mullah response to continuing Iranian protests. The fall of the mullahs would reduce a lot of problems--and you can add Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the list.

Germany's eco-terrorists get the "freedom fighter" treatment by the German government. Russia is probably subcontracting sabotage to those greens.

The killings will begin: "The Iranian regime appears to have shifted toward a harsher and more coercive crackdown after top Iranian officials began differentiating between 'rioters' and 'protesters' and calling for crackdowns on 'rioters.'" Will the regime bully boys shoot? Will rioters become insurgents?

Russia has a Shahed drone variant carrying an anti-aircraft missile. 

Israel wisely chooses not to pretend its enemies aren't still in the fight: "The Israeli military on Monday began striking what it ​described as Hezbollah and Hamas "targets" in ‌Lebanon after issuing evacuation orders for four villages in ‌the country's east and south." 

Sorry, Canada. But America just isn't that into you. Tip to Instapundit. 

Ukraine met in Paris with leaders of the Coalition of the Willing about post-ceasefire security guarantees, including troops on the ground. My post on a Joint Reassurance Force might be helpful.

If your secrets are kept secret from the enemy by a small cadre of guardians, it will be a secret from your troops fighting that enemy.

Interesting: "While Valdimir Putin insists Russian forces will continue fighting until Ukraine is once more part of Russia, some of his close associates favor peace." 

The U.S. began an operation on the far side of the Atlantic to seize a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker suddenly put under the Russian flag. 

Sure: "Denmark and Greenland are seeking a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio after the Trump administration doubled down on its intention to take over the strategic Arctic island, a Danish territory." Trump is telling China and Russia to keep out. And reminding Denmark not to let them in. 

I don't know why America is rejecting Danish offers to increase American forces on Greenland unless this is negotiating with silence to get Denmark to also keep China and Russia out of resources deals, too. America is not going to wage war on Denmark.

The British government ran into an unexpected obstacle to giving away Diego Garcia. Thank goodness.

That sounds good--and not just for my tiny amount of stock: "The Pentagon has reached an agreement with Lockheed Martin to increase manufacturing of the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor to over 2,000 a year, more than tripling its current production rate." 

Sure: "In the aftermath of the events in Venezuela last weekend, the Pentagon's top leadership has been making the case that a capable navy is a key element in its vision of a powerful, dominant American military force[.]" A secure North America is the foundation of American power projection. 

Any Canadian officials worried America will attack them are delusional. FFS, grow up. 

On top of providing intelligence and selling weapons for Ukraine, attacking and weakening Russian allies Iran and Venezuela, and boarding a newly Russian-flagged Venezuelan sanctioned tanker, will this end the insane "Russian puppet" accusation? "European Leaders Hail US Backstop to Protect Postwar Ukraine[.]"

India: "Analysts say New Delhi’s outreach to countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam marks its growing strategic role in the Indo-Pacific." Edging toward Fight East to counter China.

So the global "rules-based order" protects a dictator who rigs elections, suppresses dissent, impoverishes his country, supports regional and Middle East terrorists, and sends a third of his population into exile? Not exactly a sterling defense of the rules, eh? 

The RUMINT mill for what is on that "empty" Russian-flagged tanker in the North Atlantic with nearby Russian navy assets is officially open for business. We may soon know given America captured it. What is so important that Russia would flag it and send a warship and sub to escort it? Tip to Instapundit.

Okay: "In a complex multi-service, multi-domain scenario — not typically covered in Air Force training — the best of several AI tools generated tactical “courses of action” not only faster than military professionals but also with fewer errors." If enemies gain access, AI will FUBAR at the speed of light. 

The Air Force assumes nobody can attack even its most expensive aircraft. Penny wise and pound foolish. FFS, people. This is not a new problem.

More reasons to protect the seas justify more naval power.

So ... business as usual: "The pedantic fuss-budgetry about the legality of the American action in Venezuela is nonsense." Will it push more of Latin America away from leftism?

