The Coming Black Box of Effects

Calling for help from everything near the battlefield, whatever they are, and all at once if necessary.

I've long wanted a "black box of effect" that ground troops would use when calling in fire or other effects support:

In my ideal world, fire support is a black box where a call to destroy or suppress a target automatically calls in the appropriate weapon capable of taking out the target in a timely manner without the soldier making the support request even knowing what asset provided the support.

It could be a plane or space system out of sight, an attack helicopter, a ship or submarine offshore, a distant ground force missile or artillery asset, or even an 81mm mortar back at the company level. ...

Here we go:

“[The vision is] having connectivity between our formations, having every aircraft being able to talk to every aircraft, every ship able to talk to every aircraft, every unit of action on the ground talk to every other unit of action on the ground, and the shooters in the air and in maritime,” Grynkewich said. “So that’s work that’s ongoing.”

Unit of action? Whoa. That's an old term. I assume it still means brigade-sized Army formations.

As I've noted, options expand when you separate the sensors from the shooters (and link them).

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Everybody Fights the Cold in an Arctic War

Arctic warfare requires equipment and training designed to survive long enough to fight and win. POLARCOM might be needed to make sure American and allied forces defeat the cold and the enemy.

This goes beyond mere cold weather training for lower latitude battlefields:

Elite combat troops shred their physiques to look like Hollywood hunks. In the Arctic, that can kill you.

The cold eats away at soldiers, who lose on average 3,000 calories a day while on exercises in the Arctic Circle—even while eating full rations and before they have taken part in any strenuous activity.

I think a Polar Command would help learn lessons from allies already proficient in Arctic survival and combat in order to institutionalize the skills and knowledge in the American military and make sure all allies operating there can share the information.

Canada should end its strategic confusion by looking to the real great white north and focusing its attention on the Arctic.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Smart Rifles Require Even Smarter Infantry

Drone counter-measures are being developed and the best way to use the plethora of equipment (and I assume tactics and practices to go along with the equipment) is being examined. The AI-enabled rifle scopes have repercussions outside of countering drones.

This reaction was inevitable despite the panty-flinging directed at FPV drones:

High powered counter-drone targeting scopes for the M4 rifle, tank protecting “cage” armor to create explosions “away” from an armored vehicles under drone attack, tailored EW transmissions designed to disable or “jam” drone swarms and even power-scaled laser weapons  built to incinerate enemy drones …..are all critical topics now being analyzed in great depth by combat experts, weapons developers, Army academics and experienced combat operators at the service’s fast-evolving Counter UAS University at Fort Sill Okla.  

The drone counter-measures are no surprise. Combined arms will expand but remain the core function of ground forces.

But the smart rifle-scope will force infantry to completely change infantry training. I explored this in a USNI Blog article about smart rifles. When the rifle rather than the soldier provides 95% of the aiming ability, training must shift from marksmanship to infantry tactics to maintain close combat superiority over enemies--even irregulars--that will have similar capabilities.

Instead of marksmanship badges, The Army will need tactics badges.

UPDATE: In related news, the British Army wants a new rifle. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Image by the Army from the cited article.

Is It Folly to Hold the First Island Chain?

Is holding the line at the First Island Chain folly that risks our hard-to-replace military assets? The Army, which can't sail or fly away with the same ease as Air Force and Navy assets is perhaps sensitive to this issue more than the other services. 

The larger PLA on interior lines with the ability to hit lines of supply threaten America and its allies: 

“Fading advantages in firepower, distributed forces, and the growing operational reach of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) require an expansion of operational thought,” wrote Maj. Patrick Smith in a recent essay for Military Review, an Army professional publication. “The joint force must consider methods of retrograde to shape advantages in time, space, and force.”

Maybe the problems of War Plan Orange are too great to overcome despite today's different situation. The Army remembers Bataan. And I worry that penny packets of Marine SIFs will repeat that agony. This vulnerability may explain some capabilities that could self-deploy over significant water gaps--to fight or retreat--if necessary.

But some allies whose forces are vital to defeat China can't retreat. And we'd lose one advantage of maintaining forward positions. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Map from the linked Military Review article.

Sh*t Got Rail in NATO

NATO learned that wars can be long and require a lot more ammunition and supplies than they had been prepared to deliver. And of course, delivering those supplies has to be done. Enter the railroads.

Logistics become important when the Sh*t nears the fan: 

Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany are in talks to revive the Iron Rhine railway, a line dating back to the 19th century, aiming to boost military mobility in response to the growing Russian threat. ...

Iron Rhine, which once connected the Port of Antwerp in Belgium to Germany’s industrial Ruhr region, was pivotal for Allied forces during and after World War II. Largely unused for decades, parts of it have been abandoned since 1991.

Note that projects like this count toward the last 1.5 percentage points of the 5% of GDP NATO defense pledge.  

