Home Alone III: Lost in Toronto

Im back from vacation in Toronto . It was good to get away from work and responsibilities for a few days. Before I even went back to work I could actually feel myself delaxing. And then I found myself in an uncomfortable situation at work that had erupted while I was out of the country. A little problem with some data I had relied on let me just say that Im glad that few people click on hyperlinks. I didnt get in trouble but I take pride in my work and so even a mistake that wasnt my fault stings.

Ah well! I had a blast while away and thats that. And I like my job. I can only imagine how it must be to return to a job you hate.

The Train Up

The trip started the same way last year's did. I drove my Ex, Mister, and Lamb to Windsor and we caught a train to Toronto . From there I'd get them on the train north to visit their grandfather on his island. Then I'd be on my own in Toronto to relax among concrete and lights instead of water and isolation. I'm not much for roughing it. Heck, even in the Guard, our platoon had such good movies that troops in their off hours came to our GP medium instead of the morale tent!

This year was different. My Ex didnt like last year's rushed schedule. She booked her train tickets to provide a day in Toronto. I can't say I was thrilled with that much togetherness. I get along well with my ex wife but we are exes, after all. But I resolved to make the best of it. We figured I could take Mister to the Hockey Hall of Fame while Lamb and my Ex went shopping. I looked up some other stuff, too, since I remembered from my lake tour last year that there were rides on one of the Toronto islands. I looked it up and it looked pretty cool. We parental units decided that would be the main afternoon event. I ordered Canadian money from my bank a week ahead of time. I even stopped my mail. Man, I was well prepared!

But my bank failed me. Detroit sent Euros up to my branch in Lansing instead of Canadian dollars (life is weird when your main branch bank is seventy miles from home). I almost took the Euros. Hey, I'm going to have to go to a bank in Toronto anyway, right? Why not play the Latvian exile or something (is Latvia even in the Euro zone?)? In the end I just kept my green backs.

Canadian Customs was no match for me, natch. What I didnt know is that my Ex was smuggling a couple cans of Miller beer in her luggage. So I in fact lied to Canadian officials. What evils could I have faced had we been searched? Really, I was more worried about the laughter that would ensue from Canadian officials who would think I was involved with smuggling cheap American beer into Canada ! What nutcase would do that rather than buy Canadian beer in Canada! People go to Canada to bring beer back here--not the other way around. But I was spared that indignity. Next year I secretly search my Ex's bags and quietly remove the beer. I'll replace them with Clamato cans. Heh.

In our search for a mall to buy lunches for the kids, I managed to locate a bank in the strip mall and exchange my money before we got on the train. And I even managed to find my way back to the station. And given my sense of direction, it was no small feat to remember how to get back to the main road, I tell you. With a map I can't fail to land navigate properly. Without a map, I get turned around all too easily getting off of elevators, I'm afraid.

The train ride to Toronto went well. We brought lunches to avoid the thin gruel they sell on the trip. Lamb was not interested in her fare, so I hauled out my emergency peanut butter and jelly and that went over really well with her. And I brought books for Mister and Lamb, as well as little notebooks and crayons. The notebooks were a surprising hit as Mister and his mom played a circles game and Lamb and I played tic tac toe. Later, when Lamb fell asleep, Mister taught me the circles game and he beat me every time. He's a bright kid! Mister also drew cartoon monsters that he planned to market and thus make him rich. I remember the burning desire to get rich when I was young. I even bought the book Think and Grow Rich. Man, did none of that stuff take hold.

Arriving in Toronto and the Kid Portion of My Tour

Once at Toronto , I led us to our hotel near the lake. I finally realize why getting hotels was a little dicey. The annual Caribana Festival was that weekend, celebrating Caribbean music and food. Ugh to both. I don't care for jerked music or whatever it is. The festival was much bigger than I'd thought it would be. We had nice rooms with Mister and I staying in one room and the lasses keeping the other room. We ate dinner in the really expensive hotel restaurant. I will say the wait staff was quite attentive. As I always say, you can only spend so much on food before you are just paying to have guys standing around in tuxedos. After eating, went swimming at the large pool. It was really cool since they had a bin of swimming accessories for kids. Mister grabbed float noodles and I put Lamb in a swim vest so she could float around on her own. Mister and I horsed around and then Lamb enjoyed jumping in the pool in her vest with me to catch her after she hit the water. It was a late bed time and in the morning we walked across the street to a little store with tables outside for breakfast. Lamb enjoyed watching the pigeons eat bread scraps from our breakfast.

We walked up to the downtown areas to find a bank to exchange money for my Ex. Once we did that, Mister and I headed for the hall of fame and Ex and Lamb went to find a market. We would meet in a little over two hours at the Sheraton to get lunch.

The Hall of Fame was great. Mister loved the time line of the NHL:

We could have spent five hours just in the theater watching the movies of hockey history! Mister made an effort to do play-by-play for a hockey game and I emailed it home so we could watch it after the vacation. And we had to hit the gift shop which ate into our limited time. But after the timeline success, I wanted to get Mister a hockey book. We found a good one with history and rules and techniques, which was a big hit. Plus Red Wings pens for Mister and Lamb and a little bracelet for Lamb.

Then we raced off through the underground PATH to make our rendezvous with mom and sister. I remembered the path logic and one of the tricky spots where you have to go west or east with no apparent northern option (blue is north, by the way). Mister loved the PATH. I dont know why. It's neat, but just an underground mall and I could have gotten us to our destination faster above ground. But we went underground.

Lamb and her mom ate while we were at hockey heaven. But Mister and I still needed to eat so we grabbed food in the underground--the only time I ate in the dungeon. In past years I went there, but this year I wanted to avoid the underground. But we needed to eat fast to get to the island park.

We made it to the ferry dock and had a nice ride across to the island. As it turned out, the park has lots of stuff to do including beaches and a clothing optional beach. We went to the park. It had tons of rides and not just the half dozen mentioned on their web site. It was absolutely fantastic. We bought the unlimited ride passes and hit all kinds of rides. A log ride, a train, cars and fire engines, bumper cars, a merry go round, boat rides, a small roller coaster, and others. On the bumper cars there were only a few of us and I didn't have the heart to ram the other kids so I just evaded them--striking a glancing blow against one boy only after he rammed me! Hey, I can retaliate, can't I? My favorite was the log ride. Mister liked that one, too. Lamb liked the carousel.

This is Mister on the park train.

And Lamb and her mom on the swan boat.

One really amazing sight was a family of hippies. I don't even see this in Ann Arbor anymore so this was quite a shock. When I say family of hippies, I'm quite serious. There was a dad, a mom, a boy, and a girl. They all wore bright tie-dyed t-shirts. I only really remember the dad. He had wire-rimmed glasses and a graying long perm with a head band to pull it all in. It was amazing. The kids were still young enough to just go along but I wonder what they will think of this in a few years. Surely they notice that tie-dye is not exactly common. Or maybe theres a colony of hippies left over from the Vietnam War. Heck, maybe they were Canadian hippies. But I digress.

We went late into the night, eating dinner at the island on the patio overlooking the Toronto skyline in the fading light. I love city lights! (This is in the day from last year):

This beats this (as nice as it is; from two years ago) any day:

A late night ferry ride home took us to shore after a detour to the airport island and once on the mainland it was only a short walk to the hotel. We went to bed to be ready for an early morning walk to the train station.

In the morning it was a rush of showers, a quick trip to a grocery store, and a fast walk to the station. I got the kids and their mom to the station in time for boarding and they were off on an all-day trip. It was tough to watch the kids leave but I knew they'd have fun. And sadly, unlike last year, I could not accompany them to the train to help them get bags and children on the train--thats what catching a bunch of Toronto jihadis recently will do to us on an ordinary level. And I knew I wouldn't care for the island despite my invitation--I'd been there before Mister was born and twice I'd taken Mister up there myself.

On My Own. Day One

I grabbed breakfast, returned to the hotel, stole the soaps, and packed. I checked out for both rooms and headed out before the parade started!

I made it up to my new hotel for the rest of my stay but the room was not ready yet. I checked my bags and went out to explore. I walked for two hours, east on King and then north to Queen and then north up Church. One thing that struck me on this trip was that Canadians are not polite. Grim-faced clerks would really smile broadly when I smiled at them and said please and thank you. It was like they never heard politeness. Anyway, my pre-trip research said this was a club zone but it was a little off, if you know what I mean. Lots of men in pairs. Not that theres anything wrong with that, of course--you know the Seinfeld routine. But I decided that this was not the place for bar hopping as a solitary man. So my recon already scrubbed my plan for the night.

I headed down Bloor where I experienced the first of as number of requests for directions. I didn't know I looked so Canadian. Who knew? I blew this first one. Had I been asked an hour later I could have answered, but I was still getting my bearings. All the rest I answered successfully on the trip.

