Victory Forfeited

America didn't need to lose the Afghanistan war. But we chose to do exactly that.

Heartily endorsed:

Contrary to simplistic arguments one hears in the United States, the immediate reason for the Afghan regime’s collapse was not that Afghan soldiers didn’t want to fight for their country. In fact, tens of thousands had fought and died trying to stop the Taliban, only for the US suddenly to withdraw all political and material support for their fight. The regime collapsed because America had decided to get out, the consequences be damned.  

Despite the claims that Afghan security forces would not fight, when America (and NATO and other allies) backed the Afghanistan government, 7,000 Afghan security forces were killed every year fighting the Taliban. Indeed, while American military leadership worried Afghan forces could not sustain that level of casualties, Afghan security forces continued to enlist, fight, and die.

Until we lost a number of troops at the Kabul airport to a jihadi suicide bomber, we hadn't lost a troop in combat in a year and a half. Afghan troops were fighting and dying to kill jihadis, making it one front in what could have been the Global Troubles of mowing the jihadi grass with allies.

They would have continued to do that if we hadn't so visibly walked away from them, predicting the time of their demise after we left. What a shock that so many Afghan forces decided not to be the last one to die at the long end of the American estimates. Predictions of doom were a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There was a danger in leaving after helping Afghan government forces for so long. When we were on our way out in 2013, I worried about the effects of our withdrawal on Afghanistan morale. 

Sadly, just saying that we can win with a reduced Afghan and American presence is not enough to convince people that is the case--even if it is absolutely true. If we are reducing our commitment--and we are, as we must eventually--we shouldn't take the risk of shaking the morale of our friends and bolstering the morale of our enemies by visibly reducing Afghan capacity to fight the Taliban and al Qaeda any time soon. Give the Afghans time to see that things will be fine before we take that step.

That was gradual enough to not lead to dramatic collapse. Afghan forces got the time to see that they weren't doomed. The Biden administration failed to do that.

In 2021, we failed to bridge a danger zone for Afghan morale created by the withdrawal of American forces:

On paper, the Afghan government can hold. But in the real world, fear of death is heightened by the American-led withdrawal. If enough time passes without a general collapse of government morale, the paper balance will win out. 

But the Taliban have a window of opportunity when fear of the unknown without America holding the hand of government forces makes government officials and forces scared enough to preemptively give up.

America decided to lose the war--with a spin that we kind of won that was amazing to behold. Don't be fooled. We screwed the pooch.

America snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

UPDATE: Sure, the Air Force conducted a technically proficient evacuation from Kabul--based on volume rather than getting out our actual friends. But they shouldn't put lipstick on the pig we screwed in Afghanistan the way the Pentagon is shamelessly calling our defeat a year ago the "conclusion of" and the "end of" the war. 

Yes indeed, our secretary of defense wrote, "the Afghanistan war has ended", like we wished it and it was just magically so. 

FFS, how can we learn if we can't even admit out loud we were defeated? Hell, maybe the problem is that too many of our flag officers just don't feel the defeat deep down where it counts. Is simply commanding for a while in a war zone the punch in their ticket for promotion? Is victory or defeat irrelevant for too many?

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

I Can Hardly Wait For Even More Smart Diplomacy®

Iran insists that America decline to enforce the old nuclear deal in order to get a new nuclear deal. If you think the Iranians are insane, you haven't been paying attention. Biden will see nothing and so officially know nothing.

Iran issues an ultimatum:

Iran's president warned Monday that any roadmap to restore Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with world powers must see international inspectors end their probe on man-made uranium particles found at undeclared sites in the country.

Iran denies they have a nuclear weapons program. So Iran says pay no intention to those man-made uranium particles found at undeclared nuclear research sites--plural--inside Iran.

But surely, you say, America wouldn't fall for that. We know Iran is pursuing nukes. Israel provided the documents stolen from Iran. And ... uranium. At undisclosed sites in Iran. Neither of which Iran should have.

First, don't call me Shirley.

Second, Biden will do it because to get that awful 2015 nuclear deal that's exactly what Obama did.

So of course Iran's chief nutball wants the same sort of consideration. What is he? Chopped liver?

And desperate for something that can be spun as a victory long enough to get through the current election cycle before it falls apart in defeat and disaster, Biden will cave. And refusing to have strict verification is the means to prevent discovery of how bad the deal is until it is too late to do any good.

And let's not forget ignoring Iranian ballistic missile development to get the first deal.

I thought moving that inept moron who set the standard for failure, John Kerry, from State Department to wherever he's jetting around these days on taxpayer money would prevent such a farce. But no.

And don't say, as that initial article does, that Trump's withdrawal from the ill-conceived deal set the stage for rising tensions as if it is his fault. Why would Iran cause tensions over a deal that was a shield for Iran's nuclear weapons drive and a shield for stoking mayhem in the region?

The Biden administration has no intention of stopping Iran from doing anything. Their unrequited love is quite astounding. No doubt Kerry thanks God for Blinken every day.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: Gosh, I wonder why Biden won't talk to the Israelis?

America's greatest ally in the Middle East can't even get Joe Biden on the phone as the White House works — through Russia, lest we forget — to negotiate a massive payday for the Iranian regime and more normal relations between the tyrannical regime and the rest of the world.

Fancy that.

The Winter War of 2022 Kind of Culminates

Russia's advances have been small despite the appearance of attacks along the front. Is this the end of Russia's offensive capabilities or just a screen to shield preparations to renew the offensive?

 

The war has seemed to be in stalemate since June. Although Russia has taken significant amounts of Ukraine since invading, even as its offensives have slowed to a crawl. Is it destined to be a "frozen" conflict?

Russia has been unable to gain significant ground with broad but small attacks in the Donbas and scattered attacks in the south. While repeated reports that Russia's offensive is about to culminate--or reach the point when they don't have the strength to continue until reinforced--don't seem to have happened yet, that assessment is complicated. 

Russia has responded to reduced combat power by reducing their offensive from the entire front to the Donbas, and then to just the Luhansk front, and now to broader but small attacks that can't make more than tactical gains. Offensive culmination has been delayed by reducing the scope of attacks. Which has reduced the ability of Russian attacks to achieve anything significant. Is even that reaching its limit or will Russia reinforce to continue attacks at some level just to have the illusion of the initiative?

