Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Dysfunction of America’s Defense Industry

In case you missed it on Substack: Calculating a PLA Defeat on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Waiting For Egypt?

In case you missed it on Substack: Killing the Rain is Hard

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Japan Seeks Expensive Security Solutions

Japan is demonstrating that its pacifistic constitution is not a suicide pact.

Japan is arming up: 

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has requested a record 8.9 trillion yen – or $55.6 billion – for its Fiscal Year 2027 Defense Budget to prioritize artificial intelligence, unmanned capabilities and long-range strike capabilities, according to budgetary documents released Monday.  

I'm not sure what that illustration depicts, but the red ships and subs are clearly losing. I bet it is blinding China.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

Taiwan's "Hedgehog" Defense?

I am happy the Taiwanese are buying some cheap weapons to fight China's expensive invasion weapons. And even happier that these will complement rather than replace conventional weapons.

Has Taiwan finally adopted a hedgehog defense?

Belated parliamentary funding for Taiwan’s drone program isn’t likely to satisfy President Lai Ching-te. Nonetheless, pressure from Washington has evidently helped achieve spending authorisation for this key part of the government’s effort to adopt a hedgehog defence strategy.

Great, a new term. Forget "porcupine". Forget "Hezbollah". 

And forget the concept. I really believe people who use this are simply twisting the concepts of combined arms and joint warfare to create a class of cheap silver bullet wonder weapons. 

Given that this drone program is just a portion of Taiwan's defenses--which include tanks to drive the enemy into the sea and warships to fight blockades--Taiwan is simple expanding their total arsenal and not relying on the latest silver bullet wonder weapon to attract our attention and raise our hopes for easy defense means.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Is it a Bridge or a Wall?

A new road bridge linking North Korea and Russia over the Tumen River is nearly completed. China was unavailable for comment.

Well, it's nearly completed:

The first-ever road bridge linking North Korea and Russia across the Tumen River appears close to completion, according to satellite imagery reviewed by Defense News, though construction on the Russian side lags behind Pyongyang’s finished part. It is a visible manifestation of the two countries’ tightening relationships, driven by Pyongyang’s military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. 

And even if the bridge is never fully completed, it may be a wall right now, blocking Chinese access down the Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, as China wanted. Unless the road bridge has very high water clearance or is a draw bridge. And one picture I saw sure doesn't indicate that.

A new era in military cooperation begins! Against Ukraine. For now. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

No Doubt it Sucks to Be Russia

A three-day capture of Kyiv followed by a few weeks of mopping up the rest of Ukraine would have made European aid to Ukraine irrelevant. In a long war, it matters.

Russia’s ability to pound Ukraine into submission has a flaw: 

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics. ...

This lopsided geopolitical setup offsets, to a significant degree, Russia’s advantage in firepower. 

Early in the war, I highlighted the economic and military support the West provided Ukraine despite Russia's 9:1 GDP edge:

Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services. 

As for Russian whining about Western logistics sanctuaries? Nobody is bombing Belarus, North Korea, or China. Sure, Iran is being bombed but that's not mainly related to Russia's war effort. And let's talk about how the North Koreans and North Vietnamese were armed when we fought them, okay? 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Blackhawk Company Learned Without Bleeding

An American company commander widely reported as getting his clock cleaned by Ukrainian drone operators in an exercise gives his perspective.

This exercise was not intended to replicate our coming countermeasures, it was a lesson about what happens without them:

We did not have counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (cUAS) capability that we would have wanted. Our brigade was not a Transformation-in-Contact (TiC) unit that places new, sometimes untested weapons and tech directly in the hands of soldiers.

Perhaps the Army and industry partners have already developed a secret “win button” device for drone warfare. But if they did, we didn’t have it.

But fighting a tilted, uphill battle against seasoned combat veterans is exactly what made the experience so valuable. We did not complain; we adapted, accepting that the sky — in perpetuity, not just sporadically — was now part of the battlefield.