Doubts about Syria's "former" jihadi government to stabilize Syria. I worry that Syria will be "stabilized" under a not-at-all-former jihadi government.

Is Bondi Beach a warning sign that all is not well in Australia?

Or just because they are loose-cannon a-holes: "German military document states that Russia is intensifying its covert attacks on key German infrastructure, likely as possible preparation for a wider conflict." But the German military is weak enough to justify worst case worry.

The rate of protests in Iran may have eased off. Don't know what to make of that. Still wonder if Iran faces revolution--or dissolution as the periphery breaks away. Either would cut the Gordian Knot of Iran's wide-ranging mayhem.

The talks the Saudis organized didn't work out: "Saudi-led coalition forces launched a series of airstrikes in Yemen's Dhale province on Wednesday, targeting the home region of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC)." 

I think Mexico is wrong to worry about American military action against its government. But then again, nobody expects the Trumpish Inquisition. 

Espionage and profit: "Anthropic, an American AI/Artificial Intelligence company was recently attacked by Chinese hackers using Anthropic AI technology." The rise of spam from China is noted. I notice a lot more lately making it through my spam filter. Almost all is obvious. And what is not is easily checked.

Predictive analysis on the battlefield. From police work to Iraq and Afghanistan battlefields to Ukraine. And target selection for air attack. Will defensive AI be able to cloud the data in a form of camouflage?

More information on the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, with the assistance of Britain in the North Atlantic. 

Just going to ask how do we afford it and how do we effectively spend it? "President Donald Trump on Wednesday proposed setting U.S. military spending at $1.5 trillion in 2027, citing 'troubled and dangerous times.'" 

Is the M1E3 designed for a "drone-and-cyber-heavy battlefield"? Please note that the AbramsX was never intended to be a prototype. It was a technology demonstrator. 

American naval forces have been partially pulled back from looming over Venezuela.

The Marine Corps base on Guam is nearly ready. It's been a long journey from Okinawa to Guam. 

Have the British designed a missile for "cheap maritime defenses against one-way attack drones"? 

I don't think China will be persuaded: "The Japanese government has urged China to withdraw sweeping export restrictions on dual-use items that block goods for Japan’s defense forces." Japan better go to Plan B, pronto.

I suspect Trump would settle for much more American (and NATO) military capability on Greenland plus a refusal to let Russia or China exploit mineral resources in Greenland or build infrastructure there. If this issue harms NATO, it will be the pro-EU Europeans' fault.

I would not trust Turkey that is following the Islamist path Erdogan has set the country on with the F-35. Unless it is a seriously degraded version.

Holy crap, that governor is moving toward a Fort Sumter moment. May cooler heads prevail. If you love our country only when your party controls the country, you don't love our country. You love your party. This reversion to tribal loyalty is dangerous. I cling to hope that this is an online thing. Via Instapundit.

War in the Arctic?  

Complaints that the 2025 national security strategy didn't explicitly name them enemies are silly: "The 2025 strategy implicitly identifies the PRC and Russia as potential threats." I have my final overview of the document scheduled this week. And despite the verbiage, has fewer fluff content than the last one. 

Just because I would like it to be true doesn't make it true: "Is Iran finally on the brink of revolutionary change?" If protests remain an explosion of frustration and anger with no focus, the mullahs may ride it out.

ISW addresses the feeble Russian effort to build a strategic reserve of new divisions and brigades due to the need to replace losses in the war. And divisions look more like 19th-century infantry divisions than 21st-century mechanized divisions. The nick of too late for my Substack post on the topic.

Iran: "The regime has arrested at least 2,078 citizens and killed at least 24 protesters since December 28, according to a US-based human rights organization focused on Iran on January 6." Are the mullahs importing Iraqi Shias to break heads?

Canada needs to grow the ef up. I was chagrined when "51st state" lasted longer than three days (but amused for three days--Trudeau deserved it), but get over it. 

Why Kazakhstan is Putin's next target. I was way ahead of this idea. But faceplanting in Ukraine for four years may put a crimp in that plan.