On that question, did Russia's spring draft fail? If so, how weak are Russia's maneuver companies on the line? And can they recover? New paper manpower expansion may just ... paper over the losses.

On the other side, Ukraine has hurt Russian forces and supply lines but has yet to unleash the long-telegraphed counteroffensive.

The war's outcome is still mostly on the knife's edge, although I think it has tilted, however slightly, toward Ukraine in recent weeks. So it could still go either way depending on what Russia and Ukraine (and its mostly NATO backers) do going forward.

For the next few months I'll still give Ukraine the advantage in being able to generate combat power to change the territorial stalemate. But I don't really know if Ukraine has the power to attack in strength or if Russia has ground forces willing to hold what it has taken.

And if Ukraine can't exploit Russia's apparent exhaustion, Russia will begin to recover. Sometimes size matters. Then the outcome may hinge on whether the West is willing to continue supporting Ukraine.

UPDATE: Interesting:

Russian troops are being forced back in Kherson and partisan activity is growing. Kherson must be liberated before the Ukrainians can go after Crimea. Russia does not have enough troops to prevent that. The Ukrainians are patient and not attempting a reckless and costly offensive. Time is on their side and, while Ukrainian troops get better, Russian troops get worse. 

Time is on Ukraine's side. But for how long will time be on Ukraine's side? 

UPDATE: Speak of the Devil counteroffensive:

"Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region," Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne cited southern command spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk as saying. She confirmed the news minutes later at a briefing.

Although it is all kind of vague. 

UPDATE: More rumors and possible news. Via Instapundit.

UPDATE: Ukraine claims to have broken through Russia's first line of defense somewhere; Russia claims to have defeated an attack, inflicting heavy casualties on the Ukrainians.

UPDATE (Tuesday): The Ukrainian counteroffensive is real enough for ISW to start a separate section on the Kherson counteroffensive starting with this daily assessment. 

UPDATE: Possible invasion results. I'm torn between Ukraine taking Kherson, and leaping the Dniepr River if Russian defenders are in chaos to head toward Crimea before turning toward Melitopol; or a Ukrainian offensive that stops at the river to establish a solid defensive line, switching to an offensive from Zaporizhzhia straight south to Melitopol.

UPDATE (Friday): America helped Ukraine wargame possible counteroffensive scenarios:

In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.

I'm a little shocked that the Ukrainians needed to be reminded to focus their efforts.

UPDATE: Russian units are fighting and not collapsing:

Ukrainian army units pushing toward Kherson in the south are retaking ground held for months by Russia’s invading troops amid extremely fierce fighting, according to Ukrainian soldiers taking part in the offensive.

Russian soldiers seemed well-equipped and were putting up stiff resistance, the Ukrainians said.

But Ukraine's counteroffensive isn't taking much ground yet. Hopefully by intent.

NOTE: ISW updates are available here.

Weekend Data Dump

Reports of rowdy Russian volunteers in Russian towns after their training hours may indicate "Russian military authorities are unwilling to discipline these new recruits, lured into service at great cost and effort. Indiscipline and de facto immunity from discipline during training will very likely translate into a poorly trained and entitled volunteer force that is used to committing crimes and getting away with it."

Killing Zawahiri was good, but with "the Taliban’s continuing close relationship with Al Qaeda and the deterioration of Afghanistan into a terrorist sanctuary, the United States needs to rethink its counterterrorism strategy." No! Way!

I'm sure leaving billions in weaponry there won't be a problem.

Well yes, China is preparing for war. The pace has been astounding. But so do we. So do others to some extent. The question is will China actually start a war any time soon. I just don't know. And if so, who is the target? Will it use the threat to bully victims into submission? Or will China be trapped into war between its own rhetoric and the people's engineered rage?

Left wing Democrats and their media allies have taken the demonization and "othering" of Republicans to dangerous levels. It's a 24/7 2-minute hate. Differences of opinions are now evil. Truly, it is a crime against language to think "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." Tip to Instapundit.

Determined to lose again: "The Administration has dropped one crucial demand after another in pursuit of a [nuclear] deal, any deal with Iran, no matter how crazy or dangerous. Two of the most egregious retreats occurred in the last few days." Well, unrequited love demands no less.

Erdogan hopes to counter a tanking Turkish economy with success abroad.

Can China blockade Taiwan? Can Taiwan endure and resist? I've long said Taiwan needs more than small "porcupine-style" missile boats to resist China in the Taiwan Strait. Will America and its allies help Taiwan?

I find it odd that America is providing 16 105mm howitzers to Ukraine. Those are small guns with short range. Are they for Ukrainian air mobile assaults to haul some artillery with them as they leap behind Russian lines--perhaps for a river-crossing operation--and are out of range of ground force artillery?

The European Union may have member countries train Ukrainian soldiers in European countries. Why those countries need the EU to take credit for what the countries will do is beyond me. Actually I do know.

Trump should build a home on the U.S.-Mexico border. Biden will send so many armed federal law enforcement agents there that no illegal immigrants will dare cross.

Reviewing the clusterfuck of Biden's Afghanistan skedaddle debacle. The U.S. is paying the Taliban $300,000 per flight to get Americans and Afghan allies out of the country even now. Which is good because what alternative do we have after abandoning our people and allies who fought and died every day to kill Taliban and other jihadis there? Tip to Instapundit.

More on China's push to put security forces in Pakistan to protect Chinese assets. Pakistanis are getting worried about Chinese influence.

The X-37B space plane and China's version.

China is trying to flip Thailand. Last week I wondered why our longstanding ally was exercising with the Chinese military.

The Navy's top surface warfare officer wants 6 LCS operating in the Western Pacific. I agree.

Well I certainly hope America doesn't let Russia know every weapon or system we send to Ukraine.

Did the sacrifice of Sri Lanka by climate change fanatics' Green policies result in the departure of a Chinese signals intelligence ship from a Sri Lankan port?

Only if China's rulers believe economic growth is the most important thing at that moment of deciding whether to go to war to maintain the CCP monopoly on political power: "China’s economic security in a multilateral economic system is still a major guarantor of economic and political security to the rest of the world."

Is it true that the Chinese DF-26 "carrier killer" ballistic missile is an overblown threat that the Navy can handle? Beats me. China is certainly working on succeeding. How are we breaking the kill chain? Even if we can, what about India? Or Russia?