Then I went down Yonge. This is the main drag and has lots of weirdness to attract tourists. I wanted to avoid this area if at all possible. Not that Im morally opposed to all-nude girls dancing. Don't get me wrong. But that sure sounded expensive and I wanted to avoid the main tourist area. Funny enough as it turns out, my niece and her boyfriend hopped down Yonge that night. I had no idea they went to Toronto the same weekend.

Rolling west down Queen into the entertainment district, I checked out some areas Id meant to visit last year. Those plans were cancelled when I was hit with Bells Palsy and went to the emergency room, thinking I might have just had a stroke. Actually, I didnt think I'd had a stroke, and judged I'd severed a nerve somehow. Being a history major, I was really interested in getting professional help just in case my diagnosis was wrong. Boy was I right, as it turned out. A nerve was cut. But I worried about the worst until informed it wasn't. The emergency room people were great but left me with the impression that I probably wouldn't get better from where I was. My doctor at home clued me in and I recovered fully in a couple months. Anyway, by coincidence my hotel via Priceline was a block from the hospital I went to last year!

So I explored. And by chance found the place I'd spend Saturday night atan Irish pub off of King Street . I needed lunch and wanted to start drinking too, so the outside table seemed a great place to hang out until I was sure my room was ready. I stood at the corner debating and when I saw the stunning waitress that ended the debate real fast. Wow. The short skirt didn't hurt her looks one bit at all.

I sat down and unpacked my book and looked up at her when she approached me. I took off my sun glasses to say hi and she actually kind of lost her composure trying to say hello. She smiled a lot at me. It was dead, so we chatted and she told me I had great eyes. I've gotten this reaction before--including once when I really needed to hear something like that when my marriage was breaking down. A young, blonde, very earnest and cute activist tried to explain the perils to our environment on my porch and then she just stopped in mid-speech to say, "Your eyes are so blue!" All within ear shot of my then-wife. Heh. To avoid appearing boastful, I freely admit that if my eyes are my only good part, thats a pretty small percentage of my body mass

Anyway. This was my kind of sightseeing. She kept looking over her shoulder when shed walk away after checking on me. And after I asked her about the tattoo on her waist in back, she explained and then fairly skipped away on her toes, grinning. I'm usually pretty dense about these things, but she seemed to be attracted to me. Dang. She was maybe half my age so I guess my ego got a needed boost over this.

So I ate, drank, and flirted shamelessly. I asked about the band that was on the board to play that night and wondered if this was a kind of bar shed go to on a Saturday night. She said yes and I replied that I knew where I was going that night. After a couple hours of eating, drinking, reading, and chatting, I headed for my hotel to check in.

My hotel room was amazing. It was half again as long as my condos main room! It was narrower but dang it was nice! I noticed later that downtown Toronto condos of 600 square feet seemed to go for $220,000 ( US )! My hotel room lacked only a kitchen to match that.

I double checked Yonge Street for any good attractions, then changed and walked to the Irish pub to check out the band and night life. The Irish pub that night was pretty cool. A good band played songs I knew--some recent and some older--to what appeared to be a local twenty-something crowd. And true to her word, the bar was a place my waitress from earlier would go to on a Saturday night. So that was good. The whole experience took me back to college days of live bands at bars. That would explain my three years as a sophomore, of course.

I didn't quite close the bar, but it was a grand time. I will return to this pub next year.

Funny enough, at that very time, my niece was in Toronto too, rolling up Yonge Street . I didnt find this out until after I got home.

Day Two

With too little sleep, I headed out the door the next day to check out Old Fort York. It turned out to be about a 45 minute walk and I stopped at a semi-dive I found on the way for breakfast. The fort is fairly small but had good displays and excellent tours. One of the guides had a major in American history and he really knew his fortifications. I quizzed him at length on various aspects of the design and he seemed to appreciate being able to go off on details of what he knew. A lot of their tourists are kids on birthday parties on the site much like any kid place will offer. I went on all the tours and explored all the ramparts. The demonstrations were good, too, especially the musket and cannon firings. Here are the infantry demonstrating skirmish tactics:

I wrapped up after about four hours and headed for home, stopping for an iced cappuccino and donut from a Tim Horton. Looking for lunch a little while later, I tried the Irish pub but it was closed! Drat. I marched down to Front and Church to see what was there and found a lot of places to choose from. I picked C'est What? and had a couple beers with dinner while I read my book. It was pretty dead at the time but this had promise for a future visit. I went back to my hotel a little melancholy, actually. I sat down and watched a couple Friends reruns on TV and contemplated that as much as I had enjoyed the single bar scene, I was not in fact in college anymore. I don't feel old. I don't think I look particularly old. But I am not a kid anymore. Where did the time go? It really seemed like yesterday that I was listening to some of the same music as the night before in Ann Arbor bars with college friends. Well, actually I still do that. I mean with my college friends who were once college-aged, too. But back then I was counting on other people buying me beer. And here I am, with a mortgage and a son who is shooting up in height every day, some published articles under my belt, a job requiring a suit and tie that I've been at for fifteen years, and I do not get carded. My cat, who I'd gotten when I was about 22, died three years ago. He was almost like a relic of my single youth. If he could grow to a ripe old age and die, what happened to my youth?

So there I was, on the edge of just feeling sorry for myself and withdrawing from the world to watch sitcoms in an expensive hotel room in another city. Comes from being part Irish, I think. And drinking. Which may relate to the first reason, actually!

But instead of surrendering, I roused myself and changed clothes and headed back to the entertainment district. This time I'd do a proper pub crawl. I started with the Rex Hotel , which has jazz and blues bands, to watch the Shannon Butcher Trio. Her voice was absolutely beautiful. But after her set and a couple pints, I had to move on. The heat without air conditioning was just miserable. Perhaps for the Blues that was a deliberate decision to heighten the melancholy ambience. But what really got me to leave was the sight of the Vin Diesel clone complete with tight t-shirt, rippling muscles, and a shaved head bringing in a small case. He was apparently in the next band. Or he had a compact automatic weapon in that case. Could go either way, I thought. Best not to take chances. Me being unarmed and all. Sure, I knew how to get to the emergency room in Toronto but I was hoping to cut my streak at one. Before coming to Toronto I'd planned on doing some time here. But it was clearly time to go.

So I booked west on Queen Street. I was looking for the Rivoli which I had read had some comedy act that night. This would have been a planned stop, too. When I got there it was big and crowded and for some reason not appealing. So instead I walked down a random side street leading south to King. Before I got there I found one of several versions of an F and F bar. Strangely, I saw several bars that had compound names using Fs for each word. Fox and Farthing. Friar and Flagon. I forget which one I found and since I paid cash I won't have a credit card to remind me. But it did have a Sunday-night stand-up comedy gig scheduled so I decided on this place.

I sat at the bar away from the stage but near what appeared to be a gaggle of aspiring comics preparing to go on for 6 minutes. Most weren't very good--even with beer to help. On the other hand, only one guy made a crack about President Bush and even that didn't get a laugh. But some had a joke or two that had promise if they worked on the delivery, wording, or timing. And one young guy was pretty good during his 6 or 7 minutes on stage. Pretty rough around the edges but actually funny. I had to congratulate him when he came off the stage. With my eyes still a little wet from laughing so hard, I told him, "Dude, you were really funny." He smiled and thanked me. No better compliment for an aspiring comic, eh?

What was most interesting was listening to the comics discuss their trade. They were mostly young guys. One was a college dropout who did so to have time to work on his act. Why that couldn't be done after classes I don't know, but here he was. They appeared at different places to do their acts and it seemed like they spent considerable time working on their jokes. They approached jokes like objects they tried to craft in molds of social commentary or theoretical frameworks based on emotions versus the physical or men versus women. They used their experiences as being unemployed or old or moms or suburban youth to try and pull humor from their own lives. They were very serious about comedy.

With the comedy show over, I wanted one more stop before heading to the hotel. I wanted to get in one last bar since I didn't know what the Monday holiday even was and what impact it would have on places to go. Sadly again, my new favorite Toronto Irish pub was closed. And on a Sunday of a three-day weekend! This night was pretty hopping so I was surprised at the closing.

Oh well, it was getting close to 1:00 am so I called it a night without stopping at another bar on the way back. I had a smashing good time again and the pointless angst that I had flirted with was gone. I felt good about disposing of that. It angered me that I had almost succumbed to whiny self-pity. I always say I'm a lucky man and I believe it. Life is good. And there I was almost ready to trade in Gen X upbringing for Baby Boomer self indulgence (Erm, so what is this blog post about anyway then, if not you? Shhh. I'm on a roll here! Work with me!)? When fun was my alternative? Hah. Fun beat moody withdrawal and I'm glad it did.