Lots of speculation about whether or not this wave of protests in Iran is the one to topple the mullahs. I have no idea and try not to get my hopes up. But hmm (tip to Instapundit). What I can say is that after multiple defeats around the region and B-21s hitting Iran that the mullahs are not the "strong horse" now.

The Senate is leading a Congressional effort to prevent expanded military operations against Venezuela. Which Congress can do. I don't think Trump has any interest in doing that. And funny enough, by limiting the president's freedom of action, Congress will own any problem that escalates. 

Exhibit A in the case that the Navy is too small: "The USS Fitzgerald, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, docked in San Diego Tuesday, after a seven-month deployment that saw it assist in the U.S. 3rd, 5th and 7th Fleet areas of operations." [emphasis added] 

Sounds like a combination consolation prize for China and a shortcut for a nuclear deterrent from Pakistan: "The Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder has emerged as a surprise candidate for Saudi Arabia’s next fighter jet[.]" 

Keep in mind that after centuries of war with Russia, Turkey's defense needs are far lower after Russia lost its border positions next to Turkey, including in Bulgaria during the Cold War: "Turkey will spend the equivalent of $27.34 billion on defense and security in 2026, marking a 30% increase [over 2025.]"

America's Combat Training Centers should absolutely put lots of small drones in training exercises. But as troops learn how to counter drones with equipment, tactics, and procedures, I suspect they will just be one more of many things that can kill you on the battlefield. Experience and training will get them there.

We really don't Red Team our own war plans? And will using AI to generate them inspire completely undeserved confidence in the plans? 

Is America courting a dead crew on the Artemis-2 mission to the Moon? Should the crew be removed to further test the system?  Aside from the lives, mission failure would set back progress a lot. Going to the Moon must be a sustained effort and not a race for a ribbon. Apollo won the last race. What did we get?

Iran: "Protest activity in Iran has expanded dramatically in both rate and magnitude since January 7, including in major cities like Tehran and in northwestern Iran." Is this potentially a revolution or an empire's collapse? Mullahs cut off Internet and phones. Revolutionary Guards mobilize. The U.S. is ... ?

The Iranian mullahs pick a face for their two-minute hate.

Is Moldova in Russia's sights?  Seems like expanding a war Russia isn't winning is a bad idea. How will Russia supply any forces there? Of course, it's minor stupidity compared to bleeding out in Ukraine.

This claim is BS: "Trump’s insistence on America’s right to dominate the Western Hemisphere implies that other great powers have the same rights in their respective spheres of influence, as the US and USSR did during the Cold War." The US and USSR respected nukes--not spheres. Nor would it work today. 

The United Arab Emirates is worried that its young people are being indoctrinated into Islamist thinking in British universities madrassas. WTAF Tip to Instapundit. 

Oh, piffle: "On Greenland, Europe’s Breaking Point With Trump Has Arrived". It's just another faux crisis that the proto-imperial EU fanboys stoke to strip away the prefix. The only plausible invasion scenario is to eject dangerous Chinese or Russian presence and influence. Europe is against that, right?

Britain's madrassa universities are too jihadi-friendly for [ ... checks notes ...] the UAE: "The United Arab Emirates is cutting funding for scholarships to allow students to attend UK Universities because of fear of Islamist radicalization on those campuses." Tip to Instapundit. 

Russia used a conventionally armed IRBM to strike Ukraine.  

Helping Ukraine more (when does Ukraine fire its first Tomahawk?); hitting Russia's allies Venezuela and Iran; and chasing Russian-flagged tankers moving Venezuelan oil are a response to Russia's refusal to succumb to Trump's charm offensive over Ukraine. What other bad luck will befall Russia?

Iran is seemingly getting ready to kill enough protesters to send the survivors home. I suspect America is gathering forces and identifying targets for a good punch in the nose for the Revolutionary Guards. I kind of assume we have at least one SSGN in CENTCOM since there is no carrier there now.