Russia's new naval doctrine is an amazingly delusional caviar ambition for a country with a potato budget. It only makes sense if it simply conceals a Russian pivot to resist China before time runs out.

FFS, is our government so big that it inadvertently undermines American prosperity and security (when it isn't deliberate, of course)? Tip to Instapundit.

Russia's economy was rattled but not shattered by Western sanctions. I suspect that the foundation for that apparent coping is getting thinner and may end that relative success given time. But while useful to harm Russia's war production doesn't seem likely to break Russia.

Germany will provide Slovakia with 15 tanks while Slovakia sends 30 old Soviet infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

Uh oh, the Biden administration is pretending that Iran is offering actual concessions to get a new nuclear deal. If Iran is no longer demanding something, Iran has found a way around that problem. While our State Department gets to pretend the concession hurts Iran's nuclear weapons drive. Win-win.

The Syria multi-war is still going on at a much lower level. Can Iran be driven out?

Well, as much as I hoped otherwise, Turkey under Erdogan seems to be doing its best to alienate its NATO treaty allies by helping Russia cope with Western sanctions. 

After making the best of a bad MiG-29 inventory, Ukraine would like F-16s: "The air war over Ukraine is a tactical win for Ukraine so far, but that was costly, with 47 fighters or attack aircraft lost. Twenty of these were MiG-29s and four Su-27 fighters plus twelve Su-24 and Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Russia lost four Su-24s, 13 Su-25s, ten Su-34s (successor to the Su-24) and one Su-35 (un upgraded Su-27 fighter)."

Good Lord, the Russians are actually kidnapping Ukrainian children: "Russian government sources confirmed that Russia is bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt them."

Last October I noted Serb tensions with Kosovo. In February I noted that Serbia was arming up; and in April China delivered anti-aircraft missiles to the Serbs. Are the Serbs planning to revive the Kosovo war? Is Russia pushing this to distract NATO? Tip to Instapundit.

The Russians lie with such ease: "Russia's advance has slowed down in Ukraine, but this is a deliberate decision to avoid civilian casualties, according to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu."

Huh: "Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has somewhat surprisingly congratulated the Ukrainian people on their Independence Day."

Yes, wokism with its major Green component is a religion (via Instapundit). What was once called "blasphemy" is now "hate speech" and "denialism." The West isn't becoming less religious. It's just that a lot of people have a fundamentalist and intolerant faith that rejects traditional Christian religions. FFS, these people "speak in tongues" and make no sense. Now go and emit no more.

"Anti-war" groups have a dilemma with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I'd have more respect for them if they were flocking to Ukrainian cities to act as human shields.

Friggin' lasers on destroyers.

China is keeping up military activity around Taiwan long after Pelosi left Taiwan. Is this still pressure or is it preparation?

How did Ukraine attack Crimean bases? I agree that long-range missiles are the likeliest explanation. Either local conversion or imported missiles from someone other than America--which has denied supplying ATACMS. Does Russia have incentive to hide the evidence of such weapons to avoid panic in rear area echelons? 

Working on the deterrence calculation variables.

Biden ordered the military to conduct strikes on Iran-backed forces in Syria. Resolve? Hah! This is just a means to get Iran to agree to another American-led financial infusion for Iran. And to get that, all Iran has to do is pretend it won't pursue nukes by agreeing to a toothless deal. And then America can pretend to believe Iran. It's the same negotiating process as before. And the ratification debate will be similar, too.

I understand this is something North Korea works hard to stoke with local fanboys, but still. On August 14, "Seoul was the scene for the largest public demonstration in decades against the U.S. military presence in South Korea." South Korea seems generally solid as an ally. But at some level I worry.

China is still struggling to make advanced combat aircraft. But they've made tremendous progress. Also, the J20 is a stealth plane from the front only.

Russia has ways to alleviate the impact of Western sanctions. Can they be blocked?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is exacerbating divisions between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians in Estonia. I've read that the divisions are overstated. But is war changing that? Narva, a city on Russia's border, is 85% ethnic Russians. I worry about what Russia might try there.

Putin claimed he  restored Russia's glory and invading Ukraine would reflect that glory. Clearly that rise was a "dead cat bounce" and Russia remains the sick, angry man of Europe.

This piece (tip to Instapundit) essentially discusses what can be called "shaping" operations that Ukraine is conducting in the south prior to an offensive. And I too mentioned advancing to the Dniepr River line and then attacking south from Zaporizhzhia, which if it reaches the Sea of Azov puts Russian troops in a bad position.

I hope Iran has dealt a nuclear deal a fatal blow. But I know Biden will double down on concessions to get a deal. No deal is better. A deal won't stop Iran from going nuclear. But a deal will enrich Iran and allow us to pretend Iran isn't going nuclear.

On paper, the Russian armed forces will be expanded in 2023. On paper. Declaring the puppet forces of Luhansk and Donetsk to be in the Russian army would help a bit. Hell, what's the current strength?

Via Instapundit, indeed: "Racial segregation is back in the US. That old foul practice that most of us thought had been done away with by the 1964 Civil Rights Act has been given some politically correct spit-and-polish. Jim Crow’s gone woke." Some of us have noticed:

A lot of young Russians--300,000 to 3.8 million--have fled Russia because Putin invaded Ukraine. They may not be coming back. Which is kind of funny given Putin feels the need to conquer ethnic Russians/Russian speakers to counter a declining population at home.

Strategypage says that Moqtada al-Sadr is the good guy in the Iraq government-forming drama dragging on over battling corruption. I sure hope so.

Britain announced new military aid to Ukraine. Norway contributed to this. It includes 850 Norwegian-made micro-drones useful for urban combat. Kherson?

The Pentagon warns of Chinese progress in space.

From the Well, Duh files: Israel's prime minister warned the potential Iran nuclear deal won't stop Iran from getting nukes and will enrich Iran.

Belarus riding the Russian tiger.

Approved hate. Tip to Instapundit.

Can the Navy develop "warfighters" who command our surface ships and lead them into battle? I worry.

The Army sees its future rotary aircraft as having a role in INDOPACOM--supporting the Navy, of course. What about having a role in the Army's core competencies in the Asia-Pacific region, as I explored in Military Review?

There will come a time when the American government will need American media to suppress a story for real national security reasons. But the FBI forfeited the trust needed to agree to that in order to protect Joe Biden and his son Hunter, of all people. 