Last Day

My last day on my own had arrived and Id not been felled by any strange disease. I'd already walked by two hospitals and nothing degenerated while I walked. Woo Hoo! I was just very noticeably relaxed. With no work or family responsibilities, I could just do what I wanted without needing to be anywhere or do anything. It was nice. Years ago, I read that the opposite of freedom isnt slavery--it is responsibility. There is a lot of truth to that, I think. I even joked to myself that getting Bells Palsy last year was God's way of telling me not to get used to just having too much fun. Indeed, on a date right before I went to Toronto last year, I'd discussed the concept with the women I was with. Its like you can get used to any burden and as long as you keep carrying it, you dont notice it as much. It is when you set the burden down that you notice it and then picking it up again becomes tougher because it is noticeable. Since I've been back I've been content to resume work responsibilities and glad to resume parental responsibilities. So setting down my lifes burdens was not crippling at all.

So on whatever holiday it was in Canada , I set out for the daily non-bar events. Today was supposed to be the still-under-renovation Ontario Art Museum, used book stores, and maybe the Royal Ontario Museum .

On the way I bought a couple souvenir t-shirts. The art museum was closed for the holiday so that blew one plan. So I returned to Yonge Street to search the book stores. Since I was quite young I've had a bunch of military history books called Ballantines History of World War II--or later History of the Violent Century when they branched out. They are well illustrated with maps, drawings, and pictures. And the text is first-rate, being written by well known and respected historians. I've loved these books since before I was a teenager and ever since for research and enjoyment. I have a couple dozen and the last one I found was one I found in Toronto probably ten years ago. Last year I struck out and even though I was half-convinced they were lost to the ages, I tried again. I had no luck in the first three (or was it only two?) stores. The first store had lots of interesting stuff and I almost bought some books just to buy something. But I held off.

And I'm glad I did. In the last store I found that day, I went into one store and the main floor had nothing. There were two more floors but you had to check your bags if you went off the first floor. After not finding any of these books for a decade and having no luck today, I debated the hassle of checking my bag of t-shirts. Oh what the heck. Nothing on the second floor. So I head up and find military history and history. Wandering down the aisle, I dont see the distinctive spine of the set. Then I rounded the end of the shelf and there they were, a about a foot-and-a-half of the series! In good shape with multiple copies! I started snatching titles off the shelf. I skipped some I had. With a half dozen books in hand I even passed on a few that were less interesting to me. These were titles that if Id just found them I would have gleefully picked them up. But in my book gluttony I could pass by the lesser ones. Besides, it gives me a reason to return to the store next year. If still there, I'll happy to buy them rather than just thinking I should buy them. And to add to my pleasure, the prices on the books had recently been reduced by 3 bucks each because they weren't selling. Weren't selling? The fools! These books arent anything special, but they are one of two things I collect in a haphazard way. Which means I dont use E-Bay and just count on chance to pick them up. Really, its more the thrill of looking and finding than actually owning. E-Bay turns it all on its head. Feh.

With my purchasing success in hand, I debated returning all the way to my hotel to dump my purchases. But with feet sore from days of walking, literally throbbing with each step, I decided the burden to my fingers was worth avoiding the hour walk it would take to return to my current spot. I walked up to Bloor and headed west.

I was looking for a place to get a chocolate shake or, preferably, a malt. I'd drank but one since arriving though I'd vowed to have a large one every day as I did last year. No luck. Before long, I ran into the Royal Ontario Museum . So I wandered down to it. The place, too, was under renovation. The price was a little lower than usual and there wasn't the usual last hour free deal I'd read about. I wasn't sure how much I could enjoy at full price. So I bought a large hot dog and chips, sat under a tree, ate, and contemplated what to do. I'd bought books and the art museum was closed. So if I didn't go here I'd have to figure out what to do the rest of the afternoon. Heck, I was right here and it was cheaper than I'd expected. And I hadn't spent on admission to the art place. So what the heck?

I paid my money and went inside. I skipped the Japanese and Chinese exhibits. I don't know why but artifacts from those regions don't appeal to me. Rome was closed. But Egypt and the Greeks were open. The explanatory material with each exhibit was pretty good with occasional recordings you could listen to. My ancient civilizations class helped a bit with context. One exhibit that I really liked and which reminded me why I am always dissatisfied with museums had a recreation of one of the artifacts--a little painting on a tablet. The artifact was dull and faded. The recreation with the original was bright and colorful as it would have been thousands of years ago. It was vibrant. Alive. It is something you'd want to have decorate your home if you were an ancient Egyptian. This is what bugs me about artifacts in museums. You see these things, cups, tools, and what-not, that were sometimes cheaply made for the masses. And what you see are dirty, chipped, and faded pieces. And I think, how sad. This is how they lived. In a sea of browns and faint colors. According to our museums, that is. There is just no way this is true.

A huge wall drawing made by a Pharaoh really gave the game away. It should have been bright to boldly telling a story of a great trade expedition to Somalia . The exotic animals and the strange foreigners should have stood out. Instead, I could barely follow the tale in the faint drawings with huge gaps in places as related by the recording.

So really, when new, I'm sure these items looked appealing to the people who bought them. Have people changed so much to have once not cared about how their belongings looked? They did color their objects, taking the time to make dyes, after all, and special glazes. I would love to see these items as archeologists think they looked when new. Then we'd see history. Not the faded land-fill refugees that we put in our museums today. Our ancestors were not artifacts. But we make them seem so very different from ourselves when we look at the crumbling artifacts we display. We should have replicas that bring the past alive and not dusty but real garbage. There's something wrong with our approach.

And the armor and weapons section was pretty cool. Plus I liked the furniture through the ages. It was neat to see the progression of unique items for the wealthy to mass produced for the middle classes. Hundreds of years ago, they too made miniature furniture for their children! See? Not too different. And so much was gaudy in its color or busy patterns. Color was important hundreds of years ago. It had to be thousands of years ago, too.

I checked out the gift shop but restrained myself from buying something just to buy. I saw nothing of real interest so just left.

After a few hours at the museum, I walked south through the university area--again giving directions to a lost soul. I even found a bar with cheap $3.00 burgers on special. Wow! I'll try to remember this place for next time to try. I wanted to start the evening pub run with dinner at a Greek restaurant I discovered on Queen last year. It was a mom and pop operation and quite empty when I went in. I was actually guilty last year that I couldn't finish my meal because I was quite stuffed to the gill from eating so much--trying to eat three big meals each day. It was so good I vowed to come back hungry this year.

I found the place. Or rather, where it used to be. It was now some slick quaintly named bar and grill. A burger and a couple pints worked for me. A good place but I miss the hole in the wall that I barely knew.

It was time to return to the hotel and dump my purchases. All I wanted now was some quiet pub time to hoist a few more pints, relax, and read. I went back to Cest What? And had blue chips and salsa plus some micro brews to pass the evening. Again, the place was rather empty so I dont know when they make their money.

This time I wrapped up my night a little after 11:00 and headed home. I packed up a bit and gathered my stuff to prepare for checking out.

Going Home

I overslept a little so I didnt have any chance to really do anything in the morning. I stumbled down to the Tim Horton for coffee and a pastry and discovered I had to dodge real work-day traffic and endure a huge line of people on their work day. It was 9:30 or so and I wondered just when do Torontonians start their work day? Shouldn't they all be sitting in front of a computer screen by now?? Why is it so busy? I ordered quickly like a resident and moved on, not holding up the line for even a moment by giving away my tourist status.

I packed all my dirty laundry, spare clothes that I miraculously hadn't needed, soaps and shampoo, and souvenirs. I had room for everything! I checked out quickly and left my great hotel with the huge room. I never did get a chance to try out the hotel bar, but oh well.

I went to some unfamiliar sandwich chain store and bought a decent lunch for the train ride back to Windsor . I lugged my stuff through Toronto s streets back to Union Station. After finding my gate, I returned outside, sat down, and read the Globe and Mail, watching people stroll by. One last bit of vacation.

Once on the train, I picked a seat and hauled out my book. I read, ate lunch, watched the scenery, and napped a bit. I could feel the relaxation ending when for the first time in days I thought of things I needed to do at work when I got back. Sigh. Work beckons.

The train was delayed so I was entering rush hour when I got to Detroit. U.S. customs questioned me a bit and then waved me through. Fifty miles later I was back in Ann Arbor with no mail piling up in my mailbox. Yes, the Post Office came through.

Looking at condo prices is always a kind of an exercise to wonder if I could ever live there. But I know that vacation is not the same as living there. I couldn't keep up the pace of activity and spending! And since so many Toronto residents flee out of the city each weekend for cabins, the locals dont see downtown living as especially thrilling. But it is nice to think about. As the credit card bills roll in, I'll be reminded that vacation is not the same as just hanging around. Still, I think I'll like retirement when I reach it! But until then, I still love being a dad despite the fun I had without responsibilities. So really, God, no need to afflict me with SARS or some other Canadian disease to remind me that we all have burdens we must carry. I've saddled up and I'm marching on.

This Needs to Work

American and Iraqi forces operating in Baghdad are attempting to stomp out the sectarian violence being carried out by Sadr's boys and other Iranian stooges on one side and Sunni terrorists on the other.