Hmmm: "President Donald Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday night that the United States is “going to start now hitting land” in its fight against drug cartels[.]" With or without Mexico's open cooperation?

Trump wants Raytheon to use defense profits to expand production and not buy back stock. 

Military production expands beyond the prime contractors.

The North Korea Expeditionary Force in Russia's service. Bleeding edge of a new Russian alignment? 

Will the mullahs just ride out the surge of anger? "Iran's leadership played down the nationwide mass demonstrations in an interview with a government spokesman on Saturday after major protests erupted again in the main cities of Tehran and Mashhad on Friday."

China says America is rogue: "The PRC messaging about Venezuela is part of its ongoing effort to portray itself as a leader of the 'Global South' while denigrating US foreign policy." Isn't failing to protect Maduro an obstacle to being that so-called leader?

"Running" Venezuela is getting off to a slow start: "The Venezuelan government has released just nine prisoners following an announcement by the authorities in Caracas that a large number of political prisoners would be freed, the Foro Penal human rights organization said on Friday."

I view a lot of the "news" coming out of Iran as an information operation to convince the pillars of the mullah regime that they are doomed and should get out of Dodge. Fingers crossed. Iran has been run by mullahs my entire adult life. But I saw the fall of the Soviet Union.

Western news can't ignore Iran any more, it seems: "Vast crowds of Iranians have taken to the streets of the capital, Tehran, and several other cities, calling for an end to the Islamic Republic and in many places for the restoration of the monarchy." I'm skeptical of enthusiasm for a monarchy.

Iran may have begun killing people on a serious scale, per an early Saturday report. Is the mullah regime losing control of cities? Tip to Instapundit.

China expects everyone to do their bit: "A Chinese national has been charged in the United States with unlawfully photographing sensitive military infrastructure at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, home to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber fleet." A thousand grains of sand. 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Iran’s military might break with the regime[.]" That would dramatically reduce the target list being drawn up in CENTCOM.

Why aren't people wondering if Starmer is a Chinese agent or if China is blackmailing him? "As Parliament reviews the transfer of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, US access to the Diego Garcia base is no longer assured." You may recall the vital base.

I'm not happy with Pope Leo XIV. But he's quiet as a lamb about the ethnic cleaning of Christians in the Middle East. I keep hoping someone will make my Church great again. Alas, no.

Is this latest resistance to mullah rule in Iran really different? I mean, every one has had unique features. But is this the one that works? Will security forces refuse to shoot at demonstrators? Or switch sides?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine taught China that it is unwise to invade Taiwan. Or is Russia's invasion a learning opportunity for China to fix shortcomings and adapt? 

New doctrine or new desperation? "In an unprecedented declaration, Iran’s Supreme National Defense Council has reserved the right to launch preemptive strikes based on what it calls ‘objective signs of threat.’" American forces in CENTCOM should check ammo and double the guards.

If China wants to contrast its virtuous foreign policy with "hypocritical rogue actor" America's snatching of Maduro, will the CCP declare it will never seek to conquer Taiwan? No? Well thank you for your input.

Sh*t got real: ISW is now doing daily updates on Iran. 

If Iranians overthrow the mullahs, will Shia Islam survive as the dominant religion there? Islam was imposed on Persians by force, after all. In many ways Islam is just an empire. And I've long read that Islam has fewer fans in Iran now.

All this will do is encourage European NATO states to expand their air defense network into Ukraine: "Russian officials are explicitly using the recent Oreshnik strike to deter Western states from deploying troops to post-war Ukraine[.]" 

Come for the ISIL strikes; stay for the Iran strikes? "The U.S. military carried out an additional round of what it called 'large-scale strikes' against multiple ISIS targets in Syria[.]" I wonder if some of the stuff flown in before the strikes is for air defense in the region.

If America strikes Iran over the uprising, the targets depend on whether the mullahs look like they will win. If they are losing, hit the Revolutionary Guard infrastructure and leadership. If the mullahs are winning, hit key oil export facility targets.