I am highly sympathetic to the people who truly don't make enough money to pay off loans for cosmetology or baking degrees. So why not reduce the maximum income to get some loan relief to $40,000? And then remember that the reason those people had to go to school and take out loans is the outrageous state policies of demanding certification for hair braiding, cutting hair, and a growing list of state-licensed professions that require you to take courses to get a license. Do read it all.

I for one welcome Israel killing Islamic Jihad terrorists. Upset leftists can pound sand. 

Sure, just piss me off more:

The Marines think the Reaper UAV is good for recon and strike missions in support of widely scattered Marines in the Pacific. The Air Force wants something better.

It would be good to correct this problem: "Congress is moving to address the backlog in sending weapons to Taiwan, as well as other potential delays in arms sales to Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand."

Of course we want to minimize civilian casualties when we fight enemies. But I fear the new Civilian Protection Center of Excellence will end up harming the ability to fight in the misguided assumption that civilian casualties will then go down.

For many years, I certainly assumed the retirement of the SR-71 meant Aurora had to exist. 

For Ukraine: Equipment to bolt on any pickup truck and make it a guided rocket launcher carrier. I believe these are 2.75" guided rockets that never really hit the big time (because existing American weapons did the job) despite being good.

Good: "Taiwan proposed on Thursday $19 billion in defence spending for next year, a double-digit increase on 2022 that includes funds for new fighter jets[.]" It is long overdue. 

Australia is hosting littoral warfare exercises with American Marines and others. Hello, South China Sea.

I'm planning to get "cable" TV back soon after more than two years being away. I miss the sports. But I will not keep my TV on news channels like a radio as I used to do. The left just annoys me too much to put that kind of stress on me any more.

I know Europe is in its worst drought in 500 years. This is very bad. But the one 500 years ago was before the internal combustion engine. 

Why are our most left-wing institutions so semi-fascist (or worse)? "Cornell University perpetuates 'settler colonialism, indigenous dispossession, slavery, racism, classism, sexism, transphobia, homophobia, antisemitism, and ableism,' according to a statement posted on its School of Integrative Plant Science’s website." Tip to Instapundit.

Ethiopia's war--now a food blockade, it seems--against its Tigray region continues. Nobody has nukes so it doesn't get much attention. Not even from other African states, it seems.

Australia is hosting "Pitch Black 2022, which includes more than 100 aircraft from 10 nations" in exercises in northern Australia. Closer to China.

The executive summary is that too many of our elites posing as the best and brightest--but really the worst and stupidest--suck at everything but enriching themselves. Tip to Instapundit.

Undermining police protection will push more private security--for those who can afford it. Like I noted:

I find it really interesting that Russia appears to be equipping their rabble volunteer units with good weapons. One, I didn't know Russia had enough to spare. Two, why not send them to the experienced units in combat now? Rabble with expensive weapons leads to dead rabble and burning expensive weapons.

Russia had been putting the burden of dying in its war on non-ethnic Russians. The need for bodies is changing that: "As the onus of partial mobilization shifts to more economically advantaged, densely populated, and better-educated regions of Russia, domestic opposition to recruitment efforts will likely grow."

Cleaning up the unintended and war crime explosives. Apparently, Ukraine has not used landmines. Ukraine signed the landmine treaty ban. Anti-tank mines would have been very useful for Ukraine.

Ukrainian air defenses are going to get an infusion of American and German air defense missiles. They sound great for protecting pontoon bridges across the Dniepr River. But supplying missiles for Ukraine's improved S-300 batteries is still crucial.

Two American cruisers sailed through the Taiwan Strait to defend the waterway's status as international waters in defiance of Chinese claims.

The Israelis did some damage to Iran's efforts to add Syrian terrorists to Hezbollah and Hamas as proxies with rockets to attack Israel.

And Now for Something Completely Different

Moon hangs around. A blade over my head. Reminds me what to meme before I'm dead. Night consumes light and all I dread. Reminds me what to meme before I'm dead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Swarm Missile Defense

Can drone swarms, which are feared for their offensive potential, be adapted for missile defense?

Drone swarms are a growing threat to fixed assets and ground units in the field:

An additional method to fight invading swarms is to employ defending drones. Using defending drones can be helpful as they do not have to be synchronized to still be somewhat effective. Defending drones can destroy some of the invading swarm and they offer the invading swarm more targets which can disrupt the swarm’s mission and blunt its attack. Defending drones can be at risk of receiving friendly fire from other defending drones, but if they are inexpensive, the risk is not as impactful. Still, while potentially effective, using defending drones requires operators to be on standby and is unlikely to defeat an entire swarm without the support of other swarm defense systems.

My entry into the subject in Army magazine suggested combat air patrol drone swarms to lift the burden of shooting down attacking drones from forward small combat units. Platoons and companies don't fight the jets flying high in the blue skies. Why burden them with the job of fighting drones in what I called the "brown skies" low over the battlefield?

I'm only slightly disappointed that the article cited a much more recent article about the combat air patrol drone swarm concept. And that 2021 article didn't even cite my 2018 article.  Although the 2021 article was submitted a month before mine was published. Great minds think alike, I guess. Many people get similar ideas because of the logic of the situation. And some subset of them will publish an article on that. Oh well. I know I miss a lot of good sources outside of my usual reach. And I freely admit that my article was heavy on concept and low on practical issues of implementation. It's at least nice to know that I wasn't feeble-minded to suggest it!

But I digress.

We dream of--but have not engineered--area defensive shields, like electronic warfare barriers, to protect targets in a wide area from incoming missiles, rockets, and even shells rather than destroying them one at a time with expensive ground-based missiles or rapid-fire guns that need reloads. Lasers appear to solve the reload problem. But weather and counter-measures degrade their lethality.

But beyond battlefield utility, could drone swarms with disposable interceptor drones function in a ballistic or cruise missile, rocket, and shell defense role if networked and guided by radar systems that provide precise vectors? Would it be easier to maneuver a plate into the path of a bullet than hitting a bullet with a bullet (or beam)?

With a warning from radars, drones defending a fixed asset, or eventually a ground unit in the field, drone swarms would be released that rise up to have the best-positioned drone in the swarm guided into the path of the incoming threat. Perhaps the air defense drone spreads out arms to let the incoming round impact the drone defender and be disabled, destroyed, or detonated. Perhaps the air defense drone fires a Claymore mine-like weapon into the path of the weapon (assuming it can be designed to avoid too much collateral damage on the ground from falling projectiles. Or maybe it would be HEAT-type salvo.