One result is the arrest of al Qaeda types:

U.S. soldiers raided a funeral and detained 60 men suspected of ties to al-Qaida car bombings, the U.S. command said Saturday in announcing the first major roundup of suspected insurgents since troop reinforcements began arriving for a new crackdown in Baghdad.

While this was the first major roundup, it may be for public relations. We know who the main enemy is:

In an interview with the New York Times published Saturday, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, said Iran was instigating Shiite militias to step up attacks on U.S. forces in retaliation for the Israeli assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Shiite Hezbollah is backed by Iran.

Iran's prodding has led to a surge in mortar and rocket attacks on the fortified Green Zone, the compound that houses the main components of the Iraqi government and the U.S. Embassy, Khalilzad was quoted as saying.

The Shiite guerrillas behind the attacks are members of splinter groups of the Mahdi Army, he said. The newspaper quoted unidentified officials of the Sadr Organization as saying that rogue elements of the Mahdi Army are not under their control and carry out attacks without guidance from al-Sadr.

"Iran is seeking to put more pressure, encourage more pressure on the coalition from the forces that they are allied with here," Khalilzad was quoted as saying.

The Sunnis mostly know they have lost and have been gradually moving toward ending the insurgency. But growing Shia frustration at Sunni terrorism has been enflamed since the Golden Dome mosque bombing earlier in the year and the increased violence instigated by Iran through their proxies including Sadr. This violence by pro-Iran Shias has made the Sunnis too scared to lay down their arms in the absence of proof that the government will protect them from vengeance attacks. Justice must be done for those guilty of crimes, but being Sunni must not mark someone for death by association.

And we are adding troops to Baghdad to clamp down and give the Sunnis the comfort level to surrender:

U.S. commanders are rushing nearly 12,000 more American and Iraqi soldiers into the capital. The military has not said how many reinforcements have arrived in Baghdad beginning last week, but some soldiers of the Army's 172nd Stryker Brigade have been seen on the city's streets.

We shall see if this is enough. We must win this battle if we want a free and democratic Iraq in the near term. If not, the government will eventually join the Shia death squads and kill or expel the Sunnis from Iraq to end the violence. The Sunni violence will be ended one way or the other.

Noticing Iran

When you don't want to deal with a problem that seems too hard the easiest thing to do is ignore it. If you can pretend you don't see it, the question of what to do about it never comes out. Blissful ignorance ensues--for a while anyway.

So when Strategypage writes about what the British are noticing, I think it is significant:

August 5, 2006: Britain has repeated its charges, based on additional evidence, that Iran is running terrorist training camps, and some of the graduates have been staging attacks against British troops in southern Iraq. The British have captured some of the camp graduates.

I continue to believe that we and the British have resolved to deal with Iran.

The Retreat from Vienna

After nearly a month of flailing about, Israel is trusting the tender mercies of the UN to deliver them from the thugs of Hizbollah. A ceasefire has been agreed to in the UN Security Council:

At the heart of the resolution are two elements: It seeks an immediate halt to the fighting that began July 12 when Hezbollah militants kidnapped two Israeli troops along the Blue Line, the U.N.-demarcated border separating Israel; and it spells out a series of steps that would lead to a permanent cease-fire and long-term solution.

That would be done by creating a new buffer zone in south Lebanon "free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL" — the acronym of the U.N. force deployed in the region since 1978. The force now has 2,000 troops; the resolution would expand it to a maximum of 15,000.

Certainly, I am relieved that a point of tension that could be exploited by Iran inside Iraq amongst Shias sympathetic to the plight of Lebanon's Shias has been ended.

But we bought Israel almost four weeks of time and they blew it trying to defeat several thousand terrorists and light infantry on the cheap. Our effort was for nought.

In 1973 the Israelis needed 18 days to mobilize and defeat the combined militaries of Syria and Egypt. This time the Israelis were unfocused, intent on winning with air power alone, then used minimal ground force in a shallow frontal assault that was just a low-level war of attrition, and then gathered forces for a big push that lasted all of half a day or so before pulling back. They could have had longer if they hadn't misused their air power in a misguided strategic campaign that compelled Sunni Arab states to cancel their support for Israel's fight against Shia terrorists.

The Israelis certainly hurt Hizbollah, but Hizbollah is undefeated.

But don't worry. A new and improved UNIFIL (Now With Spine!) will be on the scene. We shall see.

Israel had best get ready for round two. Well, the next government of Israel anyway.

Hizbollah certainly will be getting ready.

Difficulty Fallowing His Logic

James Fallows writes long, interesting, well-quoted, and detailed pieces for The Atlantic that are so long that you fail to note all the contradictions in his logic.

His recent "Declaring Victory" is no exception. I don't have the energy to go through them, though like past articles of his that I've read, I'd love to for this one. But the time suck would be immense.

So let me settle for focusing on this gem of improbability about one of the bad effects on the war on terror that the war in Iraq is having, according to Fallows:

In fact, even today's amply funded NSA can watch only a limited number of sites. "Our overhead imagery is dedicated to force protection in Iraq and Afghanistan," I was told by a former intelligence official who would not let me use his name. He meant that the satellites are tied up following U.S. troops on patrol and in firefights to let them know who might be waiting in ambush.

Excuse me while I wipe the beer from my computer screen.

Literally hundreds of patrols, firefights, and convoys take place every day, and I am to believe that our expensive satellites that streak over the sky are being used for tactical purposes? Yeah, I wouldn't want my name used if I claimed that, too.

We have aircraft, helicopters, balloons, pole-mounted sensors, and lots of UAVs providing tactical overhead imagery. We are not tasking fast-moving satellites to support our troops in contact with the enemy. There is no way our satellites could be used for that purpose. I am to believe that we get NSA imagery to the platoon or company commander on patrol or in a firefight in time to make the next tactical decision? Or warn him about the ambush 30 meters to his front? Riiiight. Must be a former intelligence official for Doctor Evil, or something.

Another mythical diversion from the war on terror.

Really, I have come to expect little from Fallows. He surely delivers in this article.

UPDATE: Arthur K. writes to point out the really obvious error in Fallows' assertion:

NSA doesn't DO imaging sattellites. They're signals intelligence. NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) runs the optical spy satts.

I wonder if the "former intelligence official " was just jerking his chain?

One of the perils of ranting while dignified is temporarily in a blind trust is that one can overlook something. I should have spotted this one.

Good Grief, Get a Grip

Joe Galloway is rather carried away in worrying about a Shia uprising that will stop our supply convoys and an Iranian anti-shipping campaign that will stop our supply ships from even getting supplies to Kuwait. Our armed forces in Iraq could be lost, he implies:

The lifeline for American forces in Iraq is a 400-plus-mile main supply route that runs from Kuwait through Shia-dominated and Iranian-infiltrated southern Iraq to Baghdad and points north and west.

Along that route, trucks and tankers driven by third-country nationals — Turks, Pakistanis and others — haul 95 percent of the beans and bullets for our troops and 100 percent of the fuel that our tanks and Bradleys and Humvees gulp at staggering rates.

That route runs through the heart of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim south, an area now thoroughly infiltrated by Iranian Revolutionary Guards and under the sway of well-armed Shiite militiamen and Iraqi police who are often indistinguishable from the militiamen and sometimes the same people.

The lightly protected American convoys are vulnerable to ambushes, improvised explosive devices and even an occasional rocket-propelled grenade slamming into a fuel tanker.

In an article for The Christian Science Monitor, Lang asked what we could do if that supply route were cut. Only about 5 percent of the supplies for our troops in Iraq come in by air. With a huge effort, that could be doubled or perhaps even tripled, but an airlift couldn’t provide nearly enough food, ammunition and fuel to keep our troops on the job, even if the Sunni insurgents around Baghdad and Balad didn’t start trying to shoot down the supply flights or drop mortar rounds on the runways.

Would our military have to stop trying to end the sectarian violence in Iraq in order to keep its own supply lines open? How many troops and tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles and helicopters would have to be diverted to such an effort, and would it be worth it?

There’s another strategic vulnerability farther up the chain: Supplies for our forces must first reach the main port in Kuwait by ships — ships that must transit the Strait of Hormuz past a gantlet of Iranian Silkworm anti-ship missiles and suicide torpedo boats.

Little wonder, then, that Iran and its ayatollahs have the nerve to thumb their noses at efforts to curtail their nuclear ambitions and to supply thousands of short- and medium-range missiles to their Hezbollah proteges in Lebanon.

Ooh. Scary.

First of all, Sadr's Shias are a minority of Shias so even if Sadr goes for round three (and why is he still alive to try round three?), it doesn't mean we've lost the Shias of Iraq.

Look, we faced a far worse threat on land back in spring 2004 from both Sadr's goons and the Sunni jihadis and Baathist who rose up against us. And then, we had just-in-time logistics. We faced down that threat and kept the supply lines open while fighting the insurgents. Since then, we've restructured our logistics so that supply interruptions won't halt operations. The enemy cannot cut off our supplies. They just can't.

