Monday, September 27, 2021

At the Intersection of Inattention and Beirut

Is America willing to have soldiers die to achieve missions in eastern Syria? I've been asking that for several years.

Excellent point:

It is long past time for President Joe Biden’s administration to figure out what exactly American troops in Syria need to accomplish and how they can leave without leaving Kurdish allies on the ground to be slaughtered. As long as the mission drifts aimlessly, there is a very real risk that U.S. troops could be drawn into a catastrophic situation, such as the 2017 ambush in Niger that left four brave American soldiers dead, or the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 service members. 

It is a point I've made for a while, including recently:

America has no more than a thousand troops in Syria along with allied troops who support local friends. Are we willing to fight and die in Syria? After our Afghanistan skedaddle debacle it is more urgent to answer that question. 

And as I observed in another post:

I was uncomfortable with American troops in eastern Syria post-ISIL caliphate mission without an idea of what they would do despite our interest in protecting the Kurds who fought with us, our interest in blocking Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah, and our interest in preventing eastern Syria from being a sanctuary for jihadis to threaten Iraq.

I was uncomfortable because we could face an attack that leads to a large loss of American lives that prompts a rapid retreat and defeat that encourages enemies. See the Marines Beirut Barracks bombing and the Battle of Mogadishu for examples of that worry. 

We aren't trying to overthrow Assad, which means he is free to take the initiative and come after our troops.

We have real objectives in eastern Syria. Keeping ISIL down (assuming they don't shift to Afghanistan now), screening Iraq from jihadi infiltration, interfering with Iran's efforts to embed in Syria, and protecting Kurds are interests. 

But unless we are told why our troops should die to achieve those things, the first time we suffer sizable casualties there we will see calls for immediate withdrawal. And making the arguments will be too late.

UPDATE: Here we go:

Syria's foreign minister on Monday vowed to drive U.S. troops out of his country if they do not leave voluntarily.

But it will be a "surprise" when the Syrians kill a lot of American troops to achieve that objective.