So what's up with Turkey these days? Is the caliphate rising?
Does Turkey have an opportunity to rise?
It has a large military and economy that, while only modestly growing, flashes the kind of potential few others in the region can. But more important, it has a massive geopolitical opportunity. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, the United States seeking to reduce its global footprint, Iran suffering losses throughout the region that have been complicated by its internal leadership transition, and Israel reeling from crises at home and abroad, Turkey can exploit these openings in any direction in which it has fundamental interests.
Turkey has exposed its imperial ambitions recalling its Ottoman past. The retreat of Russia from Turkey's borders--long a source of threats to Turkey--is the main factor for giving Turkey an opportunity. America still seems active in the region even if its presence in CENTCOM is less than elevated War on Terror levels and if America is not as dominant in Europe (big if); Iran's problems are temporary whether or not the mullahs fall; and Israel has reduced threats to it from its military campaigns that will eventually end, so I don't really see "reeling."
I worry if Turkey's rise under Erdogan means it will be an Islamist rise with a dream of restoring the Caliphate and supplanting Arab dominance--despite being a tiny minority--of Islam. Still, it isn't all glory on Turkey's path, as the potential is caveated:
Given Turkey’s domestic problems, whether it can capitalize remains to be seen.
We'll see if Turkey makes noises about a role in securing Islam's holy places in Mecca and Medina, as Iran has long demanded as the self-proclaimed voice of the Shia, as a step to leading all of Islam.
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