As for the Gulf? Well, we handled the threat pretty well twenty years ago and Iran's recent chest thumping about wonder weapons at sea has been less than impressive. And in the tanker war of 1987-88, we didn't even strike Iran. If Iran goes after our supply ships, every naval and air asset in Iran will be toast in a fortnight.

Lord knows I worry about Sadr. But if he rises up it isn't because we've provoked him--he's been our enemy since day one. And he doesn't have the allegiance of anywhere near a majority of Shias. If Sadr rises up and violence surges in open civil strife, we work the problem and remember our objective. Giving up never makes a problem better.

We need another Patton to give a whole lot of people a good slapping. Get a grip, people.

Preparing the Next 9/11

The British have either stopped or disrupted a planned mass airline attack using liquid explosives smuggled on to a number of planes:

British authorities said Thursday they thwarted a terrorist plot to simultaneously blow up 10 aircraft heading to the U.S. using explosives smuggled in hand luggage, averting what police described as "mass murder on an unimaginable scale."

Police arrested 24 people, saying they were confident they captured the main suspects in what U.S. officials said was a plot in its final phases that had all the earmarks of an al-Qaida operation. However, ABC News quoted unidentified U.S. officials who had been briefed on the plot as saying five suspects were still at large and being urgently hunted.

It is often said that terrorists have to succeed only once to win. We have to succeed every time in stopping them. This is true up to a point. But succeeding in a plot to kill us isn't the same as winning. The fact that sometimes terrorists will succeed in killing us doesn't mean that it is pointless to stop 99% or 90%--or even 20%--rather than just give up and let all 100% of the plots succeed. It matters a whole lot whether the enemy constantly succeeds or only occasionally succeeds as tragic as the losses are that do occur.

This truism about the enemy only needing to succeed once also fails to consider the view from the other end. It is common to say that our fleet-footed enemies operate in networks and can outwit our slow bureaucratic response. This is mostly a lot of BS as I argued in September 2001:

Intelligence and covert operations are the first line of active defense and the first echelon of attack. The aerial suicide attacks on our people and the symbols of our power took enormous amounts of time to carry out. This is one weakness of our enemy. While they may carry out small attacks using small arms or small bombs at a moment's notice, truly horrific attacks require time because they must be planned in the shadows to avoid detection. We must increase our ability to detect such preparations and make sure the information is interpreted to provide timely and specific warnings. Then, the people who need this information must actually get the warning in time to take actions.

More importantly, we must exploit the fact that these attacks take time to organize. Intelligence must track the enemy terror cells in order to strike the enemy and disrupt them by keeping them on the move and by killing or arresting their operatives. We must sow confusion and paranoia in their ranks to slow them down and get them to fight each other. Our ability to use so many weapons is one advantage of being a powerful state. We may be a large target but we are not a helpless giant. America can direct precise or massive force quickly and globally as needed. Keeping the initiative is crucial. This will compel our enemies to start their preparation from scratch again and again. Giving the enemy time to prepare only guarantees that eventually they will be ready and will strike.

We have many resources and as long as we are hunting, killing, and arresting the enemy and not letting them plan in peace in a sanctuary, they must operate slowly and carefully to avoid detection. This gives us time to catch them before they strike. And when we find them, our vast resources can swoop on them quickly if need be or take defensive actions to defeat or deflect the attack if discovered.

In this case the British arrested some of the suspects, the good guys are looking for five others, we've heightened security at our airports, and we are surely doing other things that we won't know about--until the New York Times prints them next week, of course.

So do remember, the threat is real. And it is true that the enemy has to succeed only once to kill lots of us.

But remember, too, that the enemy's plots to kill us must go through a number of stages as they plan, recruit, fund, train, scout, and actually attack. If we find out about the attack at any stage in the perhaps months or years it takes to execute a big attack, we can strike back and react.

The enemy has to hide their plans every step of the way. We have to find them only once during this laborious and lengthy process before they strike to win.

This time, we've at least blunted the attack. It is too soon to tell if we stopped it.

Another question is whether this is the attack attempt that Osama bin Laden appeared to be hinting at and justifying earlier in the year.

Time and the Street

Being out of the news krill stream has made me forget some of my worries.

This reminded me of a major one that makes me think Israel does not have the time to win with heavy-handed operations:

"Israel must take the utmost care in avoiding civilian casualties," [State Department spokesman Sean ] McCormack said.

Early on in the conflict, I worried that the sight of our ally Israel killing Shias in Lebanon could be a problem for us in Iraq. Our continued concern for civilians there certainly in part reflects our concerns about the radical Shias in Iraq taking advantage of the conflict within Lebanon.

The Shia Iraqi 'street" may not have been much of a factor in spontaneously rising up to overthrow pro-American governments in the past, but in Iraq we don't face mass unfocused anger. We face organized radical Shias such as Sadr's goons who are backed by Iran and who want to harm us and wreck a democratic Iraq. They might spark focused anger that harms us or the Iraqi government.

The Soviets may not be pressuring us to end the fight inside Lebanon, but we may have to soon for our own reasons. We might like Israel to destroy Hizbollah now, but we must maintain the support of Iraq's Shias.

Time is our enemy in this, I think.

If You Start to Take Vienna

As Napoleon said, when you start to take Vienna, take Vienna.

After finding that strategic bombing was insufficient to defeat Hizbollah or pressure Lebanon into doing the job, Israel has found its aerial campaign has increased foreign opposition to the campaign. And the air campaign has failed to stop the missile attacks.

Then Israel sent in 10,000 troops into a shallow penetration. This has failed to stun hizbollah and has just given Hizbollah a front line to defend without worrying too much about their rear. It is a war of attrition, now.

Israel can't readily go back in time and conduct a narrowly focused ground and air campaign against Hizbollah targets. I think this would have let Israel maintain at least tacit Arab support for a lengthy fight that did not kill many Lebanese.

Israel has surely done damage to Hizbollah, but the political cost may be too high to allow Israel to really gut Hizbollah.

So now, after mobilizing at least 30,000 troops, Israel is going to the Litani River with at least triple the strength of the current force of 10,000. Israel is talking about 100 to 200 casualties to do this over two to four weeks:

Under the army's proposal for a wider offensive, troops would push to and in some cases beyond Lebanon's Litani River, about 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border. With Cabinet approval, troops could move forward immediately, defense officials said.

More than 10,000 Israeli soldiers have been fighting several hundred Hezbollah guerrillas in a four-mile stretch north of the border, but have faced fierce resistance.

Earlier this week, the Israeli military declared a no-drive zone south of the Litani and threatened to blast any moving vehicles as guerrilla targets. Country roads and highways were deserted throughout the area on Wednesday. In the Lebanese coastal city of Tyre, only pedestrians ventured into the streets.

The Israelis are moving right now. So with finesse out, a heavy hand is being used.

One assumption I've been operating under is that Israel has limited time. But Israel has had more time than I thought we could buy them. In the past, Soviet pressure in defense of their clients could limit Israel's victories because we feared escalation to global nuclear war and we would pressure Israel to stand down. But crises aren't powder kegs for global nuclear war anymore. This fight in southern Lebanon could escalate, sure, to include Syria, Iran, Turkey, and America. This would be ugly, but in the end we could prevail if willing to pay the price. We can't actually be defeated in battle.

So in the aftermath of the failure of the recent diplomatic route, Israel has taken a gut check and decided to win in battle. We shall see if they can maintain this will to win with a greater commitment. We shall see if we can shield Israel and leverage a real force to disband Hizbollah in Lebanon. We shall see if Syria intervenes out of mistake or calculation.

But the cost cited is for just the next month. If Israel does not get a robust international or Lebanese force to keep Hizbollah from regrouping, in a couple years we'll be right back where we started if Israel then withdraws; or Israel will still be losing troops in a low-level insurgency.

Still, one can't rule out that Israel will get the time to really hammer Hizbollah and then pull back to the border, declaring their mission of hammering Hizbollah accomplished; and watch a real force move in to disarm a weakened Hizbollah.

If not, the Israeli retreat from Vienna will make a greater media victory for Hizbollah--no matter how bloodied Hizbollah is at the end of it.

UPDATE: The big offensive is apparently on hold. Time ticks away without a maximum effort.

I've always been a bandaid off fast kind of guy. Too late for that, now, of course, a month into this. But is even more delay in trying to win the best way to go? Israel seems determined to show maximum force to get an acceptable UN ceasefire rather than use maximum force.

ANOTHER UPDATE: I read (no link) that we pressured Israel heavily to hold off for a couple days. I guess my reflection on our worries is on target.