NATO didn't have the logistics to invade Russia. Putin provoked change. And then he provided a sense of urgency. Bravo.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Wonders About a Hard Fall

Russia is stripping troops from other part of the front to reinforce the Donbas front for a fall offensive. Will that work? Will Ukraine exploit that focus by hitting a weakened part of the Russian line? Or will Russia fool us with a big push designed to win the war and not just a battle?

The war goes on. Of note, Russia tried to brush back NATO from the plate with a large drone incursion into Poland, escalating past pressure tactics:

But the flight of multiple Russian drones over Poland this week marks a clear escalation, experts say. NATO responded with overwhelming force.

I suspect none of the drones that were shot down or crashed had warheads. But rather than intimidate NATO into reducing support for Ukraine with a hollow threat to expand the war Russia is already struggling with against Ukraine, this will only speed up NATO efforts to rearm.

Bravo, Putin. You da man. 

Russia is also escalating aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities; Ukraine is escalating aerial attacks on Russian strategic targets. Russia still crawls forward yet its casualty rate had fallen in recent months, seemingly exploiting the thin Ukrainian front line:

Russian territorial gains have become less costly over the last four months compared to Spring 2025 as Russian forces are sustaining a lower casualty rate per square kilometer seized.

Yet Ukraine has mounted some significant local counter-attacks.  

I've read that Russian reinforcements allocated to a Russian fall offensive include a division from the Kherson front. Does that provide Ukraine with an opportunity? 

Is Russia really telegraphing their Big Push?

Russia is massing troops and tanks around the besieged fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, building up heavy forces for what Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher described as a “last, final battle” for the east. But Ukraine isn’t just waiting around for Russia to attack. 

While the Ukrainian ground forces surge reserves into the Pokrovsk sector, the Ukrainian air force, drone branch and special services are bombarding the gathering Russian troops with drones and cruise missiles.

Ground reinforcement and aerial spoiling attacks are Ukraine's immediate response to Russia's troop movements and apparent intention.

Will Russia break Ukraine's ground forces with a Final Offensive in the Pokrovsk region? 

Or will Russia repeat Iran's 1987 Karbala V offensive intended to finally break the Iraqis after years of bloody Iranian offensives, but which actually broke the Iranians? 

But if Russia's ground forces do break, as I've noted repeatedly Ukraine has to attack to reveal and exploit that possible fact. Iraq was able to do that in 1988 because it had greatly enlarged its army, including expanding the Republican Guard regime protection loyalists into a large offensive force. That was key because much of Iraq's army was optimized to hold their fortifications line and incapable of carrying out offensive mobile operations.

Are we even looking for signs? Or do we take Russian bravado at face value and assume Russia's infantry will one day decide the war--on offense?

If Ukraine holds off Russia's fall offensive to finally win the long battle for eastern Ukraine, a broken Russian army might not be noticed in the relief of Ukraine not breaking. Could Ukraine launch a counteroffensive to exploit a culminated and possibly broken Russian army in the east?

I have speculated that Ukraine and NATO surely aren't counting on Ukraine remaining on the strategic defensive just exhausting Russia. I'd expect more in strategic thinking. And with NATO's help, Ukraine did build nine new brigades to attack in summer 2023. So Ukraine could do it again. And if the lesson is that new brigades need more than half a year of training, we've had more than two years pass since the failed summer 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

Is Ukraine preparing for such an offensive with its newly formed corps formations?

While Russian exhaustion could be how the war ends, I can't believe Ukraine's commanders and their NATO friends aren't trying to figure out how Ukraine could seize the initiative somewhere and launch a counteroffensive that will achieve a decisive victory on one section of the front.

Or at least a significant counter-attack to achieve a significant victory over those offensives such as the Poktrovsk region and drive the Russians back from several months worth of advances.

While I mentioned the Pokrovsk region in that post, I speculated that a post-Kursk (1943) style counteroffensive might cross the Dnipro River against a weaker Russian defensive line suffering from the effects of Ukraine's efforts against supplies and Crimea infrastructure:

After two years of rebuilding its army after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, could Ukraine be preparing for a river assault at the distant end of Russia's supply lines? With perhaps supporting operations across the now-dry Kakhovka Reservoir that may by now be able to handle the movement and supply of significant forces? 

That's my hope for a big win. I think a Pokrovsk region Ukrainian counter-attack would be less decisive as it pushes Russians back to their sources of supplies and reinforcements as well as fortification lines.

Do the Russians have tunnel vision on finally securing all of Donetsk province that Russia has been trying to capture since 2014? I can't help but wonder if the Russians are feinting at Pokrovsk while preparing for a big push elsewhere in the northeast or north. Russia started to take Vienna Kiev in 2022. Maybe they will finally make a serious effort to take the city in 2025. 