The company learned how to operate without active countermeasures to cope with the threat. Skills that will be necessary even when the company can fight back.

Note too that the enemy needed ground troops to find and target them after the company exploited terrain as cover from aerial recon. And when on offense during the exercise with Ukrainian drone help from the Nemesis unit, the exercise exposed a weakness of drones:

When we maneuvered and made the hunters of Nemesis feel like the hunted, the skies cleared up. 

Yes, secure positions behind static lines amplify drone effectiveness. 

I commented on the panty-flinging by drone enthusiasts for a different exercise with similar results. 

I also heard that the American exercise was supposed to help train Ukrainian drone operators. Which would help Ukraine fight more effectively if Russia resumes mechanized warfare.

Learning in realistic exercises is better than learning in deadly combat. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Goes Big or Goes Home?

 

Will Russia finally grind down Ukraine’s civilian morale from the air and pound their way through Ukraine’s ground forces with a bigger sledgehammer after mobilizing reservists and throwing in accumulated equipment? Or will Russia face its own 1944 Battle of the Bulge offensive failure that expends its last reserves? Or a 1943 Kursk offensive failure that leaves Russia without significant reserves to counter-attack? Or even a Karbala V bloody failure that collapses Russian troop morale for holding occupied territory?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Bradley Plus UGV Drone Swarms

In case you missed it on Substack: Only Putin Can Go to Washington, D.C.

In case you missed it on Substack: The Navy Must Evolve for Sea Control

In case you missed it on Substack: The War on Islamist Terror at 25

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

NATO Cooperation in the Arctic

Does NATO do enough in the Arctic region to contain Russia and its Chinese partner?

Is this sufficient to increase NATO capabilities in the Arctic?

On the military side of NATO, the establishment in 2019 of NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk (JFC NF) is important because it brings most of NATO’s Arctic activity under one command. The command is also staffed with many officers from the Arctic states, thus serving as an integration hub for the states in question, as well as other allies who operate in the Arctic, such as the UK and the Netherlands. JFC NF is also responsible for NATO’s Regional Plan Northwest, which covers the north Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic and the Nordic region. Allied operations and exercises in the High North are therefore often related to this plan in one way or the other.

To me, that's close but no cigar. Yes, the Arctic is included in JFC NF. But it is not exclusively focused on mastering that region and its unique challenges. Is America's Nordic Bridge initiative carved out of NORTHCOM and bringing other entities in to better coordinate Arctic missions enough?

I'd like to see the Joint Expeditionary Command (JEF) shed members on the eastern front, add Canada, and be the element that focuses its NATO members on Arctic operations.

And if America sets up POLARCOM, America could better contribute to and coordinate with NATO's JEF members in the Arctic to face China-supported Russia.

Then, JFC NF could narrow its scope to the North Atlantic and sub-Arctic Nordic region.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from NOAA.

Twenty-five Years After Realizing We Were at War With Jihadis

It has been 25 years since jihadis forced Americans to realize jihadis were waging war on us.

 

I address the day we could no longer deny we were at war and the quarter century since then here:

So yes, the war goes on. Some complain it is an “endless war.” As if it is our fault our jihadi enemies are persistent in their belief they must kill us and our civilization. If the war is endless it is not our fault. Which is all the more reason we must fight the war by killing our enemies and rewarding the elements of Islam that would rather reform Islam, and win the very long war[.]

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo by Julien Maculan on Unsplash  

Will Canada Defend its North?

While Canada has fixated on demonizing America over trade issues, Russia looms over Canada's ill-defended Arctic border.

Sure, Lake Ontario America was humorous. But the Canadians have lost their minds. This is not a good time to joke around. We need to speak softly and refrain from making sudden moves. But this is an excellent point about Canada facing an actual threat:

In Canada, with the second-longest Arctic coastline, the “Our North, Strong and Free” declaration has to be underpinned by effective policy. 