There are probably articles and defense programs out there already beyond the concept stage, eh? Or maybe I'm feeble minded to suggest this. It could go either way, I admit.

NOTE: War coverage continues here. 

Putin Has More Territorial Ambitions. LOL!

I laugh at the idea that Putin has more territorial ambitions--right now--given his "difficulties" in Ukraine. But yeah, Putin wants more of Russia's former empire back in its control.

Kazakhstan has been a loyal Russian ally. But has rejected Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Is Putin already thinking about "restoring" Kazakhstan to the Russian empire?

Against this backdrop, it’s not surprising that a hastily deleted post by former president—and now deputy chair of the Security Council—Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of northern Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many people. But could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors?

Alienating one of the few countries willing to be associated with Russia post-Ukraine is fairly astounding as an isolated issue. And Russia's military would have problems taking over Kazakhstan even without the beating it has endured in Ukraine.

So it seems unlikely Russia will do much. But if serious, Russia could punish Kazakhstan short of invading even just parts of the country by cutting oil export routes:

By cutting off this key source of income for Kazakhstan, Moscow could also put pressure on the Central Asian state’s main customer, the European Union, demonstrating that a rejection of Russian oil would come with an additional loss for the EU of upwards of a million barrels of Kazakh oil a day. 

Yet even if successful in the short run in bringing Kazakhstan to heel over Ukraine, it warns Kazakhstan to end its reliance on Russia's stranglehold on its key export. In the long run, Russia would be forced to invade Kazakhstan to keep it in line.

Would only taking the northern part be enough if the remaining "free" Kazakhstan resists? Is Russia ready for a counter-insurgency and garrison along its new line of control?

And if Putin starts to take Kazakhstan but doesn't, that raises new and bigger problems of Central Asian states turning to China for security. The other "stans" will be on notice that they, too, are in Russia's sights if Kazakhstan is targeted.

The idea that Kazakhstan is "next" on Putin's hit list is getting way ahead of things given the bleeding Russia is suffering invading its Ukraine. But yeah, it's on the list. I wonder if Belarus will shoot above even Ukraine on Putin's to-do list by drifting away from Russia's grasp. 

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Where the Streets Have No Claim?

Is the claim that taking a city is much harder than other types of defended terrain true? Or is urban warfare no more difficult for the attacker than other types of terrain?

Interesting: 

Urban terrain does not favor the defender more so than other terrain (rolling or rugged). In fact, it appears less.

And in a follow-up post, the author looks at the Quantified Judgment Model:

As can be seen, there is not a lot of difference between Rolling-mixed to Urban to Rugged-Mixed. Clearly there is an advantage to defending in urban terrain, but no more so than other good defensive non-urban terrain.

Yet fighting for a city absolutely takes time and seems to really pile up casualties. 

Armies have preferred to avoid cities when they can. But the expansion of urban footprints seemingly makes it too difficult to bypass these urban areas. The whole "mega-city" craze is built on the need to develop weapons, organizations, and tactics to fight through these presumed casualty sponges:

I'm all on board mapping the Human Terrain of potential conflict zones, including in cities.

But I'm against embracing the mission of fighting in such mega-cities as opposed to being capable of operating within them to achieve narrow objectives when we must to gain the objective of the broader campaign. Cities are army sponges that could suck in more and more of our Army, distracting it from achieving the campaign objective. Germany's Sixth Army learned all about that.

I'm worried we'll gain the ability to pacify cities and be drawn into such meat grinders--they have massive underground terrain, too, you know--simply because we can do the job rather than because we should.

Don't be mesmerized by the bright lights of the big cities. Be capable of fighting within cities rather than assuming that means being capable of fighting for the cities.

I've long been wary of urban warfare. Yet the data says urban terrain isn't actually much more favorable to defenders? How is that possible?

Could it be that urban terrain is simply much more dense than other terrain you have to fight through? 

Assume a ridge or hill provides the same (or even greater) defensive advantage as a city block. But if a defender of a ridge or hill has to fall back, they may need to retreat 5,000 yards to the next defensive high ground position. But a defender in a city block just needs to retreat across the street. Doesn't that make cities more time consuming and expensive in lives to take? 

That might make sense. If you have to fall back 100 miles to the next river to hold off the enemy, you won't do as well killing the enemy and slowing them down than if you only have to fall back 100 feet. Again and again.

Quantity of defensive positions may have a quality all its own. 

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

NATO Expanded to Willing Members

The West did not cause Russia to fear NATO.

Yes:

Former security officials insist that the United States made every effort to integrate Russia, rejecting claims that America 'tried to humiliate' the former Soviet Union. 

"I will go out on a limb here and say that I think everybody from the Clinton administration to the Bush administration, to the Obama administration, to the Trump administration did everything possible to try to integrate Russia into the international system," Former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said Friday at the Aspen Security Forum.

Remember, NATO did not expand east. NATO was invited east. By countries eager to keep Putin from reconquering them:

The Russians are seriously annoying. They could have been part of the West but instead they've decided to just be a thorn in our side out of some strange Cold War nostalgia for their glory days when people feared them.

The proto-thugs in Moscow actually have the nerve to be upset that joining NATO has become fairly popular amongst the formerly Soviet satellite nations and even parts of the old Soviet Union. Instead of wondering why the tender loving attention of Mother Russia scares the crap out of these people eager to join NATO, the Russians are busy whining and blustering even as their military continues to rot and their economy enjoys a temporary oil-fueled bubble that will leave Russia like any other Third World oil exporter--poorer and unfree.

Putin has been eager to restore the Russian/Soviet empire.

Were we to tell those liberated countries that escaped the USSR's grasp that they were condemned to live in a purgatory tainted by once being owned by Russia, forever doomed to reconquest when Russia moved on them? Really? For too many in the West, the West was to be complicit in an updated Brezhnev Doctrine? 

The author seems to have internalized the Brezhnev Doctrine that stated once you go Soviet-controlled, you never go back. The Nation holds this is an inviolable law even after the communist state that established the rule of perpetual control ceased to exist. There is no freedom to associate once you are embraced by the Soviets or their Russian successors. That's amazing.

Ukraine (and not just this year) and Georgia have experienced the joys of that status. Sweden and Finland (once part of the Russian Empire, don't forget) applied this year because Russian territorial ambitions suddenly became hard to ignore.