Putin pretends Russia could fight forever. He knows Russia can't. Yet Putin hasn't retreated from his objective of total victory. Maybe he will try to achieve total victory so the war just won't go on, week after week. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: Map from Warfare History Network.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Taiwan's Marathon Problem

In case you missed it on Substack: The Oxymoron UGV Enters the Arena

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia is Preparing For a Civil War

In case you missed it on Substack: The Siren Song of Urban Warfare

Somebody smells a (jihadi) grenade. Tip to Instapundit. I've been shocked that jihadis have not struck us at home so long after our defeat in Afghanistan over four years ago.

Invite Taiwan to RIMPAC. It's a step toward driving the PLA into the sea. 

Putin is worried: "there have been 56 deaths of successful businesspeople and officials under strange circumstances since February 2022. Many of them have fallen out of windows. More and more, people who have loyally served Putin’s system are being persecuted, mainly on the grounds of corruption." Hmm.

There is a subset of the right that forget that America fought on the side of the good guys in World War II. Stop that.

I'm not sure what I think about stopping "section 333" defense support, but the bigger picture is pushing Europe to bear more of the financial burden of defending Europe, no? Is the "signal" of ending that program really stronger than the reality of increased European capabilities?

I'm no expert, but that seems epically stupid. Or maybe just ordinary stupid. But still ...

Ten F-35s were deployed to Puerto Rico. 

Soldier killed on rifle range at Fort Wood. I assume the named battalion is a training-only "infantry" unit for administrative purposes at the basic training facility. I was in the 3-10 infantry but was not in any way an infantryman.

Sh*t happens--even to SEAL Team 6. 

Britain chooses quality over quantity for its new tank design. 

Yemen hits Israeli airport with suicide drone. 

Somebody hit Putin's nuke money, Medvedev, with a clue bat, please. Because you're damned right Finland is preparing for war with Russia!  Don't invade Finland and there won't be war.

Ukraine's NATO sanctuary expands. So far Russia limits itself to covert sabotage missions.

China's neighbors arm up and collaborate in response to China's rising power. Never forget that America's military strength allows them to band together rather than seek to be the last swallowed. 

It is somewhat comforting that Taiwanese have a will to resist: "The real obstacle is political polarization." But at the unit of analysis of the country, it may not matter why Taiwan is less prepared to resist an invasion. 

That would be 20% of the incoming: "Ukraine intercepted 150 Russian drones in one night with air defense drones, Zelenskyy said." The prophecy is fulfilled. 

Israel launched a brigade-sized operation in the West Bank after terrorists hit Jerusalem.  

The Army is trying out an Infantry Squad Vehicle-mounted laser designed to defeat small drones and other aerial threats.  

I doubt if this is more than a false spring of friendlier India-China relations. But you have to admit that India wins if China stops capturing Indian territory to maintain friendlier ties. Yet China won't stop.

Knowing the exercises will be observed, I suspect they will be Potemkin Storm disinformation: "Western observers will use Zapad 2025 to gauge the readiness of the Russian military three years after it attacked Ukraine." 

The secretary of defense and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff visited a Puerto Rico Air National Guard base.

As long as firing a non-line of sight missile through the barrel doesn't foul the barrel for shells, I really like a NLOS missile for tanks.

America's allies step up: "A Canadian frigate and Australian destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, prompting protests from China." 

Sadly, jihadis thrive in the anarchy of Somalia: "U.S. Africa Command has now launched more annual airstrikes in Somalia this year than at any time in the organization’s nearly 20-year history." When the locals can't mow the jihadi grass, we need to make good jihadis.

Maybe reward success, eh? "Apparently, members of the U.S. Congress are discussing recognizing Somaliland as a state separate from Somalia. This would be a change in policy." Puntland has work to do. Formal Somalia is experiencing a dead cat bounce lately. Ethiopia would like an independent Somaliland.

[Cue foreboding music]: "President Vladimir Putin [is] viewing the prospect of an army returning en masse as a potential risk he wants carefully managed to avoid destabilising society and the political system he has built, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters." Here we go? 

Have a sense of urgency with AUKUS. Australian infrastructure to support their SSNs will sustain American SSNs, too. And the British if they make the long journey to INDOPACOM.

Will collapsing the Russian economy end Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Can the West collapse Russia's economy? If it can, will China simply prop it up more? And should we want China to expand its support?

Hamas weaponizes Western compassion by deliberately engineering Gazan suffering by stealing food and aid; and using civilians as human shields. And then claiming the suffering is a famine.

An American Army operation other than war in the complex post-World War I Balkans despite isolationist tendencies.

The Army drew 100 M2A3 Bradleys from APS-2 prepositioned stocks for a brigade's rotation into Poland. Good practice.

American home and business security systems are compromised by Chinese equipment. Could China distract America on the eve of war by opening all the doors and publicizing this on TikTok to start flash mobs for theft and home invasion?

Ah, science: "Comprehensive national power (CNP) is a central framework through which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) measures its progress toward key strategic objectives." Does China accurately measure the correlation of forces? That is irrelevant if the CCP believes it has a scientific basis to attack.