Coalition of the Newly Willing

As the last month's events from North Korea to India seem to indicate increasing problems, consider the trends as Strategypage notes:

July also offered a lesson in timelines for democratic change. Sixteen years ago (Aug. 2, 1990), Saddam invaded Kuwait. Between 1990 and his overthrow in 2003, Saddam killed an estimated 250,000 people (mostly Kurds and Shia Arabs). Would anyone in 1990 or in March 2003 have predicted a freely elected Iraqi prime minister would appear before the U.S. Congress and thank America for giving his country the opportunity to create a democracy?

"Iraqis are your allies in the war on terror," Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told a joint session of Congress.

That happened on July 26, 2006.

So while terrorists strike in India, India joins us in tighter alliance.

While North Koreans rattle sabres, Japan re-arms and tightens their alliance with us.

As terrorists strike in Iraq, Iraqis add forces to our coalition that fights with us against terror.

As Taliban and al Qaeda strike in Afghanistan, NATO ramps up and Afghan forces fight at our side.

And even in Hizbollah's fight, we've added Israelis who are thumping on terrorists so we don't have to--and id Damascus gets careless, Israel could collide with Syria--which will devastate Assad's regime when it is over.

And our roles in Afghanistan and Iraq will decline as our new allies take on more of the burden of fighting and defeating our common enemies in those countries. Which will leave our forces free to deal with other enemies.

So end the talk of our forces too stretched or America acting "unilaterally." In the end, all that talk really means is that France isn't helping us.

So how nuanced is the judgment that we are losing and isolated?

Recycled Armor

Interesting pictures on TV of Israeli armored personnel carriers being moved up to the border with Lebanon.

The pictures are of modified T-54/55s captured in long ago wars with Arab armies. In 1973 and after, the Israelis used them as tanks.

But now, these hopelessly obsolete tanks have a new lease on life as a heavily armored infantry carrier. With the turret removed and the hull modified to hold infantry, this ancient former tank provides much more protection than thin-skinned M-113 derivatives.

Israel has used old Centurian tanks for this, too.

Recycling is good.

Al Banzai

The continuing talk of how Iraq is on the verge of a civil war continues to annoy me.

As I've said before, fifteen to twenty percent of the population just does not qualify as a major opponent of the other 80-85 percent which has the army, police, and other security apparatus at its disposal. Add in American and Coalition support to that majority and the very idea that the Sunnis of Iraq could fight a civil war is ludicrous.

Well if you won't believe me, try Strategypage (given its own unique link here later):

People who should know better, including diplomats, and those just looking for an exciting headline, are talking up civil war in Iraq once more. You can't have a civil war if one side is so weak that it's unable to raise an army and put up much of a fight. In that case you have the weaker side expelled, wiped out, or forced to accept whatever terms the stronger side will grant. In this case, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq have the short end of the stick. The Sunni Arabs in Iraq never comprised more than 20 percent of the population. Emigration in the past three years, to avoid the violence, and vengeance of Shia and Kurds, has reduced that to fifteen percent. But the worst thing that's happened to the Sunni Arabs, is the creation of an effective non-Sunni Arab army and police force. The Sunnis Arabs are outnumbered and outgunned, and facing the growing threat of massacre and expulsion from Iraq. ...

In 2003, the apparatus of Sunni domination, was taken apart. Sunni Arabs no longer held nearly all the senior military, police and government jobs. The Sunni Arab secret police force(s) were disbanded, as was the army. For the first time in over three centuries, the Sunni Arabs of Baghdad were not in charge, and they did not like it. They have been resisting this change in status ever since. But in the last three years, things have only gotten worse for the Sunni Arabs. The new government (dominated by Kurds and Shia Arabs, who are 80 percent of the population) has created an army and police force. So not only are the Sunni Arabs outnumbered, but they are confronted with an army and police force controlled by their enemies.

And it gets worse, because the Sunni Arab dictatorship got worse as time went on. The last 10-15 years of Saddam's rule were particularly horrible for the Kurds and Shia Arabs. There were massacres and constant terror from Saddam's secret police. So not only are the Sunni Arabs now outnumbered, and facing over a quarter million soldiers and police they do not control, they are also on the receiving end of revenge attacks by millions of enraged Kurds and Shia Arabs.

This is not the recipe for civil war, it's the prelude to massacre and mass expulsion. Of the Sunni Arabs. In Iraq, everyone is aware of this, but too many foreigners, including many who should know better, just don't get it.

Yes, it is a problem that Iran is trying to incite Shias to kill Sunnis and prevent them from agreeing to a political settlement that ends terror and prevents justice against Saddam's thugs from degenerating into ethnic cleansing.

But don't confuse the problem we face with some strange future where Sunnis--who mostly live in mixed areas and not a distinct region anyway--carve out their own Sunniland within Iraq.

The Sunnis surely realize they are playing a dangerous game. The longer they hold out making a deal with the majority, the more likely it is that the Shias will tire of talking while Sunni terrorists car bomb Shia civilians. Sadly, the perverse refusal to face reality that we've seen from Saddam claiming to have won the Persian Gulf War, to Baghdad Bob denying American tanks were near Baghdad as they were routing Saddam's forces, to Hizbollah claiming victory for surviving a month of continuing Israeli assaults, means the Iraqi Sunnis may come to their senses too late.

Absent a peace deal, the Shias will eventually just go Mediaeval on all the Sunnis--as the Sunnis established as the traditional means of dealing with enemies in the region.

Still Fighting

I'm surprised that Israel is still fighting in Lebanon against Hizbollah.

I have no doubt that Israel is harming Hizbollah. But I figured that the Israelis could not drive Hizbollah from the field before pressure compelled Israel to halt. I thought Israel's air strikes on infrastructure would shorten their time available. And Israel's refusal to commit ground forces to hammer Hizbollah quickly would be their prime mistake in this fight.

But we have been more effective at buying time for Israel than I thought we could be.

Still, I'm not shocked that rockets are still falling in large number on Israeli civilians.

Mind you, I am not saying that I believed Israel should have invaded in force to begin with. I think a more focused effort could have been sustained much longer than a half-hearted campaign as is being waged now.

My complaint is that it is amazing that Israel has taken so long to put 10,000 troops into southern Lebanon. Having decided to go in on the ground, it would have been better to do it faster and bigger. Why has it taken so long to put such a small force a few kilometers across the border?

In theory, if Israel can keep up even this inefficient method of killing Hizbollah for long enough, they can crush Hizbollah. Hizbollah can boast all they want, but they are suffering heavily though it is not apparent in the press.

I just doubt if we can buy them the time. And I think Israel could have fought this in a way that wouldn't have made time an ally of the enemy.

If I Was Truly Suspicious

If I was truly suspicious, I'd suspect the BP decision to shut down an oil pipeline in Alaska was part of an effort to give us an excuse to open up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in anticipation of action against Iran.

It will take some time to get the oil flowing from the reserve and absent an innocent reason to do so, it might tip our hand. But with a reason--the Alaska pipeline shut down--we can start the process of getting oil flowing out of the SPR. And once flowing, we can max it out rather than just replace the Alaska oil.

If true, then the Alaska pipeline would be put back in action very quickly once military action or a revolution starts in Iran in order to add oil to the world supply to make up in part for Iranian stoppages. And if the rest of the world has oil stockpiled by oil companies and countries, we might make up Iran's oil exports for a while.

If I was truly suspicious, of course.

It could just all be as it appears.

So What Happened While I Was Gone?

On July 26th I wondered if Iran's promise to "respond" to our nuclear offer could be more ominous than yet another refusal to cooperate. Could it be nuclear in nature?

Two days later I snapped out of it and said, nah, Iran is being too cautious in regard to Lebanon to be readying a nuclear response. Why show caution if you are about to go nuclear? The more chaos the better if that is your objective.

But today when I get home from vacation I hear speculation on TV about the possible significance of August 22nd.

So what has happened over the last week to make television shows wonder about the date and Iran's response?

UPDATE: Good Grief, Bernard Lewis (via Real Clear Politics) is wondering about Iran, August 22nd, and nukes. He doesn't say it is likely that we would see a nuclear "answer" to our demands--just that it bears watching:

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead--hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

Now I'm worried again.

And even if there is nothing ominous about this August 22nd, how can we deter such whackjobs who believe that they win if they win and win if they die? If they get nuclear weapons, what stays their hand?

We have to take down Iran's mullahs. Soon.

Unusual Focus on Training

I recently wrote of Chinese efforts that indicate they are serious about learning how to fight:

On the heels of Strategypage reporting that the Chinese have set up their version of a National Training Center to churn out high quality army units, the Chinese have set up their own Top Gun program to train pilots[.]

Now, Joseph H. writes with a link to an article showing that the PLA has created mock ups of Taiwanese air bases to practice destroying them:

China’s People’s Liberation Army has built two facilities in the eastern province of Gansu that simulate a military air force base in Taiwan. The facilities are used for drills, a Canada-based military news website has reported.

The site – the Kanwa Defence Review – said high-resolution satellite photographs clearly showed the two facilities, set up near Dingxin airport in Jiayuguan . They are modelled to perfection on the Ching Chuan Kang Air Base in Taiwan. The site said: “It is a clear sign that the Chinese army has stepped up its preparation for military struggles against Taiwan.”