Russian hostility under Putin is mindbogglingly stupid when you consider that while it would be nice for America if Russia was our friend, Russia really needs America as a friend to secure Russia's western border and pivot east. Where the real threat to Russian territory is.

Stop making excuses for Putin's Russia. Putin decided to reject the West when the West was eager for a post-Cold War peace dividend and continental European states wanted to complete their disarmament. 

And the Treaty of Versailles charge is wrong in its very premise.

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Interesting Again

As Russia's military power waned and its offensive sputtered, the war seemed to wind down as Ukraine held on, trained new troops, and accepted Western-supplied weapons. The campaign got boring.* It is getting more interesting.

As Ukraine began to integrate and use longer-range Western artillery, particularly Western rocket artillery such as HIMARS, things got more interesting. Just as Russia has seen their army bloodied and shaken. And reports of a long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kherson front stirred. Just as Russia's focused and intense offensive on the Donbas front has seemingly exhausted its capacity to significantly advance for now.

The war seemed to be tipping--however slightly--in Ukraine's favor.

Thus far I haven't seen much in the way of major Ukrainian attacks on the Kherson front. Either Ukraine is still in the early stage, probing to find weak points on the front to focus a major attack on; there is no offensive outside of rhetoric; or we aren't seeing what is happening on the ground. Ukraine has reason to hide that. Russian commanders have reason to hide that from Putin. But as time passed the last explanation lost credibility.

But things are happening. Strategypage reports:

In the south (Kherson province, bordering Crimea) Russia has begun withdrawing troops, but not their heavy weapons across the Dnieper River. Ukraine has used its HIMARs missiles to disable or destroy all four bridges across the Dnieper (Dnipro) river and keep them unusable for anything but pedestrians and light vehicles since the 10th. This denies vital supplies to the twenty thousand Russian troops facing Ukrainian forces. Without fuel or heavy equipment (tanks, IFVs and artillery) replacements the Russian troops cannot attack, or effectively defend against the Ukrainian offensive. Already the Ukrainians are receiving less artillery fire from Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnieper River. There is less activity from Russian armor. If the Ukrainians can keep those bridges disabled, Russia will be forced to withdraw their troops to the left bank of the river, leaving the Ukrainians with a major win. That withdrawal process has begun, with headquarters personnel recently crossing.

As ISW notes:

Attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnipro River.

At some point, Ukraine may have interrupted lines of supply and identified weak points in the Russian lines. The battlefield will be "shaped" and then a counteroffensive can begin in earnest. We may then find out if Ukraine has built a new army formation based on new recruits since the invasion, leavened by combat veteran cadres from the ground forces that held the line.

Say, here's news on that issue:

As Ukraine goes on the offensive, they have organized tank brigades, something they have not used during the first six months of their war with Russia. The Ukrainian armor units are equipped with tanks superior to what the Russians are currently using.

And the latest American arms commitment includes mine-clearing equipment and demolitions munitions handy for clearing mines and obstacles for attackers.

Will Russia pull back successfully across the Dnieper River rather than face those brigades? Or will Ukraine launch an attack that bags thousands of Russian troops by pushing them against a river that they can't cross?

And if Ukraine reaches the river, will it be able to press on by crossing the river and sustaining an offensive toward Crimea and Melitipol?

Or Will Ukraine use the river line to more efficiently hold the line there and conduct a second offensive south from Zaporizhzhya toward Melitipol and through to the Sea of Azov to split Russia's southern holdings? Which would allow Ukraine to strike east or west to outflank and roll up Russian lines.

This report of Russian logistics problems beyond the river is interesting:

The rail situation in the south may be getting a little precarious for the Russians, with the rails and bridges going from Crimea to the provinces north of there mostly being interdicted.  

If Ukraine can continue to interrupt lines of supply in and around Crimea, that makes the Russia position on the east bank of the river precarious from either a Ukrainian river crossing or an attack south from Zaporizhzhya.

As long as the Ukrainian offensive beats the mud season, of course.

Interesting.

UPDATE: The Russians know why their initial invasion failed, but have no solutions; Russia's political scene is rumbling; and:

The Ukrainians are preparing major offensive operations that seek to expel all Russian forces from Ukraine. This puts Russia in a difficult position because loss of all its Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, in addition to its heavy losses in men and material, would be a disastrous regime-ending military and political defeat. 

There's been a lot of talk of the big push but little is apparent so far. Hopefully Ukraine is using the time more effectively than Russia is. Apparently, the big push will get big only over time.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Well that's interesting:

Russian authorities are deploying security forces to Luhansk Oblast likely in response to waning support for the war and growing unwillingness to fight among Luhansk residents.

If Russia has to divert troops to keep its Luhansk puppet fighting, that is a situation that subtracts combat power from the war. Both Russian and Luhansk puppet forces.

UPDATE: The biggest American arms package yet:

The $3 billion package will be the largest single chunk of the total of $13.7 billion the United States has U.S. announced since Russia’s February invasion. It will contain ammunition in amounts “we’ve never seen before” in the effort to help Ukraine fight off the invaders, the official said.

Lots of ammunition. Which is useful for offensive operations. Just saying. 

UPDATE: The DOD summary of the aid package.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

*From a military assessment point of view, the map has been pretty static. This is not to minimize the casualties every day and Russia's continuing war crimes. Nor does it imply important things aren't happening beneath the surface of a static front line.

Weekend Data Dump

Russia's ground forces are a mixed up bag of various types of forces from different commands now. But does the Izyum area concentration of volunteer units suggest a low priority front? Or is it where the cannon fodder for an offensive are being sent? The Russians do seem to be conducting more attacks, even though they don't take much ground. Is this the end of Russia's pause? Or is this activity to allow the pause to be completed?

Ukrainian artillery hit a Wagner Group headquarters in the east. The Wagner Group is getting a reputation for being effective in Russia. And for war crimes in the West.

At-sea Navy resupply. The Chinese are following that lead.

I've noted that the Chinese military isn't as good as its shiny new weapons portray. So how good are the troops using that stuff? But honestly, I'm worried our military leadership is undermining our quality. I just hope our problems are fewer than any enemy's problems.

The watermelons would rather overthrow democracy and capitalism than achieve green energy. Tip to Instapundit.

Iran blames Rushdie for being assaulted. He did write kind of slutty, you know.