Putin bows deeper to Xi and increases Russia's vassal status. How low can Putin bow?

Stories about a Ukrainian soldier pretending to be a Russian soldier to kill Russian troops are celebrating a war crime. Yes, Russia's war crimes are multiple orders of magnitude worse. But I refuse to celebrate when Ukraine does it.

Is China showing off its powerful Better-than-an-alliance no-name grouping? It is certainly not a China-Russia-North Korea alliance. It is China showing off its vassals. Which is useful to China as long as it has the power to compel obedience. 

OH NO! Not terrorist negotiators! "The Israeli army announced Tuesday that the Air Force launched a precise strike on Hamas's senior leadership in Qatar, with the Palestinian group claiming the IDF targeted negotiators." 

OH NO! "A French [debt] default, as an eventual result of a political limbo, could shatter Europe’s economy, dim the EU’s global star, and even dismantle the Union. " Anyway. But the threat is not imminent. 

Survivors' pucker factors skyrocket: "Hamas said on Tuesday that five of its members had been killed in an Israeli attack in Doha, including the son of Hamas's exiled Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya." It's a good start. Did Israel open up Pandora's Box, however? Or did that ship sail when Qatar hosted terrorists?

Yes, Alger Hiss was a State Department spy for the Soviet Union. 

The U.S. military presumably detected the Israeli strike force before it hit Hamas in Qatar in time to alert the White House. 

CRS report to Congress on United States Strategic Command. 

The American Reaper drone is apparently capable of air-to-air combat. 

It is interesting that Air Force special forces practiced capturing an airfield. I guess the 82nd Airborne Division, Army Rangers, and Marine Expeditionary Units aren't enough. I don't like blurring service boundaries this much.

Is the Army encroaching on Space Force responsibilities? Or is Space Force failing to provide the Army with space capabilities? And if all services need to be in space, just what does Space Force do here?

The Philippines urged smaller nations to work together to stop China's subliminal offensive to expand territory it controls.

The president of Palau says China is trying to weaken the country. 

FFS: "[The F-35] has encountered another batch of upgrade inadequacies with expensive and time-consuming fixes – and the actual and potential damage to U.S. defense capabilities is very real." It's still a good plane. But good grief. And yeah, I was skeptical about a single-source engine.

Did Russia deliberately attack Poland with drones in a shot across the bow? And is that a cause to invoke NATO's Article V? If so, Russia's covert attacks already justified Article V. But Article V is not an automatic declaration of war. And Article IV talks may be enough.

In what alternate world of unicorns and candy canes does energy-exporting Russia have any interest in a stable Middle East. Being "passionate" about peace (seriously, it's in her bio) is irrelevant.

China, but with warm beer? Seriously, what was Vance even talking about?

How to avoid another civil war in Syria? Avoiding a civil war requires accepting an Islamist government, of course. "Reformed" indeed. 

Before we discuss what Lebanon's disarmament of Hezbollah could mean for Gaza, let's see how Lebanon's government does the job. And see if Israel is given the space to defeat Hamas. 

Some F-22s are getting technology and weapons upgrades. 

The Phalanx CIWS is being updated, I assume to shoot down small drones in defense of ships and land bases. 

When the Philippines told America to leave Subic Bay after the Cold War, we left. Now, we--and others--are back as China threatens the Philippines and its government is willing to resist. 

Despite much talk that Putin is getting away with murder since the Alaska meeting--with people losing their sh*t over the likely drone attacks on Poland (and I wonder if they had warheads)--I suspect Trump is quietly working to squeeze Russia militarily and economically. 

The Hudson Institute recommends eight targets that Ukraine should smash up to really cripple Russia's warfighting capabilities. 

Putin praised Kim Jong-Un at the Peking meeting, and Xi elevated Un's profile while possibly accepting North Korea's nuclear ambitions. The great game is on. 

Poland responded to the drone incident by moving some troops closer to the border with Belarus where Zapad-2025 exercises scheduled to be held. Are Belarusians willing to be used by Putin to intimidate--and one day to attack--NATO? 

I'm not going to assume that Charlie Kirk was assassinated by a left wing lunatic. We live in a big country and you never can tell. But if his murder is political, we need our own Je Suis Charlie resolve against political violence. And we mustn't let it fade as the French allowed it.

I don't assume social media posts pledging war after Kirk's murder are genuine. It is too easy to stand in the middle of social media and throw matches in both directions. Keep calm and react coolly. I remember the 1970s. Thank God we didn't have social media then. We can trust the government to investigate.

NATO's response to the Poland drone incident doesn't have to be kinetics. It can be more long-range weapons for Ukraine. Or more aggressive counter-intelligence to roll up Russian intelligence assets. Or something else that hurts Russia while we smile at them across a table.

At least some of the Russian drones that entered Poland's air space were decoy drones, and so without warheads. I suspect all we be found to be unarmed. But it sure seems deliberate.