You can get away with poorly trained mass in a land war against a smaller enemy. But for airborne and amphibious operations, you can't initially get the overwhelming numbers you might be used to from past wars whether in Korea or against Vietnam. You need quality to break down the door.

This type of training is expensive and I worry about what it might mean for the near future.

Of course, the PLA might never really succeed in this training due to corruption and inertia. We shall see.

Buying Time

The efforts to call for a ceasefire continue while Israel hits hard before they feel compelled to halt their attacks.

This race with time would not be so critical if the Israelis had not used their air power so widely in a futile effort to stop rocket attacks. The attacks have not stopped and yesterday the rockets were launched in record numbers.

But the attacks have been really ineffective:

In the last 24 hours, Hizbollah fired a record 231 rockets at five Israeli towns, killing one Israeli (a civilian) and wounding 49. The Hizbollah rocket campaign against Israel has been a colossal failure, and this is being noticed in the Arab world. So far, it appears that Hizbollah has to fire over a hundred rockets, to kill one Israeli civilian. This is not impressive, especially when you consider that Hizbollah is trying to kill Israeli civilians. Many of the rocket warheads have been modified (with the addition of hundreds of small metal balls) to enhance their anti-personnel effect.

My question is how much more time would Israel have had to hit Hizbollah if they hadn't gone after the rocket sites, killing innocents that Hizbollah ensured would be in the area (don't get me wrong, Hizbollah is the side violating the rules of war on this situation, not Israel. Israel has the right to shoot at attackers regardless of where they are)?

The Israelis would still be in shelters and the rockets would still fall, but the rockets would still be inaccurate. Israelis would clearly be the victims as a few Israeli civilians die in a campaign where on the other side of the border mostly Hizbollah terrorists get killed with few Lebanese civilians dying by accident.

Of course, if Israel did not go after the launchers, people would have assumed that air power could stop them. So maybe with a democracy clamoring for action this would not be possible in practice. Still, remember this. "Doing something" is not always wise.

Special Effects

I have repeatedly said that I am upset with Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure in Lebanon just because Hizbollah may use it, thinking it counter-productive and not worth the price Israel is paying in regard to the time constraints they must fight under. But Strategypage writes that the attacks are more flash than bang:

That said, the Israelis appear to be approaching the destruction of Hizbollah in a methodical fashion. The first two weeks were spent hitting Hizbollah targets that were obvious, and some non-obvious ones obtained from agents on the ground or within Hizbollah. While these air attacks appeared to hit things that all Lebanese used, like highway overpasses and bridges,. on closer examination, the bombs were placed where they would do temporary damage (just taking down some of the roadbed), rather than much longer term, and expensive to repair, damage (to main supports). This detail was noticed by many Lebanese.

So when the dust settles, the Lebanese may not be as upset as they appear.

But the world will continue to believe Israel "destroyed" Lebanon and set them back twenty years. I think that a lot of thought should go into whether this campaign was worth it.

Cage Match

Our Navy and Coast Guard are already nearby and Congress is pushing legislation to aid dissidents in Cuba with money. All just in case Castro dies.

When Castro dies--or if he is already, when it becomes known--we could see a lot of refugees rolling into Florida. Plus Cuban exiles might be tempted to go to Cuba to take part in a civil war if that develops.

And if civil war or even just factional jockeying for position occurs, might not Chavez of Venezuela be tempted to intervene to keep Cuba in the Axis of El Vil?

The world moves on though we have other priorities. Iran may get a massive distraction to put off the day of reckoning over the mullahs' nuclear weapons programs.

If chaos breaks out in Cuba , it may be wise to blockade the island to keep out any foreign personnel who might take sides--either exiles or Venezuelans. And quietly encourage the opposition. I'm tempted to say that Cubans would resent American interference after decades of Castro propaganda, but proximity to us and contact with exiles may have kept Cubans in general from having a poor opinion of America. And prevented Cubans from thinking they live in a worker's paradise.

Best to keep an eye on this brewing crisis.

Fort Apache

US forces with Iraqi army units in support continue to try and extend a web of forts inside Ramadi with the idea of creating a mesh of strong points that squeeze the enemy out and make movement within the city difficult:

U.S. and Iraqi forces are advancing one step at a time into key locations in Ramadi's walled neighborhoods, setting up small outposts of about 100 troops each. The goal is to slowly choke off the insurgents' ability to move freely, making them easier to capture or kill. Meanwhile, Iraqi soldiers, backed by U.S. troops, are to take the lead in patrolling around the outposts, creating small zones of safety for residents that will gradually spread.

As the strongpoints multiply, the enemy will have fewer areas to operate in and the people of Ramadi will be able to cooperate more with the government with less fear of enemy reprisals.

Or at the very least, government forces will keep the areas under close enough watch to keep enemy supporters from acting on their sympathies. This is classic counter-insurgency.

This assumes the Sunnis of Ramadi are capable of being reasonable and are not, in fact, committed supporters of the enemy who will not stop resisting as long as they are living. If so, the Iraqi government will decide to go Mediaeval on Ramadi at some point in time. When we aren't around to object, of course.

The obvious sympathy that Ramadi residents have for the enemy is one reason I hoped our attack on Baghdad back in March-April 2003 would through the Sunni Ramadi Gap. Rampaging tanks through enemy territory is far better than going through Shia territory as we did in the Karbala Gap further south in the final drive toward Baghdad.

Ramadi never did get a good demonstration of our power. So now we're doing it the hard way. Well, as I said, the hard way for us. Sunnis will hate the other way to stop their violence.

A Problem With an Explanation

This is a problem:

More than two-thirds of the Army National Guard's 34 brigades are not combat ready, mostly because of equipment shortages that will cost up to $21 billion to correct, the top National Guard general said Tuesday.

The active Army, too, has similar problems though every unit in Iraq or Afghanistan is good to go.

First, the Guard. Back when the Guard had 42 brigades, only the fifteen enhanced readiness brigades were trained or equipped well enough to be called ready for war. So percentage-wise, the situation is not much different. The goal for the future is that the Guard will always have 4 or 5 of 28 brigades ready for deployment with Guard combat brigades on a six year training cycle. So even with full funding, not all Guard brigades will be ready for combat. In part, this story is about leveraging money from Congress for the Guard. In part it is just a consequence of being at war. In part, it is a real problem. So address it but don't panic.

As for the Army, back in the late 1990s when not at war, there was serious discussion of establishing tiered readiness for our ten active divisions so that only a few would be rated as fully ready for combat. Others that wouldn't deploy for months in a crisis would have lower readiness. Even under the planned force generation model for the future, a third of the active Army would be standing down from war or availability for war and thus be unready as they discharge members, repair and replace equipment, and send troops to school. Another third would be getting ready to go (and could be accelerated in a crisis), and the last third would be in the field or on call. So again, having active units unready is natural as units are rotated out of war zones. Budget cycles call, in part, too.

I do think we are cutting it too close with equipment but this is a problem and not a crisis. Units coming home from Iraq wouldn't be ready for war even with 100% of their equipment sitting in the bases.

Address the issue. Don't panic over it.

A Formidable Ally

Japan is reacting to potential threats from North Korea and China by bolstering their defenses and their alliance with America, as the annual report by Japan's Defense Agency makes clear:

This year's report devotes a full chapter to the realignment of the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan and efforts to meld Japanese and U.S. forces into a more effective and more closely coordinated force.

The realignment, the result of years of negotiations, involves a streamlining of the U.S. military in Japan — including the transfer of some 8,000 Marines off the southern island of Okinawa to the U.S. territory of Guam. It also entails closer coordination on intelligence-gathering and in ballistic missile defense, a major concern for Japan. ...

While Japan is not significantly increasing expenditures, it is overhauling its military in other ways.

Japan's Cabinet last month endorsed a bill to upgrade the Defense Agency to a full-fledged ministry, reflecting the growing role of the military at home and abroad. The upgrade would bolster the agency's status within the government and put it in a better position to negotiate for more funds.

Japan now spends about $43 billion on defense each year, putting it behind the United States, Russia, China and Britain. It has a standing army of about 150,000, and its air force and navy are among the most powerful in Asia.

Japan is a significant power in the western Pacific and has the economic power to be a far bigger player.

Sure, Japan's army is small, but that is not significant. It is large enough to defend Japan and provide high quality forces for power projection in the region for limited contingencies. And Japan's navy and air force are high quality. So Japan couldn't invade China. China couldn't invade Japan. But on, below, and in the air over the seas between them, Japan would smash up the Chinese even without American help. Absent the use of nuclear weapons, of course.

China's power is growing. And they may become a major power in my life. But the Chinese aren't ten feet tall. And we have tall friends, too. Oh, and we aren't too shabby either.

So one more time, and with feeling, I wouldn't trade places with China. Japan is just one of the reasons.