I've long wanted Canada to bolster its Arctic defenses:

Canada has my enduring thanks for fighting and dying at our side in Afghanistan. It was a rare NATO ally who did that even under Article V. So if Canada revives defense spending primarily to safeguard the northern Pacific and Atlantic as well as the Arctic? Great!  

It seems that Canada is theoretically in agreement, We could complement that effort by establishing POLARCOM. 

Maybe we could motivate the Canadians by sailing an Amphibious Readiness Group around Hudson America Bay.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Who Controls the Hormuz Strait?

Iran loudly claims to control the Hormuz Strait. Our media largely parrots that claim. In fact, Iran has no control and limited ability to interdict traffic. America has some control and the ability to interdict traffic.

I've been saying for quite some time in Weekend Data Dumps that official statistics of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz don't reflect the reality of American forces shepherding ships through Omani territorial waters with their beacons turned off ("dark transits"), making them invisible to those who count. And to the Iranians who want to shoot at them, of course.

Well:

An average of 8.6 million barrels of oil a day have been flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — more than previously reported, maritime analyst firm Kpler confirmed in a new update that matches estimates from the Trump administration.

Even I was unwilling to say it was that much. Just that some was getting out. And combined with increased pipeline and truck transport plus reduced demand, enough was getting out to get by. 

At some point when oil is delivered the statistics can be modified to show that a tanker had to transit the strait X days earlier.

Mind you, the pre-war  level was 21.6 million barrels per day. But in a couple years, pipelines might allow all the Arab states to fully bypass Hormuz.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great White North and a Let's Do It Foreign Policy

I hope that Canada and the United States sort out our trade differences before they seriously affect our defense relationship. We need each other militarily and economically, but leaders can do stupid things. Lord knows I've seen how Canadians since 2016 have whipped themselves into anti-U.S. hysteria. 

This sums it up:

In broad terms, Canada’s relationship with the U.S. has two dimensions: economic and military. The U.S. is attempting to adjust the former but not the latter. The Trump administration is increasing economic pressure on Canada through tariffs, as it has with the rest of the world, which has naturally introduced tension into the relationship. At this point, the tension is reaching a point that it may affect the military dimension as well.

America has real trade grievances with Canada over how Canada tariffs American exports and allows other nations to bypass our tariffs. But the military dimensions of our relationship should keep the trade disputes from getting out of hand. 

We assume Canada knows we need each other so we can push hard. But I don't assume Canada will not do something really futile and stupid just to spite America--and damn the cost to Canada (which will be blamed on America, of course). I mean, by doing something more harmful than stoking Canadian anger at America to suppress secessionist movements in Quebec and Alberta.

Let's remember we are friends and allies, shall we?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

The Winter War of 2022 Misses a Chance

 

It is false compassion to reduce the rate of your losses by refusing to energetically conduct a counteroffensive and suffer a higher casualty rate if you forfeit a chance to end a war quickly only to condemn your troops and civilians to a lower rate of casualties for years on end. Did Ukraine miss its chance to exploit Russian weakness in the first half of 2026?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: American Western Hemisphere Foreign Policy

In case you missed it on Substack: "Blood and Guts" Putin Seeks Glory

In case you missed it on Substack: Make the Gulf Arabian Again

In case you missed it on Substack: Competing Distractions in the Great PACOM Game

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Porcupines are Never Enough

So-called "porcupine" weapons will not save Taiwan when the PLA lands. And I'm not confident the Taiwanese people could sustain armed resistance in the face of occupation.

I'm not against Taiwan preparing to resist occupation, but it's probably futile. And I'm fully on board the critique of porcupine fixations:

If and when the People's Liberation Army breaches the outer defensive ring, establishes coastal lodgments, and imposes a total blockade, Taiwan's standoff systems will be rapidly expended, neutralized by precision bombardment, or starved of fuel and parts. Without an organized, decentralized civil-military underground ready to execute resistance operations, the island's defense will collapse into rapid paralysis. True deterrence by denial requires more than anti-ship missiles. It demands an island-wide resistance architecture grounded in Unconventional Warfare doctrine. 