Via Instapundit, if this is accurate, the Iranians out in the street are confident they will win. But everyone has a plan until they are punched in the nose--or murdered in the thousands by mullah security forces.

If America can shift Venezuela toward America, will that topple Cuba which relies on Venezuelan oil? And deprive Russia and China of a regional ally that can be a thorn in our side? Or will it just force Russia and China to pay a lot more money to sustain their ally? 

If Iran's uprising is mostly or accompanied by secession movements of non-Persians, will Iran's Kurdish region secede to link up with Iraqi Kurds? Iraq and Turkey will be very unhappy with that. Will the new but rump Iran use force to keep Iran intact? 

The New York Times in 1979: You can totally trust the Ayatollah Khomeini to replace the Shah! I didn't think Erdogan could be a "tame" Islamist. And I don't think Syria's ruler can be tamed. Jihadis gotta murder. Tip to Instapundit.

Forward Defense For Egypt

Egypt needs calm in the Horn of Africa region, both on land and at sea. Egypt earns a lot of money from Suez Canal transit fees. Is it stepping up efforts to do that? Is it getting dangerously complicated there?

Interesting:

Egypt’s diplomatic and military moves in the Horn of Africa over the past two years have drawn notice – especially among those focused on what regional upheavals mean for freedom of navigation and world trade in the Red Sea. Concern has grown as reports point to closer coordination between Somalia’s Al-Shabaab and Yemen’s Houthi movement, heightening the threat to regional security.

A glance at the map shows the natural geographic continuum between the Horn and the belt to its west, where two of Egypt’s core national-security axes lie – the Red Sea and the Nile basin.

I've noted Egypt's interest in the Red Sea when the Houthi threat was apparent. And I've noted Egypt's concerns about Ethiopia's GERD project that is a potential threat to the flow of the Nile River into Egypt. 

Ethiopia's objective--hardly illegitimate--to get access to the sea (via Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia) is a counter-weight to Egypt and its Nile river dam concerns. But Ethiopia's drive for that access doesn't make Eritrea--which won independence from Ethiopia--a friend of Egypt. Which is a spark in dry winds per a RANE Insights email: 

Proxy clashes could quickly escalate, especially as Iran and Egypt deepen support for Eritrea amid Ethiopia's internal instability. Any major flare-up would destabilize the Horn of Africa, disrupt trade routes, and draw greater involvement from external actors.

It's getting crowded in the region. And right in the middle is America's small "Fort Apache" in Djibouti. Next to a French outpost, Japanese outpost, Italian support facility, and a Chinese outpost.

I get a pre-World War I pucker factor about the maneuvering in the region. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

A Temporary Retreat and Not a Defeat

Hezbollah wants to rearm and resume its threat to Israel.

This news from December is not good enough even if narrowly successful eventually: 

The first phase of the plan to confiscate weapons from the Hezbollah terrorist group south of the Litani River will end in a "few days," Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in a statement on Saturday.

Salam's comments came as tensions continued to boil along Lebanon's eastern border, where Israel accuses Hezbollah of ignoring calls for disarmament and carrying out violations of a ceasefire agreed in November 2024.

We'll see how well that goes and what the next phase brings:

A US-backed ceasefire agreed in November 2024 required the disarmament of Lebanon's Iran-aligned Hezbollah, beginning in areas south of the river, the area adjacent to Israel. 

Israel is not happy--as in a dramatically kinetic way--about Hezbollah's persistent drive to rebuild a military threat to Israel. 

As long as Hezbollah has the Bekaa Valley, it can return south of the Litani and restock weapons.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from the initial article.

Target of Opportunity?

Is China waiting to pounce on a defeated Russia that fractures in post-war chaos? 

