Even if Putin won't end the war short of glorious and obvious victory despite the costs, could Russia decide to override Putin's personal interest in avoiding being strung up by his heels by angry Russians when they see the price of ending the war that Putin started short of that ideal?
The war goes on. And summer approaches its end. Ukraine seemingly survives a fourth summer where the ground is amenable to rapid movement should a breakthrough be achieved. Although in the planned autumn offensive, Russian exploitation might be on foot. Unless Russia really has an equipped reserve force earmarked for the war and not for "other contingencies."
Short of something Putin could call a victory, continuing with the war on Ukraine is useful for the Russian president. To end the conflict abruptly could imperil his regime, as a rapid shift out of a war economy would raise the prospect of some dangerous sociopolitical infighting. And, according to Ella Paneyakh, a sociologist and research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, this would trigger “cruel and vicious competition for diminishing resources at every level of society.” War is also helpful in justifying political repression — patriotism can be a helpful tool.
We'll just set aside the author's brief needless detour into TDSville to address the subject at hand.
Au contraire, Putin certainly wants the war to end. He wants it to end with victory, however, fearing an end without clear victory. I don't think "something Putin could call a victory" is enough. Perhaps enough Russians would buy a full-court press of state propaganda to keep the rumbling to a dull roar.
Or be relieved enough that the war is over to pretend they won or not care they "won" a Pyrrhic victory or even lost.
But would Russia's elites accept that Putin should be protected for taking them along for his blazing Viking funeral ride with nothing but pain to show for it? It could spark an open civilian coup. Or a military revolt. Or something subtle--like Putin falling out of a window or going on a hunting trip with Andrei Dickovich Cheneyskyy. Naturally followed by a warm state funeral honoring the great leader who "strove to restore Russian glory."
So sad, really, eh, comrades?
Trump offered Putin a way out of the war for Russia that Putin refused because he wants his three-week march across Ukraine, albeit three and a half years later than he initially expected in February 2022.
Can we encourage Russia punish Putin for that decision? The author does have a point that we don't know how long Trump will grant Putin time to end the war with a deal as good as he's ever going to get short of winning Putin's bet that somehow Ukraine will suddenly collapse.
But surely somebody in Russia will want to claim that deal even if Putin refuses.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Photo from the article.