This time, for sure! Hopefully the talks about aid for no nukes drag on. The race is longer than I expected.

Israel struck Syrian air defenses and probable Iranian assets inside Syria. Iran wants its own proxies on Israel's border and Russia is no longer working to push Iran out.

The cited study says mask mandates didn't work to stop the Xi Jinping Flu--not that masks didn't work. FFS, that information is in the quote. I agree mandates are useless. I'd use masks based on my evaluation of the threat without a mandate. And mandates without apparent need won't be obeyed. Again, masks "work" to buy time against infection, with the variables of type of mask, skill in using a mask, and time in danger areas affecting how much. Eventually all masks will "fail".

A peek into how Iran smuggles arms to the Houthi in Yemen.

Remember, no White House mention of the Islamist virtual death sentence by Iran that Rushdie has lived under for the last 30+ years. Because Democrats looove the mullahs.

A year ago, Biden's clusterfuck of poor Afghanistan decisions finally gave the Taliban victory.

Ukraine can go after Russian air defense systems with their American-provided air-launched anti-radiation missiles. When do the Russians turn off their radars to avoid them? Making them useless, of course. 

The Missile Defense Agency named defending CONUS and Guam as priorities, as well as dealing with hypersonic missile threats. Good.

Two Zumwalt-class destroyers will get hypersonic missiles. Think of them as test beds with secondary combat capabilities.

Prosecute the man. Government institutions are forfeiting trust. But we still have elections as the proper response.

Huh: "The Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday said sabotage was behind an explosion at a military depot in the Dzhankoy region of Crimea, the RIA news agency reported."

FFS, dispersing ammunition stockpiles is not a "secret" tactic the Russians are using to counter HIMARS strikes. 

The Corps Diplomatique Terrestrienne State Department really needs an "America desk": "State Department spokesperson Ned Price claimed on Monday that the U.S. is 'in a stronger position as a country' today because of President Biden’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan one year ago."

Is Russia massing [S-300, I assume] anti-aircraft missiles in Belarus for a massive missile strike on Ukraine in the coming weeks? Russia is using those SAMS as surface-to-surface missiles. Might it be a big effort to hit supply lines coming out of Poland?

I guess the Navy is really, really sure it won't have to fight China any time soon: "The Navy wants to shed 39 ships in Fiscal Year 2023, with the first ship set to depart on Halloween."

If they get away with this, the next divisive bill will be called The Save the Puppies and Kittens Act: "Did you notice how the Dems called it the Inflation Reduction Act, right up until the moment it passed? Now it’s a 'climate, health care, and tax bill.'" 

The Philippines may buy American Chinook helicopter after canceling a purchase of Russian helicopters for "combat, search and rescue operations, and medical evacuations[.]" I think they'd be great for island resupply missions to negate Chinese blockades.

FFS, why?? "A group of German air force fighter jets landed in Singapore on Tuesday as part of a marathon bid to fly them some 12,800 kilometers (8,000 miles) from their home base to Southeast Asia in just 24 hours." Just focus on controlling the Baltic Sea and capturing Kaliningrad if the Russians get all stupid! 

Honest to God, more and more I understand why Maoist Red Guards sent university professors to the rice paddies to do useful work. (video)

LOL! "Russian President Vladimir Putin touted his country's arsenal of weapons on Monday and said they are significantly more advanced than those of his rivals." Seriously.

Somebody launched a drone attack on American forces near al-Tanf inside Syria. It failed. What happens when an attack kills Americans?

The battle for the terror tunnels continues along the Gaza-Israel border. 

Another explosion in Crimea, in addition to the arms depot blast (and in addition to the airfield attack).

Nigeria loses to corruption again. Rule of law is good.

Will Zawahiri's replacement be competent?

What America left behind in Afghanistan. Not all the weapons worked or could be used. But it could be sold. Or stolen. I hope our CIA is on the job trying to get the crucial stuff. With any luck, Afghan corruption means much of that stuff is already arming the resistance to the Taliban.

Does renewed violence on the border of Congo and Rwanda telegraph ethnic violence atrocities on a massive scale as happened during the Clinton administration? Burundi is the first East African Community member to send troops to Congo to tamp this down.

U.S. and Canadian researchers recreated the 1918 Spanish Flu virus. This is bad. Not because that group did it. but because it shows that others could have done it already or might in the future. But more broadly, this type of research conducted because of fear of what others might do is dangerous. Tip to Instapundit.

I suppose eventually India's defense industry will make good weapons to stop China. But so far it is just a money pit for bad execution. So I'm skeptical of this claim. Yet I can't deny that building their own is eventually better than buying from abroad. Will China give India that time?

At some level I'm pleased that the parents are getting what they voted for. I guess they thought their money would insulate them from the consequences. Tip to Instapundit.

Army recruiting is bad in part because its leaders hate its recruit base: "we now have a Department of Defense [DoD] that has taken various political positions that are very much opposed to the heart of America." As I've observed:

"Free" Canadian health care can be taken away by the whim of the government based on your behavior. That's not "free." So much for being a "right." Tip to Instapundit.

The U.S. tested an ICBM, but the test was “not the result of current world events[.]” Personally, I like the message we're always ready to nuke enemies regardless of what they are doing at the moment. Via Instapundit.

Even if the Army isn't woke, that is the perception and the military is not countering that image of leftist corruption. As I've said, there are other reason. Including MHS Genesis, which I never heard of, which essentially disqualifies recruits with information the Army never had before about the recruits. So much for don't ask, don't tell. Via Instapundit.

If you want the technical term, the Chinese are acting like "assholes."

Ukrainians are using drones much more effectively than the Russians. Will Iran simply be embarrassed by how Russia uses the drones Iran is providing?

Victor Hanson writes about the leftist civil war porn they're peddling. Exactly.

We need expanded shipyards to compete with China in a war at sea: "Despite the lack of specifics, shipyards in the Gulf Coast have quietly mounted extensive capital expansion efforts for new construction and repair work as D.C. hammers out the plans for the future fleet."

Gosh! I didn't think I'd need to act on my virtues that I'd signaled! Thank God those lawn signs aren't legally binding contracts, eh? Tip to Instapundit.

I've long said that I don't know if global warming is taking place, if mankind has the decisive impact if it is, and if it is actually bad on balance. What I do know is that I don't trust the so-called solutions to the problem that the global warming activists propose. They're just one more group of wannabe autocrats who promise to save us from ... something.