We will need to keep some old Minuteman III nuclear missiles in operation until 2050. 

Russia's Zapad exercise that includes Belarus is under way. The last one was in 2022 just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Dreams come true: "Europe’s defense and autonomy were front and center in Wednesday’s State of the European Union address by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen." EU "strategic autonomy" is a code word for ejecting America from Europe.

"Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang are far from forming a cohesive bloc, the sources said." There is no honor among the Axis of Steal.

"What if China’s global port empire isn’t the master plan Washington fears, but a patchwork of messy deals shaped as much by local politics as Beijing’s ambitions?" I'd say, I believe it. 

The Saudis are frustrated with subsidizing Egypt's anti-free market, debt-generating machine. How long will Egypt be Saudi Arabia's military ally? Who might step in to subsidize Egypt? 

Are Europeans the baddies on free speech? Sadly, absolutely. 

What the Hell is going on in Nepal? "Curfews now cage the cities, and soldiers line the streets." And how are India and China maneuvering around this crisis? 

While this assault rifle-equipped Russian FPV drone could be useful for counter-drone work, it seems rather poor for ground support.  

CRS report to Congress on the PLA.

FFS: "The U.S. Army mismanaged equipment stockpiles for U.S. Central Command, according to a recent Department of Defense Inspector General audit." 

F-35s could get some 6th generation upgrades. Just talking, so far. Straighten out the F-35s we have right now, though, okay?

Will technology make submarines vulnerable in a transparent sea? If so, American SSBNs at least will have a lot of ocean to maneuver in. Eventually we'll need protected bastions, however. 

Should mines be delivered by missiles in a contested air environment? The author suggests ASROC adaptations. But would ASurROC be better?

Well, yes, sh*t happens. But we have a Thucydides pressure valve to vent steam.

No mere treaty can limit Russian nuclear weapons. Because Sir Nukes-a-Lot needs them too much. 

Seriously, dudes? Worse than during World War I? World War II? The Suez Crisis? Vietnam? Ostpolitik? The Reagan administration's military build up? The first Trump term that was Armageddon? LOL. Trans-Atlantic relations will be fine.

Has four+ decades of the Islamic Republic of Iran dealt a death blow to Islamic belief in Iran? Big, if true. Bigger would be if it spread to the rest of the broader Shia world. Biggest if it spreads to the dominant Sunni world. 

Interesting: "Indonesia has embarked on its most comprehensive military restructuring in decades[.]" It includes improving air and naval components. Funny that Indonesia never felt threatened during America's long naval dominance. But sure, Indonesia is "non-aligned."

I never understood why the Ultra-Orthodox in Israel were exempted from military service. 

Israel and Syria continue to talk about a security deal. 

The Houthi still attack Israel with missiles. 

A mercenary storm is gathering? No. That storm already hit. 

Israel hit Hamas leaders in Qatar using aircraft flying over the Red Sea and used air-launched ballistic missiles. Huh. 

Russia must be desperate to risk war with NATO with their drone incursion stunt. Stupidity on a grand scale in Moscow. What is their major malfunction?

Who wins a war over Taiwan? I'm really going to want to see the Definitions Section before answering that. 

Oh please, Israel never had the world to lose. All Israel can do is be secure enough to compel the world to accept it. Because if Israel is too weak to protect itself, the world won't rescue Israel.

Collateral damage to Russia in the Caucasus from Putin's insane drive for glory in Ukraine. 

Yes, Russia waages war on the West. Russia has been at war a long time. And at long last, the West is acting like Russia is at war with it. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings. 

Indeed: "'hybrid warfare' has served to obscure Russia’s nature as a revisionist, imperialist, and nuclear-armed adversary." As I wrote of Crimea 2014 in Army magazine, "Hybrid warfare in that case was simple: Russia attacked Crimea. Russia denied attacking. And the West went along with Russia's fiction." 

Can Ukraine decisively harm Russia's energy supplies? 

Five reasons the A-10 must be retired. Honestly, my issue has never been about the platform. It has been a matter of whether the Air Force would prioritize close air support that the A-10 built for that mission represented. 

The U.S. stands with the Philippines over China's aggression at Scarborough Shoal.  

The U.S. wants Europeans to stop buying Russian oil before imposing heavy sanctions on Russia. Europeans will not do that any time soon. 

The Insatiable Desire for Information

No matter how much surveillance technology improves, you never have enough information. Yet commanders must act before it is too late to succeed.

The commander of Ukraine’s 82nd Air Assault Brigade which participated in Ukraine's August 2024 offensive into Russia's Kursk province faced a surprise after his troops advanced into Russia:

Voloshyn said Ukrainian intelligence had vastly underestimated the number of Russian troops in Kursk and probably “wouldn’t have even gone forward if we had known.”

You never have enough information to make plans. And you never will. Yet a good commander takes what he has and makes decisions without waiting for all gaps in knowledge to be filled and to verify all that he thinks he knows. 