I've long wanted to defeat Russia without destroying it as a potential counter-weight to China aligned with America. Having played that game with America when Russia was stronger than China, perhaps China sees that risk, too: 

For the United States and Europe, the perspective of the disintegration of Russia looks like a catastrophe: chaos, the threat of uncontrolled use of nuclear weapons, ecological risks for the whole world. But for China this scenario opens a “window of opportunities.” Specifically, there’s a chance at a long-awaited prize — the return of “historic territories,” which in Chinese historiography are interpreted as “lost heritage”: the Far East and Siberia. 

Indeed:

As Russia demonstrates its limits as an ally by self immolating in Ukraine, China may consider whether the time for pouncing to loosen Russia's control of the Pacific Far East has unexpectedly arrived. Recall that Iraq was tempted into hitting its long-time foe Iran while it had a chance after the Iranian Islamist revolution and the rise of the mullahs crippled Iranian military power.

I view China and Russia as frenemies with temporary benefits. Those two Pact of Steal powers won't be shy about turning on the other if opportunity rises. And a crisis in Russia may be a very tempting opportunity for China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image in Substack for my post with the second quote.

Being Nervous About America is Europe's Default Setting

Europeans get nervous when America is too hot or too cold in its determination to fight for Europe. Only when America is just right in conforming its defense attitudes to European current worries are Europeans calmer.

Europeans are frightened that America's foreign policy will hurt them:

America, too, is different nowadays: less influential, more inward-looking, and increasingly different from the America I've reported on for my entire career. Now, very much as in the 1920s and 30s, it wants to concentrate on its own national interests.

Even if President Trump loses a lot of his political strength at next year's mid-term elections, he may have shifted the dial so far towards isolationism that even a more Nato-minded American president in 2028 might find it hard to come to Europe's aid.

That interpretation of American policy is delusional. What is going on has nothing to do with isolationism. America is not in any way doing what America did between the world wars. Is this really isolationism? Or this? Surely, multiple peace initiatives aren't isolationism, right? What we are seeing are different priorities and more narrow levels of involvement abroad.

Europeans are complaining because America isn't doing what they want at the moment. That expectation can change on a dime. As Europeans have always complained, frankly. For their own reasons. 

And the European Union fanboys (and girls) stoke trans-Atlantic division because America defends European freedom of speech. 

Europeans should be grateful that America values their freedoms; and that America and the USSR no longer struggle for Europe with the threat of escalation to a Soviet-American theater nuclear war--in Europe--looming over them.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE:I made the image with Bing.

Damn the "Improvements", Full Speed Ahead

The Navy can't gold plate surface combatant quantity and it should stop trying to do that.

The U.S. has a problem building small surface combatants:

The core issue is whether the U.S. Navy can be prevented from shooting itself in the foot for a third time. America’s ability to get the small surface combatants it needs depends solely on the U.S. Navy’s willingness to pick a design and leave it alone long enough for a shipyard to actually build it. This should not be such a difficult task to accomplish. 

A big problem in achieving that focus is that we weren't designing small surface combatants to get quantity. With the now-truncated (at two) Constellation class frigates, we were trying to built Burke Lite multi-purpose warships to get quality with the mirage of affordability. Even that initial author pines for an efficiently built Burke Lite. 

Pick a number and try again with truly small ships that can be mass produced and plugged into a networked fleet. Can a USCG Legend-class variant work to fill that Navy need? Will this ship deliver the failed promise of the Littoral Combat Ship for flexible payloads?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Illustration of frigate variant from the final link.

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks European Dragons to Slay

Is Putin going to roll the dice in a nice, limited, special hybrid operation against Europeans to rescue his war effort against Ukraine?

The war goes on. Russians walk into the meat grinder every day to "achieve" this: 

The average daily Russian rate of advance in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day — higher than the daily average of 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024. 

ISW notes revised Russian assault tactics and new battlefield interdiction as causes. I assume a major reason for the increase in territory taken is that Ukraine prioritized killing Russian troops while minimizing their own casualties rather than holding territory in 2025. Ukraine's front is manned thinly. There are too few troops to hold the ground but the front is thick with firepower to kill Russians advancing through the front line kill zone. 