Don't rely on a porcupine defense. It will kill you. 

I think Taiwan is divided enough politically over China that resistance could be brutally suppressed by China using cooperative locals who might see PLA occupation as an opportunity. And if the PLA is running a counter-insurgency campaign, how long will resistance last when they realize Force Design Marines aren't going to liberate them?

Not that resistance training and organization wouldn't be helpful. It would raise spirits during an invasion and bolster the will to win the conventional campaign. But the priority should be driving the PLA into the sea.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image--which is awesome--from the article. 

Cheap Drone Interceptors

Volume of attackers requires volume of defense.

 

Italy is looking at a cheaper anti-drone weapon:

The Italian Air Force is mulling the purchase of U.S. technology that turns cheap unguided missiles into precision weapons, offering a low-cost option for taking out drones instead of using pricy air-to-air missiles.

Those rockets are cheap and this allows more rockets to be carried than traditional air-to-air missiles. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from article. 

China's New Type 004 Super Carrier

China is building a new super carrier, this time with nuclear power. I strongly suspect these carriers are built for global power projection during peacetime rather than for war with America. Still, capabilities evolve slowly. Intent can change overnight.

China is building a new carrier design:

A new Chinese aircraft carrier, commonly referred to as the Type 004, is continuing to take shape, notably now featuring a more complete bow. This is set to be China’s fourth carrier, and there is strong evidence it will be its first nuclear-powered type, bringing an even more significant boost to the country’s naval power projection capabilities.

The ship will likely have an air wing with expanded capabilities that the Chinese are working on.

Given the string of American and allies anti-access/area denial weapons being deployed along the First Island Chain, China's surface ships will be under threat when in home port and trying to sail into battle.

So I have to ask if China's investment in carriers is for prestige and peacetime missions to defend its global economic interests:

Years ago I said I almost felt sorry for China pursuing aircraft carriers given carrier vulnerability. I thought their first weak carriers would serve best as a distraction for the U.S. Navy as the PLA conquered Taiwan.

Since China has been accelerating its global trade network, I've wondered if China's aircraft carriers were really meant for peacetime power projection rather than sea control in a contest with the United States and its allies.

Heck, the fleet might be an expensive bauble to bolster the image of the Chinese Communist Party's power.

I still wonder about all of that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Drones Can Be Used For Tasks Other Systems Once Did

I'm not saying new ways of doing things isn't important. But it does mean drones aren't doing unprecedented things. 

Interesting use of UAVs:

Drones have come to define the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, with both sides fielding diverse and increasingly advanced systems. However, the true advantage in this domain does not come from technology alone, but from developing new employment methods that provide a tactical edge to their respective warfighters. Recent Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian forces have adopted a new drone tactic to help control roads leading into contested urban areas. The tactic involves landing drones near key routes to monitor the acoustic signatures of passing vehicles. When a potential military vehicle is detected, the operator can use the drone itself to strike the vehicle or engage it with artillery or another strike drone. 

Drones basically do old missions with new means.

Which means the drones can be stopped, notwithstanding their newness, with updated countermeasures.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article. 

China's Grip On Western Hemisphere Transportation

The campaign to reduce Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere will need to be waged a long time.

China fights back against losing control: 

Panama is one battle in a much larger contest over who will shape the Western Hemisphere. For more than two decades, China expanded its reach by financing, building, and operating ports, railways, electrical grids, telecommunications systems, logistics hubs, and energy projects across Latin America. Those investments created influence that extends well beyond commerce.

But Washington has begun pushing back. The dispute in Panama offers an early look at how difficult it may be to reverse two decades of Chinese infrastructure expansion.

It would have been better to have started pushing back decades ago. Worse to have delayed decades more.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.