Because an enemy with sufficient information that acts quickly and is able to adapt as new information comes in will stagger your forces. And make obsolete all the precious information you were collecting, poring over, and pondering to formulate the perfect plan considering all possible problems. Don't forget the staff officers who support the commander:

To win in large-scale combat, divisions require agile battle rhythms that support informative and collaborative running estimates to empower decision-makers to make timely and risk-informed decisions that maximize the effects of all elements of combat power at the decisive place and time. 

So fingers crossed on learning the right lessons:

NATO allies are expanding efforts to connect their technology and weapon systems, standardize data processes and induce more flexibility in combat formations to prepare for future conflicts[.]

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

China's Barge-on-Stilts Isn't a "Game Changer" Invasion System

China doesn't need to build a "game changer" amphibious warfare system to invade Taiwan. But every little bit adds up.

From the Well, Duh files:

Since March, China has been making a splash with manoeuvres off its south coast involving a line of odd-looking barges with retractable legs that work like giant stilts.  ...

But analysts in Taiwan say that, for the moment, the barges are not helping China much in achieving a capability to invade the island. 

Obviously they aren't intended as a forcible entry enabler. Duh. The article even notes this further down. The barges are one more means to move PLA forces across the Taiwan Strait. Think of them not as the key system to crack Taiwan's defenses but as more grains of sand in the invasion beach China is creating.

In related news:

Changle and Xiang’an International are now military lily pads for large-scale air and drone attacks and airborne and air resupply operations against Taiwan.

U.S. sources note other activity that certainly looks like preparation for an attack.

Oh. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: The image is from the first article.

Canada at a Strategic Crossroads

Does Canada even recognize who its enemies are? Do that before rebuilding the military. FFS, the "51st state" taunt was political and not geopolitical. Get over it. Be a member and defender of the West.

Canada has not really adapted to the new era of great power competition:

Mired in the turbulence of shifting geopolitical tides and revived great power competition, Canada stands at a crossroads, this time on the question of whether to pursue membership in strategic partnerships like the Quad and AUKUS. These anti-China coalitions — created to balance against China’s rising power — may look tempting, but they mean engaging in strategic competitions that do not directly affect Canadians while limiting the country’s sovereignty. Instead of picking sides with the US and Europe in their geopolitical horse-trading, Canada should pursue a truly independent foreign policy, one centered on narrow self-interest. 

One, I find it interesting that Canada supposedly has no interest in defeating the Nexus of Evil; and instead should focus on their own sovereignty, social welfare, being an international "honest broker", peacekeeping (oh?), and maintaining trade with China. 

Focusing on such "narrow self-interest" actually counts on somebody else actually protecting Canada from those who hate the West. 

I think Canada could serve itself and its allies by simply not stinking on ice. Be able to project power into the Arctic and we'll all be fine. Indeed, if Canada can't at least do that, its sovereignty in far northern Canada is simply lines on a map.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Putin Likes Big Booms, and He Cannot Lie (About That)

Russia leans even more heavily on nuclear weapons for its territorial defense.

The Russians like nukes. They like to threaten perceived enemies with them. Even tiny Norway.

Russia already violated the INF treaty on limits to less-than-intercontinental nuclear weapons. And now it has officially quit, blaming American plans:

Russia will no longer abide by a defunct treaty prohibiting the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, the country’s Foreign Ministry announced on Monday.

But Washington has accused Moscow of violating the pact for over a decade, and Russia has been known to use missiles with ranges banned by the treaty during its war against Ukraine.

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow “no longer considers itself bound” by its “previously adopted self restrictions” under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, noting that the United States was moving to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia.

I suspect Russia's withdrawal from the INF treaty is based on China's growing nuclear arsenal. Not everything is about America. 

And blaming America and NATO is a convenient Russian excuse to avoid openly recognizing the threat China poses to Russia's territorial integrity. Especially now after immolating Russia's ground forces in Ukraine, nukes are even more vital for Russian defense.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the meme with imgflip.com.

Smart Cities are Dumb as Rocks

Should the Army consider how to fight in wired "smart cities"? After the first hour of fighting kills electricity and starts turning the city into rubble, how smart will the city be?

Oh? 

The increasing adoption of data-driven urban technologies reshapes how cities operate—but this ongoing transformation is still commonly overlooked in US doctrine and training. Military experts note that the modern city constitutes “the least understood of potential conflict environments.” 

As cities evolve into digital terrains, the failure to adapt military understanding and readiness to this new urban reality poses blind spots.

Smart cities will be turned into dumb rubble by high explosives. Adapt to that.  

I say the Army should avoid them. And if you bring up the need to fight in megacities, which one would that be? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Pursues a Reason to End

Even if Putin won't end the war short of glorious and obvious victory despite the costs, could Russia decide to override Putin's personal interest in avoiding being strung up by his heels by angry Russians when they see the price of ending the war that Putin started short of that ideal?