That kind of defense is good. But to hold the line you need reserves able to counter-attack and drive back the equally thin attackers. For all the happy talk about the Ukrainian defense belts that Russia will eventually need to defeat, that problem of counter-attacking will apply. Russia will penetrate those lines--at a high cost, of course-- and expand bridgeheads across them. And continue the offensives.

That Russia doesn't advance broadly against Ukraine's defense makes me suspect that Russia doesn't have the manpower superiority on the front that they constantly claim as proof of inevitable victory. I recall that in world War II, once Germany lost the front-wide initiative, Russia was able to mass troops to achieve large superiority over the targeted section of the Axis front by stripping quieter sections. But since Germany wasn't in the position to attack in order to exploit that--or really even identify the thin spots--the Russians got away with it. Is something like that going on now?

While the war rages, Russia is pulling Belarus into a closer orbit, using its territory for Russia's aerial bombardment of Ukraine. Which has uses if Russia wants to threaten NATO.

Will Putin's failure to win his war of conquest against Ukraine lead him to turn the hybrid war against NATO dial to 11 in 2026? 

Since retreating from Kyiv in April 2022, Russia has now failed in four of its five strategic objectives: political subjugation, economic sustainability, regime stability and international standing. Only in territorial control does it hold a pyrrhic advantage. But a declining power is often more dangerous than a rising one. Facing an economic spiral and depleted conventional forces, Vladimir Putin is entering a window of maximum danger. We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one: 2026 will be the year of hybrid escalation. Escalation, which the UK’s Foreign Secretary, in December 2025, on the 100th anniversary of Locarno, boldly stated was already ‘flagrantly visible’.

Already, Russia has been attacking NATO targets in a subliminal war (hybrid war) to reduce NATO support for Ukraine. 

But Russia has lost step 3 of what made their "hybrid warfare" appear effective in 2014: "Russia attacked Crimea. Russia denied attacking. And the West went along with Russia’s fiction." [emphasis added]

Yes, that loss of the final step is not yet complete. But the direction is clear (back to RUSI):

Europe has been slow to build credible hybrid deterrence – a capability it is only now recognising and wanting to address. Its failure to establish clear thresholds for ‘grey-zone’ attacks has created a gap: Incidents of sabotage, cyberattacks and information operations are still largely treated as isolated crimes rather than elements of a well-formed Russian hybrid doctrine. NATO is finally moving – with its top commander and Secretary General outlining shifts in policy – here too Putin’s window for action is closing.

An accelerated Russian subliminal war on Europeans will force that change to treating subliminal attacks as Russian warfare.

That's dangerous if it escalates to open war. Already, Russia's verbal aggression has prompted NATO to rearm. Which makes NATO more capable of fighting Russia if Putin insists.

Consider that Russia's attempt to build a ground strategic reserve has apparently failed:

Russian forces are currently unable to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year.

Russia hoped a big offensive would finally break Ukraine. Ukraine still fights. Now it is NATO's turn as the target? 

Provoking war with NATO would be an amazingly stupid outcome given that Russia's turn to attacking Europeans covertly to intimidate them and pry them away from supporting Ukraine is motivated by weakening Russian ability to defeat Ukraine alone on the battlefield. 

Shades of Hitler's justification for invading the USSR in 1941 as a means to end Britain's reason for remaining in the war, eh? 

Does Putin get the Mussolini treatment before a Russia-NATO conventional war begins? Or after?

Have a super sparkly new year.

UPDATE (Monday): To be fair, Putin's vodka-addled pet nuke monkey sees a lot of things that aren't there:

Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev said he could envisage abduction operations against other world leaders similar to the US action in Venezuela, naming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz among them. 

UPDATE (Thursday): If Russia's aggression was meant to scare the Europeans, it didn't work:

Ukraine’s allies said they made major progress Tuesday toward agreeing on how to defend the country if a peace deal is struck with Russia, saying they were ready to provide international guarantees to deter Moscow from attacking its neighbor again. 

America is involved, too. But the level is unclear. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.