UPDATE: Mad Minerva has thoughts and has tracked down the English language version of the Japanese report cited.

And Strategypage writes about what China's stubborn refusal to deal with North Korea has given Peking:

In the past, North Korean bouts of international madness occasionally served Beijing's strategic ends. Kim's Stalinist regime rattles the U.S. and scares Japan. However, China and Russia now have extensive trade relations with Japan and South Korea. The South Korean economic powerhouse invests in China.

Japanese fear is producing changes in Japanese military doctrine. No one in Asia wants a militarily resurgent Japan, particularly China.

But North Korea's ballistic missile barrage has ignited The Rising Sun.

The Japanese government is now openly cooperating with the U.S. on anti-ballistic missile defense, including the deployment of U.S.-made Patriot Pac-3 anti-missile missiles to Okinawa. Defense is one thing -- Japan's "Self-Defense Forces" are designed to defend Japan. Offensive strike capability is something else entirely.

Last month, the London Times wrote that "Kim's adventures" had radicalized Japanese opinion. "'The vast majority of Japanese agree that we need to be able to carry out first strikes,' said Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University." According to Shimada, Japan must "have an offensive missile capability."

Japan could have offensive missiles in a couple of months. For that matter, Japan could produce a nuclear weapon within a few weeks.

So remember this when you get the urge to wax on about China's patient, long-range strategy. I think we attribute ancient wisdom to mere secretiveness and inflexibility.

Yeah. Like Strategypage Says

I was thinking of pulling together a lot of posts that summarize my thinking on the Israeli campaign inside Lebanon against Hizbollah, but Strategypage posted a piece that really did it all for me. First, the basics of my worry about Israel's actions:

Rather than conduct carefully focused air and commando strikes directly against Hezbollah's leaders, forces, and infrastructure, the Israelis went in loaded for bear. It's not clear just what the Israeli objective was. If the intent was to break Hezbollah, then why were most of the targets struck not directly connected with Hezbollah, and most not even in the Hezbollah-dominated south? Some policy analysts seem to think Israel may have been hoping to force the Lebanese government to initiate its own action against Hezbollah. Perhaps, but might that have been more likely if the Israelis inflicted grievous injury to Hezbollah while leaving the rest of Lebanon relatively unscathed?

And then the caveat:

While Israeli actions are understandable, given frustration over years of violent attacks by genocidal enemies, and although in the circumstance civilian losses are legitimately Hezbollah's responsibility, a more carefully crafted response would likely have paid off better. A Machiavellian strategy is needed, not a kinetic one. Then again, Israel does understand the neighborhood, and may have gauged Lebanese public opinion, in the long term, better than outsiders give credit for.

Exactly. I want Israel to defeat Hizbollah. I think Israel is screwing up. But I may not be giving Israel enough credit.

As Israel seems to be ramping up ground operations, I can only ask if this is a two- or three-day effort prior to a ceasefire or an open-ended effort that holds southern Lebanon until an acceptable international/Lebanese force comes to disarm Hizbollah. And Israel could be under the view that they can do the latter when they really only have days to fight.

But really, if Israel had started a major ground operation two weeks ago without the "strategic" air campaign, the good guys would be in a much better position. Even with Israel operating across Lebanon and even deep inside Lebanon at Baalbek, television reports say that this is still only about 3,000 troops despite the breadth of the operations. When one recalls that three Israeli divisions reached Beirut in six days in 1982 while smashing a Syrian brigade, ripping up the PLO, and shooting down the cream of the Syrian air force in the process, the unfocused flailing of the Israelis today is astounding. When one considers that in 1973 the Israelis were taken by surprise and hurt badly by the Egyptian and Syrian surprise offensives yet still managed in 18 days to put Damascus in artillery range and cut off an entire Egyptian corps, placing Cairo in their sights, the dithering today is depressing. And let's not even discuss what Israel did in six days in 1967.

Even better, if Israel had operated as Strategpage notes (and as I hoped they might have), it could be even more successful.

Or maybe my arm chair is just really too comfy. Perhaps the recent surge in ground activity is the first sign of real Israeli success. I doubt it. It all depends on how long Israel has and how much Israel commits to the fight. Even if Israel pulls a win out of the current losing effort, Israel will need to do some serious analysis about why they flailed about so much for so long against Hizbollah.

UPDATE: This says 8,000 troops in Lebanon:

Israel pressed the first full day of a massive new ground attack, sending 8,000 troops into southern Lebanon on Wednesday and seizing five people it said were Hezbollah fighters in a dramatic airborne raid on a northeastern town. Hezbollah retaliated with its deepest strikes yet into Israel, firing a record number of more than 160 rockets.

Assuming support troops are still inside Israel for what is so far a shallow penetration, we could be talking the line elements of four brigades or so. Earlier reports said a number of brigades were operating in Lebanon but the "helpful" report said each brigade has 500 to 700 troops. That's a battalion, actually. Three or four battalions to a brigade. So I assumed 3,000 based on the number of reported "brigades."

This is troops strength that could do real harm to Hizbollah. If Israel has the time to hammer them, of course. If only Israel had done this several weeks ago.

Plus a successful raid on Baalbek. Kudos on that one.

Further, for all the talk of "interdicting" Hizbollah supplies, rockets keep falling at a fast clip. Just what did Israel get for the bad press of a strategic bombing campaign? Because they've lost that most precious commodity of all because of the campaign--time.

So kill as many Hizbollah as they can and pull back. Occupation won't work. Israel had to pull out six years ago, so nobody will believe Israel can't be forced out again.

ANOTHER UPDATE: This post argues Israel is hammering Hizbollah severely. I have no doubt this is true. I assume it and have assumed that fact from the beginning. But what I don't know is whether it is enough to give Israel a victory in the larger sense given the outrage over civilian casualties and given the amount of time Hizbollah is still fighting.

But as for the air attacks cutting off Hizbollah from Syria, I just don't see that at all. Rockets keep falling and if Hizbollah could stockpile 13,000 rockets, they have plenty of bullets and RPGs, too.

Israel needed to either fight for a long time at low levels with special forces, paratroopers, and occasional fire missions from the air or artillery that operated under the radar, so to speak; or at high levels for a short period of time. Either way could have killed lots of Hizbollah without drawing out the Arab street on Hizbollah's side. Instead, Israel is going in at high levels for a long period of time.

Eating Raul

Castro's death could mean more than just a question of what happens inside Cuba. If Fidel thinks that his brother Raul inherits the leadeship of more than an island just because Fidel wants it so, he may have made a mistake in misjudging the good will of his Venezuelan ally Hugo Chavez. Hugo may have bigger goals than just being a side kick forever.

This article says the Hugo Chavez will certainly cry a lot when Castro finally dies. But that Chavez will want to be the leader of the Axi of El Vil when the aging communist gunslinger is gone. Castro had his day, but Cuba is no longer the vanguard of Latin American revolutionary thought:

Chavez sees this as old Communism, and he is the future. He is the Bolivarian revolutionary learning from his Communist forefathers’ mistakes — save for the fundamentally-flawed-philosophy one — and thinking beyond even his own Venezuela. He is quashing opposition, press and even clergy with such slick spin to successfully delude outsiders into believing that he is a humanitarian who has perfected socialism — not the power-ravenous megalomaniac who claims even Jesus Christ was a socialist revolutionary.

Chavez fancies himself the cult of personality that will eclipse the long-fading allure of Castro; he fantasizes about being the larger-than-life leader who can unite even the most stubborn and independent Latin American countries into the United States of Hugo.

While the Cuban regime has faded into oblivion on the world stage, languishing in relative isolation, Chavez has taken a different tack. Around the globe he goes, drumming up support and making bosom buddies in some of the most despicable regimes that exist. His most recent tour has included Belarus and Vietnam; missile-lobbing North Korea only got scratched off the list at the last minute (not for a lack of mutual desire). And, of course, Chavez spent his 52nd birthday on Friday whooping it up in Iran. While his ministers made energy deals and hashed out eleven memoranda of understanding with the Islamic Republic, Chavez got to spend some cozy time with another nuclear-happy global threat, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

But crowns are not just passed along because Castro dies and Hugo gives a fiery speech denouncing America and has visa stamps for visits to the outlaws of the world. Hugo will have to seize the crown by action that confirms his revolutionary credentials. Hugo needs something tangible. And something he thinks is achievable with few bad consequences following.

So if I was in charge of the Netherlands, given past Chavez sabre rattling, I'd reinforce the garrisons of the Dutch West Indies (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao). And ask America to send an expeditionary strike group to the region for a little joint exercise while Castro is in the hospital.

If leadership of the Axis of El Vil isn't in Castro's will, I'd worry that Hugo skips probate and grabs the family silver while everone is distracted.

Hugo may be a posturing fool. But he is a posturing fool with oil, delusions of grandeur, and oil over $70 per barrel. Not a good combination if Hugo thinks he spots his chance to enter the history books.