The war goes on. And summer approaches its end. Ukraine seemingly survives a fourth summer where the ground is amenable to rapid movement should a breakthrough be achieved. Although in the planned autumn offensive, Russian exploitation might be on foot. Unless Russia really has an equipped reserve force earmarked for the war and not for "other contingencies."

And as the prospect of the war going on into 2026 seems all too likely, an interesting theory makes the rounds these days:

Short of something Putin could call a victory, continuing with the war on Ukraine is useful for the Russian president. To end the conflict abruptly could imperil his regime, as a rapid shift out of a war economy would raise the prospect of some dangerous sociopolitical infighting. And, according to Ella Paneyakh, a sociologist and research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, this would trigger “cruel and vicious competition for diminishing resources at every level of society.” War is also helpful in justifying political repression — patriotism can be a helpful tool.  

We'll just set aside the author's brief needless detour into TDSville to address the subject at hand. 

Au contraire, Putin certainly wants the war to end. He wants it to end with victory, however, fearing an end without clear victory. I don't think "something Putin could call a victory" is enough. Perhaps enough Russians would buy a full-court press of state propaganda to keep the rumbling to a dull roar. 

Or be relieved enough that the war is over to pretend they won or not care they "won" a Pyrrhic victory or even lost.

But would Russia's elites accept that Putin should be protected for taking them along for his blazing Viking funeral ride with nothing but pain to show for it? It could spark an open civilian coup. Or a military revolt. Or something subtle--like Putin falling out of a window or going on a hunting trip with Andrei Dickovich Cheneyskyy. Naturally followed by a warm state funeral honoring the great leader who "strove to restore Russian glory." 

So sad, really, eh, comrades?

Trump offered Putin a way out of the war for Russia that Putin refused because he wants his three-week march across Ukraine, albeit three and a half years later than he initially expected in February 2022.

Can we encourage Russia punish Putin for that decision? The author does have a point that we don't know how long Trump will grant Putin time to end the war with a deal as good as he's ever going to get short of winning Putin's bet that somehow Ukraine will suddenly collapse. 

But surely somebody in Russia will want to claim that deal even if Putin refuses. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Small Drones Cope With Stalemate

In case you missed it on Substack: The Main Enemy

In case you missed it on Substack: Hey! APD!! APD!!! APD!!!!

In case you missed it on Substack: Victory Through Air Power Rises Again

The European Union's open borders policies essentially created the migrant crisis that threatens numerous European countries. Will the EU step in to solve it? That would be consistent with its longstanding practice of creating/imagining and exploiting a crisis.

The importance of infantry in combined arms operations. Yes. And yes. 

A call for the U.S. to embrace AUKUS. Endorsed. Although I doubt AUKUS is the CCP's worst nightmare.

I am giving the administration time to sort the wheat from the chaff, but I hope it is a one-year-only decision for DOD leadership to skip the British-organized Pacific Future Forum held on a British carrier visiting Japan.

Modern technology makes this a global problem: "A woman has been burnt to death by a mob in northern Nigeria's Niger state after she was accused of blaspheming against Prophet Muhammad, police have said."

Xi Jinping urged SCO members to "seek common ground". By that he means doing what Xi tells them to do, as proper vassals must in the China Dream. 

At least Bulgaria is importing workers from the less, ah ... excitable ... parts of the Islamic world.

China might try to turn the undersea terrain around the Paracel Islands into a submarine trap. That would help turn it into a SSBN sanctuary.

Israel's long war to destroy Hamas continues with a drive into Gaza City under added (unfair) scrutiny at home and abroad. Napoleon's advice is in order: When you set out to take Gaza City, take Gaza City. 

The Houthi fired at an Israeli-owned tanker in the Red Sea. 

The wreckage of Titanic was found because the Navy funded the project in order to find out if the Soviets had sunk the USS Scorpion and the USS Thresher submarines, the only U.S. nuclear subs ever lost. 

Sh*t got real in Germany. Heeding my advice, eh? 

I don't know what we're doing in the Caribbean, but pucker factors and hopes are rising in Venezuela. 

An Army massed balloon exercise?

I sure hope that the AI speeding up effective battle manager decision-making doesn't hallucinate. Also, Patton would slap whoever coined the term "battle manager." 

An appropriate temporary mission for the National Guard in WDC: "provide security, not direct law enforcement, and to be a 'reassuring presence.'" 

I've mentioned the joint U.S.-British effort for drone defense that includes cheap smart sights-based small arms anti-drone capabilities. But the comparison of IEDs to FPV drones is intriguing. Remember the "flying IEDs" Iran developed during the Iraq War? A.k.a. IRAM. 

I have my doubts that PLA exoskeleton devices won't freeze up in the Himalaya Mountains. 

Some brave and outnumbered Israeli soldiers prevented Hamas from capturing Camp Yiftah, a key objective in the October 7, 2023 rape, murder, and kidnapping invasion of Israel. Too many soldiers checked out of the desperate fight, however.