The idea that India doesn't want to be America's "ally" any more is silly. India is a potential lever to pry Russia away from China.

Turkey spent a dozen years pushing its defense partner Israel away. Never mind. I guess Russia and Iran didn't turn out to be solid alternatives. Perhaps taking a break in our relationship is finally working. Related? CRS brief on Turkish-U.S. relations.

Will China's flag follow its trade to Pakistan and Afghanistan?

It's always something, eh?  

China continues to destroy the embers of freedom in Hong Kong. Tip to Instapundit.

The West encourages Islamist rage within the West (via Instapundit). Why do we hate us?

Ted Galen Carpenter never met a foreign policy threat that can't be solved by America retreating. China would absolutely accept an "Austria" solution for Taiwan that declared Taiwan a neutral entity. And just as soon as that "solution" broke America-Taiwan defense ties and undermined Taiwan's ability and will to resist, China would attack Taiwan and take it.

South Korea's president has decided on an "audacious initiative" to solve the North Korea problem: Give North Korea lots of money in exchange for North Korea giving up nukes. Sadly, this strategy has been tried again and again with only half of the solution taking hold. North Korea always accepts the money.

I have no problem with saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was driven in part by fear for the security of Moscow, despite the lack of a current threat. And Friedman basically says the West doesn't need to go along with that fear because the West has its own worries about Russia. My problem is that too many in the West accept Russia's reasons as justification for letting Russia get away with its aggression.

Is Putin so indispensable to Russia's corrupt power elite that there is no threat to Putin's rule? Sounds plausible. I've read similar thoughts. Of course, if Putin goes getting an end to the war is only one possible result. Someone worse than Putin might take power, eh? On the bright side, Putin is unlikely to fire senior commanders until he gets someone good enough to win because that kind of competence and glory would be a threat to Putin. And defeat would absolutely be a threat to Putin.

Why is Macron's EU policy failing? Funny, the article pretty much admits he is using crises to advance EU integration--that is, stripping the prefix from the proto-imperial EU project. With Macron sitting on the throne, of course. As that article argues, "Macron’s European policy suffers from three fundamental ills: It is vague, unilateral, and self-serving." To be fair, it has to be vague to hide it's true purpose of yoking Europe to Macron's glory. Putin isn't the only one with dreams of dominating Europe.

Is the James Webb orbiting telescope undermining the Big Bang theory? Yikes.

Explosions inside Russia at Belgorod and inside Russian-occupied Crimea. But are the Russians flinching from shadows? Still, it might be a Doolittle Raid-style operation.

The only emergency is that the government doesn't want to give up its pandemic powers.

It disturbs me that conservatives have joined the "we were lied into war" anti-war line about the Iraq War. There were no lies. Just the unfortunate decision to rest the public case for war on one thing thought to be a "slam dunk" as the CIA said rather than on the multiple reasons for destroying the Saddam regime. Remember, Democrats believed Saddam had WMD before the war. Based on the same intelligence Republicans saw. And try to remember we didn't have an obligation to find the WMD components in a game of hide and seek. Saddam was required to account for all of it. He violated the ceasefire just by failing to prove he had nothing. Although I still wonder what information will come out to clarify what the status was when we invaded. Sometimes amazing information comes out long after a war is over. Saddam at least had the ability to restart chemical weapons production quickly. And while I'm at it, yes, we won the war. As long as we don't decide to walk away like we did in Afghanistan a year ago and hand enemies a victory. And God help us, it looks like we might.

Leave the hot prime minister alone. She drinks less than Churchill did and dances more. So what? Tip to Instapundit.

The global population will peak, decline, and age this century, following the path set by advanced countries. Would anything reverse declining birth rates? Via Instapundit.

American special forces will have their own propeller-driven ground support aircraft. So basically armed drones with pilots.

Russia will halt for three days natural gas exports to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for "maintenance." 

Ukraine appears to be probing/harassing Russian forces in Crimea with small drones that don't seem to be doing much damage.

A judge has temporarily nullified Michigan's suddenly not-dormant anti-abortion law. Apparently the governor wants time to sue to eliminate the statutes. I have real problems with this on a rule-of-law basis. Pro-abortion legislators had many decades to repeal those statutes. They did not. Now the courts are going to rewrite the statutes for political convenience? How is this even possible? I'm not even saying the statutes as written should remain as they are. But they exist!

A proposal to use American "boneyard" fighters for armed drones for dangerous missions. Ten years ago I suggested Israel might follow that path to generate an effective strike package for use against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Wanting that is nice. Doing is harder: "As the U.S. Navy moves to field 10 new or modernized ship classes in the next decade, the head of the surface navy is considering how to get these ships and their more lethal capabilities deployed faster." The more time in port, the more time an enemy has to strike the ships.

The U.S. creates an estimated 13 more good jihadis in Somalia.

Credentials skyrocket while actual skills decline.

Ukrainians are happy the Russians don't adapt well at war: "But they have nuclear weapons. Russia is like a monkey with a hand grenade." Indeed. 

Our nearly NATO allies Finland and Sweden don't suck. They have good and technologically advanced but small forces. The Finns have a large reserve army and Sweden could use that. And they have useful geography. 

The Week in Pictures.

HARM in Ukraine's air force.

Is it really a mystery why the Americans most likely to enlist to be military officers are not enlisting in an organization that seemingly looks at them with suspicion? But I could be biased. I await future years to see if one-time or other factors are mostly to blame.

Jihadis on a killing rampage in Somalia. We wouldn't care nearly as much if the jihadis were content to slaughter other Moslems. But inevitably they all set their sights on the West for more satisfying targets. 

Ukraine would have to deny it, given it went very wrong from the intended target: "A Ukrainian official on Sunday denied involvement in the car bombing death of the daughter of a Putin ally." I have no idea who did it. It's a bigger deal if internal forces did this inside Russia.

Did somebody give Ukraine ATACMS longer-range missiles for the HIMARS Ukraine has to attack that Crimea airfield? I wouldn't rule that out. But I also wouldn't rule out that Ukraine built a missile. Or adapted older model SAMs for a long-range ground attack rocket. During the Persian Gulf War, Iraq modified missiles to reach Israel. After losing that war, Iraq modified SAMs to evade prohibition on surface-to-surface missile imports. Ukraine would do a better job.