A farcical declaration of Israeli genocide is added evidence that Israel should complete the destruction of Hamas while it can. If Hamas survives this war, in the next war Hamas starts the Hamas fanboys and girls in the West will immediately raise the cry of "genocide" to protect the terrorists. 

Deadly earthquake in Afghanistan.

This is another fantasy solution to Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. A good-enough deal starts with the end of the mullah regime. 

A new Navy LCU to put Marines on beaches. 

A new Navy LCAC to put Marines on beaches. 

A new 81mm "shoot and scoot" mortar for the Marines that requires just two troops. If memory serves, this is a company-level weapon.

CRS report to Congress on hypersonic weapons.

Upgrading America-Poland arms sales procedures? Well, Poland is the new Army center of gravity in Europe.  

Russia is buying time and trying to weaken Western resolve to support Ukraine. Is Putin's strategy about to founder on America's (uncertain) deadline? 

I endorse America's "special relationship" with Britain. But (tip to Instapundit) every day the British government validates Vice President Vance's warning. You can take Britain out of the EU but you can't take the EU out of Britain, apparently.

The lies about losing the Afghanistan campaign.  We lost. We chose to predictably lose. There were other mistakes but that decision was key. We pretended it was a success. And accountability stopped with dead Americans holding a weak perimeter at Kabul's airport. No book tour for the bullet stoppers.

South Korea says 2,000 North Korean troops have died fighting for Putin; and that more North Korean troops are going to war. 

That is certainly helpful for CENTCOM: "In July 2025, Saudi Arabia’s first Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile unit achieved full operational status."

An overdose of HE: "President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. has carried out a strike in the southern Caribbean against a drug-carrying vessel that departed from Venezuela." 

Apache helicopters demonstrated the ability to defeat small drone attackers. That's good. But as with carriers, do the helicopters provide enough value to be worth the extra protection? It depends on how much the value of small drones drops.

Hello: "U.S. Navy and Marines are conducting an amphibious landing training exercise in southern Puerto Rico." 

The Coast Guard will get large MQ-9 drones. 

Ukraine will get new M117s designed for the former Afghanistan military. 

Japan's defense budget set a record. Until next year. 

China is working on a road-mobile ICBM. If parades can be believed. They don't "reveal" anything. They show what the CCP wants advertised. And don't show what the CCP doesn't want seen.

It is more likely that America would send more troops to help Poland than to withdraw what is there. 

Italy says it won't count its planned bridge to Sicily as defense spending to meet the 5% NATO target. Really? I find it hard to believe that resolve will last.

Are Taliban failures to respond to the earthquakes and deaths with any apparent competence or concern "awakening" resistance? 

Is it just me, or does it look like Iran infiltrated a genocide scholars group to use it as a weapon against Israel? Tip to Instapundit.

The U.S. wants much cheaper anti-missile missiles. 

American and Taiwanese defense officials met in Alaska. 

Yes, way too many American elites spied for the Soviet Union early in the Cold War. Dismissing the "Red Scare" as paranoia obscured that fact. Bravo, commies. Well played.

Hmmm. I don't think the Cold War containment policy was as resolute across the West and across time as the author remembers it. But sure, don't try to bribe Russia. Make them offer concessions. "Reset" is only possible if Russia seeks Western help to contain China.

With an irrelevant digression into the Russian 1916 Brusilov Offensive that was accidental and never replicated, this author asks if we are in the World War I Western Front "1918" in the Winter War of 2022, in that the end for Ukraine could be nearer than we think.

Creating the bog of war to slow down Russia. 

This author acts as if "snap back" sanctions on Iran are real and that Europeans are determined to impost them. I have strong doubts on both.

Is China's rise the fulfillment of an old prophecy? That once powerful China could regain power is hardly spectacular. And how much is China rising compared to foes? I sure don't see a China-India-Russia bloc forming.

Back to the Department of War? I don't care. The original name implied land war was rare and an army only lasted long enough to win. Making the War Department the DOD emphasized ongoing defense preparations. Now we want to imply we will pound you until we win and then go home. 

Golden Dome requires reinvigorated Arctic defense equipment. So Canada is important. 

New Army troops will rotate into the border protection mission. 

Venezuelan fighter planes flew near an American warship in the Caribbean Sea. 

WDC National Guard troops are being told to stay in position through December. 

The Pentagon wants alternative to GPS that aren't space-based and so at risk from anti-satellite capabilities. 

Macron says 26 nations signed up to contribute troops to a coalition to reassure Ukraine in a peace deal. Good. I don't think any nation that won't send troops should join. The numbers just paralyze without providing reassurance. Let others offer help from outside the group. 

Second Thomas Shoal: "Filipino forces transported food, fuel and new personnel to a Philippine territorial outpost in a fiercely disputed shoal in the South China Sea[.]"